So it looks like a pattern is beginning to emerge; the people that write for Who Gives a Hoot are more knowledgeable than those that talk on Who Gives a Hoot. Rich (who took “all or nothing” to heart last week) and I have already lapped Luke and Ben, and Ryan is not able to shake off Liam because it is in the stars that Liam will hit at least one exacto each week.

By the way, what do we think of ‘exacto‘? It’s the term that we’ve been using for exact predictions. I’m not sure I’m a fan of it, but the term has been used whenever somebody hits one on the nose. We don’t know what term everyone uses, obviously, because Ben and Luke have yet to hit one exact. Stay tuned.

Will any of us be on an island this week? Last week, we had three examples of what we’re referring to as “island picks”, where one person is alone in a general result (not just a specific score). We’ve had eight island picks so far this year, and my selection of Madison beating North Carolina is the only one to hit so far. Four matches only to select from this weekend, so here we go.

Here is last week’s recap:

	Ben	Jon	Liam	Luke	Rich	Riley	Ryan
New England II 0-1 Omaha	1 pt	0 pts	1 pt	0 pts	3 pts	3 pts	1 pt
Madison 1-0 North Carolina	0 pts	1 pt	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts
Greenville 1-1 Omaha	0 pts	2 pts	3 pts	0 pts	3 pts	0 pts	3 pts
North Texas 2-1 Tormenta	0 pts	1 pt	1 pt	1 pt	3 pts	0 pts	0 pts
Fort Lauderdale 5-1 Tucson	1 pt	1 pt	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	1 pt
New England II 2-2 Chattanooga	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts
Total	2 pts	5 pts	5 pts	1 pt	9 pts	3 pts	5 pts

	Record	Points
Rich	11-9	19
Jon	11-9	16
Ryan	10-10	14
Liam	8-12	14
Riley	8-12	10
Ben	7-13	7
Luke	7-13	7

Here are the predictions for week 7:

	Ben	Jon	Liam	Luke	Rich	Riley	Ryan
Richmond Kickers v. North Carolina FC (Saturday, 18:30)	2-0	1-1	2-1	1-0	2-0	1-1	2-0
Chattanooga Red Wolves v. Fort Lauderdale CF (Saturday, 19:00)	1-2	2-1	1-2	1-2	1-2	2-1	2-1
South Georgia Tormenta v. Greenville Triumph (Saturday, 19:00)	0-1	0-1	0-1	0-2	0-2	1-1	0-1
Toronto FC II v. North Texas SC (Saturday, 22:00)	2-2	1-2	0-3	1-3	1-2	1-2	0-3

            The schedule was released and then came the announcement of the nationally-televised broadcast.  The match between Union Omaha and Greenville Triumph had already been circled on many calendars, but then add a first-ever national broadcast for the league?  I don’t know about you, but I used the rest of the ink circling last Sunday on the calendar.

            Both teams began the day with identical records and would end the day with identical records, as well.  After a strong showing by both clubs, the match finished 1-1.  Greenville opened the scoring in the 35^th minute when Marios Lomis was able to capitalize off of a turnover forced by Andrew Booth.  Union Omaha fans would have to wait until the 59^th minute for an equalizer.  When a corner-fed ball was cleared from the box, Conor Doyle was able to get it to Nicolas Firmino, who took the ball of his chest and volleyed it masterfully into the lower corner and past goalkeeper Dallas Jaye.  The draw keeps the teams tied for first in the league, based on points.

            It was a beautiful day in Greenville, South Carolina.  It didn’t matter that the sun was out because there was already a metaphorical spotlight on Legacy Early College Field.  With cameras from ESPN focused on the field, fans eagerly awaited the kickoff of this budding rivalry.  The teams had only faced each other once prior to Sunday, but the level of quality in that match, combined with the end-of-season placements of first and second place, produced several storylines that made this matchup appealing.  With the hype surrounding the match, a sellout crowd of just over 2,000 filled the stands in Legacy Early College Field to watch the spectacle take place.

            Even from the opening whistle, it was clear that most of the battles were going to take place in the middle third of the field.  Greenville did a great job of solving that problem right away when they spread the team across the field.  It opened up passing lanes and created problems for Union Omaha because the players had to travel much further in order to simply contest the ball.  The home team was confident with the ball, splitting the defense, and playing long balls.  While they didn’t move down the field quickly, they were highly organized and their build-up play was very attractive.

            On the flip side, Union Omaha slammed their foot on the gas pedal from the opening kickoff and looked to immediately throw Greenville on their heels.  They were able to disrupt some of the play, especially in the middle third, but the team had to quickly switch their tactic to occupy more space.  This was a tall task to complete because Greenville routinely pressed numbers up the field when they had the ball.  Covering the ever-present threat would present many issues to Union Omaha for the entire 90 minutes.

            On offense, Union Omaha looked to move quickly up the field.  Having played on the large fields they have in recent weeks, the Owls looked comfortable attempting long balls and passes.  There were plenty of limited touches before passes mixed in with dribbles going right at the defense.  The team looked hard set on taking the ball up the field in an almost rugby fashion: fast and in your face.  In typical Greenville defensive fashion, they were successful at getting numbers behind the ball and closing down passing lanes in their own final third.  When Union Omaha pressed into their final third, Greenville seemed to set their defensive backline at the 18-yard box and the midfield was less than five yards in front of that line.  Whichever side of the field the ball was on, the players swarmed to the ball, leaving Union Omaha players little choice but to look for a drop pass.

            A huge piece of Greenville’s success throughout the entire match was their midfield.  Center mid Maxwell Hemmings had good field vision and showed confidence with passes splitting the defense.  He caused a lot of problems for Union Omaha with his weighted passes linking up to the front men.  Left mid Don Smart displayed situational intelligence because he would recognize the space available in the middle and float inside to present a new source of pressure for the Omaha defense.  Noah Pilato, fellow center mid to Maxwell Hemmings, was given the heavy task of replacing Aaron Walker, who missed the match due to a lingering injury.  Walker has been an integral piece of Greenville’s midfield, but Pilato did a good job of filling in and varying the attacks from side to side.  Right midfielder Andrew Booth showed great creativity with his possessions and runs.  Booth continued to be a large problem throughout the entire match and presented a lot of problems on the right side.

            Union Omaha had some good opportunities in the first half, but couldn’t seem to take full advantage of any of the moments.  In the 8^th minute, Dami Viader was able to advance up the field and into Greenville’s final third, but was soon surrounded with pressure and had no options for escape.  The very next minute, Omaha switched up the attack and gave Ferrety Sousa a chance to show his offensive chops.  He may be a defender, but the man has some good moves in his arsenal to get himself past a level or two, attract more defensive players, and open up chances in the box.  Sousa could often be seen pairing up with Devin Boyce and causing trouble for defensive players.  The two players have good chemistry on the right side, like to dribble at defenses, and vary up their attacks together.

            About halfway through the first half, it looked as though Union Omaha was mirroring Greenville’s defensive setup.  With the Triumph entering the final third time and time again, Union Omaha seemed to be condensing the space between the backline and the midfielders.  It limited Greenville’s possession inside the penalty area, but opened up a lot of space for their midfielders to move the ball and develop an attack outside of the box.  Greenville was already exercising patience on the ball, so to give them even more time and space in front of the net resulted in some scary attempts on goal.  Rashid Nuhu faced six shots in the first half and many of those made him get to the ground quickly or diving to the side or up high to cover the uprights and crossbar.  He had one easy save, thanks to Ferrety Sousa’s pressure and shepherding along the goal line.  Of the six shots he faced, only one found the net.

            In the 35^th minute, Emir Alihodžić received a pass halfway into the Union Omaha half and before he could make sense of what was happening, Greenville’s Andrew Booth was there to make contact with Emir, force a turnover, and complete a pass to teammate Marios Lomis.  Streaking toward the goal, Lomis took a touch, caught an advancing Illal Osumanu off balance, and sent the ball to the far post and into the goal.  It was an unfortunate moment for Union Omaha, who had been bending with each attack and not breaking.  This was the first goal that Omaha had conceded in the 2021 USL League One season.

            There was an appeal from Greenville fans for a second goal just before the halftime whistle, but head referee Elton García didn’t even engage in a debate about the situation.  In the 43^rd minute, a high ball was falling into the goal area and Rashid Nuhu confidently jumped to collect the 50/50 ball.  When Nuhu came down, he was slightly off balance and did a 360° turn while standing over the goal line.  The Greenville fans behind the net were boisterous and adamant of the goal, but upon replay, there was very little chance that the entire ball ever crossed the goal line.  On top of that, USL League One does not employ VAR (Video Assistant Referee) to help with such decisions.  When García initially shook off the possibility of a goal, that was the end of the discussion.  Minutes later, he blew the whistle for halftime and the teams headed to their respective locker rooms.

            At the start of the second half, Union Omaha made their first substitution: Nicolas Firmino entered the game and replaced Emir Alihodžić.  This wasn’t a big surprise because Alihodžić unbalanced the midfield at several points in the first half.  While many of the players were quick to advance up the field, Alihodžić was more apt to sit back and play a more defensive midfielder role.  This might have been part of the plan, but given the fact that Union Omaha head coach Jay Mims likes to play flat 4-4-2’s, I don’t think having a defensive midfielder was in the game plan.

            Union Omaha took advantage of the second half kickoff and did a great job of establishing a slower, cognitive possession.  In the initial possession, most of the players were included in the possession, which was a positive change from the first half.  Teams that are able to establish possession and incorporate a lot of players have an easier time disrupting the opponent’s defense.  This tactic also increases the confidence of the possessing team’s backline.  In many of Omaha’s previous matches, the defense looked confident at playing out of the back.  Against Greenville, the defense opted for clearances more often than not in the first half, so the initial possession in the second half was a crucial point in changing the team’s mentality.

            Greenville came out in the second half looking almost apprehensive.  Having controlled the pace of the first half, it was surprising to see the Triumph hesitate a couple of times.  The Triumph had a great scoring chance in the 48^th minute, when Union Omaha’s Daltyn Knutson made a poor pass and Greenville’s Lachlan McLean pounced on the opportunity.  Omaha goalkeeper Rashid Nuhu was able save the shot, but the Triumph was able to give Omaha quite the scare just after the start of the second half.

            Union Omaha continued to show good chemistry in the second half.  This time, it was left back Dami Viader and Evan Conway causing trouble.  As both advanced up the field, they started collecting more opportunities to battle with Greenville’s Andrew Booth.  Meanwhile, Omaha right back Ferrety Sousa seemed to receive more creative license on offense.  On several occasions, Sousa floated toward the middle of the field and used his possession to find different passing lanes to encourage the offense.  The halftime change to bring on Nicolas Firmino was a good decision because his introduction to the second half spurred a new level of aggressiveness and ferocity in the middle of the field, one that wasn’t quite there in the first half.  His natural inclination to advance up the field resulted in good chemistry with JP Scearce and the two worked well to open up the defense.  In the 58^th minute, Devin Boyce did a great job to evade defenders and find Conor Doyle in space.  His feed across the goal was deflected by a defender and almost gave Evan Conway an easy tap-in, but it was just out of reach.  Omaha fans wouldn’t have to wait long for the score to even out.

            On the ensuing corner kick, Devin Boyce lobbed the ball to the back post, where plenty of bodies were there to fight for the next touch.  Eventually, the ball was softly cleared out of the penalty area and right to Conor Doyle, who head the ball to Nic Firmino.  Standing in the middle of the field, at the top of the penalty arc, Firmino received the header from Doyle off his chest, and volleyed the ball with perfect execution on frame.  He had two defenders rushing him and found just enough time to perfectly balance the power and placement of his shot.  Greenville’s goalkeeper, Dallas Jaye, had absolutely no chance of defending Firmino’s work of art.  Jaye was Goalkeeper of the Year for the USL League One in 2019 and 2020, so it was going to take something special to beat him.  Firmino’s shot was that and more.

            With all of the hard work that Union Omaha was doing to breakdown Greenville’s defense, you would think Omaha would break their own streak, but the Owls couldn’t even do that on this particular Sunday.  In the three goals scored against Greenville, Union Omaha has never scored a goal from inside the penalty area.  Every goal scored by an Owl has come from outside of the 18-yard box.  It’s crazy to think about, but Greenville has a very disciplined backline, anchored by the 2020 USL League One Defender of the Year, Brandon Fricke.

            Greenville had their share of quality attacks in the second half, as well.  In the first half, the team tried to balance their attacks, but the second half offensive strategy seemed almost entirely based out of production on the right side.  With Andrew Booth linking up with JJ Donnelly, Union Omaha was facing a lot of pressure, albeit one-dimensional.  When the Triumph took their time and swung the ball, the team still preferred to build up their attacks on the right side.

            The rest of the second half featured sporadic attacks, but both teams seemed happy to close out the match with a draw.  Union Omaha looked much better in the second half as they controlled the pace more than Greenville, found ways to advance numbers up the field, and generate chances on goal.  Omaha had a number of turnovers, forced and unforced, and could’ve done a better job of condensing the team to fill in gaps between Greenville players.  Communication could’ve been a little better as players received passes with unexpected pressure, players should’ve filled in for advancing players, and organizing the offense in general.  On the whole, leaving Greenville, South Carolina with a point is something to be happy about.

            With the draw, both clubs remain tied at the top of the standings.  The next time these two teams face off will be at Werner Park on Saturday, October 9^th.  Greenville’s next match is on Saturday, May 22^nd as they head to South Georgia Tormenta.  Kickoff is scheduled for 6 PM (CST) and will air on ESPN+.  Union Omaha visits Forward Madison on Wednesday, May 26^th and kickoff is slated for 7 PM (CST).  As usual, the match will also air on ESPN+.

            Keep visiting Who Gives A Hoot Media for more content like this, data breakdowns, and podcast episodes every week.  We’ll keep you updated on what’s happening within Union Omaha, as well as developments around the league.

Well, the belt is still ours. And while that is sort of all that matters, there are a few very interesting things worth looking into following our match against the Triumph on Sunday. Let’s dive in.

1) No backline rotation.

The disastrous affects of rotating our backline last year looms large in my memory. In researching for this column, I learned it weighs so heavily on me, it has distorted that memory. Below is a chart of our backline on the 3 occasions in club history where we played 3 matches in a 10 day period.

Date	Home	Away	UO Result	RB	RCB	LCB	LB
9/6/2020	Union Omaha	Orlando City B	Win	Hauswirth	Osumanu	Crull	Viader
9/11/2020	Tormenta	Union Omaha	Draw	Hauswirth*	Osumanu	Crull*	Viader
9/15/2020	Red Wolves	Union Omaha	Loss	Hauswirth	Aune	Knutson	Viader*
9/19/2020	Union Omaha	NE Revs II	Loss	Hauswirth^	Aune	Osumanu	Crull
9/26/2020	Union Omaha	Kickers	Loss	Sousa	Osumanu	Knutson	Crull
9/30/2020	Lauderdale	Union Omaha	Win	Sousa	Osumanu	Knutson	Crull
10/3/2020	Union Omaha	Tormenta	Win	Sousa	Osumanu	Knutson	Crull
SZN #2
5/7/2021	Fort Lauderdale	Union Omaha	Win	Sousa	Osumanu	Knutson	Viader
5/12/2021	NE Revs II	Union Omaha	Win	Sousa	Osumanu	Knutson	Viader
5/16/2021	Triumph	Union Omaha	Draw	Sousa	Osumanu	Knutson	Viader

So, intended to write about how I was glad Jay had learned his lesson about backline rotation in the off-season, but it sure seems like he learned that last year. I’m glad he did. Rotating our backline was a recipe for disaster in the past. (Not mentioned is the rotated backline that coughed up our ugliest goal of 2020 in our game at North Texas last year.) We should avoid doing it as much as possible. Especially early in the season.

Speaking of ugly goals, how about that one we gave up to Greenville. Ideally, that will be the ugly goal of the season for us. That goal was an excellent example of one of my favorite concepts: cascading failure. Each player could have done more to prevent that goal, but it is interesting that it took 3 players making small mistakes to give up a goal. Bodes well for the season.

2) Did Ferrety Sousa put Don Smart in witness protection?

Sweet mercy, I can’t remember the last soccer game I watched where an attacking players switched sides to get out of a defensive assignment. It doesn’t show up in the stats for Ferrety, but look at this sequence of overlapping play with Devin Boyce.

Ferrety had himself a game, leading the team in successful dribbles, completed crosses, and chances created, while finishing 2nd in passes.

Really an excellent game all around! Maybe even a man of the match performance.

3) Nick Firmino loves the ball.

Our midfield is so deep that Christian Molina (2 goals, 1 assist in 418′ of play last year, one game winning goal, one game winning assist, one banger in Greenville) has played 21′ all season, Devin Boyce who played in the middle and up top last year is on the wing, Austin Panchot (also a midfielder) is starting at forward, and all of this is with Tobi injured!

All of that is before you get to Nick Firmino, man of the match. Nick was pitched to me as a “depth” signing, but he seems far from it so far. The ball is drawn to him. He’s has so many passes when he’s on the field and we only really focus on the highlight moments.

Obviously, his 2nd half appearance made a big difference for us in the Greenville game. But did you know he 39 passes in the half, right between the number of passes that Illal (39) and Dalytn (43) had for the whole game.

To get an apples to apples comparison, I’ve calculated passes per minute for our top 3 passers by sheer volume:
Dami: 0.364 passes per minute
Ferrety: 0.328 passes per minute
Illal: 0.328 passes per minute

Okay those guys are all defenders and providing lots and lots of key contributions to our team. Here is Nick’s:
Nick Firmino: 0.507 passes per minute

Put another way, Nick Firmino has a touch every other minute he is on the pitch. The league leader in passes, Ethan Hardin of Ft Lauderdale, has a rate of: 0.644 passes per minute. But, and this is a significant but, Ft Lauderdale averages 412.5 passes per game compared to our 369.25.

Also, that was a great goal by Firmino to rescue the draw. Pretty big deal considering Greenville had twice the rest and none of the travel we did, and had 7 chances above 0.1 xG while we had 0. Thank goodness for our defense and thank goodness for Nick Firmino’s brilliance.

As I shouted for the entire year last year…@USLLeagueOne is a bangers only league!!! #USL pic.twitter.com/V63LZXzwKd

— Jason Weintraub (@HomeSweetSoccer) May 16, 2021

Quick aside, why are the camera’s so bad in League One? You can’t even see the ball go into the net because it washes out. Good thing it counts just the same and the belt remains where it belongs. See you after our next game which takes place in a historic baseball stadium in Wisconsin.

            It was the Championship that never happened.  Union Omaha and Greenville were set play the 2020 USL League One Championship when COVID-19 came crashing into the world like the Kool-Aid Man.  With the Championship cancelled, Union Omaha stayed home empty handed and Greenville was announced as the 2020 USL League One Champion. 

            Sunday’s match will take place at Legacy Early College Field in Greenville, South Carolina.  Kickoff is slated for 3 PM (CST) and will air on ESPN2.  The national telecast was announced back on April 17^th and will be the first time that USL League One has had a match featured across ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPN Deportes.  In a statement from USL Executive Vice President Court Jeske, he expressed happiness for the broadcast deal for both USL Championship and League One.  “This is the biggest platform we’ve ever had for our league.  We are thrilled at the wide selection of games, clubs and landmark moments that will appear on national television this season.  It’s a special thing for our league to be able to showcase our clubs and cities across the USL Championship and League One on ESPN’s networks in addition to streaming an incredible schedule on ESPN+.”  The national telecast is also the first match of four to happen in a single day, a feat USL League One has never attempted.  Now that the 2021 season has begun, the two teams will face off for the first time since that fateful day of the championship.

            Greenville has started the 2021 season much like Union Omaha started the first eight games of the 2020 season: undefeated.  This is a team that only lost three matches last season, once at home.  Legacy Early College Field has become an impenetrable fortress, much like Greenville’s defense.  Despite only conceding four goals across eight home matches in 2020, two of those goals came at the hand of none other than Union Omaha, who went on to deliver the lone home loss for Greenville.  Fast forward to Sunday and things will look a bit different.

            Both teams kept their core players, but have also made moves to bolster their rosters with depth and experience.  Just in the past week, Greenville signed two players from Furman University: defender Cole McLagan and goalkeeper Ben Hale.  The duo had impressive collegiate careers, filled with team achievements and individual accolades in the Southern Conference.  When asked about the pair, Furman head coach Doug Allison said, “They’re both extremely competitive, natural leaders and players that want to serve.”  He continued lauding the players, saying, “Their qualities both on and off the field will translate very well at the professional level.”  It’s unlikely either of them will see the field on Sunday because the signings are still awaiting approval from the league and federation.

            Greenville is a highly disciplined team that organizes well at the back.  On average, they conceded 0.69 goals per match in 2020.  In 2021, the Triumph have only conceded one goal across three matches.  They don’t leave much space between their backline and midfield lines and when in possession of the ball, Greenville moves up the field methodically and orderly.  They aren’t a flashy team, but their consistency makes for an attractive form of soccer.

            Union Omaha has had their fair share of successes in 2021, as well: three matches, three wins, three clean sheets.  With the core group of defensive players back for the club’s second season, the team has yet to concede a goal.  In three matches this season, the team has only allowed goalkeeper Rashid Nuhu to face seven shots.  Opponents have shown a hesitation to fill the penalty area because of the aerial superiority of the backline.  They’re fast, physical, and hungry to win loose balls.  On top of that, Nuhu regularly displays full confidence rushing crosses and battling for clearances.

            The Owls have seen valuable contributions from new signings this season, as well.  Forward Greg Hurst scored a clutch goal against New England on Wednesday.  He’s also shown good chemistry up top with Evan Conway.  With their combined pace and pressure in the final third, opposing defenses have had their hands full marking them.  The duo often distracts the backline and then the second wave of Union Omaha’s attack presents itself: the midfielders.  Whether it’s Connor Doyle, Nicolas Firmino, or Emir Alihodžić, the newcomers have proven their value among the veterans of the club and provided plenty of competition for playing time.

            If Sunday’s match is anything like the one between these two clubs last season, we’re in for 90 minutes of high-quality soccer.  Last year’s result was a 2-1 win for Union Omaha and goals for both sides were nearly works of art.  Look for goals to be a rare commodity on Sunday, but competition at a surplus.  Both clubs have roster depth to drive this match to a full 90 minutes, so when you settle in for the match, make sure you have all of your snacks and refreshments, as well as an empty bladder.

            There will be a watch party hosted by the Parliament supporters group at Rathskeller Bier Haus.  The outdoor patio will feature a large TV with plenty of speakers.  While kickoff is scheduled for 3 PM, there will be merchandise available for purchase beforehand.  Whether you’re enjoying the match at home or elsewhere, stay tuned to Who Gives A Hoot Media for a recap of the match, podcast with a discussion about this and other topics, and articles featuring data from around league.

From a personal scheduling perspective there were a lot of advantages to getting my 2nd vaccine shot on Wednesday. Unfortunately, part of the downside was that I was not up for writing a recap. (Brief aside, get vaccinated!) But we should review the appetizer from Wednesday before the main course on Sunday, so let’s dive in.

1) The assist.

What a thing of beauty from Rashid to Greg. Greg had a lot to do, trap the ball, settle the ball, beat the first defender, not pass to a wide open Evan Conway, and in the face of a converging defender bury the ball in the back of the net. But Rashid created that chance from absolutely nothing. Makes you wonder if we see him score this year at Werner Park.

2) Key chances were plentiful.

Even though we managed to end the game with less than 50% of the possession (46.4%, our highest all year) again, this was our most sustained attacking performance of the year, generating a season high in both crosses and chances created.

Best left back in League One, Dami Viader had 6 chances created to go with his 13 crosses in this game. Dami is 2nd in the league in chances created (9) and 1st in crosses (31).

Special recognition for Devin and Ferrety who had 3 chances created each, the same number of chances created by Tyler Polak in 3 games.

3) Some xG analysis.

I’m definitely still trying to understand all of the insight into our league that the fabulous American Soccer Analysis app can provide. For now though it is pretty limited to “LOOK xG” so look xG.

g+ GameFlow: USL League One Regular Season @Union_Omaha v @Tormenta_FC on April 24, 2021. #UpTheOwls #VamosTormenta #OMAvTRM pic.twitter.com/q5oRGqc1X5

— GameFlow (@GameFlowxPG) April 25, 2021

g+ GameFlow: USL League One Regular Season @FTLauderdaleCF v @Union_Omaha on May 07, 2021. #fortlauderdalecf #UpTheOwls #FTLvOMA pic.twitter.com/m8r4TsmZaC

— GameFlow (@GameFlowxPG) May 8, 2021

g+ GameFlow: USL League One Regular Season @NERevolution2 v @Union_Omaha on May 12, 2021. #NERevsII #UpTheOwls #NERvOMA pic.twitter.com/a6IPsiVi24

— GameFlow (@GameFlowxPG) May 13, 2021

According to opponent xG and defensive g+ metrics that was the best game we’ve had so far. And while I thought it was it was the most entertaining game to date, our max goal probability was never even at 0.15. In other words, statistically, the best chance we created would have been the sixth best chance we created in the game against Fort Lauderdale.

I’ll use that data as evidence that Greg’s goal was as incredible as it seemed! Anyway, I look forward to learning more so I can deliver slightly deeper analysis than “goal was good.” In the meantime, can’t wait to beat the 2020 regular season champions again!

            There were fears of this match being a trap game.  To get to the Sunday marquee match against Greenville, they’d have to get through the Wednesday match against New England Revolution II.  Thankfully, no one within the Union Omaha club was looking past Wednesday.

            In a largely empty Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachussetts, Union Omaha defeated the New England Revolution II with a lone goal, which came in the 84^th minute of the contest.  Union Omaha goalkeeper, Rashid Nuhu, notched an assist by picking out forward Greg Hurst with a long-distance punt.  Hurst settled the pass, lost his defender, and buried the opportunity right as he was crossing the 18-yard line into the penalty area.

            It took until Week 6, but this was the first Wednesday match of the 2021 USL League One season.  Despite the midweek scheduling and early kickoff timing, the match featured interesting storylines, quality play from both sides, and plenty of build up to the late goal.

            Union Omaha head coach, Jay Mims, made a total of four changes to the starting lineup for Wednesday’s match, affecting the midfield and forwards.  Ethan Vanacore-Decker, Austin Panchot, and Elma N’for started for the first time this season, while Nicolas Firmino started his second match.  There was certainly an effort by Mims to rest some players in anticipation of the Greenville match on Sunday, May 16^th.  With the inclusion of those changes, it was interesting to see how the on-field chemistry would be influenced.

            From the opening kickoff, Union Omaha was ready to send a message: this was no trap game.  As usual, the Owls moved up the field quickly, confidently orchestrated attacks from the flanks, and flooded the box when a cross was imminent.  Forward Elma N’for pressed high and moved laterally to maintain pressure.  Fellow forward Austin Panchot was seen at times pressing high as well, but seemed more willing to sit back and let New England look for passes threading the Union Omaha defense.

            New England looked very poised while in possession early in the first half.  The ball spent most of its time along the backline, swinging from side to side.  Jake Rozhansky, team captain and new signing from last month, worked hard to manage the center of the field and link up the backline with the offense.  He faced a lot of congestion in the middle and found a solution in left midfielder Damian Rivera.  Union Omaha was caught bunching in the middle on multiple occasions, so Rivera took advantage of the freedom along the sideline.  He was fast, aggressive with the ball, and used creative measures to get by Ethan Vanacore-Decker and Ferrety Sousa.  Even in the 12^th minute, Rivera was able to take the goal line and work his way toward the goal.  The effort was all for naught after his shot went straight into a well-guarded near post and body of Rashid Nuhu.  New England was going to have to produce a special attack to break Rashid Nuhu’s streak of clean sheets.  Rivera was a good playmaker on the left side, but he needed more help from his teammates in the box.

            Union Omaha’s collective defensive efforts so far this season have resulted in zero goals conceded.  On top of that, Rashid Nuhu has only had to save seven shots on goal.  Last season, he started 15 matches and only had to save a total of 32 shots.  The backline has wreaked havoc and whatever gets through, Nuhu rises to the occasion to prevent anything from becoming a goal.  An added benefit to the soaring defense is their willingness to create turnovers and play out of the back.  The players are confident on the ball, look to the outside for clearance, and have good vision of the field.  Outside backs Dami Viader and Ferrety Sousa have proven themselves on both ends of the field.  In 2020, Union Omaha relied more on deep clearances, but the development of this skill makes the Owls formidable against any opponent.

            As the first half drew to a close, both teams evolved with every attack, every defense, and every challenge.  Though the scoreboard remained the same as the beginning of the match, both sides were utilizing their growing confidence.  The last ten minutes of the first half belonged to Union Omaha, but New England had displayed enough competencies with the ball to make the second half interesting.

            In 2020, the two clubs met for the first match of the season in Gillette Stadium and the contest ended in a 0-0 draw.  Despite Union Omaha’s persistence, it looked as though New England was going to repeat history and successfully defend their home turf.  The second half was going to require changes in personnel, tactics, and a special play to break the deadlock.

            Both clubs started the second half very similarly to the first: New England showing technical prowess and Union Omaha pressing high and fast.  Both sides continued to create chances, but once the substitutions started, everything changed.  New England opened the substitutions in the 57^th minute when they brought Michel on for Michael Tsicoulias.  Two minutes later, Union Omaha responded with two substitutions of their own: Evan Conway for Elma N’for and Greg Hurst for Austin Panchot.  Even these three substitutions proved to be substantial for each team’s success.

            With renewed energy and confidence on both sides, new tactics emerged.  New England began to mirror Union Omaha by pressing higher and initiating challenges earlier up the field.  Defenders dealt with challenges almost immediately after receiving the ball.  It’s a good tactic, but it has its drawbacks.  First off, if the opposition has strong ball skills and can play out of the back, they can generate attacks much quicker because the numbers condensed in a small area will be easier to evade.  Secondly, lines between the forwards/midfield and defenders can become increasingly spaced, allowing for counterattacks.  All it takes is a single defensive lapse to be punished.  Case in point: the 84^th minute.

            New England was able to generate an attack and put a shot on frame.  Thanks to the situational awareness and technical abilities of Rashid Nuhu, he was able to pick out Greg Hurst sprinting down the field.  With a lower punt, and plenty of power generated behind it, Greg Hurst was able to settle the ball in stride.  After getting past his defender, he was able to set his sights on the goal.  As he made his was toward the middle, a second defender was approaching quickly, so he didn’t have much time to work with.  A blink of an eye later and the ball was in the back of the net.  That’s how a team gets punished for getting caught too high.

            The remaining minutes were filled with Union Omaha clearances and eating the clock however they could.  When the final whistle sounded, Union Omaha players could celebrate the added three points in the standings.  The three points were much appreciated, lifting them into a tie with Greenville for first in the league ahead of Sunday’s clash on ESPN2.  New England fell to 1-2 and 8^th in the table.  They remain at home and will face Chattanooga on Sunday at 7:30 on ESPN+.

            Keep checking in with Who Gives A Hoot Media for more great content, podcasts, and announcements on social media.

Life intervened and prevented me from having a comprehensive watch of this game. However, I have watched every minute of it at least once. And, *lowers voice to a whisper* it was a little boring. *returns to normal volume* We’re so very good at defending, and pressing, and counter-attacking, it all kind of melds into just watching us execute. Probably time to start embracing the beauty of the Jay Mims way. Anyway, I’m debuting a new data source this week so let’s dive in.

1) JP Scearce had another great game.

I normally don’t love shining the light on guys who make team of the week. The light is already on them. But since it took looking at the stats for me to see the full impact he made on the game, I’ll share some highlights for JP.

With 30 passes, he tied with Rashid for 8th among our starters in passes. But tied with Greg Hurst for 1st on the team with 5 duels won.

He led the team with 3 chances created and had an assist on Dami’s goal (also tied for first on the team).

And while he did take a shot from inside 25 yards that managed to go out for a throw-in, he also forced a tremendous save on a shot late in the game, on his way to leading the team in shots taken.

To recap, JP led the team in shots, duels won, assists, and chances created.

One last look at the impact JP had can be seen in this chart of shots, goals, assists, and chances created/key passes.

2) Rashid has been valuable.

Let me give a little preamble and say that in addition to Opta data from the league and Transfermarkt, I’m going to start using data from website I recently found: American Soccer Analysis and their INCREDIBLY useful app. And now because of this incredible project (folks who are doing this, where can I send money?) we can start analyzing xG! That’s right, we’re adding expected goals and related data into the mix.

Now, you are probably wondering why I am burying the lede here and dumping this huge development into the 2nd segment which is about Rashid. This is why: according to the American Soccer Analysis app, Rashid has, faced 0.99 xG on the season. And of course, you know Rashid has kept a clean sheet in both games.

All of this is to say, Rashid has personally been good for preventing an entire goal on the season so far, good for 2nd best in the league. Who keeps the shots out, indeed!

3) Conor Doyle is legit.

Not to get too far into the emotional side of the game, but Conor Doyle did not get me very excited as signings go. I suspect I’d have been more excited by a younger player at a different spot in career trajectory. But holy cow, was I wrong to be underwhelmed. He might just be the piece that unlocks everything.

For instance, the first goal in this game never happens without his perfect pass to Dami and that pass doesn’t show up anywhere in the stats. (Because our league doesn’t track hockey assists which is just fine with me.)

Check out his passes and crosses from the game.

Here is why I like this chart so much.

He’s not perfect with the ball, those two turnovers on short passes deep in our own half stand out as less than ideal. But the other four passes that were not completed all are clearly attack minded. Which is great!

The fact that he has no successful crosses doesn’t bother me, these are strikes of the ball with a low probability of success to begin with. Our crossing accuracy for the game was 16.7% (compared to 4.8% (!!) for Fort Lauderdale). What I love is that we have someone making these crosses that is more than just Dami.

That’s all for now, can’t wait to see Union Omaha finally settle an old score this week…and actually beat Revs II!

BONUS) Revs II are one of 6 (SIX) teams in the league we have not beaten. The list is Chattanooga, Forward Madison, NCFC, Richmond, Revs II, and TFC II. NCFC and TFC II didn’t play in the league last year, so hard to complain about that. We lost to Chattanooga and Richmond the only time we played them. We took 2 points from our 2 games against Madison, and we took one from Revs II. Accordingly, I’d rank this game as a top 3 score to settle.

            Union Omaha continues their road tour on Wednesday, May 12^th when they face off against New England Revolution II in Gillette Stadium.  Kickoff is scheduled for 4 PM (CST) and will air on ESPN+.

            The Owls are coming off a 2-0 road win against Fort Lauderdale last Friday.  After five days of rest, the team will face a well-rested New England Revolution II team looking to bounce back from a 3-0 defeat to Richmond Kickers.  With the short turnaround time, Union Omaha coach Jay Mims will rely on his team’s roster depth.  Only one change was made to the starting lineup against Fort Lauderdale.  No announcement has been made about player health or possible lineup changes ahead of Wednesday’s clash in Foxborough, MA.

            New England was featured in the very first match of the season, defeating Fort Lauderdale 1-0 in DRV PNK Stadium.  Heading into the second week of the USL League One season, the Revolution II made a few changes to their lineup as a result of injuries.  Four players were left off the roster and three players from the MLS side joined the team ahead of their home match against Richmond Kickers.  With the inclusion of the three MLS players, New England Revolution II coach Clint Peay switched the formation from the 4-3-3 seen in Week 1, to a 3-5-2 in Week 2.  None of the adjustments yielded positive results, as Richmond went on to win 3-0 and climb the standings.  No updates have been released related to the injured players.

            This will be the first league match for New England since April 17^th.  In their three-week hiatus, New England has signed two new players: defenders Pierre Cayet and Tyler Freitas.  Cayet joins the club after a successful collegiate career with Temple, featuring All-American Athletic Conference honors and 2020-2021 unanimous conference Defensive Player of the Year.  The Frenchman started his professional career in his homeland before coming to the United States.  Tyler Freitas has been a Revolution Academy player since 2014-2015.  Having finally signed a professional contract with the club, he has high hopes of getting called up to the MLS side in the near future.

            Union Omaha and New England Revolution II played twice in 2020, with the first meeting resulting in a scoreless tie.  Later in the season, New England visited Omaha and left with a 2-0 win.  The Revolution look to improve their home form, having only won two matches in Gillette Stadium last season.  Union Omaha is hoping to stay in stride with league-leading Greenville before their matchup on Sunday, May 16^th.

            What to Watch For:

• Who will New England start?  Six Revolution players have made their debut so far this season.  Will the three MLS players be included in the lineup?  Will Cayet and Freitas make their debut?
• Who will Union Omaha start?  With only one lineup change between the first two matches, tired legs are an inevitability.
• Will Omaha change their game plan?  New England doesn’t fare well against teams in quick transitions.  The Owls have plenty of speed, so they may sit back and look for the fast break.
• Will there be an Instagram livestream of the match?  Any fans who watched this matchup in Gillette Stadium last year will remember switching from ESPN+ to Instagram in order to watch the match to completion.
• Will Nicolas Firmino punish his old club?  The Brazilian started for New England 15 times last season and scored three goals to go with two assists.  He finished tied for 2nd in the 2020 USL League One Young Player of the Year race and was joint New England Revolution II top scorer, but was not brought back to the club.  Wednesday’s matchup will be his first contest against his former club and first visit to Gillette Stadium since leaving the club.

Except for the fact that Union Omaha’s match took place on a Friday, last week actually felt like a normal USL League One kind of week.  Union Omaha and Greenville won their games, nobody scored more than two goals in their respective game, and we finally had our first draw of the season after 14 tries.  Far from the “all gas, no brakes” we saw the week before with buckets of goals and a Richmond stumble to Fort Lauderdale.

Speaking of “all gas, no brakes”, get a load of Liam.  Only two points from the top of the board, while somehow managing to only pick barely more than one-third of these matches correctly.  If I don’t win our inaugural predictions competition (prize yet to be determined), I’m here for Liam asking us all to hold his beer while he goes 2-4 with six points every week.  I would gladly cede this to him if he can keep that momentum up.

So with a Wednesday match this week, we’re coming to you a little earlier than normal.  However, I promise the readership that even with less time to prepare, our performance will still approach not quite adequate.

Here is last week’s recap:

	Ben	Jon	Liam	Luke	Rich	Riley	Ryan
Fort Lauderdale 0-2 Omaha	1 pt	1 pt	1 pt	1 pt	1 pt	1 pt	1 pt
Richmond 2-0 Tormenta	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	1 pt	1 pt	0 pts	0 pts
North Carolina 1-2 Greenville	1 pt	1 pt	3 pts	1 pt	1 pt	1 pt	1 pt
North Texas 0-1 Chattanooga	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts
Tucson 1-1 Madison	0 pts	3 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	3 pts
Total	2 pts	5 pts	4 pts	3 pts	3 pts	2 pts	5 pts

	Record	Points
Jon	7-7	11
Rich	8-6	10
Liam	5-9	9
Ryan	7-7	9
Riley	7-7	7
Luke	6-8	6
Ben	5-9	5

Here are the predictions for week 6:

	Ben	Jon	Liam	Luke	Rich	Riley	Ryan
New England Revolution II v. Union Omaha (Wednesday, 16:00)	0-2	1-1	0-3	1-1	0-1	0-1	0-2
Forward Madison v. North Carolina FC (Saturday, 19:00)	0-1	2-1	1-1	0-1	1-1	0-2	1-2
Greenville Triumph v. Union Omaha (Sunday, 15:00)	0-2	2-2	1-1	1-3	1-1	2-3	1-1
North Texas SC v. South Georgia Tormenta (Sunday, 19:00)	2-2	3-1	2-0	2-0	2-1	1-1	2-2
Fort Lauderdale CF v. FC Tucson (Sunday, 19:30)	2-1	3-2	1-1	2-2	1-1	1-2	2-1
New England Revolution II v. Chattanooga Red Wolves (Sunday, 20:30)	0-1	0-1	1-2	2-0	0-1	1-3	1-2

Two matches, two victories, two clean sheets.  Not a bad start to the 2021 season.  On Friday, May 7^th, Union Omaha defeated Fort Lauderdale CF 2-0, thanks to goals from Evan Conway and Dámi Viader.  With the three points, Union Omaha sits tied for second place in the current USL League One standings.

            In 2020, these two clubs faced each other twice, both victories went to Union Omaha, and the difference was a single goal both times.  Looking to remain undefeated against Fort Lauderdale, the starting lineup for Union Omaha remained the same as their first match of the season, with the exception of Emir Alihodžić replacing Nicolas Firmino in the midfield.  This was the first time Búhos fans saw Alihodžić start a competitive match with the club since his recent signing.

            Fort Lauderdale hosted Union Omaha at DRV PNK Stadium, home to Major League Soccer’s Inter Miami CF.  The expanded field dimensions, in comparison to Union Omaha’s Werner Park, presented possible challenges for the Owls.  Not to be excluded from any Florida equations, afternoon storms rolled through the area prior to kickoff and created slick conditions for both sides to battle, as well.

            From the opening kickoff, Fort Lauderdale controlled much of the possession, swinging passes across the backline.  Union Omaha front men Evan Conway and Greg Hurst took turns applying pressure high, while the midfield and backline only pressed as high as the half-way line.  Fort Lauderdale started conservatively, making easy passes and looking for windows.  Union Omaha, on the other hand, looked for the fast break on the counterattack.  The battle of polar strategies made for an interesting match.

            Fort Lauderdale did a good job of establishing control, maintaining possession, and moving up the field, but the attacks seemed to sputter once they reached the penalty area.  Players seemed reluctant to make runs off the ball and into the box.  Their game plan seemed to include heavy play on the flanks and crosses into the box, but they often found themselves at a numbers disadvantage in the box, resulting in a lot of turnovers.  One benefit of emphasizing flank play is the greater chances for corner kicks.  Fort Lauderdale midfielder George Acosta ended up taking eight corner kicks for Fort Lauderdale in the first half alone.  They did scare Union Omaha a couple of times, but the attempts ultimately went wide.  Wearing an electric blue kit, Union Omaha goalkeeper Rashid Nuhu remained confident between the posts, wasn’t afraid to rush an incoming cross, and reacted quickly enough to attempts that weren’t far from being on frame.

            Union Omaha showed fearlessness by dribbling at the Fort Lauderdale defense.  The Owls even turned the field dimensions into their strength by stretching the defense, loading personnel on one side of the field, and including the two outside backs in attacks.  Union Omaha right back, Ferrety Sousa, showed his eagerness to take on an offensive role, but the evening really belonged to Dámi Viader, Union Omaha left back.  Time after time, Dámi showed strength with the ball, made strong decisions in the build-up play, and wasn’t afraid to get into the final third.  In the 31^st minute, Dámi Viader and Union Omaha midfielder Conor Doyle had a beautiful give-and-go set of passes that broke through a cluster of opposition, opened up the flank for Dámi, and allowed him to find Evan Conway at the far post to break the deadlock.

            Suddenly finding themselves down 1-0 at home, Fort Lauderdale immediately increased their pace of play off the ensuing kickoff.  Fort Lauderdale forward Shaan Hundal presented repeated threats and worked hard to close out the first half on a high point.  In the 43^rd minute, Fort Lauderdale defender Noah Allen picked up a loose ball during a corner kick and nearly tied the match, but Rashid Nuhu was able to get a palm on the ball and send it over the crossbar.  The halftime whistle blew shortly after and the teams made their way to the locker rooms.

            Just like the start of the first half, Union Omaha pressed high and early in the second.  Greg Hurst was able to disrupt play, gain possession, and make chances for himself on multiple occasions.  Evan Conway made good runs off the ball, enabled teammates to take advantage of the space he created, and posed a threat with each potential long pass.  The Owls continued focusing on counterattacks and fast breaks, resulting in 39.1% of total possession at the end of the day.  When the Owls were able to gain possession, they did well at flooding the Fort Lauderdale half and varying their attacks in the final third.  Omaha was awarded several corner kicks in the second half and made sure to capitalize on one in particular.

            In the 71^st minute, a corner kick was played into the box and ended up bouncing around until the ball fell at the feet of JP Scearce, who calmly collected the ball, found Dámi Viader open in the penalty area, and fed him the ball.  With a box congested with players from both sides, Dámi was able to slot the ball low and hard to the back post, tucking it just inside for the Union Omaha insurance policy.

            The remaining 19 minutes, plus four minutes of injury time, were filled with quality chances on both ends of the field.  On offense, JP Scearce had a great attempt from almost 30 yards out that had to be batted wide by the Fort Lauderdale goalkeeper.  Back on defense, Ferrety Sousa found himself as the last defender and was able to execute a perfect slide tackle inside the box to save an attempt on goal.  At the final whistle, it was Union Omaha players and fans celebrating a 2-0 victory.

            Union Omaha now has six points and is tied for second place with Richmond Kickers and Fort Lauderdale CF.  Union Omaha continues their stretch of six road matches with a Wednesday, May 12^th matchup against New England Revolution II.  Kickoff is set for 4 PM and will air on ESPN+.  Keep an eye out for announcements from Who Gives A Hoot Media on social media for information about watch parties.