Data Dump: at Greenville

Well, the belt is still ours. And while that is sort of all that matters, there are a few very interesting things worth looking into following our match against the Triumph on Sunday. Let’s dive in.

1) No backline rotation.

The disastrous affects of rotating our backline last year looms large in my memory. In researching for this column, I learned it weighs so heavily on me, it has distorted that memory. Below is a chart of our backline on the 3 occasions in club history where we played 3 matches in a 10 day period.

DateHomeAwayUO ResultRBRCBLCBLB
9/6/2020Union OmahaOrlando City BWinHauswirthOsumanuCrullViader
9/11/2020TormentaUnion OmahaDrawHauswirth*OsumanuCrull*Viader
9/15/2020Red WolvesUnion OmahaLossHauswirthAuneKnutsonViader*
9/19/2020Union OmahaNE Revs IILossHauswirth^AuneOsumanuCrull
9/26/2020Union OmahaKickersLossSousaOsumanuKnutsonCrull
9/30/2020LauderdaleUnion OmahaWinSousaOsumanuKnutsonCrull
10/3/2020Union OmahaTormentaWinSousaOsumanuKnutsonCrull
SZN #2
5/7/2021Fort LauderdaleUnion OmahaWinSousaOsumanuKnutsonViader
5/12/2021NE Revs IIUnion OmahaWinSousaOsumanuKnutsonViader
5/16/2021TriumphUnion OmahaDrawSousaOsumanuKnutsonViader
* – substituted at halftime
^ – substituted in the 65′

So, intended to write about how I was glad Jay had learned his lesson about backline rotation in the off-season, but it sure seems like he learned that last year. I’m glad he did. Rotating our backline was a recipe for disaster in the past. (Not mentioned is the rotated backline that coughed up our ugliest goal of 2020 in our game at North Texas last year.) We should avoid doing it as much as possible. Especially early in the season.

Speaking of ugly goals, how about that one we gave up to Greenville. Ideally, that will be the ugly goal of the season for us. That goal was an excellent example of one of my favorite concepts: cascading failure. Each player could have done more to prevent that goal, but it is interesting that it took 3 players making small mistakes to give up a goal. Bodes well for the season.

2) Did Ferrety Sousa put Don Smart in witness protection?

Sweet mercy, I can’t remember the last soccer game I watched where an attacking players switched sides to get out of a defensive assignment. It doesn’t show up in the stats for Ferrety, but look at this sequence of overlapping play with Devin Boyce.

Ferrety had himself a game, leading the team in successful dribbles, completed crosses, and chances created, while finishing 2nd in passes.

Chances created, Successful dribbles, Successful crosses – All players
Ferrety Sousa – touch map

Really an excellent game all around! Maybe even a man of the match performance.

3) Nick Firmino loves the ball.

Our midfield is so deep that Christian Molina (2 goals, 1 assist in 418′ of play last year, one game winning goal, one game winning assist, one banger in Greenville) has played 21′ all season, Devin Boyce who played in the middle and up top last year is on the wing, Austin Panchot (also a midfielder) is starting at forward, and all of this is with Tobi injured!

All of that is before you get to Nick Firmino, man of the match. Nick was pitched to me as a “depth” signing, but he seems far from it so far. The ball is drawn to him. He’s has so many passes when he’s on the field and we only really focus on the highlight moments.

Obviously, his 2nd half appearance made a big difference for us in the Greenville game. But did you know he 39 passes in the half, right between the number of passes that Illal (39) and Dalytn (43) had for the whole game.

To get an apples to apples comparison, I’ve calculated passes per minute for our top 3 passers by sheer volume:
Dami: 0.364 passes per minute
Ferrety: 0.328 passes per minute
Illal: 0.328 passes per minute

Okay those guys are all defenders and providing lots and lots of key contributions to our team. Here is Nick’s:
Nick Firmino: 0.507 passes per minute

Put another way, Nick Firmino has a touch every other minute he is on the pitch. The league leader in passes, Ethan Hardin of Ft Lauderdale, has a rate of: 0.644 passes per minute. But, and this is a significant but, Ft Lauderdale averages 412.5 passes per game compared to our 369.25.

Also, that was a great goal by Firmino to rescue the draw. Pretty big deal considering Greenville had twice the rest and none of the travel we did, and had 7 chances above 0.1 xG while we had 0. Thank goodness for our defense and thank goodness for Nick Firmino’s brilliance.

Quick aside, why are the camera’s so bad in League One? You can’t even see the ball go into the net because it washes out. Good thing it counts just the same and the belt remains where it belongs. See you after our next game which takes place in a historic baseball stadium in Wisconsin.

Greenville Preview

            It was the Championship that never happened.  Union Omaha and Greenville were set play the 2020 USL League One Championship when COVID-19 came crashing into the world like the Kool-Aid Man.  With the Championship cancelled, Union Omaha stayed home empty handed and Greenville was announced as the 2020 USL League One Champion. 

            Sunday’s match will take place at Legacy Early College Field in Greenville, South Carolina.  Kickoff is slated for 3 PM (CST) and will air on ESPN2.  The national telecast was announced back on April 17th and will be the first time that USL League One has had a match featured across ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPN Deportes.  In a statement from USL Executive Vice President Court Jeske, he expressed happiness for the broadcast deal for both USL Championship and League One.  “This is the biggest platform we’ve ever had for our league.  We are thrilled at the wide selection of games, clubs and landmark moments that will appear on national television this season.  It’s a special thing for our league to be able to showcase our clubs and cities across the USL Championship and League One on ESPN’s networks in addition to streaming an incredible schedule on ESPN+.”  The national telecast is also the first match of four to happen in a single day, a feat USL League One has never attempted.  Now that the 2021 season has begun, the two teams will face off for the first time since that fateful day of the championship.

            Greenville has started the 2021 season much like Union Omaha started the first eight games of the 2020 season: undefeated.  This is a team that only lost three matches last season, once at home.  Legacy Early College Field has become an impenetrable fortress, much like Greenville’s defense.  Despite only conceding four goals across eight home matches in 2020, two of those goals came at the hand of none other than Union Omaha, who went on to deliver the lone home loss for Greenville.  Fast forward to Sunday and things will look a bit different.

            Both teams kept their core players, but have also made moves to bolster their rosters with depth and experience.  Just in the past week, Greenville signed two players from Furman University: defender Cole McLagan and goalkeeper Ben Hale.  The duo had impressive collegiate careers, filled with team achievements and individual accolades in the Southern Conference.  When asked about the pair, Furman head coach Doug Allison said, “They’re both extremely competitive, natural leaders and players that want to serve.”  He continued lauding the players, saying, “Their qualities both on and off the field will translate very well at the professional level.”  It’s unlikely either of them will see the field on Sunday because the signings are still awaiting approval from the league and federation.

            Greenville is a highly disciplined team that organizes well at the back.  On average, they conceded 0.69 goals per match in 2020.  In 2021, the Triumph have only conceded one goal across three matches.  They don’t leave much space between their backline and midfield lines and when in possession of the ball, Greenville moves up the field methodically and orderly.  They aren’t a flashy team, but their consistency makes for an attractive form of soccer.

            Union Omaha has had their fair share of successes in 2021, as well: three matches, three wins, three clean sheets.  With the core group of defensive players back for the club’s second season, the team has yet to concede a goal.  In three matches this season, the team has only allowed goalkeeper Rashid Nuhu to face seven shots.  Opponents have shown a hesitation to fill the penalty area because of the aerial superiority of the backline.  They’re fast, physical, and hungry to win loose balls.  On top of that, Nuhu regularly displays full confidence rushing crosses and battling for clearances.

            The Owls have seen valuable contributions from new signings this season, as well.  Forward Greg Hurst scored a clutch goal against New England on Wednesday.  He’s also shown good chemistry up top with Evan Conway.  With their combined pace and pressure in the final third, opposing defenses have had their hands full marking them.  The duo often distracts the backline and then the second wave of Union Omaha’s attack presents itself: the midfielders.  Whether it’s Connor Doyle, Nicolas Firmino, or Emir Alihodžić, the newcomers have proven their value among the veterans of the club and provided plenty of competition for playing time.

            If Sunday’s match is anything like the one between these two clubs last season, we’re in for 90 minutes of high-quality soccer.  Last year’s result was a 2-1 win for Union Omaha and goals for both sides were nearly works of art.  Look for goals to be a rare commodity on Sunday, but competition at a surplus.  Both clubs have roster depth to drive this match to a full 90 minutes, so when you settle in for the match, make sure you have all of your snacks and refreshments, as well as an empty bladder.

            There will be a watch party hosted by the Parliament supporters group at Rathskeller Bier Haus.  The outdoor patio will feature a large TV with plenty of speakers.  While kickoff is scheduled for 3 PM, there will be merchandise available for purchase beforehand.  Whether you’re enjoying the match at home or elsewhere, stay tuned to Who Gives A Hoot Media for a recap of the match, podcast with a discussion about this and other topics, and articles featuring data from around league.

Data Dump: at New England

From a personal scheduling perspective there were a lot of advantages to getting my 2nd vaccine shot on Wednesday. Unfortunately, part of the downside was that I was not up for writing a recap. (Brief aside, get vaccinated!) But we should review the appetizer from Wednesday before the main course on Sunday, so let’s dive in.

1) The assist.

Assists and goals from 5/12/21 game.

What a thing of beauty from Rashid to Greg. Greg had a lot to do, trap the ball, settle the ball, beat the first defender, not pass to a wide open Evan Conway, and in the face of a converging defender bury the ball in the back of the net. But Rashid created that chance from absolutely nothing. Makes you wonder if we see him score this year at Werner Park.

2) Key chances were plentiful.

Even though we managed to end the game with less than 50% of the possession (46.4%, our highest all year) again, this was our most sustained attacking performance of the year, generating a season high in both crosses and chances created.

Union Omaha Key Chances

Best left back in League One, Dami Viader had 6 chances created to go with his 13 crosses in this game. Dami is 2nd in the league in chances created (9) and 1st in crosses (31).

Special recognition for Devin and Ferrety who had 3 chances created each, the same number of chances created by Tyler Polak in 3 games.

3) Some xG analysis.

I’m definitely still trying to understand all of the insight into our league that the fabulous American Soccer Analysis app can provide. For now though it is pretty limited to “LOOK xG” so look xG.

Game 1
Game 2
Game 3

According to opponent xG and defensive g+ metrics that was the best game we’ve had so far. And while I thought it was it was the most entertaining game to date, our max goal probability was never even at 0.15. In other words, statistically, the best chance we created would have been the sixth best chance we created in the game against Fort Lauderdale.

I’ll use that data as evidence that Greg’s goal was as incredible as it seemed! Anyway, I look forward to learning more so I can deliver slightly deeper analysis than “goal was good.” In the meantime, can’t wait to beat the 2020 regular season champions again!

New England Revolution II Recap

            There were fears of this match being a trap game.  To get to the Sunday marquee match against Greenville, they’d have to get through the Wednesday match against New England Revolution II.  Thankfully, no one within the Union Omaha club was looking past Wednesday.

            In a largely empty Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachussetts, Union Omaha defeated the New England Revolution II with a lone goal, which came in the 84th minute of the contest.  Union Omaha goalkeeper, Rashid Nuhu, notched an assist by picking out forward Greg Hurst with a long-distance punt.  Hurst settled the pass, lost his defender, and buried the opportunity right as he was crossing the 18-yard line into the penalty area.

            It took until Week 6, but this was the first Wednesday match of the 2021 USL League One season.  Despite the midweek scheduling and early kickoff timing, the match featured interesting storylines, quality play from both sides, and plenty of build up to the late goal.

            Union Omaha head coach, Jay Mims, made a total of four changes to the starting lineup for Wednesday’s match, affecting the midfield and forwards.  Ethan Vanacore-Decker, Austin Panchot, and Elma N’for started for the first time this season, while Nicolas Firmino started his second match.  There was certainly an effort by Mims to rest some players in anticipation of the Greenville match on Sunday, May 16th.  With the inclusion of those changes, it was interesting to see how the on-field chemistry would be influenced.

            From the opening kickoff, Union Omaha was ready to send a message: this was no trap game.  As usual, the Owls moved up the field quickly, confidently orchestrated attacks from the flanks, and flooded the box when a cross was imminent.  Forward Elma N’for pressed high and moved laterally to maintain pressure.  Fellow forward Austin Panchot was seen at times pressing high as well, but seemed more willing to sit back and let New England look for passes threading the Union Omaha defense.

            New England looked very poised while in possession early in the first half.  The ball spent most of its time along the backline, swinging from side to side.  Jake Rozhansky, team captain and new signing from last month, worked hard to manage the center of the field and link up the backline with the offense.  He faced a lot of congestion in the middle and found a solution in left midfielder Damian Rivera.  Union Omaha was caught bunching in the middle on multiple occasions, so Rivera took advantage of the freedom along the sideline.  He was fast, aggressive with the ball, and used creative measures to get by Ethan Vanacore-Decker and Ferrety Sousa.  Even in the 12th minute, Rivera was able to take the goal line and work his way toward the goal.  The effort was all for naught after his shot went straight into a well-guarded near post and body of Rashid Nuhu.  New England was going to have to produce a special attack to break Rashid Nuhu’s streak of clean sheets.  Rivera was a good playmaker on the left side, but he needed more help from his teammates in the box.

            Union Omaha’s collective defensive efforts so far this season have resulted in zero goals conceded.  On top of that, Rashid Nuhu has only had to save seven shots on goal.  Last season, he started 15 matches and only had to save a total of 32 shots.  The backline has wreaked havoc and whatever gets through, Nuhu rises to the occasion to prevent anything from becoming a goal.  An added benefit to the soaring defense is their willingness to create turnovers and play out of the back.  The players are confident on the ball, look to the outside for clearance, and have good vision of the field.  Outside backs Dami Viader and Ferrety Sousa have proven themselves on both ends of the field.  In 2020, Union Omaha relied more on deep clearances, but the development of this skill makes the Owls formidable against any opponent.

            As the first half drew to a close, both teams evolved with every attack, every defense, and every challenge.  Though the scoreboard remained the same as the beginning of the match, both sides were utilizing their growing confidence.  The last ten minutes of the first half belonged to Union Omaha, but New England had displayed enough competencies with the ball to make the second half interesting.

            In 2020, the two clubs met for the first match of the season in Gillette Stadium and the contest ended in a 0-0 draw.  Despite Union Omaha’s persistence, it looked as though New England was going to repeat history and successfully defend their home turf.  The second half was going to require changes in personnel, tactics, and a special play to break the deadlock.

            Both clubs started the second half very similarly to the first: New England showing technical prowess and Union Omaha pressing high and fast.  Both sides continued to create chances, but once the substitutions started, everything changed.  New England opened the substitutions in the 57th minute when they brought Michel on for Michael Tsicoulias.  Two minutes later, Union Omaha responded with two substitutions of their own: Evan Conway for Elma N’for and Greg Hurst for Austin Panchot.  Even these three substitutions proved to be substantial for each team’s success.

            With renewed energy and confidence on both sides, new tactics emerged.  New England began to mirror Union Omaha by pressing higher and initiating challenges earlier up the field.  Defenders dealt with challenges almost immediately after receiving the ball.  It’s a good tactic, but it has its drawbacks.  First off, if the opposition has strong ball skills and can play out of the back, they can generate attacks much quicker because the numbers condensed in a small area will be easier to evade.  Secondly, lines between the forwards/midfield and defenders can become increasingly spaced, allowing for counterattacks.  All it takes is a single defensive lapse to be punished.  Case in point: the 84th minute.

            New England was able to generate an attack and put a shot on frame.  Thanks to the situational awareness and technical abilities of Rashid Nuhu, he was able to pick out Greg Hurst sprinting down the field.  With a lower punt, and plenty of power generated behind it, Greg Hurst was able to settle the ball in stride.  After getting past his defender, he was able to set his sights on the goal.  As he made his was toward the middle, a second defender was approaching quickly, so he didn’t have much time to work with.  A blink of an eye later and the ball was in the back of the net.  That’s how a team gets punished for getting caught too high.

            The remaining minutes were filled with Union Omaha clearances and eating the clock however they could.  When the final whistle sounded, Union Omaha players could celebrate the added three points in the standings.  The three points were much appreciated, lifting them into a tie with Greenville for first in the league ahead of Sunday’s clash on ESPN2.  New England fell to 1-2 and 8th in the table.  They remain at home and will face Chattanooga on Sunday at 7:30 on ESPN+.

            Keep checking in with Who Gives A Hoot Media for more great content, podcasts, and announcements on social media.

Data Dump: at Fort Lauderdale

Life intervened and prevented me from having a comprehensive watch of this game. However, I have watched every minute of it at least once. And, *lowers voice to a whisper* it was a little boring. *returns to normal volume* We’re so very good at defending, and pressing, and counter-attacking, it all kind of melds into just watching us execute. Probably time to start embracing the beauty of the Jay Mims way. Anyway, I’m debuting a new data source this week so let’s dive in.

1) JP Scearce had another great game.

I normally don’t love shining the light on guys who make team of the week. The light is already on them. But since it took looking at the stats for me to see the full impact he made on the game, I’ll share some highlights for JP.

With 30 passes, he tied with Rashid for 8th among our starters in passes. But tied with Greg Hurst for 1st on the team with 5 duels won.

He led the team with 3 chances created and had an assist on Dami’s goal (also tied for first on the team).

And while he did take a shot from inside 25 yards that managed to go out for a throw-in, he also forced a tremendous save on a shot late in the game, on his way to leading the team in shots taken.

To recap, JP led the team in shots, duels won, assists, and chances created.

JP’s offense stats.

One last look at the impact JP had can be seen in this chart of shots, goals, assists, and chances created/key passes.

Chart of shots, goals, assists, and key passes.

2) Rashid has been valuable.

Let me give a little preamble and say that in addition to Opta data from the league and Transfermarkt, I’m going to start using data from website I recently found: American Soccer Analysis and their INCREDIBLY useful app. And now because of this incredible project (folks who are doing this, where can I send money?) we can start analyzing xG! That’s right, we’re adding expected goals and related data into the mix.

Now, you are probably wondering why I am burying the lede here and dumping this huge development into the 2nd segment which is about Rashid. This is why: according to the American Soccer Analysis app, Rashid has, faced 0.99 xG on the season. And of course, you know Rashid has kept a clean sheet in both games.

All of this is to say, Rashid has personally been good for preventing an entire goal on the season so far, good for 2nd best in the league. Who keeps the shots out, indeed!

3) Conor Doyle is legit.

Not to get too far into the emotional side of the game, but Conor Doyle did not get me very excited as signings go. I suspect I’d have been more excited by a younger player at a different spot in career trajectory. But holy cow, was I wrong to be underwhelmed. He might just be the piece that unlocks everything.

For instance, the first goal in this game never happens without his perfect pass to Dami and that pass doesn’t show up anywhere in the stats. (Because our league doesn’t track hockey assists which is just fine with me.)

Check out his passes and crosses from the game.

Conor Doyle passes and crosses.

Here is why I like this chart so much.

Conor Doyle passes

He’s not perfect with the ball, those two turnovers on short passes deep in our own half stand out as less than ideal. But the other four passes that were not completed all are clearly attack minded. Which is great!

Conor Doyle crosses

The fact that he has no successful crosses doesn’t bother me, these are strikes of the ball with a low probability of success to begin with. Our crossing accuracy for the game was 16.7% (compared to 4.8% (!!) for Fort Lauderdale). What I love is that we have someone making these crosses that is more than just Dami.

That’s all for now, can’t wait to see Union Omaha finally settle an old score this week…and actually beat Revs II!

BONUS) Revs II are one of 6 (SIX) teams in the league we have not beaten. The list is Chattanooga, Forward Madison, NCFC, Richmond, Revs II, and TFC II. NCFC and TFC II didn’t play in the league last year, so hard to complain about that. We lost to Chattanooga and Richmond the only time we played them. We took 2 points from our 2 games against Madison, and we took one from Revs II. Accordingly, I’d rank this game as a top 3 score to settle.

New England Revolution II Preview

            Union Omaha continues their road tour on Wednesday, May 12th when they face off against New England Revolution II in Gillette Stadium.  Kickoff is scheduled for 4 PM (CST) and will air on ESPN+.

            The Owls are coming off a 2-0 road win against Fort Lauderdale last Friday.  After five days of rest, the team will face a well-rested New England Revolution II team looking to bounce back from a 3-0 defeat to Richmond Kickers.  With the short turnaround time, Union Omaha coach Jay Mims will rely on his team’s roster depth.  Only one change was made to the starting lineup against Fort Lauderdale.  No announcement has been made about player health or possible lineup changes ahead of Wednesday’s clash in Foxborough, MA.

            New England was featured in the very first match of the season, defeating Fort Lauderdale 1-0 in DRV PNK Stadium.  Heading into the second week of the USL League One season, the Revolution II made a few changes to their lineup as a result of injuries.  Four players were left off the roster and three players from the MLS side joined the team ahead of their home match against Richmond Kickers.  With the inclusion of the three MLS players, New England Revolution II coach Clint Peay switched the formation from the 4-3-3 seen in Week 1, to a 3-5-2 in Week 2.  None of the adjustments yielded positive results, as Richmond went on to win 3-0 and climb the standings.  No updates have been released related to the injured players.

            This will be the first league match for New England since April 17th.  In their three-week hiatus, New England has signed two new players: defenders Pierre Cayet and Tyler Freitas.  Cayet joins the club after a successful collegiate career with Temple, featuring All-American Athletic Conference honors and 2020-2021 unanimous conference Defensive Player of the Year.  The Frenchman started his professional career in his homeland before coming to the United States.  Tyler Freitas has been a Revolution Academy player since 2014-2015.  Having finally signed a professional contract with the club, he has high hopes of getting called up to the MLS side in the near future.

            Union Omaha and New England Revolution II played twice in 2020, with the first meeting resulting in a scoreless tie.  Later in the season, New England visited Omaha and left with a 2-0 win.  The Revolution look to improve their home form, having only won two matches in Gillette Stadium last season.  Union Omaha is hoping to stay in stride with league-leading Greenville before their matchup on Sunday, May 16th.

            What to Watch For:

  • Who will New England start?  Six Revolution players have made their debut so far this season.  Will the three MLS players be included in the lineup?  Will Cayet and Freitas make their debut?
  • Who will Union Omaha start?  With only one lineup change between the first two matches, tired legs are an inevitability.
  • Will Omaha change their game plan?  New England doesn’t fare well against teams in quick transitions.  The Owls have plenty of speed, so they may sit back and look for the fast break.
  • Will there be an Instagram livestream of the match?  Any fans who watched this matchup in Gillette Stadium last year will remember switching from ESPN+ to Instagram in order to watch the match to completion.
  • Will Nicolas Firmino punish his old club?  The Brazilian started for New England 15 times last season and scored three goals to go with two assists.  He finished tied for 2nd in the 2020 USL League One Young Player of the Year race and was joint New England Revolution II top scorer, but was not brought back to the club.  Wednesday’s matchup will be his first contest against his former club and first visit to Gillette Stadium since leaving the club.

USL League One Predictions: Week 6

Except for the fact that Union Omaha’s match took place on a Friday, last week actually felt like a normal USL League One kind of week.  Union Omaha and Greenville won their games, nobody scored more than two goals in their respective game, and we finally had our first draw of the season after 14 tries.  Far from the “all gas, no brakes” we saw the week before with buckets of goals and a Richmond stumble to Fort Lauderdale.

Speaking of “all gas, no brakes”, get a load of Liam.  Only two points from the top of the board, while somehow managing to only pick barely more than one-third of these matches correctly.  If I don’t win our inaugural predictions competition (prize yet to be determined), I’m here for Liam asking us all to hold his beer while he goes 2-4 with six points every week.  I would gladly cede this to him if he can keep that momentum up.

So with a Wednesday match this week, we’re coming to you a little earlier than normal.  However, I promise the readership that even with less time to prepare, our performance will still approach not quite adequate.

Here is last week’s recap:

BenJonLiamLukeRichRileyRyan
Fort Lauderdale 0-2 Omaha1 pt1 pt1 pt1 pt1 pt1 pt1 pt
Richmond 2-0 Tormenta0 pts0 pts0 pts1 pt1 pt0 pts0 pts
North Carolina 1-2 Greenville1 pt1 pt3 pts1 pt1 pt1 pt1 pt
North Texas 0-1 Chattanooga0 pts0 pts0 pts0 pts0 pts0 pts0 pts
Tucson 1-1 Madison0 pts3 pts0 pts0 pts0 pts0 pts3 pts
Total2 pts5 pts4 pts3 pts3 pts2 pts5 pts
Week 5 Results
RecordPoints
Jon7-711
Rich8-610
Liam5-99
Ryan7-79
Riley7-77
Luke6-86
Ben5-95
Week 5 Standings

Here are the predictions for week 6:

BenJonLiamLukeRichRileyRyan
New England Revolution II v. Union Omaha (Wednesday, 16:00)0-21-10-31-10-10-10-2
Forward Madison v. North Carolina FC (Saturday, 19:00)0-12-11-10-11-10-21-2
Greenville Triumph v. Union Omaha (Sunday, 15:00)0-22-21-11-31-12-31-1
North Texas SC v. South Georgia Tormenta (Sunday, 19:00)2-23-12-02-02-11-12-2
Fort Lauderdale CF v. FC Tucson (Sunday, 19:30)2-13-21-12-21-11-22-1
New England Revolution II v. Chattanooga Red Wolves (Sunday, 20:30)0-10-11-22-00-11-31-2
Week 6 Predictions

Union Omaha Duplicates Win, Remains Undefeated

Two matches, two victories, two clean sheets.  Not a bad start to the 2021 season.  On Friday, May 7th, Union Omaha defeated Fort Lauderdale CF 2-0, thanks to goals from Evan Conway and Dámi Viader.  With the three points, Union Omaha sits tied for second place in the current USL League One standings.

            In 2020, these two clubs faced each other twice, both victories went to Union Omaha, and the difference was a single goal both times.  Looking to remain undefeated against Fort Lauderdale, the starting lineup for Union Omaha remained the same as their first match of the season, with the exception of Emir Alihodžić replacing Nicolas Firmino in the midfield.  This was the first time Búhos fans saw Alihodžić start a competitive match with the club since his recent signing.

            Fort Lauderdale hosted Union Omaha at DRV PNK Stadium, home to Major League Soccer’s Inter Miami CF.  The expanded field dimensions, in comparison to Union Omaha’s Werner Park, presented possible challenges for the Owls.  Not to be excluded from any Florida equations, afternoon storms rolled through the area prior to kickoff and created slick conditions for both sides to battle, as well.

            From the opening kickoff, Fort Lauderdale controlled much of the possession, swinging passes across the backline.  Union Omaha front men Evan Conway and Greg Hurst took turns applying pressure high, while the midfield and backline only pressed as high as the half-way line.  Fort Lauderdale started conservatively, making easy passes and looking for windows.  Union Omaha, on the other hand, looked for the fast break on the counterattack.  The battle of polar strategies made for an interesting match.

            Fort Lauderdale did a good job of establishing control, maintaining possession, and moving up the field, but the attacks seemed to sputter once they reached the penalty area.  Players seemed reluctant to make runs off the ball and into the box.  Their game plan seemed to include heavy play on the flanks and crosses into the box, but they often found themselves at a numbers disadvantage in the box, resulting in a lot of turnovers.  One benefit of emphasizing flank play is the greater chances for corner kicks.  Fort Lauderdale midfielder George Acosta ended up taking eight corner kicks for Fort Lauderdale in the first half alone.  They did scare Union Omaha a couple of times, but the attempts ultimately went wide.  Wearing an electric blue kit, Union Omaha goalkeeper Rashid Nuhu remained confident between the posts, wasn’t afraid to rush an incoming cross, and reacted quickly enough to attempts that weren’t far from being on frame.

            Union Omaha showed fearlessness by dribbling at the Fort Lauderdale defense.  The Owls even turned the field dimensions into their strength by stretching the defense, loading personnel on one side of the field, and including the two outside backs in attacks.  Union Omaha right back, Ferrety Sousa, showed his eagerness to take on an offensive role, but the evening really belonged to Dámi Viader, Union Omaha left back.  Time after time, Dámi showed strength with the ball, made strong decisions in the build-up play, and wasn’t afraid to get into the final third.  In the 31st minute, Dámi Viader and Union Omaha midfielder Conor Doyle had a beautiful give-and-go set of passes that broke through a cluster of opposition, opened up the flank for Dámi, and allowed him to find Evan Conway at the far post to break the deadlock.

            Suddenly finding themselves down 1-0 at home, Fort Lauderdale immediately increased their pace of play off the ensuing kickoff.  Fort Lauderdale forward Shaan Hundal presented repeated threats and worked hard to close out the first half on a high point.  In the 43rd minute, Fort Lauderdale defender Noah Allen picked up a loose ball during a corner kick and nearly tied the match, but Rashid Nuhu was able to get a palm on the ball and send it over the crossbar.  The halftime whistle blew shortly after and the teams made their way to the locker rooms.

            Just like the start of the first half, Union Omaha pressed high and early in the second.  Greg Hurst was able to disrupt play, gain possession, and make chances for himself on multiple occasions.  Evan Conway made good runs off the ball, enabled teammates to take advantage of the space he created, and posed a threat with each potential long pass.  The Owls continued focusing on counterattacks and fast breaks, resulting in 39.1% of total possession at the end of the day.  When the Owls were able to gain possession, they did well at flooding the Fort Lauderdale half and varying their attacks in the final third.  Omaha was awarded several corner kicks in the second half and made sure to capitalize on one in particular.

            In the 71st minute, a corner kick was played into the box and ended up bouncing around until the ball fell at the feet of JP Scearce, who calmly collected the ball, found Dámi Viader open in the penalty area, and fed him the ball.  With a box congested with players from both sides, Dámi was able to slot the ball low and hard to the back post, tucking it just inside for the Union Omaha insurance policy.

            The remaining 19 minutes, plus four minutes of injury time, were filled with quality chances on both ends of the field.  On offense, JP Scearce had a great attempt from almost 30 yards out that had to be batted wide by the Fort Lauderdale goalkeeper.  Back on defense, Ferrety Sousa found himself as the last defender and was able to execute a perfect slide tackle inside the box to save an attempt on goal.  At the final whistle, it was Union Omaha players and fans celebrating a 2-0 victory.

            Union Omaha now has six points and is tied for second place with Richmond Kickers and Fort Lauderdale CF.  Union Omaha continues their stretch of six road matches with a Wednesday, May 12th matchup against New England Revolution II.  Kickoff is set for 4 PM and will air on ESPN+.  Keep an eye out for announcements from Who Gives A Hoot Media on social media for information about watch parties.

USL League One Predictions: Week 5

Edit: I mistakenly posted that all seven of us predicted a 2-1 Fort Lauderdale win. This was in error, and has been corrected.

So if last week’s results are a predictor of anything, it’s that we know Greenville are very good, and everything else could potentially be thrown out the window (no comment on Union Omaha, as we didn’t play last week).  Tormenta can suddenly score goals, Richmond might be turning into papier mache, and North Texas decided the only time they’d try and defend is after the whistle (stay tuned to see how many additional games Gibran Rayo is suspended for).

I know I for one planned on Fort Lauderdale winning two of their first four matches.  Absolutely.  I never announced them as being recipients of the OCB Memorial Plastic Spoon award.  They can’t be the winner if they never got the spoon mailed to them, can they (insert head tap IMG)?  And hey, look who they get to host this week.  Oh Boy!

Does moving our game from Saturday to Friday honestly help much?  This early in the season, probably not a whole lot.  But we’ll take any breaks we can get, especially with a Friday-Wednesday-Sunday stretch on the road coming up so early.  Does the rest of the Who Gives a Hoot media empire feel the same way?  Let’s find out.

Here is last week’s recap:

BenJonLiamLukeRichRileyRyan
Greenville 4-0 North Texas0100111
Tormenta 3-1 Tucson0000000
Fort Lauderdale 2-1 Richmond0000000
Total0 pts1 pt0 pts0 pts1 pt1 pt1 pt
Week 4 Results
RecordPoints
Rich5-47
Jon4-56
Riley5-45
Liam3-65
Ryan4-54
Ben3-63
Luke3-63
Week 4 Standings

Here are the predictions for week 5

BenJonLiamLukeRichRileyRyan
Fort Lauderdale CF v. Union Omaha (Friday, 18:30)1-21-21-21-21-21-21-2
Richmond Kickers v. South Georgia Tormenta (Saturday, 17:30)2-22-20-12-12-11-21-2
North Carolina FC v. Greenville Triumph (Saturday, 18:00)0-20-21-20-20-30-20-3
North Texas SC v. Chattanooga Red Wolves (Saturday, 19:30)3-23-13-12-02-03-13-2
FC Tucson v. Forward Madison (Saturday, 21:00)1-01-11-02-01-23-01-1
Week 5 Predictions

USL League One Predictions: Week 4

So we learned a few things from last week’s picks, and their corresponding results. We learned that sometimes a group of people think too much alike, that it doesn’t necessarily mean that they know what they’re talking about, and if it seems like they do, most of the time it’s because of dumb luck and/or the law of averages. We almost all figured Richmond v. Greenville would be a stalemate (kinda happened), that North Texas would easily take care of Fort Lauderdale (duh) and that Union Omaha would dispatch of Tormenta (homers….. and duh). And while all of us would have been here for a Fort Lauderdale win in Arlington, we also don’t mind being right.

So we all know 3rd division American soccer can get wonky, but who knew wonky would mean a six-way tie at the top of the table through three weeks, with two different tiebreakers being used to separate teams. What a league! Though I won’t be as excited when we reach the end of the season and two teams level on points are separated by the league’s first tiebreaker (wins), only because we have to do something different for some reason or another.

Here is last week’s recap:

BenJonLiamLukeRichRileyRyan
Richmond 0-1 Greenville0000000
Omaha 2-0 Tormenta1311311
North Texas 4-2 Fort Lauderdale1111111
Total2 pts4 pts2 pts2 pts4 pts2 pts2 pts
Week 3 Results
RecordPoints
Rich4-26
Jon3-35
Liam3-35
Riley4-24
Ben3-33
Luke3-33
Ryan3-33
Week 3 Standings

Here are the predictions for week 4:

BenJonLiamLukeRichRileyRyan
Greenville Triumph v. North Texas SC (Saturday, 18:00)1-33-21-11-11-01-01-0
South Georgia Tormenta v. FC Tucson (Saturday, 18:00)1-11-10-20-30-10-21-2
Fort Lauderdale CF v. Richmond Kickers (Sunday, 18:30)1-22-20-31-20-31-30-2
Week 4 Predictions

Just as an aside; I’ve been taking everybody’s picks in confidence this whole time. You know, because I value the spirit of the competition. I even make sure to tell the first person that reaches out to me my picks ASAP so that I’m on the record, and everybody knows there is no chicanery going on. And even as I go through all of this trouble, Luke (of course) decides to go all “Leroy Jenkins” on me, and puts our whole group chat on notice with his picks. Thankfully, the rest of the team is disciplined. I think right now it’s because they respect the process. Eventually, per the direction of Luke’s picks, it might become, “Gee, I want to do everything opposite of what Luke does. Look at those results….”. I know we’re all within a game of each other with a grand total of 3 individual matches predicted exactly correct, but give a guy a break writing filler for this post with only three matches (all non-UO) this upcoming weekend.