I’ll be honest, this game was 9 days ago but it feels like A LOT longer ago than that. This was match 6 of our season, but the result we got from match 7 made our draw in the desert feel a lot better. We have a few things to unpack from this match so let’s dive in.

1) DAMIA VIADER

I’ve been posting Dami’s stats on Twitter when I write this column because it seems like it is lazy to use space in this column to talk over and over again about Dami’s brilliance and importance to our team. BUT, when a player pops off a 8.9 rating on FotMob and makes team of the week, I’ll make an exception.

Let’s quickly remember this preposterous goal line clearance in the 38′

Dami leads the league in crosses by a preposterous margin. If you added the crosses attempted by the 3rd (32) and 4th (30) ranked players, you would still have less crosses than Dami has (63). The player 2nd on the list plays for Fort Lauderdale who has played 3 more games than Union Omaha. Dami is 2nd in the league in chances created with 22. He is one chance behind a player who also plays for Fort Lauderdale. (All stats current through 6/10).

Okay, now that you understand just how preposterous the stats Dami is putting up are, let’s look at the Toronto game. Dami had 13 of Union Omaha’s 29 crosses and 4 of the 11 chances the team created.

7 of those 29 crosses were successful for the team, and Dami had FIVE of those crosses.

Also this was the first game that Dami had an assist but did not score a goal. I think more assists are on their way.

2) First corner kick goal?

If you were at Rathskeller late night last Wednesday you might have heard a few massive UO fans talking about how Union Omaha hadn’t scored off a corner. Those fans (*cough* me *cough*) are wrong. Last year, JP scored directly off of a corner at North Texas, Elma scored at Tormenta following a corner, and Evan scored at Fort Lauderdale following a corner. Daltyn’s goal fits into that second category, a goal following a corner.

What was a first for the club was a central defender scoring a goal. Congrats Daltyn!

3) Impact Subs

Lots of chatter about the difference the subs made, Boyce won the corner that led to our goal and, as always, Tobi looks like he is on another level. However, our constant drip, drip of chances didn’t seem to change much after the subs came on.

g+ GameFlow: USL League One Regular Season @TorontoFCII v @Union_Omaha on June 02, 2021. #TFCLive #UpTheOwls #TORvOMA pic.twitter.com/cjSlfvFqei

— GameFlow (@GameFlowxPG) June 9, 2021

You can see that we continued to create small chances at about the same rate after the 67′ as we did before. I need to keep learning more so I can have some better xG analysis than that, but hey, 11 points from 6 straight road games is good enough for me.

As of the time that I began typing this post, the 2021 USL League One season is more than 20% complete, with 38 of 168 regular season games in the books. And I don’t mean simply metaphorical books, but Excel workbooks as well. That’s right, it’s time for amateur statisticians (me) to pretend they know what they’re talking about as they publish team ratings. I’ve been sharing the ratings internally amongst the WGaH media empire early in the season, and some members believed early on that these ratings had a little spice, so I’m curious to see if they believe they’ve mellowed out some.

If you didn’t read my introductory article to how I’m calculating ratings this season or need a refresher, feel free to go back to this article to learn more. I will talk briefly about how we got to these ratings, but without further ado let’s take a look (ratings as of matches played through 06.06.2021):

Rank	Team (W-D-L)	Rating
1	Union Omaha (4-2-1)	2.251
2	Greenville Triumph (4-1-0)	1.919
3	Forward Madison (3-2-1)	1.125
4	Chattanooga Red Wolves (3-1-1)	1.030
5	Richmond Kickers (3-1-3)	0.626
6	Toronto FC II (1-3-1)	0.306
7	FC Tucson (2-2-2)	-0.111
8	North Texas SC (2-1-3)	-0.131
9	Fort Lauderdale CF (4-1-5)	-0.419
10	New England Revolution II (2-1-3)	-0.833
11	South Georgia Tormenta (2-0-6)	-1.417
12	North Carolina FC (0-1-4)	-1.666

So here are a couple of broad takeaways at first glance:

• Union Omaha being ahead of Greenville Triumph by a moderately healthy margin, even with a loss
• There is a rather wide disparity between teams that are either .500 or just one game below .500

The first one is fairly simple to explain away: Union Omaha just finished a very successful road trip. Points on the road matter. For example, Union Omaha’s 2-0 win at Fort Lauderdale was worth twice as much as North Texas’ 4-2 home win versus them two weekends before. So not only are we accumulating points on the road, but we also don’t have as many ho-hum results at home to water down those results. In fact, here are the three most impressive results so far this season:

Date	Match	Rating
04.17.2021	New England 0-3 Richmond	5.177 (Richmond)
05.07.2021	Fort Lauderdale 0-2 Omaha	4.209 (Omaha)
06.06.2021	Madison 1-2 Omaha	4.133 (Omaha)

But even with more positive results, Union Omaha could still cede the top spot to Greenville (now that they’re actually playing again). We have some home games coming up, and those games will balance out the strength of schedule we’ve played so far. Union Omaha’s current strength of schedule played is 0.522, which is quite impressive given we are responsible for a portion of that record of 1-2-4 (1). For example, you have to go all the way down to New England in 10th place in the ratings to find a team that has played a more difficult schedule so far this season.

As for the disparity between similar teams in the middle, it usually can boil down to just one game. See above with Richmond Kickers, who currently have the highest rated game so far this season. However, without a great performance this upcoming weekend against Madison their rating will suffer. Not just because of the potential for a loss, but also because Richmond is playing their eighth match. Remember, once a team has played eight matches their best and worst results are removed from their calculation, as those matches are being considered outliers. So, removing their best and worst game will likely hurt Richmond’s rating, probably more so than it would most other teams. Let’s compare them to Union Omaha for example, who are also about to play their eighth game this weekend:

Team	Date	Best/Worst	Result	Value
Richmond	04.17.2021	Best	New England 0-3 Richmond	5.177
Richmond	05.02.2021	Worst	Fort Lauderdale 2-1 Richmond	-1.953
Omaha	05.07.2021	Best	Fort Lauderdale 0-2 Omaha	4.209
Omaha	05.26.2021	Worst	Madison 2-1 Omaha	-1.189

So Richmond may only be dropping a slightly higher net value than Omaha, but they do so with a lot less buffer to play with. I’ll try to not simply throw the rest of the individual match values at you, but here are both team’s 2nd best and 2nd worst results at the moment, both of which are likely to remain part of how their overall rating is calculated next week:

Team	Date	Best/Worst	Result	Value
Richmond	06.05.2021	2nd best	Richmond 3-2 New England	1.480
Richmond	05.29.2021	2nd worst	Chattanooga 2-1 Richmond	-1.190
Omaha	06.06.2021	2nd best	Madison 1-2 Omaha	4.133
Omaha	06.02.2021	2nd worst	Toronto 1-1 Omaha	1.721

The difference in each team’s net value from the above matches is quite stark. That’s why losing this upcoming weekend, even though it’s on the road against a strong opponent like Madison, could cause Richmond to shift considerably in the order that teams are rated.

I will post updates to these ratings each week through the rest of the season. I’m not sure how much any of us will get out of looking ahead to the weekend slate with ratings in mind and, frankly, I’m just happy to be here talking about numbers with other number nerds, but let’s do it (Note: in the event this is published on 06.10.2021 or later, I will not consider the TFC II v. Tormenta match on 06.09.2021):

Date	Home	Away	Quick Synopsis
06.12.2021	Union Omaha (2.251)	New England Revolution II (-0.833)	This is Union Omaha’s eighth game, so their outlier matches will be removed after this match. Anything less than a two goal victory at home will marginally help their rating at best, or possibly even lower it.
06.12.2021	Forward Madison (1.125)	Richmond Kickers (0.626)	As mentioned before, Richmond are probably more affected by this match than Madison.
06.12.2021	FC Tucson (-0.111)	Chattanooga Red Wolves (1.030)	The fact this match is simply being played helps both, they currently have the lowest and third lowest strength of schedule in the league.
06.13.2021	North Texas SC (-0.131)	Greenville Triumph (1.919)	This is the kind of match that has one-sided potential. North Texas probably doesn’t suffer much with a loss, but both teams can gain considerably with a win since the match is in Arlington.
06.13.2021	South Georgia Tormenta (-1.417)	Toronto FC II (0.306)	The same can probably be said of both matches they’ll play this week, but results instead of draws will shape Toronto’s rating considerably given they’ve only played five matches.

Thanks for reading, everyone. I look forward to sharing these updates with you from now until the cup is lifted!

Footnotes:

(1) So if you calculate our strength of schedule the way I’m calculating it (which is counting each match individually, therefore Madison counts twice, for example), you get a winning percentage of 0.522. But since we’ve played those teams that means, naturally, our results against them are included. And since our record is 4-2-1, that means those teams combined records, when you don’t include our results, would actually be even better.

Raw data for Tormenta, Fort Lauderdale, Revs 2, Greenville, Toronto, and Madison (twice):
Their overall combined records: 19-10-17 (.522)
Their combined records when you remove our results: 17-8-12 (.568)

Return

If you turned on ESPN+ on Sunday, June 6^th and saw Union Omaha playing Forward Madison in Omaha, you’re TV was not playing tricks on you.  Yes, Union Omaha was in Madison, Wisconsin ten days prior.  Yes, Union Omaha was back for another match.  And most importantly – yes, this match finished with better results than the prior visit.  Union Omaha would end the six-game road tour with a 2-1 winagainst Forward Madison.

            The Flamingos entered the match on Sunday undefeated and eager to continue their climb up the USL League One standings.  Before kickoff, both teams were tied for third place with 11 points.  Despite limited capacity, over 2,000 fans showed up for the sold-out match at Breese Stevens Field.  The atmosphere was jovial before kickoff, but that’s probably because it was “Bring Your Dog Day” at the stadium and the four-legged friends were there in full force, as well.

            In Week 8, the two clubs met for their first showdown of the 2021 season.  Forward Madison scored the lone goal in the 58^th minute off of a defensive error.  The Flamingos utilized both sides of the field, incorporated many players in each possession, and showcased their calmness and organization while on offense.  Week 9 played out a bit differently.

            Forward Madison started the match and immediately looked to pressure the right corner, but Union Omaha goalkeeper Rashid Nuhu easily collected the cross into the box.  During Union Omaha’s following possession, Nuhu sent the ball far into the Forward Madison half and goalkeeper Philip Breno started another offensive series.  Fans of both clubs expected Union Omaha to send a lone disrupter, while the rest of the team sat back slightly and waited for Forward Madison to approach the Union Omaha half of the field.  Here’s where Union Omaha head coach Jay Mims changed his tactic for this visit to Madison.

            When the Flamingos had possession in their own half, the Owls pressed high, early, and aggressively.  The two forwards, Emir Alihodžić and Greg Hurst, set a high line for initial point of pressure.  Immediately behind them, the disruption duo of Nic Firmino and JP Scearce thwarted many attempts by Forward Madison to utilize their players in the middle to swing the ball and distribute the ball away from pressure.  Forward Madison still had a majority of the possession to start the match, but their possessions were shorter, under greater duress, and less organized.  Omaha’s tactic prevented Madison from settling into their possession, gaining confidence, and forced key central players like center midfielder Aaron Molloy and center forward Jake Keegan to the flanks to support their teammates.  This resulted in a lot of key turnovers for Union Omaha.  You know what else helps take a quality team like Forward Madison out of their rhythm?  An early conceded goal.  Let me be more specific: an early goal conceded via an own goal.

In the 7^th minute, Union Omaha had a throw-in inside of Forward Madison’s half.  Dámi Viader threw to Nic Firmino, who centered it to JP Scearce.  Firmino had the great presence of mind to make a run to the corner and Scearce rewarded him with a through-ball to the corner.  Not wasting any time, Firmino centered the ball into the penalty area, near the penalty spot, where Emir Alihodžić was tussling with Tyler Allen and Audi Jepson.  What happened next was a flurry of legs attempting to connect with the ball.  With the blink of an eye, the ball was in the net, but what happened?  While Forward Madison players and fans were trying to solve that puzzle, Union Omaha players and fans were whipped into a celebratory frenzy.  By the end of the match, the goal would be credited to Tyler Allen as an own goal.  An early goal on the road is a great way to throw a wrench into the home team’s game plan.  It’s also a great way to remove the home crowd from the match for a while.

      Within the next three minutes, Union Omaha had opportunities to double their lead, but none of them found their way home.  The Owls had a free kick in the 9^th minute and two corner kicks immediately afterward.  There was an improvement in set piece discipline, as services from Dámi Viader had greater success of connecting with a teammate.  The set-piece goal against Toronto FC II earlier in the week must have increased confidence in the Owls.

      The rest of the first half was a process of trial and error for Forward Madison.  Due to Union Omaha’s defensive setup, Madison players were being pulled out of position.  Center midfielder Aaron Molloy was camped out farther back than usual.  Under ideal circumstances, Molloy is the playmaker and maestro for the offense.  Molloy likes to play long passes to keep the defense unbalanced.  Against Omaha, he was often seen settling in his own half and providing relief to players on the right side of the field.  His absence in Union Omaha’s half came at a great relief to the Owl’s defense.  With his caliber removed from scoring opportunities, Forward Madison had to look elsewhere for inspiration.  Here are some numbers showing how Molloy was limited to maintaining possession, instead of exercising creativity in Union Omaha’s half:

Week 8		Week 9
Long Passes	Short Passes	Long Passes	Short Passes
12	66	3	78

            Other players were pulled into providing relief, as well.  Left midfielder Audi Jepson resorted to floating into the middle of the field, filling the void left behind by Aaron Molloy’s absence.  He still found opportunities to work along the left sideline, combining with left forward Tyler Allen to battle for possession.  No one on the left side of the field had a shot on target in the first half.  If you include left back Jiro Barriga Toyama into the stats, the three players lined up on the left side of the field only completed two long passes, both coming from Jiro.

            A ray of hope came for the Flamingos in the 35^th minute.  After Dámi Viader fouled Derek Gebhard, Forward Madison set up a set piece in a threatening position.  The initial threat was cleared by Union Omaha defender Daltyn Knutson, but Madison left midfielder Justin Suckow recovered the loose ball in the middle of the field, evaded Devin Boyce, and found Jake Keegan at the top of the 18-yard box.  Surrounded by defenders Daltyn Knutson and Jacob Crull, Keegan was still able to make his way between the duo and find a goal-scoring opportunity.  After turning over his right shoulder, he was faced with a clear window of the goal and slotted home a perfectly-placed shot.  Goalkeeper Rashid Nuhu wasn’t even able to make a genuine attempt at saving the shot.  The ball was placed too well and had too much pace.  The goal evened the scoreboard, was Keegan’s fourth of the season, and Forward Madison’s first goal scored in the first half.  The first half would end in a tie, just like every other matchup between the two clubs.

            The second half began and Union Omaha had to find a way to quash any momentum from Forward Madison.  That opportunity came during a free kick in the 51^st minute.  Dámi Viader was fouled inside the opposing half and opened the door for a goal-scoring opportunity.  The ball sat inside Forward Madison’s half, on the right side, and was soon passed down the sideline to Devin Boyce.  While carrying the ball, Boyce was able to pick out Emir Alihodžić near the top of Forward Madison’s goal area, the 6-yard box.  Boyce crossed the ball and Alihodžić was able to head the ball toward the near post.  Goalkeeper Philip Breno lept to his side, completely parallel to the ground, arm stretched out, and could only get his fingertips on the ball.  The net danced, but not to the tune of the winds.  This time, it was to the spirit and good fortunes of Union Omaha.  The players rushed into celebrations, fans jumped with arms held high, and vocal chords were pushed to their limit.  It wasn’t a last-second, Disney-style finish, though.  There were still 39 minutes, plus extra time, to be played.

            Forward Madison made some adjustments almost immediately upon the restart.  Right midfielder Justin Suckow floated in toward the middle and often paired-up with center midfielder Aaron Molloy.  The Flamingos were looking to keep Molloy more central and provide him the support he needed to be able to return to his strengths.  The pair of midfielders were able to push their positions higher up the field than they could in the first half, causing a lot more build-up play on the flanks. 

Right back Christian Diaz and right forward Derek Gebhard worked together quite a bit, as well.  Diaz covered a lot of ground in the second half in order to secure the right flank.  Gebhard made a positional concession and sat back much farther on the field than he would normally like.  His new positioning worked in his favor, as there were several moments in the second half when the quartet of Gebhard, Diaz, Molloy, and Suckow executed some effective combination play, got behind the Union Omaha defense, and could look to create chances.  By the end of the second half, the four players were only able to amass the following stats:

Goals	Shots on Target	Shots off Target	Unsuccessful Crosses	Successful Crosses
0	1	2	10	4

      Even with an extended extra time, the Flamingos were unable to earn a tying goal.  With the loss, Forward Madison lost their first match of the season and found themselves in fourth place with 11 points.  Their next match is another home match, this time against fifth-placed Richmond Kickers on Saturday, June 12^th at 7 PM (CST) on ESPN+.

      With the win and three points, Union Omaha is the temporary crown-wearer of the league with 14 points.  The Owls finished their six-match road trip and return home to Omaha for a matchup against ninth-placed New England Revolution II.  The match is scheduled for Saturday, June 12^th at 7 PM (CST) on ESPN+.  Make sure to arrive at Werner Park early and join the tailgate beforehand.  There will be food, beverages, games, music, and plenty of supporters to meet.

            Did you know that Greenland has never been able to become a member of FIFA, UEFA, or CONCACAF soccer federations?  The country is unable to grow grass for soccer fields due to the permafrost that covers the land.  You’ll have an easier time becoming a member of The Parliament, I promise.  We don’t require grass for membership, so you’re in luck.  Who Gives A Hoot Media doesn’t require memberships, either.  We’ll continue to dish out our finest content for all of you, free of charge.  Make sure to check back to the website frequently because we have regular updates of podcast episodes and articles for your reading pleasure.  Be sure to find us on social media, as well.  We appreciate your continued following and look forward to sharing more entertainment with you.

The season seems to be coming at us faster than we can keep up. I wonder if I’m only now thinking this because I didn’t walk into my apartment until 3:00 Monday morning after driving back from Madison? Maybe, maybe not, but my brain felt like it was floating in a wave pool when I logged onto work later that morning.

And here it is on Wednesday afternoon, and I’m still posting this column that I’m sure fewer people pay attention to than I would hope to see. And since I am all about that content, stay tuned for my first ratings column either Thursday or Friday. I promise it is everything you dreamed about, if you’re the kind of person that dreams about entering nested formulas into Excel that don’t produce #N/A errors.

At the time of this typing, I have also yet to receive Ben’s picks. Should I ping him again? Will he get his picks in before I hit publish in the upper right corner (He did, at 3:53 pm)?

	Ben	Jon	Liam	Luke	Rich	Riley	Ryan
Fort Lauderdale 2-2 Madison	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	3 pts
Toronto 1-1 Omaha	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts
Richmond 3-2 New England	1 pt	1 pt	1 pt	1 pt	1 pt	0 pts	0 pts
North Carolina 1-2 Fort Lauderdale	1 pt	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	1 pt	0 pts	1 pt
Tormenta 1-0 Chattanooga	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts
Tucson 1-1 Toronto	2 pts	2 pts	3 pts	0 pts	0 pts	3 pts	2 pts
Madison 1-2 Omaha	1 pt	0 pts	1 pt	1 pt	1 pt	1 pt	1 pt
Totals	5 pts	3 pts	5 pts	2 pts	3 pts	4 pts	7 pts

	Record	Points
Ryan	18-20	31
Jon	17-21	29
Riley	14-24	25
Liam	13-25	25
Rich	16-22	24
Ben	12-26	15
Luke	10-28	10

	Ben	Jon	Liam	Luke	Rich	Riley	Ryan
Toronto FC II v. South Georgia Tormenta (Wednesday, 18:00)	2-2	2-2	1-1	1-1	2-0	1-1	2-0
Forward Madison v. Richmond Kickers (Saturday, 19:00)	1-2	2-1	1-0	0-1	1-1 🏝	2-0	2-1
Union Omaha v. New England Revolution II (Saturday, 19:00)	3-1	3-1	1-0	2-0	1-0	2-0	1-0
FC Tucson v. Chattanooga Red Wolves (Saturday, 21:00)	1-2	1-1	2-1 🏝	1-1	0-1	1-2	1-2
North Texas SC v. Greenville Triumph (Sunday, 18:00)	1-1	2-1	1-1	3-1	0-2	1-1	1-2
South Georgia Tormenta v. Toronto FC II (Sunday, 19:00)	0-2	0-2	1-0	1-0	0-1	1-2	1-2

Are you ready to turn Madison, Wisconsin lightning yellow?  On Sunday, June 6^th, Union Omaha pays a second visit, in as many weeks, to the Flamingos of Forward Madison.  The first match didn’t fare so well for the Owls, losing 1-0.  The club looks to atone for the loss, return the kind gesture to Forward Madison, and provide a buffer between the two clubs in the standings.

            What happened last time?

            Forward Madison executed a well-balanced offensive game plan and kept numbers behind the ball on defense.  The Flamingos goal came off of an errant clearance, so awareness and focus will have to remain high for the full 90 minutes.  Union Omaha will also have to dig into the trenches in the middle third of the field.  The Owls disrupted a lot of the flow there in the last match, but couldn’t generate any quality offense off of turnovers.  A return from Evan Conway would spark some quality offense, as well.  The forward has been out of commission for the past two matches and there hasn’t been any release of information regarding his status.  If he’s able to get some minutes, keep your fingers crossed that the previous chemistry is still alive and well.

            What to expect:

1. Forward Madison possession.  Last time, the team looked strong, calm, and composed on the ball.  Their passes were efficient and purposeful.  The balanced distribution led to a balanced offense and kept Union Omaha unable to predict their next plan.
2. Battle for the halfline.  The middle third of the field is usually the battle ground to disrupt possession, establish dominance, and limit the opponent’s game plan.  There’s little doubt that Forward Madison did better to capture the territory and turn it to their advantage.
3. Set pieces.  There will be corners and there will be free kicks.  Lots of them.  We all know this.  The unknown is how many, if any, will be converted to goals.  Forward Madison use their ace for their set pieces, right midfielder Aaron Molloy.  He can place the ball well, so Union Omaha’s defense will have to be on their toes.  On the flip side, this past Wednesday, Union Omaha finally scored a goal off of a set piece this season.  Let’s hope that opened the flood gates.

What to watch for:

1. It was mentioned earlier, but bears repeating:  Will we see Evan Conway?
2. How will Union Omaha defend against the dangerous backfield duo of Barriga Toyama and Sukow?  Furthermore, how will Union Omaha contain Gebhard and Keegan?
3. What plan does Jay Mims have for breaking down the Forward Madison defense?

These two clubs have combined for three goals in three matches.  Small errors could lead to big dividends.  It’s going to be a fierce match, but expect to be entertained.  These are two very good clubs.  Forward Madison is in vaulted company with Greenville as the only teams remaining who are undefeated.  There are many reasons to want to beat the Flamingos, so add that to the list.  Madison ended Union Omaha’s undefeated streak, so it only seems fitting that Omaha should return the favor.

Whether you’re at home, at Rathskellar Bier Haus for the watch party, or made the trip to Wisconsin, everyone here at Who Gives A Hoot Media hopes you cheer loudly and passionately for the Owls.  This is the last away match of six, so next week will be a home match.  Cheer them on to victory against Forward Madison and welcome them home with enthusiasm next weekend.  As always, we’ll continue to give you the content you want and deserve about your favorite team, Union Omaha.  Keep an eye out for a new episode of the podcast, data breakdowns, updated predictions from all of us here at Who Gives A Hoot, and other articles to fill the void between matches.

Welcome to Week 9 of the USL League One season.  This week, Union Omaha gets to face an opponent for the first time: Toronto FC II.  The match will take place at Grande Sports World in Casa Grande, Arizona.  Kickoff time is set for 9 PM (CST) and will air on ESPN+.

            Toronto FC II is coming off a disappointing 1-1 draw against North Texas SC from last Saturday.  The Young Reds were ready to leave Texas with three points, but Alex Bruce decided to send Toronto home with a parting gift – a goal in the 90’+ 6 minutes into injury time.  The club has only played three matches this season and they are remarkably balanced in their results: 1 win, 1 loss, 1 draw, 4 goals scored, 4 goals conceded, and 4 total points in the standings.  I’m sure there’s a sticker or button out there somewhere they’d be honored to receive.

            Union Omaha is looking to put a painful 1-0 loss to Forward Madison behind them and get back to the standard of play and excellence with which they are familiar.  A goal from Justin Sukow in the 58^th minute was enough to carry the Flamingos past the Owls in the match and the standings.  Union Omaha head coach Jay Mims released a video on social media and voiced optimism, despite the loss.  In the video, he stated eagerness to let the players recover and prepare for tonight’s battle in Arizona.

            Toronto FC II and Union Omaha have never played one another, so tonight will be interesting.  After watching their matches and reviewing their stats, the Young Reds are pretty one dimensional.  Offensive production comes almost entirely from the left side.  Left back Luca Petrasso and left midfielder Themi Antonoglou generate a lot of traffic and produce chances for forward Garrett McLaughlin, the leading scorer for the team.  A hiccup in their offense is their central midfielders, Enric Bermat and Mehdi Essoussi.  When the team is advancing up the field, Essoussi likes to drive forward and penetrate the final third, while Bermat often seeks comfort in passing back to the backline.  This can, and does, create confusion and frustration for the topline because of the frequent mixed signals.

            Here’s three key areas to watch for during tonight’s match:

• Initial point of pressure:

You’ve read about their offensive tendencies, so how will Jay Mims look to counter those habits and turn them into opportunities for the offense?  The Owls have plenty of speed and endurance up top, a surplus of aggression in the midfield, and an unforgiving backline.  Union Omaha could easily organize a game plan that will allow them to corner Toronto FC II into a small area and force turnovers.

• Closing down the lanes:

This feeds off of the first area, but deserves to be discussed alone.  One of the biggest deficits in Union Omaha’s pressure is their lack of shape as the ball moves around the field.  Don’t get me wrong, the players keep their lines with great discipline, but I’m talking about taking the defensive pressure to another level.  Some coaches like to set up triangles, some like squares or diamonds.  Either way, as that shape is transitioned around the field and communicated among the players, the opposition has a greater level of difficulty finding passing lanes and opportunities to move the ball up the field.  If the Owls can tighten up this defensive procedure, look for Union Omaha goalkeeper Rashid Nuhu to have a lonely night between the posts.

• Recover that swagger:

Last week’s match was not fun.  There, I said it.  Last season, the team went undefeated through eight matches before losing for the first time in club history.  What happened after that first lost?  They lost two more before finding their winning ways again.  This year, the club went four matches before losing.  Sure, there are more matches this season, so a missed opportunity here or there is easy to excuse, but the team has to move past the loss and regain control of the season.  With the additions to the already-loaded roster, and the great coaching staff, there’s no reason this team shouldn’t be battling for the top two spots in the standings and playoff race.  Let’s hope the team can return to their winning ways.

            Tonight’s match is the last time Toronto FC II will play a match in Casa Grande, Arizona.  The next time the Young Reds have a home match, it will take place in Osceola Heritage Park in Kissimmee, Florida.  The club has won and lost a match while in Casa Grande and look to close out their temporary residency on a high note.

            Union Omaha is still plugging their way through a six-match road trip and Toronto is the fifth match in that tour.  During the excursion, the club has racked-up three wins, one draw, and one loss.  A win tonight will see the club rise in the standings, tie Greenville for first place, and set up a high-profile matchup with Forward Madison on Sunday afternoon.

            Tonight’s match has the makings to be a demonstrative statement for both clubs.  A win for either side would cast away doubts currently looming over the club.  A loss for either side would double the doubts of the club’s direction.  Make sure to send your good vibes down to Casa Grande and the Owls.  They need your support, so show them some love.

            Who Gives A Hoot Media has been churning out material every week to fill your every Union Omaha-based desire.  Everybody involved continues to follow their passion for the Owls and make sure you are up to date with the club and the league.  If you’re enjoying the material and the podcasts, please make sure to send the goods to a friend and spread the word about our awesomeness.  Our content is only going to get better, so you might want to start wearing padding when you check in on the site because you’re going to fall in love with us faster than Neymar goes to ground.  You’ll want to spend more time with us than referees give Forward Madison injury time.  And you know what?  We’re okay with that. 

Thank God for the holiday weekend and the short turnaround. I can use it as an excuse to say that I don’t have much time to talk about last week. And there’s not much to talk about with last week, obviously, because we all sucked. How does a group of people go a combined 7-42? I honestly don’t know, and I hope I never have both the time and opportunity to find out.

	Ben	Jon	Liam	Luke	Rich	Riley	Ryan
Madison 1-0 Omaha	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts
Toronto 1-2 Tucson	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts
New England 1-2 Ft Lauderdale	0 pts	0 pts	3 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts
North Texas 1-1 Toronto	0 pts	2 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	3 pts	0 pts
Chattanooga 2-1 Richmond	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	3 pts	3 pts
Tormenta 1-3 Madison	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	1 pt	0 pts	0 pts
North Carolina 1-2 Tucson	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	1 pt
Total Points	0 pts	2 pts	3 pts	0 pts	1 pt	6 pts	4 pts

	Record	Points
Jon	15-16	26
Ryan	14-17	24
Rich	13-18	21
Riley	12-19	21
Liam	10-21	20
Ben	8-23	10
Luke	8-23	8

Here are the picks for week 9 (picks where somebody is all alone with a result are noted with 🏝):

	Ben	Jon	Liam	Luke	Rich	Riley	Ryan
Fort Lauderdale CF v. Forward Madison (Tuesday, 18:30)	2-1	1-2	1-0	1-0	1-0	1-2	2-2🏝
Toronto FC II v. Union Omaha (Wednesday, 21:00)	1-2	1-2	0-2	0-1	0-1	1-2	1-2
Richmond Kickers v. New England Revolution II (Saturday, 17:30)	2-1	2-0	2-0	1-0	1-0	1-1	1-1
North Carolina FC v. Fort Lauderdale CF (Saturday, 18:00)	0-2	1-1	1-1	1-1	0-2	1-0 🏝	0-2
South Georgia Tormenta v. Chattanooga Red Wolves (Saturday, 19:00)	1-3	1-3	1-2	1-1 🏝	0-2	0-2	1-2
FC Tucson v. Toronto FC II (Saturday, 21:00)	2-2	2-2	1-1	1-0	1-0	1-1	2-2
Forward Madison v. Union Omaha (Sunday, 17:00)	0-2	1-1 🏝	0-1	0-1	0-1	1-3	0-1

A week ago, Olivia Rodrigo’s debut album, SOUR, was released. It seems as if I’m not the only person in my age bracket to reallly like the album. If you have not listened, I’d encourage you to at minimum read that review and consider listening. As a Union Omaha fan, the songs will hit just a little bit harder after what happened on Wednesday at the historic home of the Madison Blues, a semi-professional baseball team, Breese Stevens Field. Time to relieve this horror show, so but put on SOUR and let’s dive in.

1) What went wrong?

So it definitely FELT like this was the worst game we’ve played in a long time. Personally, I drew the line back to game away to Tormenta FC on Sept 11, 2020 for the last time we had such a disjointed game. Visually, it seemed like we were incredibly wasteful in possession of the ball. I thought this would be easy to confirm by looking at a few metrics that might show we did not value the ball as much as our opponent: interceptions by Forward, low passing accuracy by Union Omaha, throw-ins by Forward, and recoveries by Forward. Let’s look at them in order.

Interceptions: defined by Opta as “where a player reads an opponent’s pass and intercepts the ball by moving into the line of the intended pass.”
Forward had 11 to our 16.

Passing Accuracy: our passing accuracy was 83.1%. That is 5% better than our season average which is 78% and the best single game mark we’ve achieved all season.

Throw-ins: According to FotMob, we had 18 throw-ins won to Forwards 13.

Recoveries: defined by Opta as “where a player recovers the ball in a situation where neither team has possession or where the ball has been played directly to him by an opponent, thus securing possession for their team.” The league (nor FotMob) does not provide Recovery totals, but this Chalkboard looks like we had more recoveries than Madison, maybe even dominating the category.

One other thing I considered was the possibility we piled up those stats in the final 30 minutes of the game, when we had to chase a result. But as you can see from the chart above, the rate of recoveries dropped slightly, but not dramatically after the 60′.

So, I’m a bit stumped honestly. If you have an answer, hit me up on Twitter!

2) Can data confirm the “slow start” narrative?

So I wasn’t able to find anything to indicate we were particularly wasteful in possession, so maybe we just had a “slow start,” which is definitely not a data-driven term. However, there is good data-based evidence that we dominated the game after they scored. Let’s start with the GameFlow data from American Soccer Analysis.

g+ GameFlow: USL League One Regular Season @ForwardMSNFC v @Union_Omaha on May 26, 2021. #FullMingo. #UpTheOwls #MADvOMA pic.twitter.com/8JtjOqTNir

— GameFlow (@GameFlowxPG) May 27, 2021

What a great representation of the flow of the game. We basically created no chances, nothing even above 0.05 xG, in the 1st half. Madison had one spell of pressure in the 2nd half when they got their goal, and then we dominated chances for the rest of the game with extreme pressure at the end. Madison was still the better team by the overall xG metric, but if that isn’t a slow start, I don’t know what is! Possession heatmaps back this up as well.

Union Omaha (before 60′)

Union Omaha (after 60′)

Forward Madison (before 60′)

Forward Madison (after 60′)

Looking through those four charts two things stand out to me: Just how much we had Madison on the back foot during the final 30′ of the game and how little we played down the left in the final 30′ of the game. (Speaking of things happening on the Union Omaha left, we’re getting closer to the “Is Dami Viader the best player in League One?” column, but not quite there yet.)

To put some qualitative analysis to these charts, it is clear that we had too little too late. And what we offered late didn’t play to our strengths. However, after these first two items, I’m not sure we played as badly as I thought we did.

3) How much did this game matter?

There are two aspects of this loss to be dealt with. The first is emotional. I started this column talking about the best breakup album to come out in years. You can tell my emotional state. The good news, emotionally, is we will return to the home of the Madison Radicals, Breese Stevens Field, next Sunday and have a chance to immediately, and brutally, turn the page. The bad news is, of course, that we could play that badly again which would hurt even more. We are after all a streaky team, in 21 matches we’ve gone undefeated for 8 matches (plus preseason), 3 losses in a row, undefeated for 9 matches (plus preseason), 1 loss.

The second is the affect it has on our goals of becoming Champions and the good news in that regard is this game had very little effect on our season long goal. According to SportsClubStats, we are now 2.6% less likely to make the playoffs. Not ideal, but pretty darn good for an emotional gut punch of a game.

That’s all I’ve got, grieve the loss, take a cleansing breath, remember to listen to SOUR, and have a great holiday weekend!

Even if last weekend’s games were kinda ho-hum, an analysis of our picks would suggest otherwise. The group combined to hit 25% of the exact scorelines (we had hit less than 9% before then), there was wild disparity amongst the group, and at the bottom was one unfamiliar face (Rich), and one very familiar face (Luke) merely being able to ascertain that Greenville are good. I know that I personally am running on borrowed time, so I’m going to keep applying the burns to them until they become undeniably cringe (for the record, they are only moderately cringe at the moment).

Speaking of which, I believe it is time to fade me. For those of you unfamiliar with gambling terminology, fading is when you start to intentionally bet against somebody’s predictions for whatever reason. I’ve correctly predicted 7 out of 10 matches the past two weeks, including two draws. So if you’ve been riding my train, a couple of things:

• First of all, you are bold. I’ve found a website that aggregates USL League One betting lines from a multitude of markets, and most of the ones offering USL League One matches are either in Eastern Europe or Southeast Asia. Most of these sites have, ummm, numerous warnings about likelihood of receiving payment.
• You’re welcome for the winnings, but there’s a reason I live in Omaha, Nebraska and am a BI developer by trade. So if you gamble on other sports, and would like me to make a selection so that you can go opposite, slide into those DMs.

	Ben	Jon	Liam	Luke	Rich	Riley	Ryan
Richmond 0-0 North Carolina	0 pts	2 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	2 pts	0 pts
Chattanooga 2-1 Fort Lauderdale	0 pts	3 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	3 pts	3 pts
Tormenta 0-1 Greenville	3 pts	3 pts	3 pts	1 pt	1 pt	0 pts	3 pts
Toronto FC II 2-1 North Texas	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts	0 pts
Week 7 Total	3 pts	8 pts	3 pts	1 pt	1 pt	5 pts	6 pts

	Record	Points
Jon	14-10	24
Rich	12-12	20
Ryan	12-12	20
Liam	9-15	17
Riley	10-14	15
Ben	8-16	10
Luke	8-16	8

Here are the picks for week 8 (picks where somebody is all alone with a result are noted with 🏝:

	Ben	Jon	Liam	Luke	Rich	Riley	Ryan
Forward Madison v. Union Omaha (Wednesday, 19:00)	0-1	1-2	1-2	0-1	0-1	1-3	0-3
Toronto FC II v. FC Tucson (Wednesday, 21:00)	2-1	2-1	1-0	1-0	2-0	2-0	2-2 🏝
New England Revolution II v. Fort Lauderdale (Friday, 16:00)	1-3	1-3	1-0🏝	1-1	0-2	0-0	1-2
North Texas SC v. Toronto FC II (Saturday, 17:30)	3-2	2-2	2-0	1-0	0-1 🏝	1-1	2-1
Chattanooga Red Wolves v. Richmond Kickers (Saturday, 19:00)	1-1	1-1	2-2	0-1 🏝	1-1	2-1	2-1
South Georgia Tormenta v. Forward Madison (Saturday, 19:00)	0-0	2-1	1-0	1-0	0-2 🏝	1-1	2-0
North Carolina FC v. FC Tucson (Saturday, 19:00)	0-0	1-0	2-1	1-1	1-0	1-0	0-1 🏝

On Wednesday, May 26^th, Union Omaha and Forward Madison will take the field at Breese Stevens Field and face off for the first time this season.  The regional rivals have only played two matches, but they remain undefeated.  The last time Madison played was in Saturday, May 15^th, defeating North Carolina FC 1-0 at home.

In 2020, the two clubs faced one another twice and both contests ended in draws: 1-1 in Omaha and 0-0 in Madison.  Both of the goals scored last season came as a result of set pieces.  Madison scored a header off of a direct kick within the first ten minutes and Omaha converted a penalty kick twenty minutes later.  The second match turned into a messy match, as the center ref awarded five yellow cards.

            Wednesday’s match could easily blend the previous two matches together.  Both clubs play a fast and furious style, both are physical, and yet both clubs are capable of settling the ball and executing a technically sound match.  It’s anyone’s guess as to whether that happens.  What can we expect from the upcoming match?  Let’s consider a three things:

1. Set pieces.  They were touched upon earlier, but it’s important to reconsider the issue.  The first match saw 19 fouls and the foul count in the second match increased to 25.  With the average foul happening every 3-4 minutes, there will be plenty of opportunities for both teams to rehearse their designed set pieces.  These plays become more important as the spot of the foul edges closer to the goal.  A possible play design for the set pieces leads me to next topic.
2. Aerial battles.  When the two teams first met in Omaha, the Owls won 75% of the aerial battles.  Later in the same season, Forward Madison was able edge the percentages closer to a 50/50 split.  Union Omaha has done a good job of controlling the airspace, but Forward Madison will take the field tomorrow with a concerted effort to establish control of the air in order to vary their attack options, which leads to the third point.
3. Final third possession.  There’s no doubt that both teams play it fast and loose.  What’s more in doubt, especially for Forward Madison, is how they look to solve the stingy Union Omaha defense.  Teams have had a tough time working through the Owls defense.  Case in point: Union Omaha has only conceded one goal so far this season.  They’re fast, physical, and cover one another’s back when needed.  When facing a highly-calculated Greenville offense, Union Omaha was able to limit the Triumph’s shots on goal to 3.  Forward Madison faces a tall task, but not one that’s impossible.  Of the three points discussed, this one will be the most entertaining to watch.

There are a lot of unknowns with this matchup and that makes it all the more enticing.  The points discussed above may be few in number, but may also prove to be crucial to a victory for either side.  With neither side able to take three points from either match, Wednesday’s match could break that streak.  Add to that the fact that both sides went scoreless during last season’s match in Madison, Wisconsin and you may witness another streak breaking before your eyes.

Kickoff is set for 7 PM (CST) and will air on ESPN+.  Settle in for a two-hour broadcast filled with plenty of drama and intrigue.  You can be sure the match will be fast-paced, physical, and full of emotions.  What’s less sure is the combined total of yellow cards and goals during the match.  For that, there’s no other way to find out than by tuning in.

Remember that time I encouraged you to continue visiting the Who Gives a Hoot Media website?  Me, too.  What sparked that memory?  The fondness that all of us here at Who Gives a Hoot have for our readers and listeners.  While we won’t ask you for money like any PBS broadcast, we will continue to profess our love for Union Omaha, USL League One, and supporters of our efforts.  Let’s be honest, though: if you decided to send money our way, we’ll gladly accept it and make the most of it.  Anyways, your support is appreciated.  Whether it’s our articles or our podcast, you’re a good person for your continued support.  Thank you and we look forward to your continued support.