Who doesn’t love a predictions league?  I know, right?  If you’ve ever run a predictions or fantasy league, how often did you ask yourself why you volunteered to organize it?  At least once a week?  It’s like pulling teeth, I know.  But for this group I’m willing to run a USL League 1 predictions competition and force them to prove me wrong. If these people think I’m annoying already, wait until I’m pinging them once the day before picks are due and twice the day they are due.  So, how is this going to work?  It’ll be quite simple:

1. One point for correctly predicting the match winner
2. Two points for correctly predicting a draw
3. Three points for correctly predicting the final linescore

So what does the winner get?  Well, nothing.  Admiration from the readership I guess, but even that’s not guaranteed.  As long as Luke doesn’t win I’m content.  We’re going to post these updates once a week, hopefully the morning of the week’s first match.  This week’s schedule is simple, obviously:

Week 1

My goal is that by late May, all of you reading this will receive confirmation of what you’ve been thinking all along: these people have no idea what the hell they’re talking about. I, for one, look forward to embarrassing myself all season long!

I tracked Elo ratings across the league during the 2020 season.  Elo ratings are intended to go on in perpetuity, so I simply started with the 2019 season and worked my way forward.  Using personal liberties, I adjusted each team’s starting point in the 2020 season in hopes of finding a balance between recognizing the higher performing teams from the previous season while also accounting for the volatility that exists in lower league American soccer.  The resulting ratings for 2020 weren’t as accurate as I had hoped they’d be.  Perhaps this was because of the shorter season, but the ratings seemed to fluctuate more than the IMDB ratings for the last two seasons of Game of Thrones.  And just like the show’s last season, things just didn’t feel right in the end.

So for the 2021 season, I will be maintaining my own personal rating system.  It borrows some of the coefficients used last season, but will include methods that those who are familiar with RPI ratings will likely recognize.  Please reference my previous guest article from last season to familiarize yourself with the Elo formula I used if you’d like a refresher, and to compare it with what I will use for this upcoming season as you read.  Fair warning, I really enjoy talking and writing about numbers and formulas.  I almost enjoy it as much as the hosts of this podcast, a Union Omaha podcast, like talking about teams that aren’t Union Omaha. (Editor’s note: we all know the Ajax and Bayern fans are to blame.)  You know, on a Union Omaha podcast.  Anyway, let’s get started!

So, the main reason I maintained an Elo rating system last season was because I had never done one before.  I was intrigued with the facets of the formula that remain static over time, because the rating systems I’ve designed in other sports for the last ten or so years were fluid.  And by fluid, I mean the value of an individual game would change over the course of the season.  For example, in the 2019 college football season LSU played an early non-conference game at Texas.  LSU won this game by a touchdown, and it was considered a substantial result for them because Texas started that season strong.  The significance of this result had a pretty long shelf life, as Texas won their next three games and continued to impress.  However, Texas had a very mediocre finish to their season.  While LSU obviously ended the season as one of my highest rated teams, the win against Texas slowly became less valuable as the season progressed.  Those that follow college football as much as I do are well aware of a popular point made by talking heads across the country of how “Team A is a much different team now than they were last month”, so I like to develop systems that can account for that.  I had a couple bullets in this chamber to mock supporters of certain schools in this part of the country, but I want to remain friends with them so we’ll just move on with me hoping you understand the logic.

To calculate the value of a game, we will consider the following:

• Location of the match
• Final goal difference
• Each team’s current winning percentage
• The current cumulative winning percentage of each team’s previous schedule

Let’s go back to August 23^rd, 2020.  On this day, Union Omaha came from behind away to North Texas in a match that ended in a 2-2 draw (it feels good to remember that, doesn’t it?).  After this match, North Texas’ performance garnered a rating valued at 0.950, and Union Omaha a rating of 1.390.  These values will have more meaning later, once I reveal the full ratings from 2020, but all you need to know for now is that this was the value of the game on that night; a night that ended with North Texas having a record of 1-3-2, and Union Omaha a record of 2-3-0.  By the end of the season, North Texas’ performance rated slightly higher, changing from 0.950 to 1.045, while Union Omaha’s was considerably higher, changing from 1.390 to 2.035.  What happened here is the formula recognized North Texas’ improvement over the course of the season, and as more data was collected the value of the individual match adjusted accordingly, giving Union Omaha more credit for securing a draw away to a team that was better than its record indicated at the time.

So what goes into the calculation?  Do you really want to know?  If not, that’s ok.  Feel free to skip this section, I’ll let you know when it’s safe to return.  If you want to read at the same pace as the others, for some reason or another, may I suggest putting the kettle on, or perhaps asking Alexa to play a song of moderate length?  Why don’t you ask Alexa to play “Keep me Hangin’ On”?  No, not the original version by The Supremes, but the cover version by Vanilla Fudge.  Did you know that version existed?  It does, and it’s vastly different from the original.  Go on, give it a spin. 

Ok, only nerds here now.  So the formula itself isn’t complicated, it’s just that there are several calculations going on simultaneously, and different variables based on location and results.  Essentially, four numbers are always multiplied together:

• A goal difference coefficient similar to the one used in the Elo calculation (I increased it by a factor of 10)
• A number based on the opponent’s winning percentage:
  • If the match is a win or a draw, it’s the winning percentage itself
  • If the match is a loss, it’s (1 – winning percentage)
• A number based on the cumulative winning percentage of the opponent’s previous opponents.  Cumulative is used to account for an unbalanced schedule.  For example, if you played three games against two opponents, twice against a team with a 3-0-1 record and once against a team with a 0-0-4 record, that works out to a 6-0-6 record and a .500 winning percentage.  Same rules above apply based on the match result (actual percentage for a win or draw, (1 – percentage) for a loss
• A coefficient based on the match result and location:
  • Home wins: 0.667
  • Away wins: 1.333
  • Home losses: -1.333
  • Away losses: -0.667
  • Home draws: 0.333
  • Away draws: 0.667

What I’m hoping I’ve done with this formula is minimalize the difference of a 5-0 result vs. a 4-0 result, which is something I might not need to worry about anymore (Bye OCB!), give more credit to results by away teams, even if they are draws, and adjust results over the course of the season as we learn more about all of the teams in order to avoid those pesky narratives I talked about above.

To calculate the overall rating of a team, I simply average these individual results.  But, I’m not always averaging the same numbers.  As the season goes on, I will remove matches that are considered outliers from the calculation.  This process will remove those cases where a team does something that kinda doesn’t seem normal for them.  Like that time in Old School where Frank the Tank outdebated James Carville but failed to remember it, things sometimes happen for no explainable reason.  Therefore, I will remove matches from each team’s overall averages throughout the season in the following manner:

• After 8 matches, each team’s worst and best performance aren’t included in their average
• After 16 matches, each team’s 2 worst and best performances aren’t included in their average
• After 24 matches, each team’s 3 worst and best performances aren’t included in their average

Thank you so much for being willing to read all of this crap above without seeing what the 2020 ratings looked like.  So now we’ll get straight to it, but I first need to remind the normal people that stopped reading the previous portion to come back.

NON-NUMBER NERDS: IT’S SAFE TO RETURN

Welcome back, normal people!  Let’s go over the final ratings for the 2020 USL League One Season:

1. Greenville Triumph: 1.568
2. Union Omaha: 1.316
3. North Texas SC: 1.270
4. Chattanooga Red Wolves: 0.919
5. Forward Madison: 0.685
6. Richmond Kickers: 0.483
7. FC Tucson: 0.446
8. South Georgia Tormenta: 0.024
9. New England II: -0.475
10. Fort Lauderdale CF: -0.752
11. Orlando City B: -1.873

I will of course be keeping up with the 2021 season as we go, but don’t expect to see an update for a while.  This model will not produce worthwhile results for a few weeks because each team needs to have a few games under their belt before ratings settle down and don’t bounce around so erratically. I usually don’t start looking at my college football ratings until most schools have played four or five games, so I’m expecting to publish the first 2021 ratings sometime in late May or early June.  Until then enjoy yourselves, and thank your lucky stars that you don’t have as much spare time as I do. 

Most soccer leagues have very simple schedules: you play a true round robin over the course of the entire season, and all you really have to look for is whether or not you have some stretches where you have a few easy games in a row or run a gauntlet.  However USL (like other American professional sports leagues) have unbalanced schedules.  You still have your easy and tough stretches, but you typically have to study the schedule a little more intensely.  So, let’s get at it. 

Stretch 1: Let’s get some points early

4/24: Tormenta
5/8: @ Fort Lauderdale
5/12: @ Revs II
5/16: @ Greenville
5/26: @ Madison
6/2: @ TFC II
6/6: @ Madison

So, anybody familiar with the upcoming Omaha sports calendar had a feeling this was coming when you combine the Omaha Storm Chasers’ schedule with state baseball tournaments taking place at Werner.  However, when you look at this stretch up close it’s not as bad as it could have been.  Sure, away to Greenville is the end of a stretch with three games in nine days, but having Fort Lauderdale and New England as the other teams is probably all you could ask for.  The latter half of that stretch is unusual with us playing only midweek games, but Madison and Toronto are in the same boat as us during that same time as well.  If you split this stretch up further, I think 7 points in the first four games would be fine, along with an even split of 4 points in the following 3.  However, lose two of those first four games and suddenly we’re needing at least 6 points in the last three, and one of the Madison matches becomes must win.

Stretch 2: Home sweet home

6/12: Revs II
6/19: @ Richmond
6/26: Tucson
7/3: Chattanooga
7/16: Madison

We finally start seeing Union Omaha in person again here, and it starts with exorcising some demons.  Only three teams beat us last season, and they’re all part of this stretch.  Last year, we only got 9 out of a possible 24 points against these five teams.  On the off chance that Jay Mims reads this blog, I hope he prints this page out, circles this part and pins it to the bulletin board.  I believe three wins out of these five is a must to build momentum.

Stretch 3: Enough score settling, time to get to work

7/24: @ Tucson
7/31: North Texas
8/7: Madison
8/14: @ Tucson
8/21: @ Chattanooga
8/28: North Texas

This stretch allows us to finally start finding some sort of weekly routine, but this is not the time lose focus.  Tucson are a wild card in my eyes this year, but if they turn out to be a good team this stretch become much more brutal.  Shak Adams twice in 21 days, North Texas running us around, all the while Chattanooga and what looks to be an improved defense is waiting for us on the road.  If I had to pick a time of the season that we stumble into our nadir, this is it.  10 points in these six matches would probably be a huge accomplishment.

Stretch 4: Hill Street Blues special (let’s be careful out there)

9/4: @ North Carolina
9/11: TFC II
9/19: @ North Texas
9/25: Tucson
10/1: @ Tormenta

I see this as a stretch where we can shoot ourselves in the foot if we don’t watch out.  We need to make sure we aren’t looking ahead to North Texas when TFC II come to Omaha, and be ready to bounce back against a potentially feisty FC Tucson if North Texas doesn’t go well.  I have a feeling if we just worry about ourselves and what we can manage we’ll be fine.  Losing only one in this stretch is ideal, it tells me we’re on the right track as we hit the home stretch.

Stretch 5: How bad do we want it?

10/6: Fort Lauderdale
10/9: Greenville
10/16: North Carolina
10/23: Richmond
10/30: @ North Texas

This is where we separate the wheat from the chaff.  Four straight at home, potentially a couple of bunnies each followed by some true tests.  A chance to let some potential playoff teams know what they’ll have to beat in November, and ideally this results in the road to the Cup ending in Omaha.  I think it’s always good to have some tough games before the postseason, but it would be nice to lock up that first round bye sooner rather than later to give us time to get into playoff mode. 

There we go, Union Omaha’s 2021 regular season is all set.  As I mentioned above, an entire season is a stretch of easy patches and gauntlets.  Let’s hope that we are part of everyone else’s gauntlet. 

Today (3/16/2021) was an exciting day! The Union Omaha Culture Kit was dropped! Just kidding, that was not even remotely the most exciting thing we had happen today. As most of you know, our home, and technically season, opener was announced by USL League One today. Our opener is against South Georgia Tormenta, which is exciting for many reasons.

Before we look at this season’s match-up, let’s look back at how last season went against the Bolt and his crew. We played Tormenta twice last season, September 11th and October 3rd. Let’s take a brief look at both matches from last season.

The September 11th match took place in Georgia and was likely one of the most baffling matches you watched last season. We had just come off a 3 game stretch where we drew with North Texas (the infamous Nuhu red card match) and had beaten Tucson and OCB in consecutive matches. This match also preceded a 3 game losing streak that included Dami having his ribs broken at Chattanooga, a frustrating home match against the Baby Revs, and a 1-0 loss to Richmond. The match ended 2-2 but I remember thinking how much fight the team showed throughout this match. Tormenta scored their first goal early (11th minute) and we looked a little shocked. 11 minutes later they scored again via a Nuhu own goal. If you were like me, you were getting a little worried but luckily our boys fought back. We scored twice in 11 minutes ourselves through an Elma Nfor goal in the 70′ and a Ferrety Sousa ROCKET in the 81′. While it was frustrating to watch, and not knowing what the next three matches would bring, I remember feeling great about how the team fought back and didn’t give up.

The October 3rd match at home was memorable for many reasons. I brought up Dami being injured at Chattanooga because this was his first match back, and it completely caught the fans in attendance by surprise. This was also the biggest margin of victory in the club’s short history. It also signaled a growth in confidence after a few frustrating weeks and struggles in front of the net. Evan Conway got the party started in the 38′, Dami came on in the 72′ and 6 minutes later made it 2-0, and finally JP Scearce finished things off in the 83′ to make it 3-0. The most lasting memory I have from this match was watching the coaches panic when everyone went to celebrate with Dami, not wanting his ribs to be reinjured.

Now to our season opener at home against Tormenta this season. Tormenta has had a coaching staff change, several players have moved out, and they’ve even brought a Union Omaha alum (Kobe Perez) into the team. With the team we have coming back, plus our additions, I see this match ending closer to the 3-0 and not the 2-2 draw we saw in September. Our boys will be ready to roll, ready to compete, and ready to prove that last season was not a fluke. Be prepared for an entertaining match-up and I can’t wait to see you at Werner Park on April 24th!

By Owen Godberson

Last Thursday was an eventful day in the college soccer world, as it marked the 22^nd edition of the Major League Soccer SuperDraft. Some of the NCAA’s best and brightest punched their tickets to the pros, ranging from number one overall pick Daniel Pereira out of Virginia Tech to Leroy Enzugusi from Drake University finishing the draft at number 86. While many of those drafted may sound familiar to some Omaha and Creighton men’s soccer fans from watching previous opponents, none ring a louder bell than the Magic Man himself, Diego Gutierrez. 

The Ralston native was picked up in the third round of selection by the Portland Timbers, one of two draftees to the City of Roses following their second-round selection of Dawson McCartney of Dartmouth University. Gutierrez followed suit at the number 70 spot, becoming the 46^th Creighton player drafted since 1996 and likely the first Bluejay drafted without playing a single competitive minute in blue and white. 

The forward transferred to Creighton from the University of Nebraska-Omaha at the end of the spring semester in 2020, becoming the first player in Dodge Street Derby history to cross the divide between Omaha’s two D1 men’s soccer teams. Gutierrez played 44 games for the Mavericks scoring ten goals and notching 13 assists for the Crimson and Black. He played 79 of a possible 180 minutes in the Dodge Street Derby, having to come off injured in 2019’s hotly contested 2-1 Creighton win. 

The dynamic forward also becomes only the third former Maverick to be drafted, joining Xavier Gomez and Emir Alihodzic who were drafted in 2018 and 2016, respectively. And for many who have had the opportunity to watch him in action, Gutierrez going pro was only a matter of time. 

Diego is already a champion of Omaha and Nebraska soccer, holding the state record for most career goals at the high school level, finding the back of the net 112 times for the Ralston Rams between 2014 and 2017. Adding in his 43 assists in Class B, his high school statistics and legend will likely stand the test of time for years to come. But statistics do not always tell the whole story, and as I have learned over the years of covering the sport, an important aspect of judging a player is the eye test. 

Gutierrez’s style of play could be likened to that of Paris St. Germain and Brazil star, Neymar. A slender and fast paced attacking player who is best used out wide, his skill on the ball is what has wowed fans for years. Showing no fear in taking defenders one on one, his footwork and technical ability allows him to often get the better of his opponents in the attacking third. He has also displayed a keen eye for potential scoring opportunities, making him a dangerous defensive chore for many college backlines. 

The news of his draft selection may come as a disappointment for Union Omaha supporters, as his name has been mentioned a few times as a potential signing. While he certainly does have potential to have a successful career in the top flight, it is well within the realm of possibility for him to still end up as a member of Los Buhos. Whether it come as a loan deal from the Timbers, or as a free agent signing if things don’t work out for him in the Pacific Northwest, it would warm the hearts of many in the Omaha soccer community to see Diego taking the field for his hometown club. 

In the meantime, Omaha fans will still be able to see Gutierrez before departing for Portland, as he plans on finishing the spring season with the Bluejays. Creighton’s schedule was released earlier today as well, with the most notable fixture coming in the confirmation of another Dodge Street Derby matchup, taking place at Caniglia Field on February 27^th. 

Well fellow Búhos, we are here, we’ve reached the point of the offseason where new signings are coming in and boy did Jay and the Front Office come out swinging today! The tease last night was just perfect, if you saw the video it was a grainy video of one player assisting another for a goal. Our two new signings are familiar to most of us, having played against them last season, but they both bring some intriguing attributes to this team and they both featured in the video. Let’s shine some light on our two new Owls; Conor Doyle and Greg Hurst.

Conor Doyle

Positions: Midfield/Winger

Prior club: Chattanooga Red Wolves

Let’s start from the top with Conor. He was born in McKinney, TX where he grew up playing youth and high school soccer. He graduated in December 2009 and enrolled at Creighton University as an early enrollee. Yep, that’s right, one of our first new signings is already familiar with Omaha. Connor spent the 2010 season at Creighton appearing 7 times and scoring 3 goals, not a bad return. In his one season with Creighton, Conor helped the team amass a 7-0-0 record.

Conor’s career at Creighton ended there when he signed for Derby County, then in the English Championship. He made 22 appearances for Derby during his time there. During the 2013 season Conor was loaned to DC United in MLS where he stayed permanently until 2015. During his time at DC United he appeared 36 times and scored 4 goals. He left DC for the Colorado Rapids (what up Ben?)[Editor’s note:Hello! I am SO excited about these two!] where he was quickly loaned to the Colorado Switchbacks. Conor spent the 2017 and 2018 season with NASL and NPSL teams before landing at Chattanooga.

Conor has played for Chattanooga in the first two seasons of USL League One. He appeared 40 times for the Red Wolves and scored 2 goals. During his time with Chattanooga he played more of a midfield role. At 29 years of age, Conor brings plenty of experience, both in domestic and foreign leagues. Overall in his professional career Conor has played in 154 matches and has scored 15 goals.

First Impressions: When I saw this news I can’t lie and say I wasn’t pretty excited. Conor Doyle is a name I remember from his brief time at Creighton but remember more from watching USL League One the past two seasons. He brings a wealth of experience with him, including playing at a high level in Europe, and he knows how to find the back of the net. Most importantly, Conor has an Omaha connection and brings some maturity to our locker room. I imagine Conor was brought in to fill one of the central midfield spots and add depth in that area. He hasn’t played up top consistently in a few years so I don’t see him taking that role too often. He also can fill in on either wing to relieve Evan or EVD when they need rest. I can’t wait to see what he does when linked up with Toby, EVD, Evan, JP, and others!

Greg Hurst

Position: Forward

Prior club: Chattanooga Red Wolves

You read that right, both of our new signings are from Chattanooga. If you were excited about Conor Doyle then you should be ecstatic about Greg Hurst. Our newest striker was born and raised in Scotland and even went on trial with Everton when he was younger.

Conor’s professional career started with St. Johnstone in the Scottish Premiership. He spent his first season on loan at his hometown Stirling Albion, only appearing twice. He spent 2015-2018 with St. Johnstone, but only appearing three times. While he didn’t receive much time while in the Scottish Premiership, he most definitely gained experience training against top flight European talent on a daily basis. Put it this way, during his time at St. Johnstone Greg was practicing with Steven MacLean (129 career goals) and on a team that went to the Europa League.

Following those seasons Greg spent the next three seasons on loan from St. Johnstone to Scottish League One and Two clubs. Here he was able to gain match experience by playing 48 times and scoring 12 goals. In January 2019, Greg secured a permanent move to Stenhousemuir in Scottish League Two before moving to Chattanooga in August 2019.

During his career in Chattanooga Greg Hurst appeared 21 times and scored 10 goals, including the one in the tease from the club. Greg was also named to the 2020 USL League One All-First Team! Greg Hurst, while only 23 years old, also brings some good experience with him to Union Omaha.

First impressions: It was going to be a difficult task getting me more excited than announcing Conor Doyle but adding in Greg Hurst along with him was icing on top of the cake. Hurst brings us something we sorely need, a true forward that can lead the line. At 23 he is young enough to keep growing but can also come in and immediately take on the starting forward role. Just imagine Evan on the left, Hurst in the middle, and EVD on the right…no really, just imagine it. [Editor’s note: I AM IMAGINING IT!]

Final Thoughts: Búho Nation, it’s time to get excited! These signings are proof that our club is in this league for the long run. They made roster moves after the season that some questioned, but these signings should show you Jay and company’s intent for the 2021 season. Jay doesn’t want second place (by default) and it looks like he has the backing of ownership. I can’t wait to see what else our club has up their sleeves! In the meantime, rewatch those highlight tapes Liam Keating put together for us, by clicking each player’s name, and bask in the glory of this day!