Over the course of this season many USL Championship and League One teams have been recognizing the milestone achievements of their players making appearances wearing that club’s shirt. Dallas Jaye for Greenville is one example of a player that hit an appearance milestone, not only for Greenville, but for all of League One.
This got me thinking about the short history of our beloved club and how many matches some of our boys have played. The next closest milestone for appearances would be 25 total appearances (either as a starter or as a sub) so I took some time to research who was close to hitting this achievement.
The only players I focused on were those that have played for Union Omaha during both seasons so, unfortunately, Greg Hurst (hat-trick hero and currently on fire), Connor Doyle, and others will not make an appearance on this list. That left me with 13 players to focus on.
As you can see from the table above, we have a handful of players that are less than 5 games away from playing their 25th match in a Union Omaha shirt. A few things that jumped out at me:
Devin Boyce will make his 25th appearance on Saturday. I said on twitter that Devin went from “who the hell is this guy?” to “why in the hell isn’t he starting?” in a very short period of time. This number jumped out at me because Devin has been so consistent and such a boost of energy that we recognize when he isn’t on the pitch. He is also the ONLY player for Union Omaha to appear in every single match we’ve played. Hell of an achievement.
EVD is only 2 appearances away from 25. His start to this season made me feel like he hasn’t played much this season. If we’re talking strictly minutes, that may be true, but for appearances starting every game last season and appearing in 7 of the 8 this season has boosted his number up.
Rashid Nuhu is our rock in the back. Rashid’s only two non-appearances came because of a red card in 2020 and for rest during a long road stretch, otherwise he has been between the pipes for every other match. The man is a beast and deserves to be celebrated when he hits 25.
Elma Nfor being 4 away from 25 surprised me only because Elma doesn’t get the opportunity to start very often. He’s racked up his tallies in this category with his bottled chaos sub appearances but is very close to hitting this milestone as well.
Finally I wanted to give love to three players that worked their butts off to become mainstays in our starting 11. JP, Daltyn, and Sousa are all guys we’ve talked about on the pod who worked their way into these positions and their appearances show this. Those three had some bumps during the beginning of last season before making regular appearances and have not missed a game this season, leaving them close to 25.
As the season continues, let’s all keep an eye on this milestone as these players continue to add to their appearances and work towards other milestones. I for one will be celebrating Devin on Saturday as the first player to appear in a competitive match in a Union Omaha jersey 25 times. Here’s to many more!
If “Greg Hurst is on fire” isn’t still ringing in your ears or running through your head, are you really living right? While it is VERY tempting to give the hat trick hero all three bullet points in this column, I’m going to restrain myself. Somehow, other interesting things happened as well in the game against Revs II, so let’s dive in.
1) Greg Hurst is the poacher we’ve been missing
Who could have predicted that Greg Hurst would return home from a six game road trip and score a hat trick. Oh wait….
So Greg Hurst has scored 5 goals so far this season. 4 of them have been at home. 2 of them have won games against NE Revs II. 3 of them have been unassisted. 2 of them have been scored off of turnovers he’s forced. This seems like what a goal poacher would be doing, creating something out of nothing.
Another thing I noticed about this game is that Greg’s second goal had an xG of 0.45 which is the highest xG we’ve had on a chance all year.
Greg seems to be very skilled at turning small openings into goals. In fact he is the best in the league at it right now. According to the wonderful folks at American Soccer Analysis, Greg’s season xG is 2.52 (roughly equivalent to Dami’s expected assists at 2.53), but he has scored 5 goals. Thus his Goals minus Expected Goals is 2.48, good for first place in the league.
2) Did Devin Boyce really play forward?
Saturday saw the revival of one of Jay’s crazier personnel schemes from 2020 and one of my favorite: Devin Boyce as a forward. While definitely not his position, the reckless abandon with which Devin plays suits itself well for playing up top in our system, especially against teams that insist on playing out of the back.
The benefits were there for Devin and the team. A great goal to kill the game off and allow the home fans a chance to enjoy the end of the game. And, tired of his joint first status on the club’s all-time game winning assist leaderboard, a game winning assist to take sole possession of 1st place.
Sure looks like he played forward, but let’s look at a heat map for confirmation.
Devin Boyce heat map
Interesting, all of a sudden I’m less convinced because to me that looks like Devin was just playing both wings equally. Let’s look at Evan’s heat map against Fort Lauderdale to get a better sense of what a true forward might be doing.
Evan seems to be playing on both sides of the field like Devin, but Devin seems to be playing closer to the sideline like you might expect from his role as a midfielder. I think we’ll give this one to him and say he did great at the forward spot. I have no complaints!
3) Opponents crosses
I have concerns about our defense. We’ve allowed 4 of the 6 total goals we’ve allowed this season in the last 3 games (at TFC2, at Madison, Revs II), 3 in the last 2. When it comes to expected goals, in those 3 game, our opponents xG was 2.63, in the last two games it was 1.35. Not a great sign or trend. Is this a real problem, is this regression to the mean, all valid questions but all for a different column for a different day.
Today I’d like to highlight a pretty crazy statistic. Of the 23 crosses attempted by Revs II, they completed ZERO of them.
Unsuccessful and successful Open Play crossesSet play crosses. Only short corners were successful.
You love to see if from our guys, and hope they can replicate that success in Richmond on Saturday.
An average to below average score for most of the group last week. I say most of the group because Luke had to go out and do the thing. While he’s not out of the cellar quite yet, he has mentioned that his goal was to always finish strong. Somebody needs to tell him we’re about a quarter of the way through the season, so let’s not get too crazy tapping most of our mana right now.
I’m sorry for the cross-sport reference here, but I’m comparing Liam’s current position to the position of that one college football team that has numerous losses, but are still ranked way, way too high in the polls. So, Liam is essentially like Texas A&M or Michigan at the moment. Let’s see if he’s going to right the ship and end up like a typical Oregon team, or if he’s going to sink the ship, and be like that USC team that somehow ends up ranked after winning a bowl game to finish 8-5.
Ben
Jon
Liam
Luke
Rich
Riley
Ryan
Toronto 0-1 Tormenta
0 pts
0 pts
0 pts
0 pts
0 pts
0 pts
0 pts
Madison 0-0 Richmond
0 pts
0 pts
0 pts
0 pts
2 pts
0 pts
0 pts
Omaha 4-2 New England
1 pt
1 pt
1 pt
1 pt
1 pt
1 pt
1 pt
Tucson 2-3 Chattanooga
1 pt
0 pts
0 pts
0 pts
1 pt
1 pt
1 pt
North Texas 3-0 Greenville
0 pts
1 pt
0 pts
1 pt
0 pts
0 pts
0 pts
Tormenta 1-0 Toronto
0 pts
1 pt
3 pts
3 pts
0 pts
0 pts
0 pts
Total
2 pts
3 pts
4 pts
5 pts
4 pts
2 pts
2 pts
Week 10 Results
Record
Points
Ryan
20-24
33
Jon
20-24
32
Liam
15-29
29
Rich
19-25
28
Riley
16-28
27
Ben
14-30
17
Luke
13-31
15
Week 10 Standings
Ben
Jon
Liam
Luke
Rich
Riley
Ryan
Greenville Triumph v. North Carolina FC (Wednesday, 18:00)
1-0
3-0
2-0
1-1 🏝
2-0
3-0
2-0
Fort Lauderdale CF v. Toronto FC II (Wednesday, 18:30)
3-2
2-1
1-0
2-1
2-1
2-0
1-1 🏝
Richmond Kickers v. Union Omaha (Saturday, 17:30)
1-2
1-2
1-1 🏝
0-1
0-1
0-2
0-2
Toronto FC II v. Fort Lauderdale CF (Saturday, 18:00)
2-1
1-1
2-1
1-1
1-1
1-3 🏝
2-2
Forward Madison v. New England Revolution II (Saturday, 19:00)
1-1
2-1
2-1
0-1
1-0
2-2
1-2
South Georgia Tormenta v. Greenville Triumph (Saturday, 19:00)
0-3
1-1
1-2
1-1
1-1
1-3
0-1
North Texas SC v. FC Tucson (Saturday, 19:30)
4-0
3-1
1-0
2-0
2-0
3-1
2-0
Chattanooga Red Wolves v. North Carolina FC (Sunday, 18:00)
So, even though I waited until we were practically two months from the start of the season to release these ratings for the first time, I still had a feeling that at this stage of the season we’d see some wonky movement that seemed to go against the grain. And while, surprisingly, most of the things I mentioned in the “look ahead” portion of last week’s post sorta came to fruition, there were still some unexpected results. Let’s take a look at the current ratings before we dive in:
Rank
Team
Rating
1
Union Omaha (5-2-1)
2.467
2
Chattanooga Red Wolves (4-1-1)
1.428
3
Greenville Triumph (4-1-1)
1.402
4
Forward Madison (3-3-1)
1.271
5
Richmond Kickers (3-2-3)
0.531
6
North Texas SC (3-1-3)
0.381
7
Fort Lauderdale CF (4-1-5)
-0.249
8
FC Tucson (2-2-3)
-0.500
9
Toronto FC II (1-3-3)
-0.546
10
South Georgia Tormenta (4-0-6)
-0.700
11
New England Revolution II (2-1-4)
-0.776
12
North Carolina FC (0-1-4)
-1.873
Week 11 Ratings
Now, let’s take a look at how much movement there was between last week and this week to see if my analysis made any sense:
Current Rank
Team
Previous Rank
Result
Change
1
Omaha
1
W 4-2 v. NE
🔼 0.216
2
Chattanooga
4
W 3-2 @ TUC
🔼 0.398
3
Greenville
2
L 3-0 @ NTX
🔽 0.517
4
Madison
3
D 0-0 v. RIC
🔼 0.146
5
Richmond
5
D 0-0 @ MAD
🔽 0.095
6
North Texas
8
W 3-0 v. GVL
🔼 0.512
7
Fort Lauderdale
9
No game
🔼 0.170
8
FC Tucson
7
L 3-2 v. CRW
🔽 0.389
9
Toronto
6
L 1-0 v. TRM L 1-0 @ TRM
🔽 0.852
10
Tormenta
11
W 1-0 @ TFC W 1-0 v. TFC
🔼 0.717
11
New England
10
L 4-2 @ OMA
🔼 0.057
12
North Carolina
12
No game
🔽 0.207
Week 11 Change Summary
So, most of what I was looking for somewhat came to fruition. Union Omaha didn’t see a whole lot of improvement, even from a two goal win in an incredibly entertaining, satisfying match. Richmond dropping slightly was kinda foreseen, as was the fact that North Texas stood to gain a whole lot with a good result, and that we’d see some movement from both TFC II and Tormenta with teams getting three points versus draws. But if you bothered to scroll all the way down, you’d notice that New England’s rating improved, albeit ever so slightly, even after a multi-goal defeat.
So how did something like this come about? Well, remember that this system is designed to constantly re-evaluate previous matches as the season progresses. Clearly, we’re still learning more about every team in the league (the pair of matches between Tormenta and TFC II, with some MLS guys getting reps for Toronto, stands out more than anything). But New England has now played Richmond, Omaha, and Fort Lauderdale twice, along with Chattanooga. Those teams combined to go 2-1-0 this past weekend, 3-2-0 if you double up Omaha and Richmond (since NE2 played each of them twice). This improvement likely lessened the blow for New England, after a result that was already going to be somewhat softened because their 2 goal loss was to one of the best teams in the league on the road.
So I hope that my look ahead table last week was beneficial, both to prepare for the slate ahead as well as evaluating this method in retrospect to determine it’s effectiveness. So, let’s keep with this cadence for now. Here is what we should look forward to this week:
Date
Home
Away
Quick Synopsis
06.16
Greenville Triumph (1.402)
North Carolina FC (-1.873)
This match is very similar to the Union Omaha match last weekend for Greenville, except Greenville are still another match away from dropping their outliers. They need to dominate this one, or else their climb back up will remain an uphill one.
06.16 & 06.19
Fort Lauderdale CF
Toronto FC II
Similar to TFC II’s pairing last week with Tormenta, this pair of matches will probably only move the needle if one side dominates the other by getting at least four points. Since Toronto have played fewer matches, they are more apt to see drastic movement. This series could telegraph how the rest of their season will go.
06.19
Richmond Kickers
Union Omaha
This is a very milquetoast matchup if you pause to think of everything going on here; a superior team on the road with a team that appears to be slightly above average. Since we’re still early in the season, my guess is that Omaha has more to lose and Richmond has more to gain.
06.19
Forward Madison
New England Revolution II
Madison needs this more as a bounce back. New England continue playing an incredibly difficult schedule, which is why a draw here will probably be a benefit to them.
06.19
South Georgia Tormenta
Greenville Triumph
Tough to gauge this one. Tormenta are on a bit of a hot streak, and Greenville will have a midweek game before this one. Tormenta stands to gain from this one with a result, and I imagine they’d solidify themselves in the middle of my ratings table if they get three points here.
06.19
North Texas SC
FC Tucson
Both of these teams are in the same boat, middling teams in a match where the slightly better team is hosting. This tells me that FC Tucson stands to gain more, unless North Texas can win by multiple goals.
06.20
Chattanooga Red Wolves
North Carolina FC
It probably doesn’t matter how NCFC does against Greenville midweek; if Chattanooga don’t get three points here, they will drop. NCFC are very much in their own tier, enough that even a draw should be a shock here (and a detriment to Chattanooga’s rating).
Week 12 Thoughts
Enjoy this week’s slate of games. I hope that this enhances your viewing experience, and questions are always welcome in the comment’s section, on Twitter, and on any other social media platform. But if you have my phone number, please don’t call me. I may be old, but I’m not in my 40s just yet.
Alright Union Omaha fans, you can finally start your migration back to Werner Park. The Owls return from their six-game road streak to play their second home match of the season. This Saturday, June 12th, Union Omaha takes on New England Revolution II at Werner Park. Kickoff is scheduled for 7 PM (CST) and will air on ESPN+.
New England comes to Omaha for the first time since last season’s 2-0 win. You can probably assume that last year’s match is a hush-hush subject among the team. After all, Nick Firmino was on the receiving end of a crushing tackle from Ethan Vanacore-Decker, which earned Vanacore-Decker a straight red card [Editor’s note: Ethan’s red card was over turned since he missed and Firmino took an egregious dive. Yeah, we shouldn’t talk about this much.] Minutes later, Firmino scored the insurance goal for the Young Revs. The loss was only one of two Union Omaha home losses for the 2020 season.
The New England club currently has a game in hand, but sits seven points behind Omaha in the standings and three points outside of the playoffs. Their only victories this season were against Fort Lauderdale. Don’t get overly confident, though. With the exception of one match, every other was settled by a goal difference no greater than one goal for either side.
The clubs have already faced off in 2021, with Union Omaha three points in a 1-0 win in Foxborough Stadium. The goal came in the 84th minute when goalkeeper Rashid Nuhu started a fast break and punted into the Revs half, finding forward Greg Hurst in a 1v1. Hurst was able to lose his defender quickly, made his way toward the middle of the field, and ultimately the top of the 18-yard box. His shot found the netting on the far side, giving Hurst his second goal of the season. Nuhu joined rare company, being one of only two goalies to earn an assist in the league.
If you’re wondering what to expect, you can definitely anticipate a roaring Union Omaha crowd. Fans haven’t been to Werner Park since April 24th, when the Owls defeated South Georgia Tormenta 2-0 to start the 2021 season. In those seven weeks, fans have had to resort to watching matches on television, or traveling halfway across the country. During Union Omaha’s lone home match this season, Werner Park hosted the largest crowd for a Union Omaha home match, with 2,786 people making their way through the gates. This Saturday should be able to break that record, both in numbers and atmosphere.
With regards to action on the field, Union Omaha has to duplicate what they did in the first match against New England: generate lots of offense and keep the defense honest. The Owls had 20 shots against New England, 13 of those shots were from inside the penalty area. Forget that the Young Revs had just over 53% of possession because Omaha created way more offense with less possession. If you’re looking for a statistic, consider this: New England is winless when the opposition scores first and Union Omaha is undefeated when they score first. Omaha cannot give New England a warm welcome to Werner Park. They need to press high, challenge fiercely, and score early.
Union Omaha should also look to take advantage of New England if they get complacent on offense. Rashid Nuhu displayed excellent situational awareness by catching the Revs too comfortable in Omaha’s half of the field. If anyone on the team sees the same tactic against New England, look for the long ball, the diagonal run past the backline, and any open space that’s available. Omaha loves to play with speed and has the roster to punish any opposition, especially those vulnerable to a fast break.
Did you know soccer was illegal in Mississippi until 1991? Yep. Americans were okay with bowl cuts, windbreakers, and awarding an Oscar for Best Picture to “Dances with Wolves,” but “communist kickball”? Straight to jail. Don’t worry, soccer is legal in Nebraska, so make sure to head out to Werner Park this Saturday to welcome Union Omaha back and cheer them on to victory. It’s also legal to discuss soccer on the internet, so keep an eye out for updates in content here at Who Gives A Hoot Media. Whether it’s a new episode of our podcast or new articles, we’ve got your Union Omaha entertainment covered.
In our first game against Madison, it seemed like we wanted them to have the majority of possession, but we looked terrible in making that happen. 12 days later, it sure seemed like we did a MUCH better job of executing that plan. I didn’t anticipate us having 30.1% of the possession, but I loved to see it. Hopefully, like me, you are much more emotionally stable after match 7 than you were after match 5. That said, let’s dive in.
1)Emir Alihodžić aka Trialist #1
Emir came as close to having the first brace in club history as anyone has so far, forcing and own goal and scoring the game winner. For a guy who has 3 professional goals to his name going into this match he was an extremely unlikely pick to score a pseudo-brace or even start as a forward. But did he play forward?
We all know Jay’s undying devotion to the 4-4-2, it goes without saying. But for Emir, a guy who some of us thought might start at centerback, to start at forward was wild. Obviously, it paid off, but let’s see where Emir really played.
Averages positions #MADvOMA
Hmmmm, so you can clearly see Emir (#2) having an average position smack dab in the middle of the center circle. (Conor Doyle is buried under #20 and #6 for Madison). That seems like an odd place for a forward in a 4-4-2. So let’s compare to our best win of season so far. (If you don’t know what game that was, stop everything, read JR’s column and come back, I’ll wait.)
Average positions #FtLvOMA
Two things stand out to me here. 1) Greg Hurst has about the exact same position in both games and Evan, who Emir was filling in for, was slightly in front of him in Lauderdale. 2) Emir (buried under #15 and #8 for Lauderdale) is in about the same spot as he was in Madison, a little bit to the left and a little bit back, but still smack dab inside of the center circle.
Not where our forwards usually play, but who I am to question what worked out for us.
2) Boyce moving into first
Devin Boyce, who is the club’s all time leader in appearances (yeah, I know insane), is now tied for first (with EVD) in club history with three game winning assists. What else can I say, but BOOOM.
Ahhh the age old question, are the Flamingos any good. We lost to them, we beat them, I want them to be terrible on the field, I just can’t tell. So let’s look at three different metrics: SportsClubStats, American Soccer Analysis, and WGaH Media’s own Jon Ryan’s ratings.
I took the xGoals Team analysis and standardized some of the offered metrics to a per game basis. For definitions GD is goal difference, xGD is expected goal difference, xPts is expected points, and Diff is points per game minus expected points per game.
Team
Season
Games
GD-xGD
Pts
xPts
Pts/Game
xPts/Game
Diff
GVL
2021
5
2.3
13
9.68
2.60
1.94
0.66
CHA
2021
5
1.91
10
7.51
2.00
1.50
0.50
OMA
2021
7
2.66
14
10.54
2.00
1.51
0.49
TUC
2021
6
-4.13
8
7.05
1.33
1.18
0.16
MAD
2021
6
1.01
11
10.54
1.83
1.76
0.08
NER
2021
6
-2.24
7
6.63
1.17
1.11
0.06
FTL
2021
10
1.01
13
12.44
1.30
1.24
0.06
RIC
2021
7
3.3
10
10.13
1.43
1.45
-0.02
TOR
2021
6
1.32
6
6.33
1.00
1.06
-0.05
TRM
2021
9
-0.47
9
10.13
1.00
1.13
-0.13
NTX
2021
6
-4.81
7
9.48
1.17
1.58
-0.41
NC
2021
5
-1.86
1
6.22
0.20
1.24
-1.04
I believe Diff is telling us how much per game is being added by factors like luck, good shooting and great shot stopping. Madison’s Diff is 0.08 which means their points on the table is basically what their expected points say it should be.
JR has Madison ranked in third in his rankings as well.
All of this would indicate that if Union Omaha is the best team in the league, Forward Madison is close, but not quite as good as we are. To confirm this, I combine JR’s rankings and SportsClubStats RPI and averaged them out to get a weight for opponents faced by each team. Throwing out the games head-to-head, Forward’s draws were, on average, against the 8th best team in the league and our draws were against, on average, the 5th best team. Union Omaha’s wins were, on average, against the 8.83 best team in the league while Madison’s were, on average, against the 10th best team in the league. See my chart below:
Team
RPI
JR
Average
OMA
1
1
1
GVL
2
2
2
MAD
3
3
3
CHA
4
4
4
RIC
5
5
5
TUC
7
7
7
TOR
10
6
8
TRM
6
11
8.5
NER
8
10
9
FTL
9
9
9
NTX
12
8
10
NC
11
12
11.5
Forward Avg Draw
8
Forward Avg Win
10
Omaha Avg Draw
5
Omaha Avg Win
8.83
Not sure my chart actually makes sense to you, but to me it confirms the sad news that our spindly legged neighbors to the north might just be the 3rd best team in the league right now.
So kind of neat that we looked much better than they did last Sunday.
And if you need further reminder of the superiority of Owls over Flamingos, I encourage you watch this highly scientific video.
Start at 16:34 if you need to get straight to that sweet, sweet owl content.
I’ll be honest, this game was 9 days ago but it feels like A LOT longer ago than that. This was match 6 of our season, but the result we got from match 7 made our draw in the desert feel a lot better. We have a few things to unpack from this match so let’s dive in.
1) DAMIA VIADER
I’ve been posting Dami’s stats on Twitter when I write this column because it seems like it is lazy to use space in this column to talk over and over again about Dami’s brilliance and importance to our team. BUT, when a player pops off a 8.9 rating on FotMob and makes team of the week, I’ll make an exception.
Let’s quickly remember this preposterous goal line clearance in the 38′
You gotta love those HD cameras.
Dami leads the league in crosses by a preposterous margin. If you added the crosses attempted by the 3rd (32) and 4th (30) ranked players, you would still have less crosses than Dami has (63). The player 2nd on the list plays for Fort Lauderdale who has played 3 more games than Union Omaha. Dami is 2nd in the league in chances created with 22. He is one chance behind a player who also plays for Fort Lauderdale. (All stats current through 6/10).
Okay, now that you understand just how preposterous the stats Dami is putting up are, let’s look at the Toronto game. Dami had 13 of Union Omaha’s 29 crosses and 4 of the 11 chances the team created.
7 of those 29 crosses were successful for the team, and Dami had FIVE of those crosses.
Successful crosses plus chances
Also this was the first game that Dami had an assist but did not score a goal. I think more assists are on their way.
2) First corner kick goal?
If you were at Rathskeller late night last Wednesday you might have heard a few massive UO fans talking about how Union Omaha hadn’t scored off a corner. Those fans (*cough* me *cough*) are wrong. Last year, JP scored directly off of a corner at North Texas, Elma scored at Tormenta following a corner, and Evan scored at Fort Lauderdale following a corner. Daltyn’s goal fits into that second category, a goal following a corner.
What was a first for the club was a central defender scoring a goal. Congrats Daltyn!
3) Impact Subs
Lots of chatter about the difference the subs made, Boyce won the corner that led to our goal and, as always, Tobi looks like he is on another level. However, our constant drip, drip of chances didn’t seem to change much after the subs came on.
You can see that we continued to create small chances at about the same rate after the 67′ as we did before. I need to keep learning more so I can have some better xG analysis than that, but hey, 11 points from 6 straight road games is good enough for me.
As of the time that I began typing this post, the 2021 USL League One season is more than 20% complete, with 38 of 168 regular season games in the books. And I don’t mean simply metaphorical books, but Excel workbooks as well. That’s right, it’s time for amateur statisticians (me) to pretend they know what they’re talking about as they publish team ratings. I’ve been sharing the ratings internally amongst the WGaH media empire early in the season, and some members believed early on that these ratings had a little spice, so I’m curious to see if they believe they’ve mellowed out some.
If you didn’t read my introductory article to how I’m calculating ratings this season or need a refresher, feel free to go back to this article to learn more. I will talk briefly about how we got to these ratings, but without further ado let’s take a look (ratings as of matches played through 06.06.2021):
Rank
Team (W-D-L)
Rating
1
Union Omaha (4-2-1)
2.251
2
Greenville Triumph (4-1-0)
1.919
3
Forward Madison (3-2-1)
1.125
4
Chattanooga Red Wolves (3-1-1)
1.030
5
Richmond Kickers (3-1-3)
0.626
6
Toronto FC II (1-3-1)
0.306
7
FC Tucson (2-2-2)
-0.111
8
North Texas SC (2-1-3)
-0.131
9
Fort Lauderdale CF (4-1-5)
-0.419
10
New England Revolution II (2-1-3)
-0.833
11
South Georgia Tormenta (2-0-6)
-1.417
12
North Carolina FC (0-1-4)
-1.666
Week 10 Ratings
So here are a couple of broad takeaways at first glance:
Union Omaha being ahead of Greenville Triumph by a moderately healthy margin, even with a loss
There is a rather wide disparity between teams that are either .500 or just one game below .500
The first one is fairly simple to explain away: Union Omaha just finished a very successful road trip. Points on the road matter. For example, Union Omaha’s 2-0 win at Fort Lauderdale was worth twice as much as North Texas’ 4-2 home win versus them two weekends before. So not only are we accumulating points on the road, but we also don’t have as many ho-hum results at home to water down those results. In fact, here are the three most impressive results so far this season:
Date
Match
Rating
04.17.2021
New England 0-3 Richmond
5.177 (Richmond)
05.07.2021
Fort Lauderdale 0-2 Omaha
4.209 (Omaha)
06.06.2021
Madison 1-2 Omaha
4.133 (Omaha)
Top 3 Results
But even with more positive results, Union Omaha could still cede the top spot to Greenville (now that they’re actually playing again). We have some home games coming up, and those games will balance out the strength of schedule we’ve played so far. Union Omaha’s current strength of schedule played is 0.522, which is quite impressive given we are responsible for a portion of that record of 1-2-4 (1). For example, you have to go all the way down to New England in 10th place in the ratings to find a team that has played a more difficult schedule so far this season.
As for the disparity between similar teams in the middle, it usually can boil down to just one game. See above with Richmond Kickers, who currently have the highest rated game so far this season. However, without a great performance this upcoming weekend against Madison their rating will suffer. Not just because of the potential for a loss, but also because Richmond is playing their eighth match. Remember, once a team has played eight matches their best and worst results are removed from their calculation, as those matches are being considered outliers. So, removing their best and worst game will likely hurt Richmond’s rating, probably more so than it would most other teams. Let’s compare them to Union Omaha for example, who are also about to play their eighth game this weekend:
Team
Date
Best/Worst
Result
Value
Richmond
04.17.2021
Best
New England 0-3 Richmond
5.177
Richmond
05.02.2021
Worst
Fort Lauderdale 2-1 Richmond
-1.953
Omaha
05.07.2021
Best
Fort Lauderdale 0-2 Omaha
4.209
Omaha
05.26.2021
Worst
Madison 2-1 Omaha
-1.189
Best/Worst Matches: Richmond Kickers and Union Omaha
So Richmond may only be dropping a slightly higher net value than Omaha, but they do so with a lot less buffer to play with. I’ll try to not simply throw the rest of the individual match values at you, but here are both team’s 2nd best and 2nd worst results at the moment, both of which are likely to remain part of how their overall rating is calculated next week:
Team
Date
Best/Worst
Result
Value
Richmond
06.05.2021
2nd best
Richmond 3-2 New England
1.480
Richmond
05.29.2021
2nd worst
Chattanooga 2-1 Richmond
-1.190
Omaha
06.06.2021
2nd best
Madison 1-2 Omaha
4.133
Omaha
06.02.2021
2nd worst
Toronto 1-1 Omaha
1.721
2nd Best/Worst Matches: Richmond Kickers and Union Omaha
The difference in each team’s net value from the above matches is quite stark. That’s why losing this upcoming weekend, even though it’s on the road against a strong opponent like Madison, could cause Richmond to shift considerably in the order that teams are rated.
I will post updates to these ratings each week through the rest of the season. I’m not sure how much any of us will get out of looking ahead to the weekend slate with ratings in mind and, frankly, I’m just happy to be here talking about numbers with other number nerds, but let’s do it (Note: in the event this is published on 06.10.2021 or later, I will not consider the TFC II v. Tormenta match on 06.09.2021):
Date
Home
Away
Quick Synopsis
06.12.2021
Union Omaha (2.251)
New England Revolution II (-0.833)
This is Union Omaha’s eighth game, so their outlier matches will be removed after this match. Anything less than a two goal victory at home will marginally help their rating at best, or possibly even lower it.
06.12.2021
Forward Madison (1.125)
Richmond Kickers (0.626)
As mentioned before, Richmond are probably more affected by this match than Madison.
06.12.2021
FC Tucson (-0.111)
Chattanooga Red Wolves (1.030)
The fact this match is simply being played helps both, they currently have the lowest and third lowest strength of schedule in the league.
06.13.2021
North Texas SC (-0.131)
Greenville Triumph (1.919)
This is the kind of match that has one-sided potential. North Texas probably doesn’t suffer much with a loss, but both teams can gain considerably with a win since the match is in Arlington.
06.13.2021
South Georgia Tormenta (-1.417)
Toronto FC II (0.306)
The same can probably be said of both matches they’ll play this week, but results instead of draws will shape Toronto’s rating considerably given they’ve only played five matches.
Week 11 Thoughts
Thanks for reading, everyone. I look forward to sharing these updates with you from now until the cup is lifted!
Footnotes:
(1) So if you calculate our strength of schedule the way I’m calculating it (which is counting each match individually, therefore Madison counts twice, for example), you get a winning percentage of 0.522. But since we’ve played those teams that means, naturally, our results against them are included. And since our record is 4-2-1, that means those teams combined records, when you don’t include our results, would actually be even better.
Raw data for Tormenta, Fort Lauderdale, Revs 2, Greenville, Toronto, and Madison (twice): Their overall combined records: 19-10-17 (.522) Their combined records when you remove our results: 17-8-12 (.568)
If you turned on ESPN+ on Sunday, June 6th and saw Union Omaha playing Forward Madison in Omaha, you’re TV was not playing tricks on you. Yes, Union Omaha was in Madison, Wisconsin ten days prior. Yes, Union Omaha was back for another match. And most importantly – yes, this match finished with better results than the prior visit. Union Omaha would end the six-game road tour with a 2-1 winagainst Forward Madison.
The Flamingos entered the match on Sunday undefeated and eager to continue their climb up the USL League One standings. Before kickoff, both teams were tied for third place with 11 points. Despite limited capacity, over 2,000 fans showed up for the sold-out match at Breese Stevens Field. The atmosphere was jovial before kickoff, but that’s probably because it was “Bring Your Dog Day” at the stadium and the four-legged friends were there in full force, as well.
In Week 8, the two clubs met for their first showdown of the 2021 season. Forward Madison scored the lone goal in the 58th minute off of a defensive error. The Flamingos utilized both sides of the field, incorporated many players in each possession, and showcased their calmness and organization while on offense. Week 9 played out a bit differently.
Forward Madison started the match and immediately looked to pressure the right corner, but Union Omaha goalkeeper Rashid Nuhu easily collected the cross into the box. During Union Omaha’s following possession, Nuhu sent the ball far into the Forward Madison half and goalkeeper Philip Breno started another offensive series. Fans of both clubs expected Union Omaha to send a lone disrupter, while the rest of the team sat back slightly and waited for Forward Madison to approach the Union Omaha half of the field. Here’s where Union Omaha head coach Jay Mims changed his tactic for this visit to Madison.
When the Flamingos had possession in their own half, the Owls pressed high, early, and aggressively. The two forwards, Emir Alihodžić and Greg Hurst, set a high line for initial point of pressure. Immediately behind them, the disruption duo of Nic Firmino and JP Scearce thwarted many attempts by Forward Madison to utilize their players in the middle to swing the ball and distribute the ball away from pressure. Forward Madison still had a majority of the possession to start the match, but their possessions were shorter, under greater duress, and less organized. Omaha’s tactic prevented Madison from settling into their possession, gaining confidence, and forced key central players like center midfielder Aaron Molloy and center forward Jake Keegan to the flanks to support their teammates. This resulted in a lot of key turnovers for Union Omaha. You know what else helps take a quality team like Forward Madison out of their rhythm? An early conceded goal. Let me be more specific: an early goal conceded via an own goal.
In the 7th minute, Union Omaha had a throw-in inside of Forward Madison’s half. Dámi Viader threw to Nic Firmino, who centered it to JP Scearce. Firmino had the great presence of mind to make a run to the corner and Scearce rewarded him with a through-ball to the corner. Not wasting any time, Firmino centered the ball into the penalty area, near the penalty spot, where Emir Alihodžić was tussling with Tyler Allen and Audi Jepson. What happened next was a flurry of legs attempting to connect with the ball. With the blink of an eye, the ball was in the net, but what happened? While Forward Madison players and fans were trying to solve that puzzle, Union Omaha players and fans were whipped into a celebratory frenzy. By the end of the match, the goal would be credited to Tyler Allen as an own goal. An early goal on the road is a great way to throw a wrench into the home team’s game plan. It’s also a great way to remove the home crowd from the match for a while.
Within the next three minutes, Union Omaha had opportunities to double their lead, but none of them found their way home. The Owls had a free kick in the 9th minute and two corner kicks immediately afterward. There was an improvement in set piece discipline, as services from Dámi Viader had greater success of connecting with a teammate. The set-piece goal against Toronto FC II earlier in the week must have increased confidence in the Owls.
The rest of the first half was a process of trial and error for Forward Madison. Due to Union Omaha’s defensive setup, Madison players were being pulled out of position. Center midfielder Aaron Molloy was camped out farther back than usual. Under ideal circumstances, Molloy is the playmaker and maestro for the offense. Molloy likes to play long passes to keep the defense unbalanced. Against Omaha, he was often seen settling in his own half and providing relief to players on the right side of the field. His absence in Union Omaha’s half came at a great relief to the Owl’s defense. With his caliber removed from scoring opportunities, Forward Madison had to look elsewhere for inspiration. Here are some numbers showing how Molloy was limited to maintaining possession, instead of exercising creativity in Union Omaha’s half:
Week 8
Week 9
Long Passes
Short Passes
Long Passes
Short Passes
12
66
3
78
Other players were pulled into providing relief, as well. Left midfielder Audi Jepson resorted to floating into the middle of the field, filling the void left behind by Aaron Molloy’s absence. He still found opportunities to work along the left sideline, combining with left forward Tyler Allen to battle for possession. No one on the left side of the field had a shot on target in the first half. If you include left back Jiro Barriga Toyama into the stats, the three players lined up on the left side of the field only completed two long passes, both coming from Jiro.
A ray of hope came for the Flamingos in the 35th minute. After Dámi Viader fouled Derek Gebhard, Forward Madison set up a set piece in a threatening position. The initial threat was cleared by Union Omaha defender Daltyn Knutson, but Madison left midfielder Justin Suckow recovered the loose ball in the middle of the field, evaded Devin Boyce, and found Jake Keegan at the top of the 18-yard box. Surrounded by defenders Daltyn Knutson and Jacob Crull, Keegan was still able to make his way between the duo and find a goal-scoring opportunity. After turning over his right shoulder, he was faced with a clear window of the goal and slotted home a perfectly-placed shot. Goalkeeper Rashid Nuhu wasn’t even able to make a genuine attempt at saving the shot. The ball was placed too well and had too much pace. The goal evened the scoreboard, was Keegan’s fourth of the season, and Forward Madison’s first goal scored in the first half. The first half would end in a tie, just like every other matchup between the two clubs.
The second half began and Union Omaha had to find a way to quash any momentum from Forward Madison. That opportunity came during a free kick in the 51st minute. Dámi Viader was fouled inside the opposing half and opened the door for a goal-scoring opportunity. The ball sat inside Forward Madison’s half, on the right side, and was soon passed down the sideline to Devin Boyce. While carrying the ball, Boyce was able to pick out Emir Alihodžić near the top of Forward Madison’s goal area, the 6-yard box. Boyce crossed the ball and Alihodžić was able to head the ball toward the near post. Goalkeeper Philip Breno lept to his side, completely parallel to the ground, arm stretched out, and could only get his fingertips on the ball. The net danced, but not to the tune of the winds. This time, it was to the spirit and good fortunes of Union Omaha. The players rushed into celebrations, fans jumped with arms held high, and vocal chords were pushed to their limit. It wasn’t a last-second, Disney-style finish, though. There were still 39 minutes, plus extra time, to be played.
Forward Madison made some adjustments almost immediately upon the restart. Right midfielder Justin Suckow floated in toward the middle and often paired-up with center midfielder Aaron Molloy. The Flamingos were looking to keep Molloy more central and provide him the support he needed to be able to return to his strengths. The pair of midfielders were able to push their positions higher up the field than they could in the first half, causing a lot more build-up play on the flanks.
Right back Christian Diaz and right forward Derek Gebhard worked together quite a bit, as well. Diaz covered a lot of ground in the second half in order to secure the right flank. Gebhard made a positional concession and sat back much farther on the field than he would normally like. His new positioning worked in his favor, as there were several moments in the second half when the quartet of Gebhard, Diaz, Molloy, and Suckow executed some effective combination play, got behind the Union Omaha defense, and could look to create chances. By the end of the second half, the four players were only able to amass the following stats:
Goals
Shots on Target
Shots off Target
Unsuccessful Crosses
Successful Crosses
0
1
2
10
4
Even with an extended extra time, the Flamingos were unable to earn a tying goal. With the loss, Forward Madison lost their first match of the season and found themselves in fourth place with 11 points. Their next match is another home match, this time against fifth-placed Richmond Kickers on Saturday, June 12th at 7 PM (CST) on ESPN+.
With the win and three points, Union Omaha is the temporary crown-wearer of the league with 14 points. The Owls finished their six-match road trip and return home to Omaha for a matchup against ninth-placed New England Revolution II. The match is scheduled for Saturday, June 12th at 7 PM (CST) on ESPN+. Make sure to arrive at Werner Park early and join the tailgate beforehand. There will be food, beverages, games, music, and plenty of supporters to meet.
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The season seems to be coming at us faster than we can keep up. I wonder if I’m only now thinking this because I didn’t walk into my apartment until 3:00 Monday morning after driving back from Madison? Maybe, maybe not, but my brain felt like it was floating in a wave pool when I logged onto work later that morning.
And here it is on Wednesday afternoon, and I’m still posting this column that I’m sure fewer people pay attention to than I would hope to see. And since I am all about that content, stay tuned for my first ratings column either Thursday or Friday. I promise it is everything you dreamed about, if you’re the kind of person that dreams about entering nested formulas into Excel that don’t produce #N/A errors.
At the time of this typing, I have also yet to receive Ben’s picks. Should I ping him again? Will he get his picks in before I hit publish in the upper right corner (He did, at 3:53 pm)?
Ben
Jon
Liam
Luke
Rich
Riley
Ryan
Fort Lauderdale 2-2 Madison
0 pts
0 pts
0 pts
0 pts
0 pts
0 pts
3 pts
Toronto 1-1 Omaha
0 pts
0 pts
0 pts
0 pts
0 pts
0 pts
0 pts
Richmond 3-2 New England
1 pt
1 pt
1 pt
1 pt
1 pt
0 pts
0 pts
North Carolina 1-2 Fort Lauderdale
1 pt
0 pts
0 pts
0 pts
1 pt
0 pts
1 pt
Tormenta 1-0 Chattanooga
0 pts
0 pts
0 pts
0 pts
0 pts
0 pts
0 pts
Tucson 1-1 Toronto
2 pts
2 pts
3 pts
0 pts
0 pts
3 pts
2 pts
Madison 1-2 Omaha
1 pt
0 pts
1 pt
1 pt
1 pt
1 pt
1 pt
Totals
5 pts
3 pts
5 pts
2 pts
3 pts
4 pts
7 pts
Week 9 Results
Record
Points
Ryan
18-20
31
Jon
17-21
29
Riley
14-24
25
Liam
13-25
25
Rich
16-22
24
Ben
12-26
15
Luke
10-28
10
Week 9 Standings
Ben
Jon
Liam
Luke
Rich
Riley
Ryan
Toronto FC II v. South Georgia Tormenta (Wednesday, 18:00)
2-2
2-2
1-1
1-1
2-0
1-1
2-0
Forward Madison v. Richmond Kickers (Saturday, 19:00)
1-2
2-1
1-0
0-1
1-1 🏝
2-0
2-1
Union Omaha v. New England Revolution II (Saturday, 19:00)
3-1
3-1
1-0
2-0
1-0
2-0
1-0
FC Tucson v. Chattanooga Red Wolves (Saturday, 21:00)
1-2
1-1
2-1 🏝
1-1
0-1
1-2
1-2
North Texas SC v. Greenville Triumph (Sunday, 18:00)
1-1
2-1
1-1
3-1
0-2
1-1
1-2
South Georgia Tormenta v. Toronto FC II (Sunday, 19:00)
Who Gives A Hoot? 