As if you didn’t have enough to celebrate this weekend, get ready to celebrate tonight’s match against Chattanooga.  Werner Park hosts the Red Wolves and kickoff is set for 8 PM (CST).  If you can’t make it to the match, tune in to watch the live broadcast on ESPN+.  It would be hard to line up a better match with fireworks to follow the final whistle.  The Red Wolves are tied for 3^rd place, riding on three wins in their last five matches.  Last week, they tied Greenville (2^nd place) with a goal going both ways.

            Last year, the two clubs faced off only one time.  The first time Union Omaha made the trip to East Ridge, Tennessee, the match was postponed due to severe weather.  The next time the two clubs played each other, the Red Wolves gave Union Omaha their first league loss in club history.  Tonight will be another dose of history because the Red Wolves have never played a match in Werner Park.

            Union Omaha is undefeated in their last five matches, as well as undefeated at home.  Last week, fans were treated to another festive occasion, thanks to positive efforts across the board.  The winning goal came in the 6^th minute from none other than Greg Hurst.  The Owls currently sit four points ahead of the Red Wolves, but need to create all of the distance they can because Chattanooga has two games in hand.  A win tonight would ensure a placement above the Red Wolves, even if they win both of those matches.

            It seems obvious to say, but tonight’s outcome will be determined by game strategy.  Sure, Chattanooga could go for the jugular and try to grind out a win.  More likely than not, they will play the long game and try to settle for a draw tonight.  A draw tonight would give them another point that could become useful down the line.  A second draw in as many weeks also helps to build confidence within the team, especially since those draws would have come against the top two teams in the standings.  Settling back and focusing on defending would save some legs and allow them a shorter recovery time before returning to Tennessee for two home matches.

            Don’t think for a second that Union Omaha will employ the same mindset.  Jay Mims as instilled a solid mindset within the club: win.  Tonight will be a battle, no doubt.  Mims has seemed to grow in his confidence as the team shuffles personnel around to fill the void that Evan Conway left due to his injury.  Devin Boyce has done a great job of forging up into the final third and disrupting the backline.  His continued irritation up top prevents calm distribution and adds an element of chaos, which is valuable to Union Omaha’s cause.  Let’s be honest here: Boyce seems to genuinely enjoy that bit of freedom, too.  Not only does it benefit Greg Hurst, since he can be within range to pick up a loose ball and convert the opportunity into chances on goal, but also because the midfield can press higher and close down the passing windows.  Chattanooga doesn’t pass as much as previous opponents, so tonight could be an exercise in shutting down their direct plays and limiting their time in the final third.

            If you haven’t had the chance to wish Luke a happy birthday, make sure you find him online or at the tailgate and make sure he feels appreciated.  He’s been working very hard to make sure things run smoothly with Parliament, this site, and the tailgates.  Speaking of tailgates, make sure you stop by and enjoy a beverage, BBQ, and music.  There will also be games to play, as well.  We’ve had a good turnout at every home match, so get your friends and family together and join the festivities!  Hope to see you all there.  ¡Viva Búhos!

So last week was a ho hum week, but not a bad week for yours truly. Ryan and Liam both took big hits last weekend, and now most of the table is getting pretty interesting as we’ve gotten through more than a third of the season.

It was an even better round for Luke, who somehow managed to increase his season total by almost 50% in one week alone. And judging by one of his picks below, he appears to think he’s really, really feeling it right now. That, or he’s thinking of revenge for Dami’s ribs.

	Ben	Jon	Liam	Luke	Rich	Riley	Ryan
Greenville 2-2 Madison	0	0	0	2	0	2	0
Toronto 3-1 Tormenta	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
North Carolina 2-1 Richmond	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Chattanooga 1-1 Greenville	0	2	0	3	3	0	0
New England 3-0 North Texas	1	1	0	1	0	0	0
Fort Lauderdale 2-1 Toronto	3	0	1	1	1	0	0
Omaha 1-0 Tucson	1	1	1	1	1	3	1
Total	5 pts	6 pts	2 pts	8 pts	5 pts	5 pts	1 pt

	Record	Points
Jon	27-32	40
Ryan	25-34	39
Liam	21-38	39
Rich	24-35	35
Riley	19-40	33
Ben	20-39	27
Luke	20-39	25

	Ben	Jon	Liam	Luke	Rich	Riley	Ryan
Forward Madison v. New England Revolution II (Wednesday, 19:00)	0-0	1-1	1-1	0-1	1-2	1-0 🏝	1-2
South Georgia Tormenta v. Toronto FC II (Wednesday, 19:00)	2-1	2-1	2-1	2-0	2-1	1-0	2-2 🏝
Richmond Kickers v. North Texas SC (Saturday, 17:30)	2-0	2-0	2-0	2-1	2-1	2-1	2-1
South Georgia Tormenta v. North Carolina FC (Saturday, 19:00)	1-1 🏝	2-0	1-2	2-1	2-1	2-1	1-2
Union Omaha v. Chattanooga Red Wolves (Saturday, 20:00)	1-1	0-0	2-1	3-0	1-0	2-1	1-0
FC Tucson v. Fort Lauderdale CF (Saturday, 21:00)	1-2	1-2	0-1	1-1	1-3	2-2	1-2
New England Revolution II v. Greenville Triumph (Sunday, 13:00)	2-2	2-1	1-0	2-1	2-1	1-1	1-0

Last week felt like more of a routine week when compared with the previous week. Greenville may have a legitimate complaint to that comment, given that they played two of the top four teams in the league in a four day span. Toronto FC II are probably also glad that what has become their routine of playing two matches each week will disappear this week. Below are the updated ratings:

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Union Omaha (6-3-1)	2.332
2	Chattanooga Red Wolves (5-2-1)	1.513
3	Greenville Triumph (5-3-2)	1.189
4	Forward Madison (3-4-2)	0.994
5	New England Revolution II (4-1-4)	0.492
6	Richmond Kickers (3-3-4)	0.280
7	Toronto FC II (3-4-4)	0.139
8	Fort Lauderdale CF (5-2-6)	-0.122
9	FC Tucson (2-3-4)	-0.131
10	North Texas SC (3-2-4)	-0.160
11	South Georgia Tormenta (5-0-7)	-0.667
12	North Carolina FC (1-1-6)	-1.390

Rank Δ	Team	Result(s)	Change
8 → 5	New England	W 3-0 v. NTX	🔼 0.459
12 ↔	North Carolina	W 2-1 v. RIC	🔼 0.369
4 ↔	Madison	D 2-2 @ GVL	🔼 0.277
10 → 8	Fort Lauderdale	W 2-1 v. TFC	🔼 0.204
2 ↔	Chattanooga	D 1-1 v. GVL	🔼 0.156
3 ↔	Greenville	D 2-2 v. MAD D 1-1 @ CRW	🔼 0.155
1↔	Omaha	W 1-0 v. TUC	🔽 0.081
9 ↔	Tucson	L 0-1 @ OMA	🔽 0.095
6 → 7	Toronto	W 3-1 v. TRM L 2-1 @ FTL	🔽 0.161
11 ↔	Tormenta	L 1-3 @ TFC	🔽 0.286
5 → 6	Richmond	L 1-2 @ NCFC	🔽 0.352
7 → 10	North Texas	L 0-3 @ NE	🔽 0.403

Some immediate takeaways I noticed once creating this table:

• You notice a nice, expected inverse of matchups at the top and bottom of the list. New England and North Texas had the best and worse movements over the week, followed by North Carolina and Richmond. Then things get messy due to the irregular schedule.
• Greenville moved up less than Madison and Chattanooga (though Chattanooga’s advantage is practically a rounding one only), even though they drew both sides. Madison’s higher rating bump makes sense because their match was in Greenville, but Chattanooga likely merely treaded water with Greenville because of Greenville’s earlier draw, and also because this run of form of theirs has lowered their rating to the point that these results are starting to become the norm.
• Omaha and Tucson both saw similar movement, a slight decline in their rating. It’s fair to say that Union Omaha’s run on the road has been so good that a 1 goal victory at home to a below average team is going to be a detriment.

I also believe we’re going to see this constantly shuffling of positions in this large middle we currently have in the table, at least for a while. If North Carolina FC are actually turning a corner, then we might start seeing a more noticeable bottom tier (though Tormenta may give them a little assistance on that front). The same might be said at the top, as all three of last week’s top four teams trailing Union Omaha cut into their deficits.

While Union Omaha can’t be caught in the actual League One table this upcoming week by Chattanooga, it’s quite possible that they could be caught in the ratings with a loss. There would be no shame in losing to this Chattanooga team, but all loses at home hurt. This match, and New England-Greenville on Sunday are the matches that have the most potential to really shuffle the ratings around. Next week’s update should be very interesting (which means it probably won’t be).

I had a great night at Werner Park this week did you? Nothing like an early goal and perfect weather to make the game go down easy. Despite the relative ease of the win, some interesting things still happened, so let’s dive in.

1) Greg Hurst loves Werner Park

One, who else is super happy we didn’t have to face Chattanooga at home last year? Greg would have scored a brace against us for sure. Two, we are not singing “Greg Hurst is on Fire” nearly enough. To me the whole point of the song is that it is an insidious ear worm that we want to place in the heads of the opposing defenses. We want to remind them they are terrified!

Anyway, back to the data. Greg Hurst started the scoring with a brilliant give and go with Sousa. I’m a frequent critic of the camera quality of ESPN+ coverage of League One. The clubs pay way too much money for the quality to be bad by 2010 standards. An upside to the single camera angle is that you could see Greg alter his run to lose his defender at the last second to head the ball into the goal. By the end of the first half the commentator was suggesting Greg could have had another hat-trick. So I was curious.

As you can see Greg had 6 of our 12 shots for the game. Additionally, he had 3 of our 6 shots on target. And they were good shots. As it happens, Greg’s xG for this game was 1.6 (thank you American Soccer Analysis) indicating perhaps he could have scored more goals. Even crazier though, his xG in the last home match, the one where he had a hat-trick, was 0.9 xG.

2) Is Emir our lockdown defender?

I was surprised that Jay swapped JP out of the lineup for Emir, but figured a night of rest for JP would be fine. I was even more surprised when Conor Doyle lined up in central midfield and Emir on the left wing. Both players were hyped as Swiss Army Knife type players who could play anywhere, but according to Transfermarkt that was Emir’s first professional appearance at left midfield.

Watching in the 2nd half, it became obvious that Jay wanted to give Dami some extra help covering one of League One’s fastest players: Shak Adams. We kept our first clean sheet in 6 games, so hard to argue with any defensive choices, but Shak did create 3 chances in the game, compared to 8 chances created in his previous 7 matches.

Emir was sparkling at left midfield though, stuffing the stat sheet with 41 passes, 8 duels won (to 3 lost), 2 chances created, 0.67xA (expected assists (for context that was almost 2x Ferrety’s for the game), 2 interceptions, 3 fouls won, and none conceded.

3) A clean sheet!

As noted in my colleague Ryan’s article, we had gone a team record 6 games in a row with conceding a goal. Thankfully, we’re back on our clean sheeted ways. During those six games, we conceded all 7 goals we’ve allowed this season. We earned 9 points during those 6 games. Compared to 12 points earned in our 4 clean sheets, you can see why we all want clean sheets!

The starting back four (Viader, Crull, Knutson, Sousa) earned their first clean sheet as a unit, but the four backline players have actually all started during a clean sheet previously. During the 45 minute attempt to play Dami at left mid last year, those four players all started. They also were on the field together at the end of the first two games of the season.

Currently, we are top of the table and headed for a top 2 clash (by RPI) next weekend. I predict fireworks.

Happy Match Day, Búhos fans!  In their third home match this season, Union Omaha welcomes FC Tucson into Werner Park.  This will be the first time that these two clubs face one another this season.  In 2020, Union Omaha won both matches 2-1.  While there are different faces on both rosters, we can expect very similar statistics in tonight’s match.

FC Tucson currently sits in 11^th place and nine points behind Union Omaha.  Despite FC Tucson only having two wins, both of those wins came on the road (against Toronto FC II and North Carolina FC).  Most of their opponents have come from the middle of the standings, so tonight will be a true test of mettle.  They currently have the best passing accuracy in the league, as well as conversion of shots to goals.  While they may be efficient with their passes and shots, they will find themselves lined up against Union Omaha, who has conceded the fewest goals in the league and has faced the second-lowest amount of shots.  The drama near the goal could very easily be outdone by drama near the ball.

The first time these two clubs played one another, they shared seven yellow cards.  Just over two weeks later, there three more yellow cards issued during their contest.  This season, both clubs have been awarded 20 yellow cards each, an average of two yellows a match for both clubs.  In the last four weeks, FC Tucson has also seen four red cards come their way.  In fact, the team was awarded two red cards last week during their match against North Texas SC.  When FC Tucson lines up against Union Omaha tonight, they’ll be without right back Noah Franke and right midfielder Gio Calixtro.  After earning a soft red against Toronto FC II, left back Maximiliano Schenfeld will be allowed to join the club and play in tonight’s match.  This development shouldn’t have much of an affect on how the team chooses their formation for tonight.

FC Tucson likes to line up in a 4-5-1 (4 defenders, 5 midfielders, and 1 forward).  With three midfielders pressing forward and two defensive midfielders, they have a balanced level of personnel across the field.  This allows them to pressure the ball sooner, maintain numbers on the flanks, and helps streamline their offense moving forward.  The club has maintained possession well, balancing their short passes with long passes.  They average more passes per game (452) than Union Omaha (375), yet still have just as many long passes (59) as Union Omaha (58).  They also like to win challenges in the air, so look for FC Tucson to have an effective offense moving forward.  This is also a club that will fight to take shots inside the penalty area.  They also gravitate away from a lot of flank play and crosses into the box, which is what Union Omaha fans are used to seeing from their club.  Hopefully Union Omaha will employ fluid personnel shifts to cover the middle of the field on defense and shift outside to dominate the flanks.  Since Union Omaha sticks to the 4-4-2 (4 defenders, 4 midfielders, and 2 forwards), look for the inside midfielders to cover a lot of ground.  Luckily, the Owls have a deep roster of high-quality central midfielders, so worries related to substitutions shouldn’t be a problem.

If Union Omaha wants to deal a morale-deflator to FC Tucson, they need to score first, keep the crowd involved, and hold off any goals from FC Tucson until the second half.  When FC Tucson scores in the first half, they have a 50% chance of winning.  However, if the other team scores first, regardless of the half, FC Tucson has only managed to win 20% of the time.  Union Omaha is undefeated when they score first, so make sure you get to Werner Park early, get your merchandise and food/drinks before kickoff, and get loud right away.  The Owls will need your support right from the get go.

Union Omaha looks to rebound from a disappointing draw against Richmond.  The club only has a one-point lead on Greenville in the standings, so earning three points will be crucial in the clubs quest to earning a first-round bye in the playoffs.  Including tonight’s match, Union Omaha has three home matches in a row.  This will be a great boost for the Owls because Werner Park is consistently the highest in attendance.  While on the road, FC Tucson has played in front of an average attendance of 807 people, the largest reported road attendance was 1,060 people, when the club faced off against North Carolina FC.  Werner Park hosted 3,677 people at the last home match.  With that many fans bellowing at the FC Tucson players, that level of opposition could have an affect on the field.  So if you’re coming to the match tonight, make some noise, let FC Tucson know you’re there, and support Union Omaha.

Evan Conway is still doubtful for tonight’s contest, as head coach Jay Mims has repeatedly stated Conway is going through recovery, even saying that it may be a couple of weeks until we see him again.  Mims is hesitant to rush Conway through his recovery and instead wants to be sure of his health before allowing him to return to the field for full contact.

Why does Who Gives A Hoot have such a good website?  Because Union Omaha is so good at stringing three W’s together.  I’m sorry…and you’re welcome.  Whether it’s the podcast or the articles, we’ve got you covered with all the fun and data you’re longing for.  Keep checking the website for updates, new posts, and make sure to follow our social media accounts, as well:

Twitter: @WGaH_Pod

Instagram: @wgahmedia

I’m back again with a quick article about players hitting appearance milestones as the season progresses. Over the next couple of weeks we have players hitting the 25 appearance mark in quick succession. If you need a bit of a refresher on what I’m talking about, click here to read my article from last week.

Against Richmond Devin Boyce became the first Union Omaha player to hit 25 appearances, doing so on the road and not giving us the chance to celebrate that achievement with him. Luckily, we have the chance to do that twice over the next two home matches. On Saturday June 26th EVD (4 MVP) will hit his 25 appearance milestone, should he appear against Tucson. Ethan was obviously a star on the team last year, not missing a single game, and is very deserving of this milestone achievement.

The next match, on July 3rd against Chattanooga, brings us the chance for TWO players to celebrate hitting 25 match appearances as both JP Scearce and Rashid Nuhu are on track to hit their 25th appearance in a Union Omaha shirt on that date.

While this many matches doesn’t seem like a major milestone, we need to continue to keep in mind that our club is going to play it’s 26th match EVER on June 26th. This goes to show the level of consistency we’ve had in our team over the short history of our club.

On a side note, you may have noticed I titled this article Union Omaha Milestones Part II and left out the appearances tag. This was done intentionally because other milestones may pop up as the season goes on. JR was kind enough to let me know that we’ve hit a milestone that isn’t one to celebrate, we have had a 6 game streak of conceding a goal. This is the longest stretch this club has gone without a shutout. Will we get a shutout this weekend? Come to Werner Park and find out!

“A tie where it feels like a loss” – Jay Mims. In his Mims’ Minute (incredible name by the way, wonder who came up with that one….) said just what I was thinking.

🗣 Post-match thoughts from Coach Mims following our 1-1 draw in Richmond: pic.twitter.com/Iwzx8C1SZN

— Union Omaha (@Union_Omaha) June 22, 2021

I felt Jay was dancing around the fact that the team let off the gas a bit after scoring our first goal and didn’t wake back up until they’d given up a goal. Recording the podcast, my co-hosts disagreed with me. Only one way to find out if they are wrong, let’s dive in.

1) Did we let off between goals?

In the past, we’ve had guests on the pod say, that as defenders, they believe if they keep a clean sheet their team will win. Could the attacking players hold a similar belief? If they score a goal, they don’t need any more goals to win?

I think they certainly acted like they felt that way during this game. My basic argument is that we stopped trying as hard to attack and score goals after the “shross heard round the league” and before a Richmond player bounced a ball off Tobias’ chest and into the goal.

Below I have included an image all of the shots and goals taken by Union Omaha and saves by Akira Fitzgerald. In the image after that I have done the same thing, but time constrained it for the time between goals (Sousa 31′, Otenio (OG) 76′).

So Union Omaha had 21 shots in the game. Just 4 of those shots (19%) happened in the half of the game (45′) that took place between goals. Akira Fitzgerald had 8 saves in the game. Just 1 of those 8 saves (12.5%) took place in the 45 minutes between goals.

Thanks to the incredible folks at American Soccer Analysis, we can run this theory past xG for the match as well.

g+ GameFlow: USL League One Regular Season @RichmondKickers v @Union_Omaha on June 19, 2021. #RVAisRED #UpTheOwls #RICvOMA

Originally tweeted by GameFlow (@GameFlowxPG) on June 20, 2021.

So my theory doesn’t hold up as well to the Max Goal Probability chart as it does to the shot and save charts. However, that 15 plus minute stretch (60′-75′) where we literally generated ZERO xG does indicate at least a small issue in generating attack after we scored a goal.

2) Akira Fitzgerald was heroic

The chart above looks good for us. The metrics look good for us. And even though our xG wasn’t off the charts at 1.66, Akira Fitzgerald was still amazing. How amazing? Well his 8 saves in the match, currently ranks 3rd for saves in a single game in all of League One in 2021. Too bad it was against us.

3) Possession & chances
If you had told me going into the game we’d have 44.4% of the possession, 18 chances (tied for season best) and 42.9% shooting accuracy, I’d tel you we would win that game easily. But as discussed above, we did not.

In fact, the last time we had less than 45% possession and didn’t earn 3 points was our fifth game last season: 8/23/2020 at North Texas, a run of 19 matches. You can try and attribute this one to a superlative performance from Akira Fitzgerald, but we went more than 50 minutes between shots on target. I think we fumbled the bag with three points in it a little bit on this one.

The good news is that two our closest rivals (MAD & GVL (not just emotional rivals either, as of 6/24/20 those two clubs have the 3rd and 4th best chances of making the playoffs according to SportsClubStats; we are number 2 on that list)) have had an even worse time than us since our game kicked off. While we had an unfortunate own goal, a season’s best performance from their goalkeeper, and a 45 minute long power outage, each of those teams lost over the weekend and drew each other midweek. The bad news is Chattanooga is looking great despite letting us sign their best players in the offseason. But no need to look past this weekend. See you at Werner Park on Saturday to beat Tucson!

Unsurprisingly, a few matches with a line of straight zeros. But, kudos to Luke and Ryan for picking the Baby Revs to beat Madison, I obviously wasn’t that bold.

But who else deserves kudos? How about Liam continuing to defy logic by lapping Luke while only having four more wins than him? I’m not officially condoning this, but all I’m saying is that there are betting sites that let you pick the exact outcomes of matches (with, unsurprisingly favorable odds), and the knockout stage of the Euros is right around the corner.

Until that time, let’s see how creative I can be with making incorrect predictions. Hot takes below:

	Ben	Jon	Liam	Luke	Rich	Riley	Ryan
Greenville 2-1 North Carolina	1	1	1	0	1	1	1
Fort Lauderdale 2-2 Toronto	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
Richmond 1-1 Omaha	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
Toronto 2-1 Fort Lauderdale	3	0	3	0	0	0	0
Madison 0-2 New England	0	0	0	1	0	0	1
Tormenta 3-1 Greenville	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
North Texas 0-0 Tucson	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Chattanooga 3-2 North Carolina	1	1	1	1	1	0	1
Total	5 pts	2 pts	8 pts	2 pts	2 pts	1 pt	5 pts

	Record	Points
Ryan	24-28	38
Liam	19-33	37
Jon	22-30	34
Rich	21-31	30
Riley	17-35	28
Ben	17-35	22
Luke	15-37	17

	Ben	Jon	Liam	Luke	Rich	Riley	Ryan
Greenville Triumph v. Forward Madison (Wednesday, 18:00)	3-1	1-0	1-0	0-0	1-0	1-1	2-1
Toronto FC II v. South Georgia Tormenta (Wednesday, 18:00)	2-2 🏝	2-1 🏝	0-1	0-1	1-2	0-1	1-3
North Carolina FC v. Richmond Kickers (Friday, 18:00)	0-1	1-0 🏝	1-2	1-1 🏝	0-2	1-2	1-2
Chattanooga Red Wolves v. Greenville Triumph (Saturday, 18:00)	2-1	2-2	1-2 🏝	1-1	1-1	2-0	2-1
New England Revolution II v. North Texas SC (Saturday, 18:00)	2-1	3-1	1-3 🏝	2-1	1-1	2-2	1-1
Fort Lauderdale CF v. Toronto FC II (Saturday, 18:30)	2-1	2-3	2-0	2-0	2-0	1-1 🏝	2-3
Union Omaha v. FC Tucson (Saturday, 19:00)	2-0	3-0	2-0	2-0	2-0	1-0	3-1

After a week that saw more games played than any other week so far this season (not only did all 12 teams play, but all 12 played just during the weekend alone) I figured we were bound to see some wonkiness in the ratings. Not to mention, some teams reached that 8 match milestone as well. All in all, the league itself was pretty wild this past week. For example, do you realize the Jake McGuire punt into the stands in Greenville was less than a week ago as of the publication of this post? My goodness, a lot has happened. Let’s look at the updated ratings first, and then look straight away at each team’s movement.

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Union Omaha (5-3-1)	2.413
2	Chattanooga Red Wolves (5-1-1)	1.357
3	Greenville Triumph (5-1-2)	1.034
4	Forward Madison (3-3-2)	0.717
5	Richmond Kickers (3-3-3)	0.632
6	Toronto FC II (2-4-3)	0.300
7	North Texas SC (3-2-3)	0.243
8	New England Revolution II (3-1-4)	0.033
9	FC Tucson (2-3-3)	-0.036
10	Fort Lauderdale CF (4-2-6)	-0.326
11	South Georgia Tormenta (5-0-6)	-0.381
12	North Carolina FC (0-1-6)	-1.759

Team	Result(s)	Change
Toronto	D 2-2 @ FTL W 2-1 vs. FTL	🔼 0.846
New England	W 2-0 @ MAD	🔼 0.809
Tucson	D 0-0 @ NTX	🔼 0.464
Tormenta	W 3-1 vs. GVL	🔼 0.319
North Carolina	L 1-2 @ GVL L 2-3 @ CRW	🔼 0.114
Richmond	D 1-1 v. OMA	🔼 0.101
Omaha	D 1-1 @ RIC	🔼 0.054
Chattanooga	W 3-2 vs. NC	🔽 0.071
Fort Lauderdale	D 2-2 vs. TFC L 1-2 @ TFC	🔽 0.077
North Texas	D 0-0 vs. TUC	🔽 0.138
Greenville	W 2-1 vs. NC L 1-3 @ TRM	🔽 0.368
Madison	L 0-2 vs. NE	🔽 0.554

The most surprising results of the week were obviously Tormenta’s win against Greenville and New England’s win at Madison (both by two goals), so it’s no surprise that Greenville and Madison dropped the most this week. What’s a little more surprising is that Tormenta’s rise wasn’t as high as I thought it would be. Especially comparing them to Toronto, who rocketed up from their results this past week, but Toronto got to drop their worst result (a home loss to Tucson) and that gave them an additional boost.

Another slight surprise might be the fact that NCFC’s rating actually improved slightly. This is easy to explain; their rating was already so low, and losing two matches (away from Cary, the Rome of the American Southeast) by one goal to two of the three best teams in the league obviously shouldn’t lead to that big of a penalty when you’re already the worst team in the league. The results are also legitimately on par for them, they have lost all six of their matches by one goal this season.

Team positions in the middle of the table are starting to become very volatile, because the difference in ratings are so small. Seeing Tormenta still in 11th place might be frustrating given their current form, but they have made up much more ground than you might realize. It’s interesting looking at the gaps between each team, when you simply compare their rating versus that of the highest rated team. To do this, you can add the absolute value of the lowest rated team (which is NCFC this week, and perhaps in perpetuity) to each team’s rating and then calculate their proportion versus the highest rated team. Here is what that looks like at the moment:

Team	% Of Top
Omaha	100%
Chattanooga	74.69%
Greenville	66.94%
Madison	59.34%
Richmond	57.31%
Toronto	49.34%
North Texas	47.97%
New England	42.93%
Tucson	41.29%
Fort Lauderdale	34.33%
Tormenta	33.02%
North Carolina	0%

I think this table helps truly interpret the gaps between each team. Notice that it shows the gap between 1-2 is the same as the gap between 4-11. It might not be correct to say the gap between Omaha and Chattanooga is the same as the gap between Madison and Tormenta. In fact, I know it’s not. Omaha is going to have to continue with some really impressive results to maintain this level of separation, especially since they’re going to be playing at home more often. But it does help you realize just how close some of these teams are to one another, even if their separation by rank alone is great.

All of the above is perhaps evidence that supports releasing these ratings less often. But screw that, because content, baby! [Editor’s Note: YEAAAHHHHH!] Plus there are some big matches this week, with three of the top four teams playing three matches against each other (poor Greenville). I’m also going to start tinkering with how predictive these ratings can be, but that will take time and patience. I will update you if I feel comfortable with any of my findings. Until then, let the bantz and hot takes begin! Or not, you know, whatever.

Union Omaha is back on the road and find themselves in Richmond, Virginia for a Week 11 matchup against Richmond Kickers.  Kickoff is scheduled for 5:30P CST and the match will air on ESPN+, so make sure to tune in and watch this quality matchup.

            These two clubs have only faced each other once in the past.  That previous match was last year, when Richmond came to Werner Park and left with a 2-0 win. Today’s match will be the first time Union Omaha has played against Richmond in City Stadium.

            So far in 2021, Richmond has equaled Union Omaha’s eight matches played, yet finds themselves six points behind the Owls.  Entering Week 11, Richmond is in seventh place and on the outside of the playoff picture.  With a quarter of the season completed, Richmond will need to pick up more points if they want to compete for the league title.  That quest begins tonight when Union Omaha comes to town.

            The Kickers have had a strong season so far in 2021, allowing only seven goals scored against them in eight matches.  Goalkeeper Akira Fitzgerald has the most clean sheets and is making a strong case for the Golden Glove award at the end of the season.  On the other side of the field, Richmond has shown themselves to be a threatening chance-creator.  Midfielders Zacarías Morán Correa and Nil Vinyals have been especially potent on offense.  Forward Emiliano Terzaghi has taken a different stride this season.  After scoring 10 of Richmond’s 22 goals last season, winning the Golden Boot, and USL Most Valuable Player of the year, Terzaghi has shown that he can be a prolific team player.  He’s scored the most goals for the club this season and has an assist to his name (editors note: his first in League One), but he’s been sharing the ball a lot, creating a valuable partnership with teammates Oalex Anderson and Nil Vinyals.  This effort has resulted in Richmond utilizing multiple weapons in their arsenal.  Defenses have had a harder time covering all of the threats the Kickers have to offer.  It’s a tall task for Union Omaha, but they’re riding a solid wave at the moment.

            The Owls are coming off a historic performance from Greg Hurst, who earned his first hat trick of his career.  The hat trick was also the first for Union Omaha.  With Evan Conway injured, other players have had to step up a fill the void he leaves behind.  The team has responded in the best way possible to Conway’s injury: as a team.  Sure, individuals have stepped up and earned praise for their individual performances, but the team has gelled together, blending their talents, and manufacturing an offense that is multi-faceted and balanced.  Missing Conway has sure affected the team, but the players united to make sure the team is still in a good place for whenever he is well enough to return.  Greg Hurst has collaborated with Conor Doyle, Nick Firimino, Dami Viader, and Ferrety Sousa, among many others, to create a different style of offense.  That style has paid off, as the team currently sits in first place, has only one loss this season, and has the largest goal differential.  Though the team has changed their formula with each team they face, they’ve found a way to make the formula work and gain success.  That success will be difficult to find against Richmond.

            The Kickers are a defensively-sound team.  No doubt about it.  One key to success in Virginia is going to be isolating the midfield.  Like Omaha, they have a strong midfield that connects well with the frontline.  If Omaha can load the middle third of the field, disrupt the passing lanes, and prevent them from settling into a stream of possession, Omaha will have a much greater chance of winning three points at the end of the day.  Possession will be a big factor because Richmond is a very creative team and their offense is cerebral.  It’s dangerous to allow them time and space, so the Owls could do that by pressuring early and forcing them to play one and two-touch passes.  It’s a lot more difficult to find that long through ball, cross-field switch, or the simple ball to the outside if you know there’s a defender that will be getting physical with you after your first touch.

            This will be a defensive match, but both sides also have quality offenses to showcase, so look for quality soccer on both ends of the field.  The match could be a low-scoring affair, but having Greg Hurst on your side certainly gives you confidence to continue littering the goal with shots.  It would not be surprising to this match go to the wire.  Both teams are hungry and want those three points.  This could be one of those matches that the clubs will look back on and wish they had found a result.  One of those matches where those three points would travel a lot farther at the end of the season.  All in all, this will be a fun one to watch.

            We know you’re hungry for more Union Omaha soccer news, but hold off on your Antonio Rudiger impressions around us at the tailgates and watch parties.  We’re working hard to get all of you the best content from Who Gives A Hoot Media, so keep checking the website and we’ll give you quality podcasts, ELO rating updates, data breakdowns, and other articles to fill your time.  Don’t forget to find us on social media, where you’ll be able to see videos from events, memes, and so much more.