Ref Ruins Rumble with the Red Wolves

To quote author Richard Powers and his introduction to “Galatea 2.2,”: “It was like so, but wasn’t.”  Union Omaha had the lead after 90 minutes, even after playing down a man for 35 minutes.  The three points were within grasp, victory was a mere five minutes of extra time away, and then it happened: in the 90+1st minute, second-half substitute Marky Hernández threw himself into a goal-line scrum and forced the ball over the line and into the goal.  Chattanooga earned the draw, salvaged a point, and maintained a striking distance to the top of the table with two games in hand.

            Prior to Saturday, Chattanooga had never made a trip to Omaha.  The Red Wolves weren’t greeted too kindly, either.  As the team bus pulled up to the stadium, a Parliament of Owls fans gathered to welcome them with smoke bombs and chants.  If the visitors thought this match was business as usual, the welcoming committee made sure to let them know that this was not going to be your regular 90 minutes.  A third-place team visiting the first-place team certainly warrants a meaningful evening.

            The first half seemed to be a completely one-sided affair, but not in the fashion you’re expecting me to describe.  In a largely back-and-forth occasion, the left side of Union Omaha’s field carried most of the labor.  Chattanooga kept the majority of their possession on the same side of the field, as well.  In fact, both teams combined for eight successful dribbles on that side of the field.  What about the other half of the field?  One, which belonged to Union Omaha.  Of those eight successful dribbles, Union Omaha left back Dami Viader owned five of those dribbles.  His contributions to the offensive efforts were valuable and paid off in the 36th minute.

            After earning a corner kick on the right side of the field, Dami Viader lined up for another in-swinger.  Rather than opting for his usual lob into the box, Viader played a short pass to midfielder Conor Doyle, which opened up space for Viader on the flank.  When two Red Wolves defenders quickly applied pressure to Doyle, he returned the ball to an open Viader, who crossed the ball to midfielder JP Scearce while he was waiting at the back door.  Scearce didn’t waste any time in heading the ball to the top of the six-yard box, where forward Greg Hurst was waiting to bury the ball inside the near post.  Chattanooga’s marking was horrendous and they practically handed the goal to Omaha.  The Owls showed great adaptability and recognition of an obvious gap in their defense.  As the teams left the field for halftime, there was an air of content and hope among the 3,880 fans inside Werner Park.  They were all in for a major surprise in the second half.

            Within ten minutes of the second half of the match, the trajectory of the match was thrown upside down by center referee Samantha Martinez.  In the 54th minute, Union Omaha had an opportunity inside Chattanooga’s box, but their goalie, Tim Trilk, was able to win the aerial battle against Union Omaha midfielder JP Scearce.  Both players went to the ground and Martinez had already blown the whistle to preserve Trilk’s safety, which is entirely acceptable.

While Martinez approached the box to award Sceare a yellow card, Chattanooga defender Jason Ramos was communicating strongly while standing over a sitting Scearce.  As Scearce stood up, contact was made between the two players and Ramos threw himself backwards in an exaggerated fashion and laid on his back, mere feet from where Scearce had just been sitting.  After Martinez arrived on the scene, she showed the yellow card to Scearce, turned to check on the safety of Trilk and Ramos, then re-approached Scearce to deliver a red card.  Werner Park was immediately filled with confusion, anger, and taken aback by Martinez’s decision.  Let’s analyze this and see what we can gleam for everything.

            The initial aerial challenge between Scearce and Tilk resulting in a call for Chattanooga comes as no surprise.  Referees try to take care of goalkeepers.  The amount of bodies flying at the goalies while they are focusing on the ball can easily lead to injuries.  When Scearce attempted to win the ball, his body was traveling toward the Tilk.  When a player challenges a goalie for a ball in the air, the player has to make sure they are jumping straight up and down.  Having any lateral movement to the jump dramatically increases the chances of the player receiving a warning or a card.  Prior to this challenge, Scearce had only conceded two fouls.  Martinez must have taken this into consideration upon seeing the battle with Tilk because she wasted no time in reaching for a yellow card.  There’s very little room for dispute in her judgement in this case.  What follows next is where the controversy begins.

            As stated above, while Scearce was sitting on the field, Ramos was standing directly above Scearce, even bending over him for more intimate communication.  This lasted almost two seconds.  Tilk was already standing and approaching, though his intention seems less known.  Maybe he was there to get between Tilk and Scearce, maybe he was there to add his own input to the intimidating situation.  We don’t know and I won’t speculate any further.  What is clear, though, is that Ramos showed no intention of ending his testosterone-and-anger-riddled trash talk.

            There was almost three seconds between Martinez blowing the whistle and Scearce getting to a standing position.  As Martinez approached Ramos and Scearce, she was approaching from a head-on view of the two players, rather than a profile vantage point.  When Ramos threw his body backwards, Martinez likely interpreted the events as a result of retaliation.  Make no mistake about it, Scearce did not stand with enough velocity to make Ramos’s body move in such a manner.  Was there contact between the two of them?  You bet.  Was it intentional contact?  Sure, but it looked more like the typical sly, passive aggressive contact you see in any sport (shoulder bumps, leaning into a player, etc.).  What was Scearce supposed to do:  Log roll to the side until Ramos was out of the way?  Continue sitting on the ground while a player was bent over him and talking to him?  Or ask the player to move?  Scearce looked as though he was simply standing up and his shoulder made contact with Ramos.  It’s kind of difficult to stand up straight and avoid physical contact when a player is bent over you.

Rather than conversing with her Assistant Referee on the sideline to see what she may have seen from her perspective, Martinez skips the discussion and awards a straight red card to Scearce.  Martinez should have recognized the disparity in her perspective and checked with her Assistant Referee.  That raises another issue, though: the Assistant Referee was on the opposite side of the field, close to thirty yards away.  While she may have had a profile view of the interaction, she may not have had a great view of everything.  Nonetheless, it was irresponsible of Martinez to award a hard red to Scearce when she did not have a good line of sight.  If she wasn’t 100% sure of everything that happened, she should not have made the calls she did.

What’s more irresponsible is her complete negligence to talk to Ramos, at the bare minimum.  He was guilty of unsporting behavior, yet did not even receive a yellow card, much less a verbal warning.  I understand that Martinez was distracted by the congregation of Union Omaha players in front of her, but if she was confident enough to issue a hard red card to Scearce, she should have recognized Ramos’s role in the skirmish, as well.  Her failure to do so was a great disservice to the integrity of the match.  Her decisions had a direct impact on the outcome of the match, as Union Omaha played down a man for 35 minutes, plus extra time.  Scearce should not have received a hard red.  Martinez should have separated the players, issued a yellow card to Tilk, attempted to verbally warn the players of further behaviors, and restarted the match with a direct kick for Chattanooga in their own box.  Her interpretation of the events was poor and she deserves a review.  It would also be nice if Video Assistant Referee (VAR) was employed at USL League One matches to give the referees another tool to utilize in their quest for a legitimate defense to their calls, but that’s another story.

Union Omaha did a great job of fending off attacks from Chattanooga and deserve a great deal of credit for their performance after Scearce’s dismissal.  They sat back, absorbed attacks, made clearances, and even found opportunities to create chances on the other side of the field.  Dami Viader had a wonderful strike late in the second half that slammed into the crossbar.  I’m still not sure which was louder: the ball ricocheting off the crossbar, or the crowd reacting to the shot.  Alas, there was no winning shot in the dying moments to save the day.  Instead, it was a Chattanooga goal following a chaotic sequence inside the six-yard box.

The draw keeps Union Omaha in first place, Chattanooga in third, and the space between the clubs in the standings, as well.  Union Omaha has a bye week in Week 14, while Chattanooga welcomes FC Tucson to East Ridge, Tennessee on Saturday, July 10th at 6 PM (CST).

Union Omaha will host Forward Madison on Friday, July 16th at 8 PM (CST).  As usual, the match will air on ESPN+, so if you can’t make it to Werner Park, tune in for another exciting battle for the Owls.  While the Owls are resting, recovering, and preparing for the Flamingos, we’ll continue to give you great content to read.  Keep checking back for more episodes of the podcast and articles.

Data Dump: Chattanooga

If you only looked at the highlights and the data you’d be stunned we got anything but a drubbing from the so-called “Sad Wolves.” If you were, say, chatting with all your friends on an incredibly beautiful night at Werner Park, you’d feel like we lost a very winnable game. I think the truth is somewhere in between, but we can find out if we dive in.

1) The Late Goal

In the 90+1′ we gave up a goal. In club history, 27 matches, this was the third stoppage time goal we’ve conceded (2020: at Tucson, NERevs II). But the first one that changed the outcome of the match.

For the Red Wolves, this season alone, this was the 3rd match they’ve scored in stoppage time to change the outcome of the match and the 5th time they scored after the 80th minute. They rescued a total of 9 points from these games for a full half of their 18 points total on the season. (1 point loss to a draw, 2 points draw to a win).

In all of club history, Union Omaha has rescued at total of 8 points after the 80′. 6 points last season, 2 points this season. If you factor in the 2 points we lost in stoppage time Saturday night. We are +6 all time.

2) Superlative Worsts

Reviewing the numbers after the game, I winced repeatedly. I’ve been tracking about a dozen metrics for each game and we stunk in many of them. Here is a list of the season worst marks we set in those metrics.

MetricAmountPrevious WorstOpponent
Opponent xG2.491.46at Greenville
Our xG0.340.54at Greenville
Crosses Attempted1111Tormenta
Opponents Cross Percentage4527.3at Toronto II
Chances Created56at Madison (#1)
Passing Accuracy65.170.4Tormenta
A little chart I made

There are number of things I don’t track that possibly were relevant too. For instance, I can’t remember an opponent ever hitting the woodwork twice in a game. I have no qualms about calling this our worst offensive performance of the year.

3) But we still got a point!

There is no doubt the red card affected the match. Chattanooga had 8 chances better than our 2nd best chance and 6 of them came after the red card. But we have to give credit to individual brilliance from our guys for scoring a goal.

Jay Mims: credit to him and the staff for drawing up the corner kick routine that we’ve now used successfully twice. (The goal at Toronto was a very similar setup.)

Dami Viader: credit to him for putting a lovely cross and fighting for the league lead in chances created, while keeping his stranglehold on crosses attempted. We stan our Cross King.

JP Scearce: He dug deep and leapt high to put Dami’s cross back into the middle of the box. JP’s expected assist value for the game was 0.15, which was fifth best in the match behind 4 Chattanooga players, even though he provided the only assist in the game.

Greg Hurst: Man, this guy is on fire. That’s 5 goals in the last 3 home games for Greg. And he is finishing tough chances. His xG for the game was 0.26 and the chance he finished was less than 0.20. The data strongly indicates that his finishing skill is high. Goals minus expected goals (G-xG) is a good measure of finishing skill and since the start of 2019 (aka all of League One history) Greg has the 2nd highest mark according to American Soccer Analysis. He is behind only Ronaldo Damus in that category. Greg also ranks 3rd in goals scored all time in League One. (Reminder: we signed him on a free.)

This is the second game we’ve played against a top team in the league that we had less than perfect performance and still got a result (at Greenville). I think this bodes very well for the rest of the season. We can grind out results against good teams when we aren’t at our best, which is what teams that win trophies do. That said, while I love the bad blood that is brewing between these teams I’m not looking forward to playing Chattanooga again.

Red Wolves Finally Come to Omaha

As if you didn’t have enough to celebrate this weekend, get ready to celebrate tonight’s match against Chattanooga.  Werner Park hosts the Red Wolves and kickoff is set for 8 PM (CST).  If you can’t make it to the match, tune in to watch the live broadcast on ESPN+.  It would be hard to line up a better match with fireworks to follow the final whistle.  The Red Wolves are tied for 3rd place, riding on three wins in their last five matches.  Last week, they tied Greenville (2nd place) with a goal going both ways.

            Last year, the two clubs faced off only one time.  The first time Union Omaha made the trip to East Ridge, Tennessee, the match was postponed due to severe weather.  The next time the two clubs played each other, the Red Wolves gave Union Omaha their first league loss in club history.  Tonight will be another dose of history because the Red Wolves have never played a match in Werner Park.

            Union Omaha is undefeated in their last five matches, as well as undefeated at home.  Last week, fans were treated to another festive occasion, thanks to positive efforts across the board.  The winning goal came in the 6th minute from none other than Greg Hurst.  The Owls currently sit four points ahead of the Red Wolves, but need to create all of the distance they can because Chattanooga has two games in hand.  A win tonight would ensure a placement above the Red Wolves, even if they win both of those matches.

            It seems obvious to say, but tonight’s outcome will be determined by game strategy.  Sure, Chattanooga could go for the jugular and try to grind out a win.  More likely than not, they will play the long game and try to settle for a draw tonight.  A draw tonight would give them another point that could become useful down the line.  A second draw in as many weeks also helps to build confidence within the team, especially since those draws would have come against the top two teams in the standings.  Settling back and focusing on defending would save some legs and allow them a shorter recovery time before returning to Tennessee for two home matches.

            Don’t think for a second that Union Omaha will employ the same mindset.  Jay Mims as instilled a solid mindset within the club: win.  Tonight will be a battle, no doubt.  Mims has seemed to grow in his confidence as the team shuffles personnel around to fill the void that Evan Conway left due to his injury.  Devin Boyce has done a great job of forging up into the final third and disrupting the backline.  His continued irritation up top prevents calm distribution and adds an element of chaos, which is valuable to Union Omaha’s cause.  Let’s be honest here: Boyce seems to genuinely enjoy that bit of freedom, too.  Not only does it benefit Greg Hurst, since he can be within range to pick up a loose ball and convert the opportunity into chances on goal, but also because the midfield can press higher and close down the passing windows.  Chattanooga doesn’t pass as much as previous opponents, so tonight could be an exercise in shutting down their direct plays and limiting their time in the final third.

            If you haven’t had the chance to wish Luke a happy birthday, make sure you find him online or at the tailgate and make sure he feels appreciated.  He’s been working very hard to make sure things run smoothly with Parliament, this site, and the tailgates.  Speaking of tailgates, make sure you stop by and enjoy a beverage, BBQ, and music.  There will also be games to play, as well.  We’ve had a good turnout at every home match, so get your friends and family together and join the festivities!  Hope to see you all there.  ¡Viva Búhos!

USL League One Predictions: Week 13

So last week was a ho hum week, but not a bad week for yours truly. Ryan and Liam both took big hits last weekend, and now most of the table is getting pretty interesting as we’ve gotten through more than a third of the season.

It was an even better round for Luke, who somehow managed to increase his season total by almost 50% in one week alone. And judging by one of his picks below, he appears to think he’s really, really feeling it right now. That, or he’s thinking of revenge for Dami’s ribs.

BenJonLiamLukeRichRileyRyan
Greenville 2-2 Madison0002020
Toronto 3-1 Tormenta0100000
North Carolina 2-1 Richmond0100000
Chattanooga 1-1 Greenville0203300
New England 3-0 North Texas1101000
Fort Lauderdale 2-1 Toronto3011100
Omaha 1-0 Tucson1111131
Total5 pts6 pts2 pts8 pts5 pts5 pts1 pt
Week 12 Results
RecordPoints
Jon27-3240
Ryan25-3439
Liam21-3839
Rich24-3535
Riley19-4033
Ben20-3927
Luke20-3925
Week 12 Standings
BenJonLiamLukeRichRileyRyan
Forward Madison v. New England Revolution II (Wednesday, 19:00)0-01-11-10-11-21-0 🏝1-2
South Georgia Tormenta v. Toronto FC II (Wednesday, 19:00)2-12-12-12-02-11-02-2 🏝
Richmond Kickers v. North Texas SC (Saturday, 17:30)2-02-02-02-12-12-12-1
South Georgia Tormenta v. North Carolina FC (Saturday, 19:00)1-1 🏝2-01-22-12-12-11-2
Union Omaha v. Chattanooga Red Wolves (Saturday, 20:00)1-10-02-13-01-02-11-0
FC Tucson v. Fort Lauderdale CF (Saturday, 21:00)1-21-20-11-11-32-21-2
New England Revolution II v. Greenville Triumph (Sunday, 13:00)2-22-11-02-12-11-11-0

USL League One Ratings: Week 13

Last week felt like more of a routine week when compared with the previous week. Greenville may have a legitimate complaint to that comment, given that they played two of the top four teams in the league in a four day span. Toronto FC II are probably also glad that what has become their routine of playing two matches each week will disappear this week. Below are the updated ratings:

RankTeamRating
1Union Omaha (6-3-1)2.332
2Chattanooga Red Wolves (5-2-1)1.513
3Greenville Triumph (5-3-2)1.189
4Forward Madison (3-4-2)0.994
5New England Revolution II (4-1-4)0.492
6Richmond Kickers (3-3-4)0.280
7Toronto FC II (3-4-4)0.139
8Fort Lauderdale CF (5-2-6)-0.122
9FC Tucson (2-3-4)-0.131
10North Texas SC (3-2-4)-0.160
11South Georgia Tormenta (5-0-7)-0.667
12North Carolina FC (1-1-6)-1.390
Week 13 Ratings
Rank ΔTeamResult(s)Change
8 → 5New EnglandW 3-0 v. NTX🔼 0.459
12 ↔North CarolinaW 2-1 v. RIC🔼 0.369
4 ↔MadisonD 2-2 @ GVL🔼 0.277
10 → 8Fort LauderdaleW 2-1 v. TFC🔼 0.204
2 ↔ChattanoogaD 1-1 v. GVL🔼 0.156
3 ↔GreenvilleD 2-2 v. MAD
D 1-1 @ CRW
🔼 0.155
1↔OmahaW 1-0 v. TUC🔽 0.081
9 ↔TucsonL 0-1 @ OMA🔽 0.095
6 → 7TorontoW 3-1 v. TRM
L 2-1 @ FTL
🔽 0.161
11 ↔TormentaL 1-3 @ TFC🔽 0.286
5 → 6RichmondL 1-2 @ NCFC🔽 0.352
7 → 10North TexasL 0-3 @ NE🔽 0.403
Week 13 Change Summary

Some immediate takeaways I noticed once creating this table:

  • You notice a nice, expected inverse of matchups at the top and bottom of the list. New England and North Texas had the best and worse movements over the week, followed by North Carolina and Richmond. Then things get messy due to the irregular schedule.
  • Greenville moved up less than Madison and Chattanooga (though Chattanooga’s advantage is practically a rounding one only), even though they drew both sides. Madison’s higher rating bump makes sense because their match was in Greenville, but Chattanooga likely merely treaded water with Greenville because of Greenville’s earlier draw, and also because this run of form of theirs has lowered their rating to the point that these results are starting to become the norm.
  • Omaha and Tucson both saw similar movement, a slight decline in their rating. It’s fair to say that Union Omaha’s run on the road has been so good that a 1 goal victory at home to a below average team is going to be a detriment.

I also believe we’re going to see this constantly shuffling of positions in this large middle we currently have in the table, at least for a while. If North Carolina FC are actually turning a corner, then we might start seeing a more noticeable bottom tier (though Tormenta may give them a little assistance on that front). The same might be said at the top, as all three of last week’s top four teams trailing Union Omaha cut into their deficits.

While Union Omaha can’t be caught in the actual League One table this upcoming week by Chattanooga, it’s quite possible that they could be caught in the ratings with a loss. There would be no shame in losing to this Chattanooga team, but all loses at home hurt. This match, and New England-Greenville on Sunday are the matches that have the most potential to really shuffle the ratings around. Next week’s update should be very interesting (which means it probably won’t be).

Data Dump: Tucson (#1)

I had a great night at Werner Park this week did you? Nothing like an early goal and perfect weather to make the game go down easy. Despite the relative ease of the win, some interesting things still happened, so let’s dive in.

1) Greg Hurst loves Werner Park

One, who else is super happy we didn’t have to face Chattanooga at home last year? Greg would have scored a brace against us for sure. Two, we are not singing “Greg Hurst is on Fire” nearly enough. To me the whole point of the song is that it is an insidious ear worm that we want to place in the heads of the opposing defenses. We want to remind them they are terrified!

Anyway, back to the data. Greg Hurst started the scoring with a brilliant give and go with Sousa. I’m a frequent critic of the camera quality of ESPN+ coverage of League One. The clubs pay way too much money for the quality to be bad by 2010 standards. An upside to the single camera angle is that you could see Greg alter his run to lose his defender at the last second to head the ball into the goal. By the end of the first half the commentator was suggesting Greg could have had another hat-trick. So I was curious.

UO shots and goals, FC Tucson saves

As you can see Greg had 6 of our 12 shots for the game. Additionally, he had 3 of our 6 shots on target. And they were good shots. As it happens, Greg’s xG for this game was 1.6 (thank you American Soccer Analysis) indicating perhaps he could have scored more goals. Even crazier though, his xG in the last home match, the one where he had a hat-trick, was 0.9 xG.

2) Is Emir our lockdown defender?

I was surprised that Jay swapped JP out of the lineup for Emir, but figured a night of rest for JP would be fine. I was even more surprised when Conor Doyle lined up in central midfield and Emir on the left wing. Both players were hyped as Swiss Army Knife type players who could play anywhere, but according to Transfermarkt that was Emir’s first professional appearance at left midfield.

Watching in the 2nd half, it became obvious that Jay wanted to give Dami some extra help covering one of League One’s fastest players: Shak Adams. We kept our first clean sheet in 6 games, so hard to argue with any defensive choices, but Shak did create 3 chances in the game, compared to 8 chances created in his previous 7 matches.

Emir was sparkling at left midfield though, stuffing the stat sheet with 41 passes, 8 duels won (to 3 lost), 2 chances created, 0.67xA (expected assists (for context that was almost 2x Ferrety’s for the game), 2 interceptions, 3 fouls won, and none conceded.

3) A clean sheet!

As noted in my colleague Ryan’s article, we had gone a team record 6 games in a row with conceding a goal. Thankfully, we’re back on our clean sheeted ways. During those six games, we conceded all 7 goals we’ve allowed this season. We earned 9 points during those 6 games. Compared to 12 points earned in our 4 clean sheets, you can see why we all want clean sheets!

The starting back four (Viader, Crull, Knutson, Sousa) earned their first clean sheet as a unit, but the four backline players have actually all started during a clean sheet previously. During the 45 minute attempt to play Dami at left mid last year, those four players all started. They also were on the field together at the end of the first two games of the season.

Currently, we are top of the table and headed for a top 2 clash (by RPI) next weekend. I predict fireworks.

FC Tucson Preview

Happy Match Day, Búhos fans!  In their third home match this season, Union Omaha welcomes FC Tucson into Werner Park.  This will be the first time that these two clubs face one another this season.  In 2020, Union Omaha won both matches 2-1.  While there are different faces on both rosters, we can expect very similar statistics in tonight’s match.

FC Tucson currently sits in 11th place and nine points behind Union Omaha.  Despite FC Tucson only having two wins, both of those wins came on the road (against Toronto FC II and North Carolina FC).  Most of their opponents have come from the middle of the standings, so tonight will be a true test of mettle.  They currently have the best passing accuracy in the league, as well as conversion of shots to goals.  While they may be efficient with their passes and shots, they will find themselves lined up against Union Omaha, who has conceded the fewest goals in the league and has faced the second-lowest amount of shots.  The drama near the goal could very easily be outdone by drama near the ball.

The first time these two clubs played one another, they shared seven yellow cards.  Just over two weeks later, there three more yellow cards issued during their contest.  This season, both clubs have been awarded 20 yellow cards each, an average of two yellows a match for both clubs.  In the last four weeks, FC Tucson has also seen four red cards come their way.  In fact, the team was awarded two red cards last week during their match against North Texas SC.  When FC Tucson lines up against Union Omaha tonight, they’ll be without right back Noah Franke and right midfielder Gio Calixtro.  After earning a soft red against Toronto FC II, left back Maximiliano Schenfeld will be allowed to join the club and play in tonight’s match.  This development shouldn’t have much of an affect on how the team chooses their formation for tonight.

FC Tucson likes to line up in a 4-5-1 (4 defenders, 5 midfielders, and 1 forward).  With three midfielders pressing forward and two defensive midfielders, they have a balanced level of personnel across the field.  This allows them to pressure the ball sooner, maintain numbers on the flanks, and helps streamline their offense moving forward.  The club has maintained possession well, balancing their short passes with long passes.  They average more passes per game (452) than Union Omaha (375), yet still have just as many long passes (59) as Union Omaha (58).  They also like to win challenges in the air, so look for FC Tucson to have an effective offense moving forward.  This is also a club that will fight to take shots inside the penalty area.  They also gravitate away from a lot of flank play and crosses into the box, which is what Union Omaha fans are used to seeing from their club.  Hopefully Union Omaha will employ fluid personnel shifts to cover the middle of the field on defense and shift outside to dominate the flanks.  Since Union Omaha sticks to the 4-4-2 (4 defenders, 4 midfielders, and 2 forwards), look for the inside midfielders to cover a lot of ground.  Luckily, the Owls have a deep roster of high-quality central midfielders, so worries related to substitutions shouldn’t be a problem.

If Union Omaha wants to deal a morale-deflator to FC Tucson, they need to score first, keep the crowd involved, and hold off any goals from FC Tucson until the second half.  When FC Tucson scores in the first half, they have a 50% chance of winning.  However, if the other team scores first, regardless of the half, FC Tucson has only managed to win 20% of the time.  Union Omaha is undefeated when they score first, so make sure you get to Werner Park early, get your merchandise and food/drinks before kickoff, and get loud right away.  The Owls will need your support right from the get go.

Union Omaha looks to rebound from a disappointing draw against Richmond.  The club only has a one-point lead on Greenville in the standings, so earning three points will be crucial in the clubs quest to earning a first-round bye in the playoffs.  Including tonight’s match, Union Omaha has three home matches in a row.  This will be a great boost for the Owls because Werner Park is consistently the highest in attendance.  While on the road, FC Tucson has played in front of an average attendance of 807 people, the largest reported road attendance was 1,060 people, when the club faced off against North Carolina FC.  Werner Park hosted 3,677 people at the last home match.  With that many fans bellowing at the FC Tucson players, that level of opposition could have an affect on the field.  So if you’re coming to the match tonight, make some noise, let FC Tucson know you’re there, and support Union Omaha.

Evan Conway is still doubtful for tonight’s contest, as head coach Jay Mims has repeatedly stated Conway is going through recovery, even saying that it may be a couple of weeks until we see him again.  Mims is hesitant to rush Conway through his recovery and instead wants to be sure of his health before allowing him to return to the field for full contact.

Why does Who Gives A Hoot have such a good website?  Because Union Omaha is so good at stringing three W’s together.  I’m sorry…and you’re welcome.  Whether it’s the podcast or the articles, we’ve got you covered with all the fun and data you’re longing for.  Keep checking the website for updates, new posts, and make sure to follow our social media accounts, as well:

Twitter: @WGaH_Pod

Instagram: @wgahmedia

Union Omaha Milestones Part II

I’m back again with a quick article about players hitting appearance milestones as the season progresses. Over the next couple of weeks we have players hitting the 25 appearance mark in quick succession. If you need a bit of a refresher on what I’m talking about, click here to read my article from last week.

Against Richmond Devin Boyce became the first Union Omaha player to hit 25 appearances, doing so on the road and not giving us the chance to celebrate that achievement with him. Luckily, we have the chance to do that twice over the next two home matches. On Saturday June 26th EVD (4 MVP) will hit his 25 appearance milestone, should he appear against Tucson. Ethan was obviously a star on the team last year, not missing a single game, and is very deserving of this milestone achievement.

The next match, on July 3rd against Chattanooga, brings us the chance for TWO players to celebrate hitting 25 match appearances as both JP Scearce and Rashid Nuhu are on track to hit their 25th appearance in a Union Omaha shirt on that date.

While this many matches doesn’t seem like a major milestone, we need to continue to keep in mind that our club is going to play it’s 26th match EVER on June 26th. This goes to show the level of consistency we’ve had in our team over the short history of our club.

On a side note, you may have noticed I titled this article Union Omaha Milestones Part II and left out the appearances tag. This was done intentionally because other milestones may pop up as the season goes on. JR was kind enough to let me know that we’ve hit a milestone that isn’t one to celebrate, we have had a 6 game streak of conceding a goal. This is the longest stretch this club has gone without a shutout. Will we get a shutout this weekend? Come to Werner Park and find out!

Data Dump: at Richmond

“A tie where it feels like a loss” – Jay Mims. In his Mims’ Minute (incredible name by the way, wonder who came up with that one….) said just what I was thinking.

I felt Jay was dancing around the fact that the team let off the gas a bit after scoring our first goal and didn’t wake back up until they’d given up a goal. Recording the podcast, my co-hosts disagreed with me. Only one way to find out if they are wrong, let’s dive in.

1) Did we let off between goals?

In the past, we’ve had guests on the pod say, that as defenders, they believe if they keep a clean sheet their team will win. Could the attacking players hold a similar belief? If they score a goal, they don’t need any more goals to win?

I think they certainly acted like they felt that way during this game. My basic argument is that we stopped trying as hard to attack and score goals after the “shross heard round the league” and before a Richmond player bounced a ball off Tobias’ chest and into the goal.

Below I have included an image all of the shots and goals taken by Union Omaha and saves by Akira Fitzgerald. In the image after that I have done the same thing, but time constrained it for the time between goals (Sousa 31′, Otenio (OG) 76′).

Shots, goals and saves for #RICvOMA
Shots, goals, and saves between goals in the game.

So Union Omaha had 21 shots in the game. Just 4 of those shots (19%) happened in the half of the game (45′) that took place between goals. Akira Fitzgerald had 8 saves in the game. Just 1 of those 8 saves (12.5%) took place in the 45 minutes between goals.

Thanks to the incredible folks at American Soccer Analysis, we can run this theory past xG for the match as well.

g+ GameFlow: USL League One Regular Season @RichmondKickers v @Union_Omaha on June 19, 2021. #RVAisRED #UpTheOwls #RICvOMA

Originally tweeted by GameFlow (@GameFlowxPG) on June 20, 2021.

So my theory doesn’t hold up as well to the Max Goal Probability chart as it does to the shot and save charts. However, that 15 plus minute stretch (60′-75′) where we literally generated ZERO xG does indicate at least a small issue in generating attack after we scored a goal.

2) Akira Fitzgerald was heroic

The chart above looks good for us. The metrics look good for us. And even though our xG wasn’t off the charts at 1.66, Akira Fitzgerald was still amazing. How amazing? Well his 8 saves in the match, currently ranks 3rd for saves in a single game in all of League One in 2021. Too bad it was against us.

3) Possession & chances
If you had told me going into the game we’d have 44.4% of the possession, 18 chances (tied for season best) and 42.9% shooting accuracy, I’d tel you we would win that game easily. But as discussed above, we did not.

In fact, the last time we had less than 45% possession and didn’t earn 3 points was our fifth game last season: 8/23/2020 at North Texas, a run of 19 matches. You can try and attribute this one to a superlative performance from Akira Fitzgerald, but we went more than 50 minutes between shots on target. I think we fumbled the bag with three points in it a little bit on this one.

The good news is that two our closest rivals (MAD & GVL (not just emotional rivals either, as of 6/24/20 those two clubs have the 3rd and 4th best chances of making the playoffs according to SportsClubStats; we are number 2 on that list)) have had an even worse time than us since our game kicked off. While we had an unfortunate own goal, a season’s best performance from their goalkeeper, and a 45 minute long power outage, each of those teams lost over the weekend and drew each other midweek. The bad news is Chattanooga is looking great despite letting us sign their best players in the offseason. But no need to look past this weekend. See you at Werner Park on Saturday to beat Tucson!

USL League One Predictions: Week 12

Unsurprisingly, a few matches with a line of straight zeros. But, kudos to Luke and Ryan for picking the Baby Revs to beat Madison, I obviously wasn’t that bold.

But who else deserves kudos? How about Liam continuing to defy logic by lapping Luke while only having four more wins than him? I’m not officially condoning this, but all I’m saying is that there are betting sites that let you pick the exact outcomes of matches (with, unsurprisingly favorable odds), and the knockout stage of the Euros is right around the corner.

Until that time, let’s see how creative I can be with making incorrect predictions. Hot takes below:

BenJonLiamLukeRichRileyRyan
Greenville 2-1 North Carolina1110111
Fort Lauderdale 2-2 Toronto0000002
Richmond 1-1 Omaha0030000
Toronto 2-1 Fort Lauderdale3030000
Madison 0-2 New England0001001
Tormenta 3-1 Greenville0000000
North Texas 0-0 Tucson0000000
Chattanooga 3-2 North Carolina1111101
Total5 pts2 pts8 pts2 pts2 pts1 pt5 pts
Week 11 Results
RecordPoints
Ryan24-2838
Liam19-3337
Jon22-3034
Rich21-3130
Riley17-3528
Ben17-3522
Luke15-3717
Week 11 Standings
BenJonLiamLukeRichRileyRyan
Greenville Triumph v. Forward Madison (Wednesday, 18:00)3-11-01-00-01-01-12-1
Toronto FC II v. South Georgia Tormenta (Wednesday, 18:00)2-2 🏝2-1 🏝0-10-11-20-11-3
North Carolina FC v. Richmond Kickers (Friday, 18:00)0-11-0 🏝1-21-1 🏝0-21-21-2
Chattanooga Red Wolves v. Greenville Triumph (Saturday, 18:00)2-12-21-2 🏝1-11-12-02-1
New England Revolution II v. North Texas SC (Saturday, 18:00)2-13-11-3 🏝2-11-12-21-1
Fort Lauderdale CF v. Toronto FC II (Saturday, 18:30)2-12-32-02-02-01-1 🏝2-3
Union Omaha v. FC Tucson (Saturday, 19:00)2-03-02-02-02-01-03-1
Week 12 Predictions