Preview: Union Omaha @ North Texas SC

The Owls are back in action as they face North Texas SC in their return leg that features the USL One defending champions. Kickoff is slated for 8PM CST at Globe Life Park in Arlington, Texas.

Union Omaha

Their last match, was a tough, physical game against Forward Madison. It led to each team scoring one goal which finished in a draw. Sebastian Contreras earned his first goal for the club with a paneka style penalty kick as Ethan Vanacore Decker earned the penalty inside the Madison box. 

Union Omaha dominated possession against the Flamingos. The Owls had over 60% possession as they controlled the flow and style of the entire game. 

Do not expect the Owls to earn a high portion of the possession against North Texas. North Texas thrives on playing out of the back while creating their chances utilizing build up play. This starts with the goalkeeper moving all the way to the forwards; ala Pep Guardiola. 

The middle of the park will be key for the Owls success against North Texas. Midfielders Contreras and Tyler David dictated the game against the Texan club last time out even without the ball. Their ability to communicate and the keep the team in shape helped the Owls counter when they earned the ball. This is a key to success for the Owls and something to watch out for in this away leg. 

North Texas

A strange season so far for the returning champions as they have yet to hit form with their only win coming in week 1. North Texas faced two of the bottom feeders in USL One in their last couple of matches. Their game against last place New England Revolution ended in a 3-3 draw at home. 

Last game, North Texas lost to newly minted club, Fort Lauderdale CF 3-2. Former Creighton University alum, Ricky Lopez-Espin scored a brace for the Inter Miami affiliated club which gave them all three points. 

The issue for North Texas has been turnovers especially turnovers at the wrong time. North Texas is leading the league in passing percentage at 84%, but the majority of their conceded goals are coming from lackadaisical passes from the center backs and goalkeeper. 

The first goal that North Texas conceded against Fort Lauderdale was an ugly, Ill timed sequence from North Texas. Goalkeeper Carlos Avilez stood on top of the ball for far too long which invited pressure from Fort Lauderdale. He hurried a pass to his teammate, Derek Waldeck, who scuffed a pass straight to the opposing player. Fort Lauderdale was inside the box in a hurry and Lopez-Espin was able to bury the opening goal. 

North Texas needs to clean these mistakes up if they want to beat Union Omaha and get back into the playoff picture, but right now their clumsy passing is hurting their chances at a repeat title. 

Lastly, North Texas winger, Benjamin Redzic came off of the pitch against Fort Lauderdale with a knock in the 15’. It is unclear if he will play against Union Omaha. His attacking style of play along with his creativity makes him one of the most dangerous players for North Texas. If he misses the game due to injury, North Texas may struggle for goals against a stout Union Omaha defense. 

My Prediction

Union Omaha 2-1 North Texas SC

It is hard to see North Texas cleaning up their backline issues after such a short layoff since the Fort Lauderdale game (4 days). But, playing at home will help the Texas club. The Owls will have added motivation to earn three points and solidify their spot as the second place team in the league. Two Union Omaha goals in the first half will help them see the game out to victory over North Texas SC while the Texas club is left scratching their heads in eighth place. 

Data Dump: Union Omaha v. Forward Madison

What a game last night. Statistically, we dominated in almost every category, but it didn’t feel like we dominated. I went home relieved we salvaged a point, but frustrated that we left two points on the field. Others I talked to also were frustrated with how the game played out. I will dig into the data and share some insights that might explain that frustration

1) Passing and Possession aren’t everything

We had 64.3% of the possession in this game and we made 490 passes. This is about 8% more possession and 10% more passes than our previous high for each stat. Let’s look at where our successful passes were:

Union Omaha v Forward Madison: Union Omaha successful passes

Notice the lack of successful passes in the box and the final third? Here is all passes attempted in the final third.

Union Omaha v Forward Madison: Union Omaha successful and unsuccessful passes in the final third

I see a lot of successful passes away from the opposing goal and a lot of unsuccessful passes toward the goal. But wait, let’s add crosses into the mix…

Union Omaha v Forward Madison: Union Omaha unsuccessful passes and crosses

To me, this begins to explain the feeling of dissatisfaction. Lots and lots of balls into the box and in attacking positions that were unsuccessful. Check out the same chart from the FC Tucson match

FC Tucson v Union Omaha: Union Omaha unsuccessful passes and crosses

Overall, the direction and volume of unsuccessful passes is what I’d identify as a statistical explanation for the frustration fans are feeling.

2) Ferrety Sousa had a great shift

Last night, Ferrety played a bit of the Elma role from our first two games. All energy, all action super sub off the bench. Here is a chart of all the actions Ferrety took last night.

Union Omaha v Forward Madison: Ferrety Sousa all actions

Compare that to Elma’s super sub appearance against North Texas that won him a starting spot.

Union Omaha v North Texas: Elma Nfor all actions

Obviously, this is not an apples to apples comparison, but it was a successful appearance for sure for Ferrety.

3) Madison didn’t bother to attack very much.

Every single ‘mingo’s average position is either touching the midline or in their defensive half. This is the first team we’ve played who have not had multiple players in the attacking half.

Union Omaha v Forward Madison: Average positions.

I’d give credit to our league leading defense (based on shots allowed), but anyone who watched the game could see Madison wasting every second they could from the 8th minute onward.

Union Omaha and Forward Madison split points

“O Captain! my Captain! our fearful trip is done”, the famous Walt Whitman poem begins. Union Omaha’s 1-1 draw against Forward Madison was poetic or film-like as club captain, Sebastian Contreras would say.

“It was like a movie,” Contreras said. 

Union Omaha leveled the score with a stunning, paneka style penalty kick from Contreras. Forward Madison struggled to clear the ball after a long pass was put into the box. Flamingos defender Connor Tobin lunged at the ball clipping Ethan Vanacore-Decker in the box for the obvious penalty. 

“I saw the ball and I went for it,” Contreras said through translation. “It was going to be me who was going to kick it.” 

Contreras’ goal knotted up the score at one goal a piece. Forward Madison took the lead in the 8’ from a free kick by midfielder Michael Vang. The cross found the head of Eric Leonard who glancing shot looped over Owls’ goalkeeper, Rashid Nuhu for the opening goal. 

Union Omaha Head Coach, Jay Mims was not worried about the team’s set piece defending. 

“That’s professional soccer,” Mims said. “Most goals come off of set pieces.” 

Union Omaha dominated possession the entire game with 64% of the ball which resulted in many opportunities to find the winner especially in the second half. 

Damia Viader looked great in the match against Madison utilizing his skillset that he has shown throughout the season. His speed and crossing ability has made the Owls dangerous in the attacking third. 

Substitutes Ferrety Sousa and Elvir Ibisevic came onto the pitch in the 60’ and provided an instant spark. 

“Those few guys [Sousa and Ibisevic] that came in brought us something and changed the game,” Mims said. 

Shot after shot came in the second half to no avail as Forward Madison defender Josiah Trimmingham earned his second yellow in the 83’. Madison was down to 10 men for the closing minutes as the Union Omaha attack could not earn the winning goal. 

“We were hoping for that second goal, Sousa missed that open one that hit off of the post and Elvir had one cleared off the line,” Mims said. “Scoring goals is the hardest thing to do,” 

This was the most possession that Union Omaha has earned all season as the Owls dominated and dictated the style of play all game. 

“We had 65% possession so that was good for the fans for the fans to see a different style and different look,” Mims said. 

Union Omaha’s next game pits the Owls against North Texas SC in Dallas on Sunday, August 23rd at 8 PM CT. 

3 Questions: Forward Madison (Home)

Here are the three questions on my mind (plus a bonus question!) before our game against the Flamingos.

1) Is Forward Madison a good soccer team?

Regardless of how you feel about their supporters, this season has been a mixed bag for Forward on the field. They’ve lost twice on the road: once to an okay Richmond team and once a possibly good, possibly bad North Texas team. But they have a very convincing home record with their 4-0 win against Tormenta (albeit against the worst defense in the League) and their draw against Greenville, which is the only game all year in which the Triumph has dropped points. Our very own Elo rankings have Madison as the fourth best team in the league right now (we’re third). Without the lines of four different sports on the field to confuse their opponents is Madison able to put it together for a competitive match in Omaha?

2) Which lineup will we see for Los Buhos?

Will Jay recall the team that beat Tuscon or put forth the rotated squad that was going to play Chattanooga, or a mixture of the two? My guess is the mixture of the two, but we’ll learn a lot about Jay’s rotation policy when the lineups come out. Don’t forget we have to go to North Texas for a Sunday night game, but it has been 10 days since we last played so everyone should be rested and healthy. Which game does Jay think needs our A lineup?

3) Will the game on the field look and feel like a rivalry game?

The chirping back and forth between supporters on Twitter has been nearly constant since the end of last season. Union Omaha fans’ desire for a rivalry with the best supported team in League One was egged on by the provocative actions of the front office (myself way guiltier than all others combined) over the winter. But after months of being told we aren’t rivals by Forward fans, I think UO supporters have given up on the idea of a rivalry between the clubs. After all rivalries do require two competitive teams on the field and two willing fanbases off the field and Madison seems to be putting forward neither right now. 

Ok, cheap shots aside, I’ve always believed that the first game between the two teams will determine if there is a rivalry or not. If the game has some controversial calls that go Omaha’s way, if the Owls crush the ‘Mingos, if Evan Conway has an outrageous anti-Madison celebration (suggestion for any goal scorers reading this: stand on one leg, flap your arms, and then fall over), Madison fans may realize they absolutely detest our team and our fanbase. If it happens, that is what will spark a rivalry. If it doesn’t happen, so be it, we will have rivals soon enough.

Bonus question: will Philipp Marceta acknowledge my heckles about his recent attempt to follow my wife on instagram?

Seriously, this happened on Monday. I can’t emphasize enough that my wife is her own person and whomever she allows to follow her is entirely her decision and it has no bearing on me or our relationship. BUT, man is it a strange coincidence. Was he looking for her pithy insta stories about politics and social work memes, maybe seeking princess photos of our girls that I’ve somehow neglected to post, or just trying to build his brand one opposing female fan at a time? [Editor’s note: Ben isn’t that special, Philipp followed me as well. Based on his photos he is an average fisherman and an above average person, even if he unfollowed me.] I intend to satisfy my curiosity!

Preview: Union Omaha vs Forward Madison

Union Omaha faces Forward Madison in Week 6 of USL One competition on Wednesday, August 19th at 7pm CST in Omaha. The Owls come into this weekday clash after strange circumstances in Chattanooga while the Flamingos come off of their first win in 2020. 

Union Omaha

The Owls return to action after 10 days to face Forward Madison in Werner Park. Last week, the Owls were supposed to face Chattanooga Red Wolves in a matchup that pitted second and third place, yet mother nature had other ideas. The two teams were delayed due to lightning and rain. The delay took too long and play could not begin because CHI Memorial Stadium in Chattanooga has not been fitted for professional lighting suitable to play at night. This made the game impossible to play so the Owls were sent home without playing the game. 

Exciting things were bound to happen against Chattanooga. Forward Elvir Ibisevic was primed to make his first start of the season with centerback Daltyn Knutson getting back with his first start since suffering an injury after the game against New England 2 . It is unclear if Head Coach Jay Mims will return to the usual starting lineup of Forwards Evan Conway, Ethan Vanacore-Decker and Juan Mare or if he will turn to Ibisevic or Elma N’for.

Union Omaha will rely on the attacking prowess of Damia Viader who has created 8 chances which ranks him seventh in chances created in the USL One. Also, Vanacore-Decker has created 7 chances which has bolstered Union Omaha’s attack. 

Forward Madison

This game against the Owls will show if the Flamingos are contenders or pretenders. Madison is currently in 7th place with 4 points making them ahead of Orlando City B and Fort Lauderdale CF on goal differential. 

The first win of the season came last Friday when they defeated South Georgia Tormenta FC. The Flamingos dismantled a Tormenta team that was short on staff and players due to COVID-19 restrictions. Madison won 4-0 earning the clean sheet as four different Flamingos’ players scored. 

Last Week’s USL One Player of the Week came from Madison as forward Don Smart earned the honors. Smart recorded a goal and two assists against Tormenta which added to his total of most chances created for the Flamingos with 7. Smart and fellow striker Wojciech Wojcik are the two players to keep an eye on for the Madison club. Wojcik leads the club with two goals and has been a constant threat in front of net. 

Young midfielder, Michael Vang earned his first goal in Madison against Tormenta. The 20-year-old graduated from the prestigious Shattuck-St. Mary’s Highschool which has produced the most Division One soccer players in the country. Vang decided to forgo his college playing and enter straight into the professional ranks. HIs strong play against Tormenta may see him in the starting XI against Union Omaha. 

My Prediction

Union Omaha 3-1 Forward Madison

Union Omaha earns the victory in easy fashion as the Owls lead 2-0 at the half thanks to goals from Vanacore-Decker and midfielder Devin Boyce. This would be Boyce’s first career professional goal. Forward Madison’s goal should come in the second half from solid build up play and an effective cross from Smart. The Owls will finish the Flamingos off due to a late goal from a substitute, either N’for or Ibisevic will slot it past the keeper for the home side. 

Editorial: Lights

Normally after a game-day I would be re-watching, dissecting, and basking in the glory that is Union Omaha’s brand of lower division soccer. However, August 12th 2020 did not afford me such an opportunity. On a hot summer afternoon in Chattanooga TN, much like many other hot summer afternoons, rain and lightning graced CHI Memorial Park with a prolonged presence, resulting in a rain delay.

Now, I know what you’re thinking, “a rain delay, that’s no problem, why not wait it out and play late like Union Omaha did at their first home match”? Simple answer, lights.

The work teams across the USL have done in creating new, vibrant, and expensive soccer specific stadiums, has been down right impressive and frankly, needed. Soccer has never looked more ready to become a stakeholder in the lives of your average American sports viewer than it is now. Third division soccer teams playing in USL League One like the Chattanooga Red Wolves and South Georgia Tormenta are creating great spaces for professional soccer to thrive! This impressive rush to build stadiums across America leads me to the point of this rant… rushing.

As everyone reading this will know, 2020 is a year unique for many reasons, not least of which is the global pandemic caused by COVID-19. When the decision to play was made a season by the League One board of governors, it was not in a bubble, it was not without fans, it was going to happen throughout the nationwide footprint of the third division league. Our lads were going to be taking buses, planes, travelling to areas where the impact of the pandemic might be higher, all for the sake of playing the sport we love to watch them play.

Why, if players and staff are risking more than their pride, would you create a place that not guarantee travel was wasted? Chattanooga did just that by failing to look at lighting options.

A 5 minute internet search finds a plethora of light rental options for modular, generator based lighting options for affordable prices in the Chattanooga area. If I can manage that in 5 minutes, given a month of lead time from schedule release to your first and second home games, wouldn’t you think a front office would look into that option?

My issue is not that the stadium is unfinished, delays happen. It is that our players spent 3 days in Chattanooga, during a global pandemic, for a game that did not happen due to a fully avoidable circumstance. How is that acceptable? How were Union Omaha not awarded the 3 points for a forfeit? At the end of the day, it was human error, not weather, that caused the cancellation. I’m pretty sure that’s grounds for a forfeit.

It seems as though the Red Wolves and league took near immediate action following the postponement of the game, by rescheduling the remainder of Chattanooga’s home games for 1pm ET. The questions now moves to, was it hubris that games were not initially scheduled for that time? Is the schedule change fair for your sponsors who are expecting evening games? Is it fair to your fans who were expecting evening games out of the hot sun? Is it fair to the players, who are now playing in that same hot sun? The questions are out there and I’m curious to find the answers.

Unless something changes, our lads will be travelling again to Chattanooga during this pandemic to play a game that should already have happened. Something that renting some lights would have solved.

Owl Props 08/18

All we do is win win win no matter what. That is on the minds of everybody who watched that FC Tucson match! Although Union Omaha is 0-1 against lightning storms this season, they are bringing the strike to the pitch and to our wallets! If you decided to ride with me during the FC Tucson game you got PAID with their performance, and you would be a fool not to ride with me when they go up against Forward Madison.

Just a friendly reminder to everyone, Who Gives a Hoot is an independent podcast, and we have no affiliation with Union Omaha. I know just as much information about players as you all do: Zero. Zip. Nada. So when you read this article please only read this article coming from somebody who has gambling experience. No bets are guaranteed.

Week 4 and 5 is in the books everyone, and despite Union Omaha missing out their match against Chattanooga Red Wolves, the owls are in 2nd place and are in contention to pass Greenville and get that first place spot. Since we didn’t have a game against Chattanooga, that means the next match will be against Forward Madison Wednesday at 7:00 PM. The weather seems like its going to be decent, with the real feel temperature being at 81 degrees F and the wind being at 9 MPH. The wind might be a little concerning but I don’t think its going to be anything that will cause concern.

Without further ado, lets get down to the nitty gritty and make some picks!

  • Evan Conway, 0.5 Goals+ Assists, Over 135
    • Evan Conway, coming off an incredible high from scoring the game winning goal and first goal in club history against North Texas, showed up again to nab an assist in the FC Tucson game. With a unintended break this week Evan Conway’s batteries are going to be recharged going up against Forward Madison and you can guess that he is going to be involved in scoring a goal. Take the over. GG Easy.
  • Rashid Nuhu, 3.5 Saves, Under 125
    • Now for people who follow along with Owl Props, you know that I have been a huge fan of Rashid and his goal keeping capabilities. You know that I have affectionately referred to Union Omaha’s defense as a Brick Wall. Now sometimes, a brick wall can get sometimes wear and tear and may inevitably have some cracks. Last game FC Tucson managed to find one of those cracks and managed to score a goal against Rashid. I don’t care if your name happens to be Manuel Neuer or Piotr Cech, you can’t stop a goal that you can’t see, and if that happens to be the one crack in this brick wall defense, I’ll take it, but I can guarantee you that a goal like that won’t happen for Forward Madison. 3.5 saves. Take the under folks.
  • Tyler David, 0.5 Goals + Assists, Under 65
    • Tyler David came out onto the pitch late against FC Tucson due to rest, but still provided an instant impact on the pitch. I suspect him to start against Forward Madison and provide a solid midfield presence as he does every single time he touches the ball. I don’t expect him to be on the offensive much this game so taking the under on his performance is a safe bet.
  • Elma Nfor, 0.5 Goals, Over 135
    • Elma Nfor is the most underrated player on Union Omaha’s roster. The former Lansing United man is an instant impact player whom played a huge role in Union Omaha’s goal against North Texas. This man is HUNGRY for goals. If Elma doesn’t get the start against Forward Madison he will come on as a sub and score.
  • Ethan Vanacore-Decker, 0.5 Assists, Over 130
    • My man EVD got all the praise in his performance against FC Tucson and deserved all of it. The Uncle Rico of USL League One is THE goal scorer for Union Omaha and if you don’t think he is going to be involved in all of Union Omaha’s goals against the Flamingos from Madison (which I don’t think people talk about enough. Why would Flamingos be in Wisconsin? So bizarre) you are crazier than I am.
  • ICE PICK: Luke Hauswirth, 0.5 Goals, Over 140
    • Luke Hauswirth came out of nowhere against FC Tucson and scored a goal against his former team. Forward Madison is having such an up and down season that I believe we may have the most goals scored against a team in USL League One in the history of the league, and Luke can very well score against Madison again to help.
  • ICE PICK: Illal Osumanu, 0.5 Goals + Assists, Under 65
    • Illal is having a dynamite season so far, and a huge reason why Union Omaha has only allowed 1 goal so far this season. Just as he has been in previous weeks, I believe that he will be staying back mostly this game and I don’t suspect him to be upfront, but rather keeping sure that Union Omaha keeps this brick wall defense rolling.

And there you have it folks, my picks for the upcoming Union Omaha match against Forward Madison. If you would like to follow along with these picks or make your own suggestions than head on over to thrivefantasy.com or download the ThriveFantasy app now and use promo code HOOT when you create your account. When you use promo code HOOT and you deposit a minimum of $10 or more you will receive $10. That’s free money folks so head to over to ThriveFantasy and #PropUp on the Union Omaha Match.

League 1 Elo Explainer

Who Gives a Hoot’s exclusive League 1 Elo Rankings are created by local wizard and Union Omaha fan, Jon Ryan. We will be releasing updated rankings each Monday as part of the Data Dump column or when Union Omaha doesn’t play as a standalone. What follows is a full explanation of the work he is doing in his own words.

The Elo rating system (named after its developer, Arpad Elo) was originally designed to determine the skill levels of individual players in what are known as zero-sum games, in this case chess was the game Elo was most interested in.  However this formula can be adapted to consider other games and sports, soccer of course being one of them.  While not officially used by FIFA, Elo ratings are still calculated to this day in international soccer.  As of the writing of this document (August 12, 2020) Belgium is currently the highest rated team, and have been since November 16, 2019.

The “zero-sum” aspect of an Elo rating system is still respected regarding soccer in that at the conclusion of a match, one team’s rating will increase a specific amount and their opponent’s will decrease by the exact same amount.  Numerous variables go into calculating a team’s rating after the result of a particular match:

  • Their rating prior to the match
  • The rating of their opponent prior to the match
  • The location of the match (home vs. away vs. neutral)
  • The result of the match (including goal difference)
  • The importance of the match (friendly, tournament, final, etc.)

Using the elements above, a formula can be calculated to determine the adjustment to a rating from the results of an individual match.  The basic formula used is:

Ro + P = Rn

The variables above are defined as:
Rn = New team rating
Ro = Old team rating
P = Change in points

The “P” variable has a formula of its own: P = KG (W – We)
The variables above are defined as:
K = Weight applied based on the match importance (see table below)
G = Number from an index applied based on goal difference (see table below)
W = Match result (1 for a win, 0.5 for a draw)
We = Expected result (see formula below)

How to determine “K”
Table for variable labeled “K”:

Match TypeK
Regular Season30
Postseason40
League Final50

How to determine “G”
The variable listed as “G” will simply have a value of 1 if a match ends in a draw or a one goal difference.  If the result of a match is a two goal difference, the value of “G” is 1.5.  For all other results, the following formula is used, where “N” is the goal difference of the match:

G = (11 + N) / 8

Using the above formula, the index that determines “G” looks like this:

Goal Difference01234567
G111.51.751.87522.1252.25

How to determine “We“
Finally, we need to determine win expectancy.  This formula looks complicated, but when you have a spreadsheet to do all of the work for you it’s not so bad:

We = 1 / (10 -dr/400 + 1)

“dr” is the difference between the two team’s ratings.  If the match is not at a neutral location, add 100 points to the home team’s rating before calculating.

It’s as simple as that! 
A team with an Elo rating of 1500 is considered to be an average team, so in order to calculate these ratings each team started with an equal rating of 1500 at the beginning of the 2019 season.  Here is an example of how the match on March 30, 2019 between Orlando City B and FC Tucson (both club’s season openers) was calculated, a match won by FC Tucson 3-1:

Orlando City B (Home)

We = 1 / (10 -dr/400 + 1)

We = 1 / (10-((1500+100)-1500))/400 + 1)

We = 1 / (10-(100/400) + 1)

We = 1 / (10-.25 + 1)

We = 1 / 1.562

We = .6401 (64.01%)

P = KG (W – We)

P = 30 (1.5) (0 – .6401)

P = -28.8029

Rn  = Ro + P

Rn = 1500 – 28.8029

Rn = 1471.1971

FC Tucson (Away)

We = 1 / (10 -dr/400 + 1)

We = 1 / (10-(1500-(1500+100))/400 + 1)

We = 1 / (10-(-100/400) + 1)

We = 1 / (10.25 + 1)

We = 1 / 2.778279

We = .3599 (35.99%)

P = KG (W – We)

P = 30 (1.5) (1 – .3599)

P = 28.8029

Rn  = Ro + P

Rn = 1500 + 28.8029

Rn = 1528.8029

As you can see above, everything that is not a constant is in direct relation to the opponent due to the zero sum nature of Elo rankings. For example, each team’s chances of winning the match are combined to equal 1, and the winning team gains the same number of points that the defeated team loses.  Naturally these ratings fluctuate over the course of the season, leading to the following ratings right before the 2019 USL League One final played between North Texas and Greenville Triumph (rounded to the nearest point):

TeamRating
North Texas1635
Greenville Triumph1576
Lansing Ignite1562
Forward Madison1556
Chattanooga Red Wolves1503
South Georgia Tormenta1475
Toronto FC II1471
FC Tucson1453
Richmond Kickers1450
Orlando City B1318

Let’s look at an example from one more match from last season, the 2019 USL League One Cup Final (for the sake of simplicity, ratings are rounded to the nearest whole number for display purposes only, results below are from the calculation of the actual ratings):

North Texas Soccer Club

We = 1 / (10 -dr/400 + 1)

We = 1 / (10-((1635+100)-1576))/400 + 1)

We = 1 / (10-(159/400) + 1)

We = 1 / (10-.3975 + 1)

We = 1 / 1.4004

We = .7141 (71.41%)

P = KG (W – We)

P = 50 (1) (1 – .7141)

P = 14.2907

Rn  = Ro + P

Rn = 1635 + 14.2907

Rn = 1649.2907

Greenville Triumph

We = 1 / (10 -dr/400 + 1)

We = 1 / (10-(1576-(1635+100))/400 + 1)

We = 1 / (10-(-159/400) + 1)

We = 1 / (10.3975 + 1)

We = 1 / 3.49747

We = .2859 (28.59%)

P = KG (W – We)

P = 50 (1) (0 – .2859)

P = 14.2907

Rn  = Ro + P

Rn = 1576 – 14.2907Rn = 1561.7093

So, that’s the 2019 season in a nutshell.  Now, how do we handle the start of the 2020 season? 
Should roster churn account for anything?  What about new teams?  So, obviously, just because 2020 is Union Omaha’s first season doesn’t mean we should pretend 2019 didn’t happen.  That’s why in order to begin tracking how Union Omaha compares to the rest of the league, the 2019 season needed to be calculated first.  Then, I arbitrarily decided to reduce all team’s gains/losses over the course of the previous season by 50% to account for roster churn, venue changes, and coaching changes.  So, each team moved closer to 1500 (that base position representing an average team) while all new teams were assigned a new value of 1500 to start the 2020 season.  These adjustments can be seen below:

Team2019 final rating2020 opening rating
North Texas16501575
Greenville Triumph15621531
Lansing Ignite1562R.I.P.
Forward Madison15561528
Chattanooga Red Wolves15031502
South Georgia Tormenta14751488
Toronto FC II1471¯\_(ツ)_/¯
FC Tucson14531477
Richmond Kickers14501475
Orlando City B13181409
Fort Lauderdale CDF—1500
New England II—1500
Union Omaha—1500

With this as the baseline we’ve been testing our model each week and are ready to go live at the end of Matchweek 5.

3 Questions: Chattanooga Red Wolves (Away)

Juan Mare pondering if he will score against his old club. Photo by Simon Asher

1) How do we slow down Greg Hurst?

Greg Hurst has four goals on six shots (all of which were on target) and one assist with two crosses. Even in this small sample size season, it seems unlikely he will keep up his rate of one goal per 62.5 minutes for the whole season, but he will be the hottest player the Union Omaha has faced to date. No player on the Red Wolves has more than one assist, but two players have created four chances each while three other players have created three chances each. As such it should take a team defensive effort to shut down the Red Wolves attack.

League One’s best defense should be up to the challenge though, and as a bonus it looks like we will find out what happens when an unstoppable object meets a brick wall.

2) How does Jay rotate the midfield?

We saw a brand new midfield combo on Saturday night in Tuscon with JP Scearce coming in for Tyler David. The midfield didn’t seem to miss a beat with the rotation of players. Will Jay show us a combination we’ve seen before or rotate players again and give us a new lineup. This game is going to be the first real fitness test for the players and I have no idea what Jay thinks about load management. Hard to see changes on the back line and we’ll talk about player selection in the attack next, but I could see any of six midfielders starting (Devin Boyce, JP Scearce, Tyler David, Sebastian Contreas, Christian Molina, Austin Panchot) in three spots in almost any combination.

Note: I’m unwilling at this time to explore what position Evan Conway is actually playing right now and equally unwilling to speculate on whether we are playing a 4-4-2 or 4-3-3. When it becomes an issue we’ll address it.

3) Who generates the offense?

Ethan Vanacore-Decker, Elma Nfor, and Evan Conway memorably combined for the first goal in club history. But did you know that in the 82 minutes they have been on the pitch together, Los Buhos have scored all of their goals? (Ethan has been involved directly in all three. Please consider this the official kickoff of the ‘Uncle Rico for MVP’ campaign.) How long will we get the Triple E offense (spelled offEEEnse) in this game? Does JP finally score from outside the box after forcing amazing saves in each of his last two appearances? Will Juan Mare break out against his old club?

TUNE IN AT 4PM CST TO FIND OUT!