Union Omaha Props

Its Super Bowl weekend, and one of my favorite parts of the Super Bowl are all the insane proposition bets that sportsbooks list.  While the really fun ones involve props like the length of the national anthem, who the MVP will thank first in their speech and which song will The Weeknd open the halftime show with, there are many, many more individual propositions involving the game itself.  In honor of this favorite pastime of mine, I thought it would be fun to come up with some Union Omaha prop bets for the fans of WGaH to offer some guesses at.  Let’s get started!

Union Omaha scored 20 goals last season, which is at a clip of 1.25 goals per game.  I think most of us are assuming we will improve on that number this season but let’s see what the guys think about, say, 1.4 goals per game.  With 28 games planned for the 2021 regular season, that’s 39.2 goals.  Let’s round that up a little for our first prop:

Over/Under: 39.5 goals scored by Union Omaha in the 2021 regular season

Evan Conway led Union Omaha with six goals last season, which was also fifth most in the league.  There are a lot of things to consider with a longer season coming up, like are we able to spread the wealth more, will our roster be larger and things of that nature, but let’s ask:

Over/Under 11.5 goals scored by Union Omaha’s leading goal scorer for the 2021 regular season

It’s time to give a little bit of love to the defense, Union Omaha did give up the third fewest goals in the season last year after all. Let’s go over a fun, and maybe a little random, prop that recognizes the guys that are willing to go hard after the ball. This prop takes into consideration that we don’t have a full roster yet:

Union Omaha’s leading tackler in the 2021 regular season (pick which you think has the best value)

Damia Viader: -130
Tobias Otieno: +110
Devin Boyce: +300
Daltyn Knutson: +500
Conor Doyle: +500
JP Scearce: +700
Field: +1000

Rashid Nuhu impressed in his first season with 6 clean sheets in 14 completed matches, second only to Greenville Triumph’s Dallas Jaye.  I’m curious to see what everyone thinks about this one:

Over/Under 10.5 clean sheets for Rashid Nuhu in the 2021 regular season

Of course, any good list of props would be incomplete without one that predicts Union Omaha’s season as a whole.  In general, 2 points per match is considered a very, very good season.  In Europe, leagues that have dominant teams will see one or two teams surpass that number, but this number is eclipsed far less often in American leagues due to parity.  For example, in 2019 LAFC set an MLS record winning the Supporters’ Shield with 72 points in 34 matches.  With 28 matches scheduled for 2021, 2 points per match is 56 points.  Let’s knock that down to a more friendly number and ask:

Over/Under 49.5 points for Union Omaha in the 2021 regular season

I’m curious to see everyone’s opinions on all of the above, whether it be through comments, Twitter, any and everything. The most important thing is this: no matter how crazy one’s predictions are, they’ll likely be long forgotten after the roller coaster experience of an entire season. So feel free to go a little crazy with it all!

GUEST COLUMN: Diego Gutierrez Goes Pro

By Owen Godberson

Last Thursday was an eventful day in the college soccer world, as it marked the 22nd edition of the Major League Soccer SuperDraft. Some of the NCAA’s best and brightest punched their tickets to the pros, ranging from number one overall pick Daniel Pereira out of Virginia Tech to Leroy Enzugusi from Drake University finishing the draft at number 86. While many of those drafted may sound familiar to some Omaha and Creighton men’s soccer fans from watching previous opponents, none ring a louder bell than the Magic Man himself, Diego Gutierrez. 

The Ralston native was picked up in the third round of selection by the Portland Timbers, one of two draftees to the City of Roses following their second-round selection of Dawson McCartney of Dartmouth University. Gutierrez followed suit at the number 70 spot, becoming the 46th Creighton player drafted since 1996 and likely the first Bluejay drafted without playing a single competitive minute in blue and white. 

The forward transferred to Creighton from the University of Nebraska-Omaha at the end of the spring semester in 2020, becoming the first player in Dodge Street Derby history to cross the divide between Omaha’s two D1 men’s soccer teams. Gutierrez played 44 games for the Mavericks scoring ten goals and notching 13 assists for the Crimson and Black. He played 79 of a possible 180 minutes in the Dodge Street Derby, having to come off injured in 2019’s hotly contested 2-1 Creighton win. 

The dynamic forward also becomes only the third former Maverick to be drafted, joining Xavier Gomez and Emir Alihodzic who were drafted in 2018 and 2016, respectively. And for many who have had the opportunity to watch him in action, Gutierrez going pro was only a matter of time. 

Diego is already a champion of Omaha and Nebraska soccer, holding the state record for most career goals at the high school level, finding the back of the net 112 times for the Ralston Rams between 2014 and 2017. Adding in his 43 assists in Class B, his high school statistics and legend will likely stand the test of time for years to come. But statistics do not always tell the whole story, and as I have learned over the years of covering the sport, an important aspect of judging a player is the eye test. 

Gutierrez’s style of play could be likened to that of Paris St. Germain and Brazil star, Neymar. A slender and fast paced attacking player who is best used out wide, his skill on the ball is what has wowed fans for years. Showing no fear in taking defenders one on one, his footwork and technical ability allows him to often get the better of his opponents in the attacking third. He has also displayed a keen eye for potential scoring opportunities, making him a dangerous defensive chore for many college backlines. 

The news of his draft selection may come as a disappointment for Union Omaha supporters, as his name has been mentioned a few times as a potential signing. While he certainly does have potential to have a successful career in the top flight, it is well within the realm of possibility for him to still end up as a member of Los Buhos. Whether it come as a loan deal from the Timbers, or as a free agent signing if things don’t work out for him in the Pacific Northwest, it would warm the hearts of many in the Omaha soccer community to see Diego taking the field for his hometown club. 

In the meantime, Omaha fans will still be able to see Gutierrez before departing for Portland, as he plans on finishing the spring season with the Bluejays. Creighton’s schedule was released earlier today as well, with the most notable fixture coming in the confirmation of another Dodge Street Derby matchup, taking place at Caniglia Field on February 27th. 

First Signings of 2021

Well fellow Búhos, we are here, we’ve reached the point of the offseason where new signings are coming in and boy did Jay and the Front Office come out swinging today! The tease last night was just perfect, if you saw the video it was a grainy video of one player assisting another for a goal. Our two new signings are familiar to most of us, having played against them last season, but they both bring some intriguing attributes to this team and they both featured in the video. Let’s shine some light on our two new Owls; Conor Doyle and Greg Hurst.

Conor Doyle

Positions: Midfield/Winger

Prior club: Chattanooga Red Wolves

Let’s start from the top with Conor. He was born in McKinney, TX where he grew up playing youth and high school soccer. He graduated in December 2009 and enrolled at Creighton University as an early enrollee. Yep, that’s right, one of our first new signings is already familiar with Omaha. Connor spent the 2010 season at Creighton appearing 7 times and scoring 3 goals, not a bad return. In his one season with Creighton, Conor helped the team amass a 7-0-0 record.

Conor’s career at Creighton ended there when he signed for Derby County, then in the English Championship. He made 22 appearances for Derby during his time there. During the 2013 season Conor was loaned to DC United in MLS where he stayed permanently until 2015. During his time at DC United he appeared 36 times and scored 4 goals. He left DC for the Colorado Rapids (what up Ben?)[Editor’s note:Hello! I am SO excited about these two!] where he was quickly loaned to the Colorado Switchbacks. Conor spent the 2017 and 2018 season with NASL and NPSL teams before landing at Chattanooga.

Conor has played for Chattanooga in the first two seasons of USL League One. He appeared 40 times for the Red Wolves and scored 2 goals. During his time with Chattanooga he played more of a midfield role. At 29 years of age, Conor brings plenty of experience, both in domestic and foreign leagues. Overall in his professional career Conor has played in 154 matches and has scored 15 goals.

Liam Keating’s Conor Doyle edit

First Impressions: When I saw this news I can’t lie and say I wasn’t pretty excited. Conor Doyle is a name I remember from his brief time at Creighton but remember more from watching USL League One the past two seasons. He brings a wealth of experience with him, including playing at a high level in Europe, and he knows how to find the back of the net. Most importantly, Conor has an Omaha connection and brings some maturity to our locker room. I imagine Conor was brought in to fill one of the central midfield spots and add depth in that area. He hasn’t played up top consistently in a few years so I don’t see him taking that role too often. He also can fill in on either wing to relieve Evan or EVD when they need rest. I can’t wait to see what he does when linked up with Toby, EVD, Evan, JP, and others!

Greg Hurst

Position: Forward

Prior club: Chattanooga Red Wolves

You read that right, both of our new signings are from Chattanooga. If you were excited about Conor Doyle then you should be ecstatic about Greg Hurst. Our newest striker was born and raised in Scotland and even went on trial with Everton when he was younger.

Conor’s professional career started with St. Johnstone in the Scottish Premiership. He spent his first season on loan at his hometown Stirling Albion, only appearing twice. He spent 2015-2018 with St. Johnstone, but only appearing three times. While he didn’t receive much time while in the Scottish Premiership, he most definitely gained experience training against top flight European talent on a daily basis. Put it this way, during his time at St. Johnstone Greg was practicing with Steven MacLean (129 career goals) and on a team that went to the Europa League.

Following those seasons Greg spent the next three seasons on loan from St. Johnstone to Scottish League One and Two clubs. Here he was able to gain match experience by playing 48 times and scoring 12 goals. In January 2019, Greg secured a permanent move to Stenhousemuir in Scottish League Two before moving to Chattanooga in August 2019.

During his career in Chattanooga Greg Hurst appeared 21 times and scored 10 goals, including the one in the tease from the club. Greg was also named to the 2020 USL League One All-First Team! Greg Hurst, while only 23 years old, also brings some good experience with him to Union Omaha.

Liam Keating’s Greg Hurst edit

First impressions: It was going to be a difficult task getting me more excited than announcing Conor Doyle but adding in Greg Hurst along with him was icing on top of the cake. Hurst brings us something we sorely need, a true forward that can lead the line. At 23 he is young enough to keep growing but can also come in and immediately take on the starting forward role. Just imagine Evan on the left, Hurst in the middle, and EVD on the right…no really, just imagine it. [Editor’s note: I AM IMAGINING IT!]

Final Thoughts: Búho Nation, it’s time to get excited! These signings are proof that our club is in this league for the long run. They made roster moves after the season that some questioned, but these signings should show you Jay and company’s intent for the 2021 season. Jay doesn’t want second place (by default) and it looks like he has the backing of ownership. I can’t wait to see what else our club has up their sleeves! In the meantime, rewatch those highlight tapes Liam Keating put together for us, by clicking each player’s name, and bask in the glory of this day!

A brief history of North Carolina FC

USL One announced on January 10 that North Carolina FC will join the league in 2021. The club from Cary, North Carolina, outside of Raleigh brings a strong pedigree to USL One. 

The History

The club was founded in 2006 under the name, Carolina Railhawks. The Railhawks began their inaugural campaign in 2007 in the USL First Division. (Sidebar: USL needs their old logo back.)

The club won their first trophy in 2007 with a win against Charleston Battery to claim the Southern Derby Cup. The Southern Derby Cup consist of teams from the North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia area. Each year comprising of different teams as the clubs change leagues. Most recently, the Charleston Battery, North Carolina FC and Charlotte Independence have taken part. 

NASL

The Railhawks made the move to the newly founded NASL in 2010. In the first year of the league, featuring future MLS teams, Montreal Impact and Vancouver Whitecaps. 

The Railhawks in 2013 may have been the club’s best year. They finished with the most points in the NASL along with reaching the quarterfinal of the US Open Cup. They knocked out the LA Galaxy and Chivas USA before falling to Real Salt Lake, the eventual runners-up. Even though the Railhawks had the most points in the league, they could not reach the coveted Soccer Bowl (best final name ever). 

MLS Bid and Name Change

A new ownership group entered the fold in 2015 as Steve Malik bought the team with ambitions of bringing the Cary club to the MLS.

So, a year after owning the team with these ambitions it is only natural to change the awesome name of Railhawks to the imposing North Carolina FC. Just ask Club de Foot Montreal.

Local news affiliate, WRAL, was quoted saying this about the team’s name change, “North Carolina FC rides the current wave of generalized, location-centric soccer branding MLS apparently prefers, judging by the league’s last five announced expansion clubs: New York City FC, Orlando City SC, Atlanta United FC, Minnesota United FC and Los Angeles FC.”

Nevertheless, the new owner brought fresh ideas, ambition and money to the club.

Malik unveiled a breath taking new 20,000 seat stadium that would stand in downtown Raleigh if the MLS was to choose the club. The renderings were everything a major club would want. 

But in December 2019, David Tepper stepped into the fold as the new Charlotte FC owner. Tepper was able to pay the $325 million expansion fee, the largest ever fee in MLS history.

The North Carolina FC to MLS bid was over. 

A New Manager

In 2018, the club landed one of their best acquisitions to attract the MLS, Dave Sarachan. The former US Men’s National Team caretaker manager after Bruce Arena was fired. 

Sarachan built a strong identity within the club that showed the professionalism of soccer in The Triangle. 

Sarachan left North Carolina FC on January 15. He stated via Twitter : “My ambitions for the future of the club differed from the organization’s recent decision.”

Last Season

North Carolina FC finished the 2020 campaign with 19 points and a third place spot in Group G of the USL Championship. 

Andre Fortune led the club with 6 goals. Fortune was a poacher who scored many of his goals from crosses from his teammates via the cutback or from the penalty spot. 

Also, NCFC club captain, Nazmi Albadawi, earned his 150th appearance on September 10. This is the fourth most matches in the club’s historic history. Albadawi finished with two goals on the season. 

Former Hastings Broncos and Creighton player Akeem Ward was with NCFC last season. The player started in 10 matches scoring only one goal, his first of his professional career in the 1-0 win over Memphis 901 FC. On January 13, Ward joined newly created USL Championship side, Oakland Roots.

One of Our Own

One of our own Owls started his career with the North Carolina outfit. Austin Panchot signed with the club on January 9, 2019 for his first professional contract. Panchot appeared in five games. 

USL One

The move to League one is what Sarachan may have been referring to when he spoke about the difference of ambition between himself and the ownership group. NCFC emphasized the drop to USL One as a “strategic move” for the club. This may refer to a lack of finances within the club during the pandemic season. But, The Athletic’s Jeff Rueter explained that this move comes from the “foreseeable future”. 

So, in 2021 get ready to watch one of America’s most historic clubs visit Werner Park. It is surely going to be fun. 

2021 Free Agents – Forwards

As we draw closer to the start of the season, we’re going to begin seeing news of signings for our beloved Owls. (Editor’s note: we could have already signed new players!) One of the easiest ways to find players with experience in professional soccer is by looking at free agents that are available. If you’re a fan of FIFA or Football Manager, you’ve no doubt looked at Free Agents to fill out your own roster from time to time!

I went through the transfer tracker on both the USL Championship and USL League One websites to formulate a list of 16 free agent forwards. The players discussed in this article are those that either had an option declined or are out of contract. As we know with our own roster changes, this does not mean these players will not end back with the team they left, but it’s fun to speculate on possible signings during a time when we are going to get much news!

For the purpose of keeping things organized, I will discuss each player alphabetically by first name. I will also only focus on three key areas; age, appearances, and goals scored. Both the appearances and goals scored will be for their previous team, some of which will cover more than just the 2020 season.

Brian Wright – Birmingham Legion

Brian Wright spent the 2019 season on loan with Birmingham before becoming a permanent member of their squad for 2020. In those two seasons with the Legion he appeared 42 times and scored 9 goals. Brian is 25 years old and an American meaning he is still young AND won’t take up an international spot, if we need it for another player.

Daniel Jackson – Tormenta FC

Daniel Jackson spent the 2020 season with Tormenta but has years of experience professionally. He has played in both Australia and Finland but at 31 years of age, he may not be what Jay is looking for in a player. Considering our roster went younger after the 2020 season, Daniel doesn’t seem to fit Jay’s mold. Daniel appeared 14 times for Tormenta scoring a single goal.

Devyn Jambga – Tormenta FC

Another Tormenta player on our list but 6 years younger than Daniel Jackson. Devyn appeared 13 times for Tormenta in 2020 and also scored 1 goal. He is a younger player (25 years old) and would be a more attractive signing for that reason. Additionally, he played for the Des Moines Menace for a season before going to Tormenta and is originally from St. Louis, MO.

Fredlin Mompremier – SKC II

Fredlin played a single season for USL Championship SKC II (formally Swope Park Rangers). He appeared 16 times and scored 1 goal. Fredlin is from Haiti and it seems he would require an international spot to be on the roster. At 24 years old, he is still young and looking to develop, something Jay seems to have his eye on. Our success with former Swope/SKC II players also can’t be ignored. #EVD4MVP

Garrett McLaughlin – RGV Toros

Garrett is a 23 year old former MLS draftee. In 2020 he appeared 11 times for RGV but did not manage to score a single goal. He is the youngest player we’ve discussed so far and that alone makes him seem like a good candidate. A change of scenery might just be what Garrett needs.

Jake Keegan – Greenville Triumph

Jake Keegan is likely the first name on this list that you actually recognize. He played the last two seasons for Greenville, appearing 38 times and scoring 14 goals. He is 29 years old but is also a proven scorer and highly rated player in USL League One. Do I actually see him leaving Greenville? No, but that’s the fun of looking at free agents. I would guess Jake signs a new contract with Greenville considering his contributions to their success in the first two seasons.

Jaret Townsend – SKC II

Ah yes, another SKC II product. Jaret appeared 11 times for SKC II and didn’t score a single goal. At 22 years old he is among the youngest players on this list. Coming down a division and playing in League One may help, especially playing for a coach like Jay Mims, who values growth.

Joris Ahilnvi – New Mexico United

Joris is a 25 year old Benin (Africa) international. He appeared 6 times for New Mexico and scored 2 goals. That seems like a pretty good return on a player with so few appearances. Joris appears to have some experience professionally while still being young enough to be developed.

Juan Carlos Obregon Jr. – RGV Toros

The second of our RGV Toros free agents, Juan is 23 years old and appeared for the Toros 17 times over two seasons. He scored 4 goals but was the co-leader on the team with goals scored at 3 in 2020. Looking at the Toros roster, they had several other forwards listed still but I find it hard to believe they would let their joint team leading goal scorer just leave. Don’t be surprised if he ends up back in RGV.

Mayele Malango – NE Revs II

A 23 year old Congolese-Malawian international, Mayele appeared 14 times and scored 1 goal in 2020. Mayele is a young, international player. I don’t recall seeing him play but he fits what Jay has kept on the roster from last season, young and able to be developed.

Pato Botello Faz – Tormenta FC

Pato joined Tormenta after the folding of Lansing Ignite (R.I.P.) after the 2019 season. For Lansing Pato appeared 21 times and scored 7 goals, leading them to second place in the regular season. For Tormenta Pato appeared 10 times without a goal. At 24 years old he seems to fit the same mold I’ve discussed with other players, plus he has League One experience. He is a Mexican international and would take up one of our International spots. Maybe reuniting with Elma would be good for Pato?

Sebastian Elney – NYRB II

Diehard USMNT fans may recognize Sebastian’s name as he has played for both the U18 and U20 USMNT. In two seasons with Red Bulls II he appeared 36 times and scored 7 goals. Sebastian is 23 years old and has youth international experience. That kind of profile is appealing to any team and would bring some excitement to a team that already has tons of hype.

Tucker Stephenson – OKC Energy

Tucker appeared 11 times for OKC in 2020 and scored 1 goal. A 24 year old Kansas City native, Tucker was in the SKC youth system and played, briefly, for SKC II. Moving to Omaha, 3 hours from home, may appeal to Tucker and, at his age, Union Omaha might just be the fit he needs to find his scoring form and to continue developing.

Tunde Akinlosotu – Tormenta FC

The fourth and final Tormenta free agent to appear in this article. Tunde is a 22 year old American who only appeared 1 time for Tormenta. He did not score a goal for them. This may seem like the least exciting prospect but this about the intangibles. He is basically just out of college, has one year of learning to be a pro under his belt, and he is at a position of need. Don’t discount free agents just because they don’t have flashy stats, Tunde could be a good roster filler who develops over the course of a season.

Villyan Bijev – Sacramento Republic

Villyan is the 3rd oldest player on this list but boasts some of the most experience. At 28 years old he has played for Sacramento since 2017, starting as a loanee and becoming a permanent member of the roster in 2018. Villyan appeared 85 times and scored 13 goals for Sacramento. Interestingly he was born in Bulgaria, raised in the United States, and is eligible to play for either international team. I’m not 100% sure that means he wouldn’t take an international spot but having a player with this experience and finding out he isn’t an international spot may be what we’re looking for in 2021.

Will Little – SKC II

Will Little doesn’t even appear on the SKC II roster for 2020 but was listed as his contract having ended on the USL-C website. Will was with SKC II from 2017-2020, in that time he appeared 27 times and did not score a single goal. Will might just be looking for a new home to get himself going.

There you have it, the 16 forwards from USL-C and USL League One that are free agents after the 2020 season. Coming soon our writing team will go more in-depth on Free Agents that played in USL League One in 2020.

Are there any players you’re excited to see come to Omaha, any you would want the team to stay away from? Let us know!

Welcome Fuego!

Tuesday, December 8 was a busy day at the USL offices because Central Valley Fuego FC officially became the newest franchise to join the league.  Planning for a 2022 start, Fuego FC will be located in central San Joaquin Valley, somewhere around Fresno.  This won’t be the Fresno market’s first stint in USL, the former Fresno FC played in the Championship in 2018 and 2019 before ownership put the club on hiatus with a rumored move to California’s Central Coast in Monterey.  The idea that a franchise would be awarded to an ownership group in a market that has already left the USL once seems perplexing at first, but it does make sense that this new franchise would decide to join USL League One instead of the Championship.

You will find many similarities between the Fresno and Omaha markets, including in several specific benchmarks that the USL looks for when evaluating markets for potential League One expansion.  Fresno and Omaha have almost identical population statistics.  Both have metro populations with roughly 1,000,000 people (the upper threshold set by the USL for League One) with city centers making up roughly half of the population, though Fresno is slightly larger in both measurements.  Neither metro has a major professional sports franchise, another element the league finds appealing.  Omaha’s closest major sports teams are almost 200 miles away in Kansas City, while Fresno’s are about 150 miles away in the San Jose metro area (just as an aside, this includes the city of Santa Clara, which is now the home of the 49ers.  As a native Californian and a Niners fan, you have no idea how much this pisses me and a lot of other people off).

Other elements of the athletics makeup of these areas are quite similar.  Both cities have successful Minor League Baseball franchises in the Pacific Coast League (AAA) with average attendance around the lower-half of the league (around 5,800 for Fresno in 2019, roughly 5,000 for Omaha).  College football in the Football Bowl Subdivision is by far the most popular sport in each metro, Fresno State Bulldogs football will average roughly 30,000 fans in a good year, while the Nebraska Cornhuskers routinely average three times that in nearby Lincoln.  So both of these markets are ripe for the picking with a professional sports franchise that’s run properly.

How does the new market stack up to other current League One markets?  Fresno will become the third largest market of all independent teams in the league behind Richmond and Tucson.  It fits more in the top half of the league when considering metro populations, with a group of cities that are large enough to have things like Top Golf, but not quite large enough for a major sports team along with Richmond, Tucson, Omaha and Greenville (comically, Fresno actually doesn’t have a Top Golf but these other cities do.  Please let me know if one is announced in Fresno, I might need to scan my apartment for bugs).  And while they aren’t necessarily a college town, Fresno is home to a state university that plays major college football along with Tucson, Madison and Statesboro.  Fresno, as mentioned before, continues the trend of independent markets that also have minor league baseball teams.  Their inclusion means that League One will continue to have a collection of independent markets where more than 50% have minor league baseball teams (Only Tucson, Madison and Statesboro do not, although Tucson does have an Independent team and Forward Madison’s owners also own a team in the Northwoods League).

Fresno is now the furthest road trip for most USL League one teams instead of Tucson, though it’s still a 700 mile drive from Tucson to Fresno.  However, in a future where the league may continue to weight schedules based on proximity, this will matter.  It’s much different for Tucson to have North Texas as their second closest rival (a little more than 900 miles away) than it is Omaha (almost 1,300 miles away).

Welcome to League One, Fresno!

Who returns for 2021? Recap

Now that Union Omaha has released the names of the players that will and will not be returning, it is time to look back at my own predictions and determine how I did determining who would be returning for the 2021 season. I will review this using a system similar to soccer leagues around the world where points are earned, or dropped, throughout a season. 3 points will be attributed to the correct predictions, 1 point for those I was mixed on, and zero points for those that were incorrect predictions.

To begin with, I made predictions on 24 total players from Union Omaha’s first season. These were all of the players listed on the team’s website and that had a contract through at least the end of the season. Using the system from above, my total possible points for this exercise would be 72 points. Let’s review each position group individually and add up the points. In each group I will list the W/D/L for each group, followed by the points earned. I will have a final record and points total at the end.

The first position group I wrote about were our Forwards or Forward/Midfielders. In that group I made predications on 6 players, so a maximum of 18 points are available from this group. Let’s start with my 3 pointers, just to build up some momentum at the start of the season. I correctly guessed that Austin Panchot, Elma Nfor, and Evan Conway were going to be locks. This already has me at 9 points halfway through my opening group, and has me feeling pretty good, but this is where things get a little hairy for me. The back half of the opening group looks like a team hoping to just grab a point on the road, I predicted that Elvir Ibisevic, Juan Mare, and Christian Molina were mixed on returning. 2 of those 3 did not have their options picked up and the other, Christian, did. That gives me 3 more points. For this group I went 3W/3D/0L and was able to attain 12 points.

The second group I wrote about were those listed as Midfielders. In this group I had 8 players I made predictions on for a maximum of 24 points. This is by far the largest group I reviewed, and therefore the best chance to make up points dropped in the Forwards group. Think of this as the middle part of the season where things start clicking. I correctly predicted 6 out of the 8 players in this group, giving me a whopping 18 points to start this stretch, not bad after 3 straight ‘draws’ to end the first group. Devin Boyce, EVD, JP Scearce, and Toby Otieno are all returning for the midfield in the 2021 season, all of which I listed as locks. I also went out on a limb and said the team would not exercise the option on Sebas Contreras, which I was correct on, and I made a less risky prediction on Manny Lira not returning. The other two players I was mixed on, Tyler David and Xavier Gomez, which earns me an additional 2 points. Neither player had their options picked up for the 2021 season. In the largest group, with the most points available, I did very well picking up another 20 points! This portion of the season has me feeling really good about my predictions. I went 6W/2D/0L and was able to pick up 20 out of a possible 24 points, and feeling like nothing can go wrong.

The third group reviewed were the Defenders. This group had the second most players predicted at 7, giving me a maximum of 21 points possible. This is where we get to the later part of the season. People are tired, predictions get lazier, and the team threw me a curveball. In this group I was able to correctly predict that Daltyn Knutson, Dami Viader, Ferrety Sousa, Illal Osumanu, and Jake Crull were locks to return. Those 5 correct predictions earned me 15 points right off the bat. Unfortunately this group features my first full 3 points dropped of this season. I incorrectly predicted that Luke Hauswirth was a lock to return and his option was not picked up. I was also mixed on whether Nathan Aune, the only player I didn’t list as a lock, would return and listed him as mixed, giving me an additional point picked up. I went 5W/1D/1L and was able to pick up 16 points from this group, but I’m limping into the final stretch after taking my first defeat of the season followed by another draw.

The final group, Goalkeepers, represents the end of the season for me. Hoping to lick my wounds a bit and finish the season strong…which didn’t happen. There are only three players in this group (9 points total) and I split all three evenly. I earned a win, after the defeat and draw in the last group, to start feeling good again. Rashid Nuhu was my only correct prediction in this group, earning 3 points. Unfortunately I struggled to finish the season as strong as I had hoped. I dropped another full three points by incorrectly saying that Sam Howard was a lock to return, with his option not being picked up. I also end the season with a draw, listing Brian Holt as mixed on returning. With my 1W/1D/1L record from this group, I pick up a measly 4 points to end the season.

For the 2020 Who Returns? Season Let’s breakdown how my season went. I started the predictions strong with my first two groups going 9W/5D/0L and picking up 32 points. I only dropped 10 points in that stretch. That accounts for approximately 62% of my total points gained for the season. Great start but, it’s now how you start, it’s how you finish. The back half of the season saw me go 6W/2D/2L and picking up 20 points (the other 38% of my points) but most importantly seeing me drop 10 points as the season ended. Not how you would want to see your team finish after such a fantastic start. While I dropped the same amount of points in the last two groups, it’s how I dropped them, by taking my only two losses of the season in the latter half.

My final record for the 2020 season was 15W/7D/2L for a total of 52 points on the season. I was able to earn 72% of the 72 points total points available for the season. I was able to amass more points than any League One team this season, so maybe the USL will just name me the champion too.

What We Are Thankful For: 2020 Edition

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone in Búho Nation! The team here at Who Gives a Hoot? wanted to share what we are thankful for this year.

Luke Opperman

Most importantly, I am thankful for the young men who put their health and safety on the line to play their all for the fans all season long. UO has provided a lot of entertainment over the course of 2020, so I am thankful for the staff and fans who invested countless hours in the team to provide an unparalleled first season. Finally, I am thankful for the great game of soccer finding a place in the community and metro area that I have come to call home.

Ryan Legrande

This year I am thankful for Union Omaha’s ability to have fans at matches and keeping us all as safe as possible during a global pandemic. I know it wasn’t always easy but I thought they did a fantastic job keeping everyone safe throughout the season.

Liam Keating

As we look back on Union Omaha in 2020, there is only one thing that I can be thankful for: the chance to write, photograph and interview the many different people that make Union Omaha special. 

I am thankful for the guys at WGaH who had never met me before, but trusted some kid that goes to college a couple hundred miles away. They allowed me to write content for their blog without hesitation.

I knew this was going to be a great relationship when Luke Opperman asked me a delicate question on our first phone call together, “Are you 21? I wanna buy you a beer.” I responded with, “Yes”. Then the sound of hooting and laughter from the voices on the other line could be heard. 

It’s this relationship of trust that I am thankful for, but also I’m thankful for the Union Omaha staff who never met me as well. They allowed me to be on the pitch to take photographs and to interview their players. 

This was my very first opportunity to become a professional sports writer. Union Omaha gave me this chance and I was able to watch Evan Conway drill a goal in the closing minutes against North Texas, these are the memories that I will remember forever.

This year has stunk in so many ways, but Union Omaha and their hospitality has been a bright spot. Here’s to more stories and wins in 2021, Happy Thanksgiving!

Jon Ryan

I’m thankful for all the firsts I was able to experience, especially in a year like 2020 has been. I’m thankful for that first home goal. I’m thankful for that first home win, the only moment of 2020 that sent shivers up my spine. I’m thankful for the men and women that made this season possible, one I will not forget. And I’m thankful for the people I’ve met along the way, my new friends in my new home, that I hope to enjoy many more seasons with in the future.

Riley Martin

I am thankful that Union Omaha has arrived in our city. I struggled to get into the soccer culture here in Omaha, until I became an active member with Parliament. It has opened so many doors to be able to share my passion with like minded people: everyone from the Parliament members, to the club has been incredible to be involved with. I am thankful that I have had the opportunity to be apart of something special here in Omaha, and for many more incredible nights in Werner Park with our team! I am also thankful for Evan Conway’s left foot!

Ben Turner

I am thankful for so many things about Union Omaha: the players, the technical staff, the employees in the front office, my fellow fans that I’ve made fast friends with, anyone who put their health and safety at risk so I could enjoy my hometown team play soccer. The list is long and I could write hundreds of words about each person I’ve met through this team.

However, when my head hits the pillow at night, I’m thinking about the goals this team scored. From Evan Conway’s strike against North Texas, then Luke Hauswirth’s strike against Tucson, EVD’s goals that had no celebrations, Sebas’ cheeky PK that almost hit me in the face, that improbable ball that Devin stabbed out of the air, Christian Molina’s celebration against Tucson, JP Scearce’s headers, Elvir’s goal they disallowed, Ferrety and Elma scoring to rescue points on a Friday night in Georgia, Panchot breaking our scoreless streak, Dami’s first goal on our three goal night, and of course, that stoppage time goal to send us to the final. I can see them all when I close my eyes and that should help get me through until we kick off again.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Our thoughts about USL League One Financials

The 2020 USL League One season seemed like a blur, didn’t it?  It flew by as quickly as it seemed to be put together in the early months of this past summer.  This is in no way a criticism of the league: back in June the league faced the same ultimatum as all sports leagues around the world, with the exclusion of the Belarusian Premier League, which is how competition would be able to start or finish in a safe environment? 

Integrity of individual leagues in general was important, sure, but let’s not ignore the gigantic elephant in the room: lots of money was due to be lost. Today I am taking a look at where Union Omaha may have lost money, where they may have done okay, and where they might look to make up for lost revenues.

The economic problem presented by COVID-19 was different for all leagues and teams.  Leagues like the EPL, Bundesliga, La Liga and even MLS (to a lesser extent) knew that while they would be giving up monetary opportunities the moment they resumed playing, but the idea of finishing their seasons without fans in stadia was palatable since media rights checks would clear, softening the blow.  Of course, as was covered months ago, the USL does not have the luxury of TV money that can make up for those losses.  A season without at least some clubs allowing some fans through the gates was out of the question per interviews from league and team executives because the finances wouldn’t allow it to work.

The league doesn’t distribute much to teams from the media rights deal with ESPN, in fact, rumor is that the deal is a net loss for the league, with them even passing some of the costs onto the clubs. Independent clubs are encouraged to find local media deals in their markets, and Union Omaha hasn’t publicly announced whether or not negotiations like that occurred before or during the 2020 season. So all independent USL teams, no matter their level, require revenues from match day operations to stay solvent, with money primarily coming in from ticket sales, merchandise and concessions. 

So what is entailed in operating costs for USL League One Clubs?  Well not a lot of information is publicly available, however some data can be pieced together from various articles written and interviews given.  For example, an unnamed player giving an interview to KFOX out of El Paso during the USLPA negotiations said the average player salary is somewhere between $25,000 and $30,000.  No specific details were given about whether or not this is across the entire USL organization (the professional sides, of course) or specifically for USL Championship. For the sake of this article, let’s assume they are talking about USL-C since this story originates from the El Paso market, home of Championship side El Paso Locomotive.

I believe players in Championship do in fact make higher salaries than players in League One since it’s an increased cost that Union Omaha ownership and executive groups have admitted they will have to account for when deciding whether or not to make the jump anytime in the future. 

Sponsorship revenue is another income stream that dried up worldwide at the start of the pandemic. Entities facing a once-in-a-century situation were understandably reluctant to agree to new outflows of resources. A new team like Union Omaha would have been particularly hard hit as they were likely negotiating numerous critical deals in early March, including for the primary sponsor space on their kit. Ultimately, sponsorship on the kit was given away to CHI Health and Nebraska Medicine. This decision likely saw Union Omaha forfeit potential advertising revenue somewhere in the neighborhood of mid five figures to low six figures.

So like all other independent teams in the USL, Union Omaha are much more dependent on match day revenue than your average professional sports team.  The good news is that Union Omaha had eight straight sellouts. While these were at reduced capacity, this still represents the highest attendance in League One. And while many of those tickets may have been season tickets, folks were paying for parking, beers, and merch every game.

In a season like 2020 where traditional revenue streams are much drier than usual, alternative revenue sources are nice to have.  A common source of revenue in most soccer leagues around the world is selling players.  Seeing a fire sale of players is also typically a sign that your oligarch-owner is about to get into some nasty trouble, but fortunately we won’t have to worry about that problem. 

But will we ever consider the selling of players as an offseason norm with Union Omaha?  We might, but it may take us a couple years to see just how routine it might become.  This was an unknown for supporters across League One during its first offseason, but the verdict seems to be a pleasant surprise about the sale of players.  Three independent clubs sold players to Championship sides last offseason, including a reported $20,000 transfer fee for former Forward Madison goalkeeper Brian Sylvestre.  As discussed above, a transfer fee like that would likely pay close to a player’s entire salary for a future season. 

The offseason economics across the entire USL are certainly out of whack this time around, so we are likely not going to be able to use last year as a measuring stick of what to expect this offseason. 

What can we expect from Union Omaha in the next six months from a financial perspective?  Well, we can expect to hear the announcement of which players will have their second year options exercised by the club soon (all players signed one year contracts with team exercisable second year options).  While this is conjecture, it’s quite possible that small raises are built into these options.  This may not be the norm this year, but also expect news of options being exercised with the sole intent of selling a player before the start of next season.

Based on other industries like podcasting, I’d also anticipate sponsorship dollars to be flowing again. Given the success of the team in year one, I’d think sponsors would be lining up to be a part of what we are building.

While this year might have been rough for the club, Union Omaha was probably better off than most teams in the league. With a hot ticket to sell, a great product on the field, great players under contract, and a coaching staff whose development track record grows by the day, the financial outlook for the club looks good.

2020 USL League 1 Elo Ratings Post Mortem

Once a sports season comes to a close, any good data scientist will tell you that a ratings system needs to be evaluated.  A proper evaluation helps support what decisions, if any, need to be made before the beginning of the next season.  Decisions typically fall in one of these categories:

  • Minor tweaks to formulas, maybe altering coefficients by a hair
  • Moderate tweaks to formulas, such as re-weighting data elements
  • Major changes, maybe even going as far as to discard games that can be considered outliers
  • Throwing everything away and starting over, but not before first hiding in the corner of the room curled up in a ball questioning why you do this and whether or not you’ve just wasted a colossal amount of time and whether or not this is why your friends don’t introduce you at parties

So, let’s start with the basics and review the final Elo ratings for the 2020 season:

  1. North Texas SC: 1616
  2. Greenville Triumph: 1613
  3. Union Omaha: 1551
  4. Forward Madison: 1529
  5. Chattanooga Red Wolves: 1517
  6. FC Tucson: 1499
  7. Richmond Kickers: 1479
  8. South Georgia Tormenta: 1477
  9. New England Revoluion II: 1473
  10. Fort Lauderdale CF: 1426
  11. Orlando City B: 1303

So, the first thing I always look for are noticeable tiers; does it seem like teams grouped themselves into specific tiers, and do those tiers seem logical?  So North Texas and Greenville are in a tier of their own, leaving Union Omaha behind by a fair margin.  The most likely explanation are the results of matches decided by more than one goal:

  • Union Omaha: 1-2 record (1-1 home, 0-1 away)
  • Greenville Triumph: 4-0 record (2-0 home, 2-0 away)
  • North Texas: 3-0 record (1-0 home, 2-0 away)

Don’t forget that North Texas started the season with a higher Elo rating, so Greenville essentially had to play catchup to finish virtually level with them.  Should that have mattered so much?  More on that, later.

You may look at Madison and Richmond as outliers here, and you’d be partially right.  Madison in the end had a season where they sort of kept treading water, but they did win some matches with outrageous scorelines (4-0 home to Tormenta, 3-1 home to OCB, 4-0 away to Revs II).  These results certainly helped Madison’s rating recover from its early season drop.

Richmond, on the other hand appear to deserve some more “respect”.  A fourth place team finishing seventh in the ratings, it can even be argued that they finished the season in a separate tier behind FC Tucson.  So, how can Richmond’s final rating be explained?  Probably in a similar way to their season in general.  The inability to seal the deal, and a little bit of bad luck:

  • Richmond started strong at home, beating Madison, Greenville and Tucson to open their season.  The bad luck there is that all three of these matches happened when their opponents had lower ratings than how they finished their seasons.
  • Richmond couldn’t close out their season at home.  Their last four home games resulted in three losses, including a devastating 4-0 loss at the hands of Revs II.  Remember, losing at home to bad teams can have devastating effects to a team’s rating (Union Omaha had their own Revs II debacle).

So while certain anomalies within these ratings can be defended, ratings like these are created for primarily one reason: to be predictive.  Were these ratings predictive?  I would have liked to have a normal length season’s worth of data (28 matches per team as opposed to 16 for most, 15 for others), but I feel comfortable saying that even with this amount of data I can conclude that these ratings were in fact not very predictive.  Going back to the explainer document from the beginning of the year, you’ll see where part of the calculation process is determining the likelihood a team is to win a specific match (in the event the match doesn’t end in a tie).  This calculation is critical, it needs to be accurate so that ratings fluctuate appropriately. 

Let’s start from a small number of games and work our way up.  The first example is a small sample size, but easy to understand: In the 2020 season, there were six matches where the away team was predicted to win at least 50% of the time (by chance, only one of these matches didn’t involve either OCB at home or Greenville on the road).  In those six matches, the away team finished only 1-3-2 (W-D-L).  A small sample, and with 3 draws, but still I assumed away teams would win more of these games.  In comparison, the 2019 season had 11 such matches, and the away team’s record was 6-2-3. 

Let’s take a look at a larger sample size, with a more narrow approach.  The 2020 season had 29 matches where the home team had somewhere between a 60%-70% chance of winning.  Of those matches that ended in a result, the home team finished with 12 wins and 10 losses, a winning percentage of 54.5% (and an actual winning percentage of 53.4% when including draws).  The 2019 season had 66 such matches, and the home team won 29 while losing 16 for a winning percentage of 64.4% (59.8% actual when including draws).  Clearly, 2019 was much, much more predictive than 2020. 

I would like to have seen more data, but I’m comfortable saying that this version of an Elo rating wasn’t very predictive.  I have not worked out this scenario, but I wonder if the rating would have been more accurate had all teams started this season on a level playing field just like last season.  In general, I would avoid using an Elo system on only a yearly basis because Elo is designed to trend over long periods of time while also allowing you to analyze past matches because those ratings remain static.  For just one season, I’d much rather have a rating system that is fluid and reevaluates matches constantly as more data is entered.  And since I’m the before mentioned nerd that doesn’t get introduced at parties, it’s not crazy to hear that I have in fact been working on such a system parallel with the Elo ratings this season.  What were those results?  I’m still evaluating it, so perhaps you’ll get to read more in the future.  But, at 1,083 words, maybe I should let you enjoy the rest of your day.