USL League One Predictions: Week 16

Last week was just an incredible, topsy-turvy week with the WGaH predictions competition. If that would have been a decision day for us, it would have probably led to violence. But instead, we can marvel at Rich’s comeback and Ben’s ascension, and worry about the following week.

BenJonLiamLukeRichRileyRyan
Chattanooga 2-1 Tormenta1130313
Omaha 1-1 Madison3000000
Richmond 1-1 Fort Lauderdale2000300
Greenville 2-3 Tormenta3000000
North Texas 1-1 Chattanooga0002302
Tucson 4-2 New England0001110
North Carolina 2-4 Toronto1000010
10 pts1 pt3 pts3 pts10 pts3 pts5 pts
Week 15 Results
RecordPoints
Rich30-4947
Ben30-4947
Ryan29-5046
Liam24-5546
Jon31-4845
Riley26-5342
Luke28-5136
Week 15 Standings
BenJonLiamLukeRichRileyRyan
North Carolina FC v. Richmond Kickers (Wednesday, 18:00)0-22-22-30-20-11-11-1
New England Revolution II v. Toronto FC II (Friday, 18:00)3-3 🏝1-01-02-11-01-2 🏝2-0
Chattanooga Red Wolves v. Greenville Triumph (Saturday, 18:00)1-12-11-01-3 🏝1-10-02-1
Forward Madison v. Fort Lauderdale CF (Saturday, 19:00)1-01-02-11-2 🏝1-12-22-0
South Georgia Tormenta v. Richmond Kickers (Saturday, 19:00)2-20-1 🏝1-12-21-12-02-0
FC Tucson v. Union Omaha (Saturday, 21:00)1-1 🏝2-1 🏝1-22-30-10-30-2
Week 16 Predictions

USL League One Ratings: Week 16

This week’s ratings saw an unexpected seismic shift, as well as the introduction of an overall general look that I was expecting we’d see around this time. Here’s a quick look before I expand:

RankTeamRating
1Union Omaha (6-5-1)1.975
2Chattanooga Red Wolves (6-5-1)1.579
3Greenville Triumph (6-4-3)0.958
4Forward Madison (4-5-3)0.793
5FC Tucson (4-4-4)0.507
6Richmond Kickers (4-4-4)0.492
7Toronto FC II (5-4-5)0.396
8North Texas SC (4-3-5)0.102
9Fort Lauderdale CF (5-3-7)-0.074
10New England Revolution II (5-1-7)-0.408
11South Georgia Tormenta (6-1-9)-0.578
12North Carolina FC (1-3-7)-1.049
Week 16 Ratings
Rank ΔTeamResult(s)Rating Δ
7 ↔TorontoW 4-2 @ NC🔼 .269
12 → 11TormentaL 1-2 @ CRW
W 3-2 @ GVL
🔼 .256
6 → 5TucsonW 4-2 v. NE🔼 .212
10 → 9Fort LauderdaleD 1-1 @ RVA🔼 .155
4 ↔MadisonD 1-1 @ OMA🔼 .146
8 ↔North TexasD 1-1 v. CRW🔼 .109
5 → 6RichmondD 1-1 v. FTL🔼 .028
2 ↔ChattanoogaW 2-1 v. TRM
D 1-1 @ NTX
🔽 .019
1 ↔OmahaD 1-1 v. MAD🔽 .152
9 → 10New EnglandL 2-4 @ TUC🔽 .274
11 → 12North CarolinaL 2-4 v. TFC🔽 .384
3 ↔GreenvilleL 2-3 @ GVL🔽 .388
Week 16 Change Summary

So, while it isn’t a change of ranking, the seismic shift is obviously Greenville. We’re officially in the territory now of them being considered a team in the upper-half of the middle tier, they need to get back in the habit of drawing tough games and winning at least 75% of the games their expected to win before they’ll be considered an elite team again. Here is to hoping they can get through their injury issues, because this year’s team has been a fun one to watch when their healthy. Some might argue this is fun to watch, but watching them concede three goals in 19 minutes to Tormenta is like not being able to look at a car accident.

Another thing you’ll notice is that now a full two-thirds of the teams in the league have a rating above zero. This was expected to happen eventually as more draws occur, because teams can’t score a negative rating for a match that ends in a draw. This was slightly delayed because, as you may remember, it took us until the fourteenth game of the season to have our first draw (we’re up to over 27% of matches ending in draws). This is also why we likely have what looks like this large tier of mediocrity.

For my predictive analysis, I’ve been using a method where I look at what proportion each team’s rating is from the range of the best and worst rated teams. While this won’t replace the current rating system, it may very well become a regular inclusion to these articles when I have more time to write these, and we don’t have to worry about pumping these out before midweek games begin. So, maybe almost never!

Data Dump: Madison (Home) (#1)

No words could sum up my feelings for this game as well as the following emoji:  😑

I’ll save the feelings talk for the pod this week, but I think it’s okay to be in your feelings after two straight painful draws, 24 days since we tasted victory, and 38 days since Greg Hurst’s hat-trick (for perspective, we played our first game 87 days ago). We’re still top of the table, but only because everyone else is stumbling harder than us (and we have the best defense in the league). Anyway, let’s dive in.

1) What will it take to get a penalty awarded?

We’ve played 28 matches in club history and have been awarded one penalty. There was an obvious penalty on Elma Nfor in this game that stands out as a potential issue worth talking about, but it is a symptom of a larger issue. Since we are sitting on 28 matches, which is the number of matches every team in the league played in year one, some direct comparisons become available.

In the 2019 USL League One season (season one), there were 43 penalties given in 280 games. This means in 15.4% of season one matches, there was a penalty given, I’m going to call this the ‘penalty rate’ for the league. On average, each team received 4.3 penalties or 1 every 7 matches or so. Check out the table here, but North Texas received 9 and Richmond received 2. Which means in the 28 games in season one every single team received AT LEAST twice as many penalties as we have in the last 28 games.

Last season there were 20 penalties given in 176 games. That’s a 11.4% rate. In the 2021 season there have been 18 penalties given in 154 games. That is a 11.7% rate. Here is a chart of the combined penalties awarded in 2020 and 2021.

ClubPenalties Awarded
Richmond Kickers8
North Texas Soccer Club7
FC Tucson5
Toronto FC II4
South Georgia Tormenta FC4
Greenville Triumph SC2
Fort Lauderdale CF2
Chattanooga Red Wolves SC2
Orlando City B2
Forward Madison FC1
New England Revolution II1
Union Omaha1
North Carolina FC0
2020 + 2021 Penalties Awarded

I’m sure that chart fills your belly with rage. Orlando City B + Toronto FC have been awarded 6x the penalties we have in this timeframe. But, we’re clearly not the only team getting hosed here and penalties awarded don’t necessarily correlate with success. Especially this season, where 3 teams haven’t been awarded penalties: the teams in 1st place, 2nd place, and last place.

I think there are some more interesting questions that can be teased out here (eg. Why do MLS 2 sides get so many penalties?), but I’ll leave that for another time. For your reference here are some other data points from other leagues of note: in USL Championship 17.3% of games had a penalty in 2020; for MLS it was 12.1%, and League One in England was 12.8%.

Given that, the penalty rate in our league is a bit low but not crazy different, in fact in this small sample set the USL Championship seems to be outlier. But since we know we’re seeing a reasonable number of penalties in our league, Union Omaha fans can feel extra unlucky/screwed/aggrieved that we’ve received so few.

2) Are we giving up too many goals or is there a power outage (pun intended)?

While I’m sure all of us in the Omaha metro have had enough power outage talk this week considering this game was one week removed from a storm that caused more power outages in the metro than any other in history, we need to talk about the power outage for the Owls.

We’ve always relied on a balanced attack, just at Luke Opperman how his team-wide beer bet is going, but lately, we’ve been reliant on two guys: Greg Hurst and Devin Boyce. The last time a player not named Greg Hurst or Devin Boyce scored a goal was 31 days ago with Sousa’s goal in Richmond, and the last time a player not named Greg Hurst or Devin Boyce scored at home was the first goal of the season, a full 87 days ago.

Despite giving up just 9 goals on the season, 69.2% of the goals the next best defense has let in, those goals have all been in our last 9 games. We’ve scored 17 goals on the season, but just 12 in the last 9 games. This is likely why we are seeing so many 1:1 draws. (All five of our draws have been 1:1 and in the last 9 games). We’ve scored more than 1 goal 4 times this season, and 2 times in the last 9 games.

With a league leading defense, it is hard to fault the defense for not getting more clean sheets. We need to be scoring more goals as well. But in the immortal words of Jay Mims: “Scoring goals is the hardest thing to do in soccer.”

3) Are we using enough subs?

So I’ve been tracking the number of subs used since the start of the season and have not found much interesting in the data. We’ve used the fully allowed 5 subs a total of 4 times. In a win, a draw, the loss, and a win in that order. In our collection of 1:1 draws we’ve used between 2 and 5 subs for an average of 3.2 subs per draw. See, not much there to draw conclusions from.

We’ve got a very small roster though, with just 19 players fit and with the team currently (assuming Tobias Otenio is not injured). Against Madison, with JP Scearce suspended, we had literally every available player on the field or the bench . This has nothing to do with the point I’m trying to make, but let’s pause a moment to let that sink in.

-pausing….3, 2, 1…-

Okay we’re back. Given the available personnel and makeup of the starting line-up we had one of our strongest benches of the season in my opinion. Given that, I was a bit surprised to see John Murphy Jr getting into the mix but I was super impressed with his play.

John Murphy Jr, all the things

He stepped in quite admirably for Tobias on paper as well.

I was very surprised when Jay made his final substitution in the 81′, bringing on a very game looking EVD, and left two potential offensive subs on the bench in Firmino and Molina. Since I don’t attend post match press conferences, I didn’t get to ask him this directly, and while I’m sure he’d have a satisfactory explanation if I did ask him, he’s not here, so I’m going to express my opinions.

We were the better team in the game. We held Madison to 0.40 xG, the best mark we’ve held an opponent to all season (and less xG than the chance Greg Hurst. almost scored in the 2nd minute). We are at home. I’d like to see us pushing to win the game. You can make all kinds of arguments about the players on the bench vs the players on the field, but both Firmino and Molina would bring fast, fresh legs and are proven clutch performers. In the past, Jay has clearly valued fresh legs over other factors. I was a bit surprised he didn’t do that here as well, but that might just be feelings talking again.

In conclusion, we’ve beaten Madison 2.91 xG to 2.25 xG over the three games we’ve played, yet we’re only 1-1-1 against them having scored 3 goals and given up 3 goals. We are clearly the better team, but they’ve got our number on the field and their fans live rent free in our heads off of it. Therefore it is my sincere wish we only play them one more time this year.

Forward Madison Preview

We here at Who Gives A Hoot Media hope you all had a wonderful bye week.  Whatever it is you did, wherever you went, we hope you were safe and had fun.  Now let’s get back to business.

            Tonight, Union Omaha welcomes Forward Madison into Werner Park for the first time since August 19th, 2020.  Kickoff is slated for 8 PM (CST) and ESPN+ will carry the televised coverage.  At the moment, Union Omaha remains in first place, while Forward Madison fell two places to eighth place after last week’s loss to North Texas SC.  The two clubs have already faced each other twice this season, both matches in Madison, Wisconsin. The first match, back in Week 8, was a 1-0 win for the Flamingos.  The very next week, Union Omaha exacted revenge and left Madison with a 2-1 win.  Overall, the clubs have played one another four times, with each team winning once, losing once, and drawing twice.

            The Flamingos come to Omaha having only earned one win in the months of June and July combined.  In those seven matches, the club let in 12 goals and tallied only one clean sheet.  Sitting in eighth place, Forward Madison is on the outside of the playoffs, so tonight will be a key moment in their attempt to rejuvenate their playoff chances.  A win, and its three points, would launch them up the table and back into the playoffs.  A loss would only create more space between themselves and the teams racing towards November.

            Union Omaha had a bye week last week and hopes to keep their momentum going at the top of the table.  The Owls last match, at home against Chattanooga, ended in a 1-1 draw.  During the match, JP Scearce earned a red card, so he will not be available to for tonight’s match.  With the surplus of options to replace him, Union Omaha shouldn’t lose their midfield integrity and experience.

            Stylistically, both clubs are balanced from the back to the top line, so this will be a very close competition once again.  The most collective goals scored during the previous matches was three and neither team has ever won by more than one goal.  Look for a close scoreline and intense matchups.  Forward Madison will certainly keep the ball for long stretches and look to pick apart Union Omaha.  Their defense has shown the rare ability of absorbing Union Omaha attacks.  The Flamingos are also very strong passers, especially combining their central midfielders with the wings to advance up the field.  Those matchups could very well be the decider for the match.  Union Omaha will have a greater chance of success if they are able to move personnel from side to side, overload their players, limit their touches between passes, and cut off access to their key goal scorer, Jake Keegan.

            Just because tonight’s match is at the end of the work week, doesn’t mean there won’t be a tailgate.  Make sure to join the great crowd of people in the parking lot between 5:30 – 7.  There will be plenty of games, music, food, and drinks for all to enjoy.  The tailgate is free, but Omaha Parliament always accepts donations, as well as volunteering to help set up and/or take down the tents and such.  Everyone is welcome to the tailgate, so bring your friends and prepare to make new friends while you’re enjoying yourself.

USL League One Predictions: Week 15

Luke’s undeterred hatred of Chattanooga, and my totally independent decision to include last weekend’s continental finals has bunched up our table considerably. Let’s take a look at what it actually did:

BenJonLiamLukeRichRileyRyan
New England 1-0 Toronto1001000
Chattanooga 2-2 Tucson0002000
Greenville 0-0 North Carolina0002000
North Texas 4-1 Madison0101111
Brazil 0-1 Argentina0001010
England 1-1 Italy3030000
Total4 pt1 pt3 pts7 pts1 pt2 pts1 pt
Week 14 Results
RecordPoints
Jon30-4244
Liam23-4943
Ryan27-4541
Riley23-4939
Rich26-4637
Ben25-4737
Luke26-4633
Week 14 Standings
BenJonLiamLukeRichRileyRyan
Chattanooga Red Wolves v. South Georgia Tormenta (Wednesday, 18:00)1-03-12-11-1 🏝2-11-02-1
Union Omaha v. Forward Madison (Friday, 20:00)1-1 🏝2-11-02-11-02-03-0
Richmond Kickers v. Fort Lauderdale CF (Saturday, 17:30)2-22-02-13-11-12-12-1
Greenville Triumph v. South Georgia Tormenta (Saturday, 18:00)2-3 🏝1-00-02-01-11-02-0
North Texas SC v. Chattanooga Red Wolves (Saturday, 20:00)2-13-22-12-21-11-2 🏝2-2
FC Tucson v. New England Revolution II (Saturday, 21:00)1-22-20-12-01-02-01-1
North Carolina FC v. Toronto FC II (Sunday, 17:00)1-31-01-01-01-1 🏝0-12-1
Week 15 Predictions

USL League One Ratings: Week 15

We had our lightest schedule by far since I’ve started publishing my ratings. Let’s see how much movement there was with a third of the league sitting idle this past weekend:

RankTeamRating
1Union Omaha (6-4-1)2.127
2Chattanooga Red Wolves (5-4-1)1.598
3Greenville Triumph (6-4-2)1.346
4Forward Madison (4-4-3)0.647
5Richmond Kickers (4-3-4)0.386
6FC Tucson (3-4-4)0.295
7Toronto FC II (4-4-5)0.127
8North Texas SC (4-2-5)-0.007
9New England Revolution II (5-1-6)-0.134
10Fort Lauderdale CF (5-2-7)-0.229
11North Carolina FC (1-3-6)-0.665
12South Georgia Tormenta (5-1-8)-0.834
Week 15 Ratings
Rank ΔTeamResult(s)Rating Δ
10 → 8North TexasW 4-1 v. MAD🔼 .349
12 → 11North CarolinaD 0-0 @ GVL🔼 .277
7 → 6TucsonD 2-2 @ CRW🔼 .250
9 ↔New EnglandW 1-0 v. TFC🔼 .154
8 → 10Fort LauderdaleIdle🔼 .016
5 ↔RichmondIdle🔼 .014
1 ↔OmahaIdle🔼 .001
11 → 12TormentaIdle🔽 .041
3 ↔GreenvilleD 0-0 v. NCFC🔽 .048
2 ↔ChattanoogaD 2-2 v. TUC🔽 .054
6 → 7TorontoL 0-1 @ NE🔽 .139
4 ↔MadisonL 1-4 @ NTX🔽 .443
Week 15 Change Summary

So, poor Tormenta now has the worst rating and they didn’t even play last weekend. A draw in Greenville is an admirable result for North Carolina, and the environment was ripe for a move like this to happen. As I mentioned last week, North Carolina are not only getting more games under their belt as they catch up with the rest of the league, but the results are improving (three results in a row), and all of their losses are by single goals. By contrast, Tormenta have played in six matches decided by more than one goal, and have lost four of them. Tormenta are also struggling with a .500 record at home, and don’t have the away results to pad the gap.

We had an interesting dynamic last weekend, as for the most part the weaker teams in the league had the more favorable results. With the exception of New England beating Toronto at home 1-0, most of the favored teams had poor results. This might explain why Fort Lauderdale was idle, saw their rating increase (even if slightly), but their rating suddenly became the 10th best out of 12, compared to 8th last week. Not only did the teams around Fort Lauderdale have positive results allowing them jump them, but the teams they got those results against were too far ahead to drop down. It’s like the middle of the table kinda shifted up, and Fort Lauderdale were kinda shuffled to the back of it as a result.

The analysis above kinda matches up with what I’ve been noticing the last few weeks, that the middle is still bunching up, and unless any of those teams between 5-10 either go on a run or a drought, that tier is still going to be large and volatile. It would also likely mean an exciting run to the finish once we’re at the final third of the season, and teams are jockeying for playoff position. Do I plan to have predictions for playoff chances? Hell no I ain’t sportsclubstats.com. But I will be back next week, and every week!

USL League One Ratings: Week 14

Last week was an interesting one; multiple matchups where teams highly rated were pitted against each other, and a couple of teams with multiple matches that led to equally poor results. Here are the current USL League One ratings, followed by a summary from the previous week:

RankTeamRating
1Union Omaha (6-4-1)2.126
2Chattanooga Red Wolves (5-3-1)1.652
3Greenville Triumph (6-3-2)1.394
4Forward Madison (4-4-2)1.090
5Richmond Kickers (4-3-4)0.372
6Toronto FC II (4-4-4)0.266
7FC Tucson (3-3-4)0.045
8Fort Lauderdale CF (5-2-7)-0.245
9New England Revolution II (4-1-6)-0.288
10North Texas SC (3-2-5)-0.356
11South Georgia Tormenta (5-1-8)-0.793
12North Carolina FC (1-2-6)-0.942
Week 14 Ratings
Rank ΔTeamResult(s)Rating Δ
12 ↔North CarolinaD 0-0 @ TRM🔼 .448
3 ↔GreenvilleW 3-0 @ NE🔼 .205
9 → 7TucsonW 2-1 v. FTL🔼 .176
2 ↔ChattanoogaD 1-1 @ OMA🔼 .139
7 → 6TorontoW 2-1 @ TRM🔼 .127
4 ↔MadisonW 1-0 v. NE🔼 .096
6 → 5RichmondW 3-2 v. NTX🔼 .092
8 ↔Fort LauderdaleL 1-2 @ TUC🔽 .123
11 ↔TormentaL 1-2 v. TFC
D 0-0 v. NCFC
🔽 .126
10 ↔North TexasL 2-3 v. @ RIC🔽 .196
1 ↔OmahaD 1-1 v. OMA🔽 .206
5 → 9New EnglandL 0-1 @ MAD
L 0-3 v. GVL
🔽 .780
Week 14 Change Summary

So, some very unexpected results based on what transpired last week. North Carolina with the biggest rise after a draw at Tormenta? Omaha with almost the largest drop after drawing their best competition at home? Well, both of these scenarios can basically be explained in the same way: Union Omaha started their season so well, that a draw at home to Chattanooga not only is below average for them, it’s VERY below average for them. The same can be said about NCFC, only in the inverse. We’ll continue looking at Union Omaha as an example. Here are Union Omaha’s top and bottom three rated matches so far this season:

DateOpponentResultRating
05.07.2021@ Fort LauderdaleW 2-04.144
6.06.2021@ Forward MadisonW 2-13.964
05.12.2021@ New England IIW 1-03.084
Union Omaha’s Top 3 Performances
DateOpponentResultRating
06.02.2021@ Toronto FC IID 1-11.455
07.02.2021Chattanooga Red WolvesD 1-11.131
05.26.2021@ Forward MadisonL 0-1-1.346
Union Omaha’s Bottom 3 Performances

Seeing individual game scores visually probably helps a good deal. Here are a couple individual points you can make from it:

  • The draw against Chattanooga is now the match with the lowest rating being counted towards Union Omaha’s average, replacing the away draw against Toronto that was almost 0.35 points higher
  • The match rating of 1.131 is slightly less than 50% of Union Omaha’s overall (average) rating at the beginning of last week

So, as I’ve been saying for the past few weeks, Union Omaha’s performance during their road trip to begin the season is nothing to sneeze at. It was so good that admirable performances at home are considered, as far as these ratings are concerned, as barely treading water, or even as slightly poor. This was bound to happen without some superhuman stretch, but we’ve likely seen the last of these kinds of games having these kinds of affects. The same can be said of North Carolina FC, as I briefly mentioned above. The start to their season was cumulatively so poor, that any semblance of success will probably alter their overall rating significantly, and possibly for the next couple weeks for them since they’ve still only played nine games.

I still plan on publishing weekly updates to these ratings, but I’m thinking we’ve reached the end of the stretch where we can expect seeing significant fluctuation week in and week out, not without some dramatic results like the one in Foxborough last Sunday. I’m interested to see how different the ratings are when you’re comparing them several weeks, or even a month apart. That might be the direction my next set of observations are going. Also, as promised, I’m also tracking exactly how predictive these ratings might be. You may have heard evidence of this during a recent episode of the pod! More to come on that potentially, but until then I hope you enjoy your week of not living and dying by a Union Omaha result as much as I hope to.

USL League One Predictions: Week 14

Wow, there are ways to suck, and there are ways to really suck. The entire team cumulatively blanked nearly half the slate. It would have been more than half had Riley not been bold and predicted Madison with a quick turnaround rematch win against New England, a club that let most of the pod down last week.

BenJonLiamLukeRichRileyRyan
Madison 1-0 New England0000030
Tormenta 1-2 Toronto0000000
Richmond 3-2 North Texas1111111
Tormenta 0-0 North Carolina2000000
Omaha 1-1 Chattanooga3200000
Tucson 2-1 Fort Lauderdale0000000
New England 0-3 Greenville0000000
Total6 pts3 pts1 pt1 pt1 pt4 pts1 pt
Week 13 Results
RecordPoionts
Jon29-3743
Ryan26-4040
Liam22-4440
Riley21-4537
Rich25-4136
Ben23-4333
Luke21-4526
Week 13 Standings
BenJonLiamLukeRichRileyRyan
New England Revolution II v. Toronto FC II (Friday, 18:00)2-01-11-12-11-11-12-2
Chattanooga Red Wolves v. FC Tucson (Saturday, 18:00)3-02-12-01-1 🏝1-02-12-1
Greenville Triumph v. North Carolina FC (Saturday, 18:00)3-02-01-01-1 🏝2-02-02-0
North Texas SC v. Forward Madison (Saturday, 20:00)2-22-11-12-02-11-03-1
Bonus: Brazil v. Argentina (90 min.)2-00-02-01-22-11-20-0
Bonus: England v. Italy (90 min.)1-10-11-10-10-31-0 🏠0-1
Week 14 Predictions

Ref Ruins Rumble with the Red Wolves

To quote author Richard Powers and his introduction to “Galatea 2.2,”: “It was like so, but wasn’t.”  Union Omaha had the lead after 90 minutes, even after playing down a man for 35 minutes.  The three points were within grasp, victory was a mere five minutes of extra time away, and then it happened: in the 90+1st minute, second-half substitute Marky Hernández threw himself into a goal-line scrum and forced the ball over the line and into the goal.  Chattanooga earned the draw, salvaged a point, and maintained a striking distance to the top of the table with two games in hand.

            Prior to Saturday, Chattanooga had never made a trip to Omaha.  The Red Wolves weren’t greeted too kindly, either.  As the team bus pulled up to the stadium, a Parliament of Owls fans gathered to welcome them with smoke bombs and chants.  If the visitors thought this match was business as usual, the welcoming committee made sure to let them know that this was not going to be your regular 90 minutes.  A third-place team visiting the first-place team certainly warrants a meaningful evening.

            The first half seemed to be a completely one-sided affair, but not in the fashion you’re expecting me to describe.  In a largely back-and-forth occasion, the left side of Union Omaha’s field carried most of the labor.  Chattanooga kept the majority of their possession on the same side of the field, as well.  In fact, both teams combined for eight successful dribbles on that side of the field.  What about the other half of the field?  One, which belonged to Union Omaha.  Of those eight successful dribbles, Union Omaha left back Dami Viader owned five of those dribbles.  His contributions to the offensive efforts were valuable and paid off in the 36th minute.

            After earning a corner kick on the right side of the field, Dami Viader lined up for another in-swinger.  Rather than opting for his usual lob into the box, Viader played a short pass to midfielder Conor Doyle, which opened up space for Viader on the flank.  When two Red Wolves defenders quickly applied pressure to Doyle, he returned the ball to an open Viader, who crossed the ball to midfielder JP Scearce while he was waiting at the back door.  Scearce didn’t waste any time in heading the ball to the top of the six-yard box, where forward Greg Hurst was waiting to bury the ball inside the near post.  Chattanooga’s marking was horrendous and they practically handed the goal to Omaha.  The Owls showed great adaptability and recognition of an obvious gap in their defense.  As the teams left the field for halftime, there was an air of content and hope among the 3,880 fans inside Werner Park.  They were all in for a major surprise in the second half.

            Within ten minutes of the second half of the match, the trajectory of the match was thrown upside down by center referee Samantha Martinez.  In the 54th minute, Union Omaha had an opportunity inside Chattanooga’s box, but their goalie, Tim Trilk, was able to win the aerial battle against Union Omaha midfielder JP Scearce.  Both players went to the ground and Martinez had already blown the whistle to preserve Trilk’s safety, which is entirely acceptable.

While Martinez approached the box to award Sceare a yellow card, Chattanooga defender Jason Ramos was communicating strongly while standing over a sitting Scearce.  As Scearce stood up, contact was made between the two players and Ramos threw himself backwards in an exaggerated fashion and laid on his back, mere feet from where Scearce had just been sitting.  After Martinez arrived on the scene, she showed the yellow card to Scearce, turned to check on the safety of Trilk and Ramos, then re-approached Scearce to deliver a red card.  Werner Park was immediately filled with confusion, anger, and taken aback by Martinez’s decision.  Let’s analyze this and see what we can gleam for everything.

            The initial aerial challenge between Scearce and Tilk resulting in a call for Chattanooga comes as no surprise.  Referees try to take care of goalkeepers.  The amount of bodies flying at the goalies while they are focusing on the ball can easily lead to injuries.  When Scearce attempted to win the ball, his body was traveling toward the Tilk.  When a player challenges a goalie for a ball in the air, the player has to make sure they are jumping straight up and down.  Having any lateral movement to the jump dramatically increases the chances of the player receiving a warning or a card.  Prior to this challenge, Scearce had only conceded two fouls.  Martinez must have taken this into consideration upon seeing the battle with Tilk because she wasted no time in reaching for a yellow card.  There’s very little room for dispute in her judgement in this case.  What follows next is where the controversy begins.

            As stated above, while Scearce was sitting on the field, Ramos was standing directly above Scearce, even bending over him for more intimate communication.  This lasted almost two seconds.  Tilk was already standing and approaching, though his intention seems less known.  Maybe he was there to get between Tilk and Scearce, maybe he was there to add his own input to the intimidating situation.  We don’t know and I won’t speculate any further.  What is clear, though, is that Ramos showed no intention of ending his testosterone-and-anger-riddled trash talk.

            There was almost three seconds between Martinez blowing the whistle and Scearce getting to a standing position.  As Martinez approached Ramos and Scearce, she was approaching from a head-on view of the two players, rather than a profile vantage point.  When Ramos threw his body backwards, Martinez likely interpreted the events as a result of retaliation.  Make no mistake about it, Scearce did not stand with enough velocity to make Ramos’s body move in such a manner.  Was there contact between the two of them?  You bet.  Was it intentional contact?  Sure, but it looked more like the typical sly, passive aggressive contact you see in any sport (shoulder bumps, leaning into a player, etc.).  What was Scearce supposed to do:  Log roll to the side until Ramos was out of the way?  Continue sitting on the ground while a player was bent over him and talking to him?  Or ask the player to move?  Scearce looked as though he was simply standing up and his shoulder made contact with Ramos.  It’s kind of difficult to stand up straight and avoid physical contact when a player is bent over you.

Rather than conversing with her Assistant Referee on the sideline to see what she may have seen from her perspective, Martinez skips the discussion and awards a straight red card to Scearce.  Martinez should have recognized the disparity in her perspective and checked with her Assistant Referee.  That raises another issue, though: the Assistant Referee was on the opposite side of the field, close to thirty yards away.  While she may have had a profile view of the interaction, she may not have had a great view of everything.  Nonetheless, it was irresponsible of Martinez to award a hard red to Scearce when she did not have a good line of sight.  If she wasn’t 100% sure of everything that happened, she should not have made the calls she did.

What’s more irresponsible is her complete negligence to talk to Ramos, at the bare minimum.  He was guilty of unsporting behavior, yet did not even receive a yellow card, much less a verbal warning.  I understand that Martinez was distracted by the congregation of Union Omaha players in front of her, but if she was confident enough to issue a hard red card to Scearce, she should have recognized Ramos’s role in the skirmish, as well.  Her failure to do so was a great disservice to the integrity of the match.  Her decisions had a direct impact on the outcome of the match, as Union Omaha played down a man for 35 minutes, plus extra time.  Scearce should not have received a hard red.  Martinez should have separated the players, issued a yellow card to Tilk, attempted to verbally warn the players of further behaviors, and restarted the match with a direct kick for Chattanooga in their own box.  Her interpretation of the events was poor and she deserves a review.  It would also be nice if Video Assistant Referee (VAR) was employed at USL League One matches to give the referees another tool to utilize in their quest for a legitimate defense to their calls, but that’s another story.

Union Omaha did a great job of fending off attacks from Chattanooga and deserve a great deal of credit for their performance after Scearce’s dismissal.  They sat back, absorbed attacks, made clearances, and even found opportunities to create chances on the other side of the field.  Dami Viader had a wonderful strike late in the second half that slammed into the crossbar.  I’m still not sure which was louder: the ball ricocheting off the crossbar, or the crowd reacting to the shot.  Alas, there was no winning shot in the dying moments to save the day.  Instead, it was a Chattanooga goal following a chaotic sequence inside the six-yard box.

The draw keeps Union Omaha in first place, Chattanooga in third, and the space between the clubs in the standings, as well.  Union Omaha has a bye week in Week 14, while Chattanooga welcomes FC Tucson to East Ridge, Tennessee on Saturday, July 10th at 6 PM (CST).

Union Omaha will host Forward Madison on Friday, July 16th at 8 PM (CST).  As usual, the match will air on ESPN+, so if you can’t make it to Werner Park, tune in for another exciting battle for the Owls.  While the Owls are resting, recovering, and preparing for the Flamingos, we’ll continue to give you great content to read.  Keep checking back for more episodes of the podcast and articles.

Data Dump: Chattanooga

If you only looked at the highlights and the data you’d be stunned we got anything but a drubbing from the so-called “Sad Wolves.” If you were, say, chatting with all your friends on an incredibly beautiful night at Werner Park, you’d feel like we lost a very winnable game. I think the truth is somewhere in between, but we can find out if we dive in.

1) The Late Goal

In the 90+1′ we gave up a goal. In club history, 27 matches, this was the third stoppage time goal we’ve conceded (2020: at Tucson, NERevs II). But the first one that changed the outcome of the match.

For the Red Wolves, this season alone, this was the 3rd match they’ve scored in stoppage time to change the outcome of the match and the 5th time they scored after the 80th minute. They rescued a total of 9 points from these games for a full half of their 18 points total on the season. (1 point loss to a draw, 2 points draw to a win).

In all of club history, Union Omaha has rescued at total of 8 points after the 80′. 6 points last season, 2 points this season. If you factor in the 2 points we lost in stoppage time Saturday night. We are +6 all time.

2) Superlative Worsts

Reviewing the numbers after the game, I winced repeatedly. I’ve been tracking about a dozen metrics for each game and we stunk in many of them. Here is a list of the season worst marks we set in those metrics.

MetricAmountPrevious WorstOpponent
Opponent xG2.491.46at Greenville
Our xG0.340.54at Greenville
Crosses Attempted1111Tormenta
Opponents Cross Percentage4527.3at Toronto II
Chances Created56at Madison (#1)
Passing Accuracy65.170.4Tormenta
A little chart I made

There are number of things I don’t track that possibly were relevant too. For instance, I can’t remember an opponent ever hitting the woodwork twice in a game. I have no qualms about calling this our worst offensive performance of the year.

3) But we still got a point!

There is no doubt the red card affected the match. Chattanooga had 8 chances better than our 2nd best chance and 6 of them came after the red card. But we have to give credit to individual brilliance from our guys for scoring a goal.

Jay Mims: credit to him and the staff for drawing up the corner kick routine that we’ve now used successfully twice. (The goal at Toronto was a very similar setup.)

Dami Viader: credit to him for putting a lovely cross and fighting for the league lead in chances created, while keeping his stranglehold on crosses attempted. We stan our Cross King.

JP Scearce: He dug deep and leapt high to put Dami’s cross back into the middle of the box. JP’s expected assist value for the game was 0.15, which was fifth best in the match behind 4 Chattanooga players, even though he provided the only assist in the game.

Greg Hurst: Man, this guy is on fire. That’s 5 goals in the last 3 home games for Greg. And he is finishing tough chances. His xG for the game was 0.26 and the chance he finished was less than 0.20. The data strongly indicates that his finishing skill is high. Goals minus expected goals (G-xG) is a good measure of finishing skill and since the start of 2019 (aka all of League One history) Greg has the 2nd highest mark according to American Soccer Analysis. He is behind only Ronaldo Damus in that category. Greg also ranks 3rd in goals scored all time in League One. (Reminder: we signed him on a free.)

This is the second game we’ve played against a top team in the league that we had less than perfect performance and still got a result (at Greenville). I think this bodes very well for the rest of the season. We can grind out results against good teams when we aren’t at our best, which is what teams that win trophies do. That said, while I love the bad blood that is brewing between these teams I’m not looking forward to playing Chattanooga again.