There is SO much to cover for this match that we don’t need a long rambling intro. Let’s dive in.

1) What does it mean that we lost to the best team in the league?

It will take a few parts to unpack this particular statement, but let’s start with (A) the idea that Chattanooga is the best team in the league. We can talk about things like “the table” or “best defense in the league” but this is #datadump so let’s use data from American Soccer Analysis to do that.

Starting with offense, Chattanooga has scored 28 goals from a xG of 28.38. We’ve scored 21 from an xG of 18.62. On defense, they’ve let in a league 2nd best 19 goals, but xG indicates they should have only let in 14.62. Compare this to our league best 12 goals on a 15.26 xG (we at #datadump stan this defense). Combine these two numbers and you have expected goal difference. Chattanooga’s expected goal difference is a whooping 10.4 xG higher than ours, in reality they are the same.

The fine folks at American Soccer Analysis, believe Chattanooga should have earned 31.25 points this season as opposed to the real 32 points they have earned. Union Omaha has earned 24.56 expected points versus 30 point in real life. So this is where you say: “Ben, xG is not real life,” and I say, “I know, thank goodness.”

The point of all of this is that expected goal data indicates that, if anything, Chattanooga’s results are not as good as their underlying metrics and therefore they have UNDER performed this season. And we’ve over performed our metrics (again, we stan the defense). Since there are no other teams in this discussion, you’ve got to give the edge to Chattanooga being the best team in the league.

Speaking of edge to Chattanooga, (B) over 2 games this season they’ve really had our number. Sure last night we a bizarro lineup, but we some how performed better than when we played them at home. In the metrics I track, we did better than the first match in: time of possession, crosses, opponents crossing accuracy, chances created, opponents chances created, passing accuracy, xG, opponents xG, and, although meaningless, subs used. The only thing that was worse was our crossing accuracy, and, our course goals.

That said if you consider our season series a two legged tie, we lost 3.88 xG to 0.85 xG over the two legs. So, huge moral victory that we only lost 2-1 in real life. But, really big obstacle to the goal of winning a championship this season.

Speaking of winning a championship, let’s talk (C) the long term implications of this loss. SportsClubStats says this loss reduces our average seed in the playoffs by 15.4% from 1.3 to 1.5. There are 12 games left in the regular season. Let’s keep our eyes on the prize and be glad there is a maximum of one game against the Red Wolves standing between us and the championship.

2) Jamie Ponce!

It is a very rare Owls game where I start watching the game knowing any of the topics of #datadump, but given the wild formation in the back, I was able to watch with a couple of things in mind. The first was debutante Jamie Ponce, veteran of the Union Omaha Academy team, who was signed on Thursday and made his first start on Saturday.

From the eye test, I thought he did really well. He made one big mistake and a couple of small mistakes, but overall, incredible for an 18 year old kid none of us were aware of when we woke up Thursday.

I thought that the team worked hard to limit his touches and it shows up in the stats.

A few things stand out, first is how few passes Jamie had, especially compared to Emir. Clearly the plan was to not make him handle the ball a ton. Probably a good call for someone stepping into the bright lights. The second is the low passing accuracy, I noticed at least two balls passed out of bounds, but the big mistake was aggressively stepping up to close down a player that allowed their forward to get loose.

I love the aggression and confidence on display though. Overall, with the exception of a few passes out of bounds, he looked like a totally capable League One center back. Especially of note is the duels won, tackles, clearances and interceptions which was the best of all of our center backs on the night.Whatever happens going forward, he has secured his place in club history with a fantastic performance as our first academy player to start and play.

3) All hail King Tobias the Right Back!

Speaking of impressive defensive performances, how about Tobias deputizing at right back. He led all UO defenders in short passes, duels won, and tackles. His numbers look remarkably similar to a Ferrety performance at right back. Here are some heat maps

Tobias clearly covered more ground while being a bit more defensive, but that may have been a result him covering for Jamie on his professional debut. Either way, a true standout performance on the night for me.

What a wild game. The data indicates they a better team than us right now, but we have time to get healthy, find our best lineup, and beat them again in the playoffs. I can’t wait.

Seems like just a few weeks ago we were playing Tucson at Tucson. Oh wait, we were actually. While I have no problems with an unbalanced schedule based on “proximity,” the rate at which we are facing these opponents is odd. I think it really accentuates the impact of these games by having them so close to each other. Anyway, I’m feeling a little under the weather, so let’s dive in to a short-ish data dump.

1) First half vs. second half.

As my new Twitter friend, Ross Davenport, pointed out during the game, Union Omaha had a ton of possession in the first half. Check out this incredibly inaccurate halftime pic.

So all the other stats are wrong, but I do think the possession numbers are right. Why?

Check out first half (above) heatmap vs second half (below) heatmap.

We ended with the expected 48.1% possession you normally see from a UO win. Clearly, this was because we let Tucson possess the ball in the second half.

2) Strategic lineup choices?

Who knows why Tucson’s coach kept the teams more established stars on the bench until the second half. Was he trying something new? Sending a message? My theory is that he was trying out a new strategy to take points from our beloved Union Omaha.

We are a team that starts very strong and holds on. Additionally, we aren’t very deep defensively, and Jay tends to not make defensive substitutions. Dalytn, Dami, and Ferrety are our leaders in minutes. Ferrety, 3rd place, has played 115 minutes more than Conor Doyle, 4th place.

Also, our team travelled to the desert to play this game. We’ve scored more than 2 goals in 1 game this season, and we’ve scored 1 goal in 9 games. We’re just not the type of team to blow someone out early, so why not try out some new things and bring on Tucson’s most dangerous players to compete with fresh legs against our fatigued backline.

I think that was the idea behind the lineup choices from Tucson. And after they brought on Adams, Calixtro, and Dennis they really gave us the business.

GameFlow also backs this up. After our best chance of the game (the goalmouth scramble) the last quarter of the game is all one way traffic from Tucson.

g+ GameFlow: USL League One Regular Season @FCTucson v @Union_Omaha on August 14, 2021. #FuerzaTucson #UpTheOwls #TUCvOMA pic.twitter.com/HhpHl65Qug

— GameFlow (@GameFlowxPG) August 18, 2021

The results weren’t there for Tucson, but I think the idea was a correct one. We lost the “xG battle” but won the game for only the 2nd time this season (vs Tormenta). I’ll talk next about what we did to counteract this tactic in this game, but I do think we’re vulnerable to quality substitutes brought on for the last 1/3 of the game. We come out steaming, score a goal, go off the boil a little bit, and end the game on the back foot. Further proof we need to be that “two goal team.”

3) Five in the back!

Did it feel like deja vu? We played five in the back again! I hate this strategy in general. Unless this is something done in practice regularly, crunch time it seems like a horrible to break it out. I was however a little relieved that we were doing something to slow down their attack. Looking at the data above, it didn’t really slow the tide of attack from Tucson. But again, hard to argue with the results since we won and kept a clean sheet.

Sorry about the radio silence last week, but when the job you actually get paid for starts draining your energy it’s hard to participate in the job that you don’t get paid for. And putting together these Word Press grids are more cumbersome than you may imagine, so I’ve been dreading trying to write something to bring everybody up to speed. But, here goes nothing:

	Ben	Jon	Liam	Luke	Rich	Riley	Ryan
New England 3-0 North Carolina	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Toronto 2-1 Richmond	0	0	1	0	3	0	0
Tucson 0-2 North Texas	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Greenville 1-3 Tormenta	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Total	1 pt	1 pt	3 pts	0 pts	3 pts	1 pt	0 pts

	Ben	Jon	Liam	Luke	Rich	Riley	Ryan
North Carolina 1-4 Chattanooga	0	1	1	0	0	1	1
Tucson 0-1 Omaha	1	1	1	1	1	–	0
Madison 2-1 Tormenta	1	0	0	0	0	–	0
North Texas 4-0 North Carolina	1	1	1	1	1	–	0
Richmond 2-2 New England	3	3	0	0	0	–	0
Fort Lauderdale 2-0 Greenville	3 (!)	0	0	0	0	–	0
Total	9 pts	6 pts	3 pts	2 pts	2 pts	1 pt	1 pt

	Record	Points
Rich	40-60	69
Ben	40-60	68
Liam	34-66	63
Jon	38-62	56
Ryan	35-65	56
Luke	36-64	49
Riley	31-65	49

	Ben	Jon	Liam	Luke	Rich	Riley	Ryan
Chattanooga Red Wolves v. North Texas SC (1-1)	2-2 🏝	2-1	2-1	1-2	2-1	1-2	2-0
Forward Madison v. Toronto FC II (Wednesday, 19:00)	1-1	1-2	1-2	1-1	1-2	1-0 🏝	1-1
Chattanooga Red Wolves v. Union Omaha (Saturday, 18:00)	1-1	1-2	1-1	0-1	1-1	2-2	1-2
Forward Madison v. North Texas SC (Saturday, 19:00)	1-1	1-0 🏝	0-1	1-1	1-3	0-2	1-1
South Georgia Tormenta v. New England II (Saturday, 19:00)	1-2 🏝	1-1	1-1	2-1	2-1	1-1	2-0
Greenville Triumph v. Richmond Kickers (Sunday, 18:00)	1-1	0-0	1-0 🏝	1-1	1-1	1-2 🏝	0-0
Fort Lauderdale CF v. FC Tucson (Sunday, 18:30)	3-1	2-2	3-0	2-1	2-1	1-1	2-1

Come one, come all!  It’s Week 18 and first-place Union Omaha has a home match on Saturday, August 7^th.  Kick-off is at 7 PM (CST) and ESPN+ will provide a broadcast of the match on their network.  Last week’s match against FC Tucson at Werner Park held 3,722 energetic fans – the second highest in club history.  There are still tickets available for Saturday’s match, so if don’t have a ticket and often find yourself suffering from FOMO (fear of missing out), make sure to get your ticket now. 

Have I not mentioned who the Owls will be playing?  Well, the reason for that is simple: it’s Forward Madison.  If your eyes permanently rolling into the back of your head hasn’t prevented you from hearing, have a friend read the next bit as a favor.

Remember in school when the teacher would assign group projects and you were always stuck with that one kid in class?  You know which one I’m talking about: the connoisseur of Elmer’s Glue, laughed the loudest at their own jokes, and mistook the assigned partnership as a pact to be life-long best friends?  Búhos Nation, I give you Forward Madison.  The good news is that Saturday’s match will be the last time the two clubs play in the Regular Season.  Since Forward Madison find themselves on the outside of the playoff picture, you could also say that this will be the last time the two clubs will play for the rest of the 2021 USL League One Season, period.

Forward Madison returns to Omaha after drawing with Chattanooga last week.  The single point earned from the draw caused them to drop down to 9^th place in the league table.  It’s only been three weeks since the Flamingos last stepped foot in Omaha, earning a 1-1 draw during the occasion.  The neighbors to the north are searching for their first win since June 30^th, but will have a difficult time against Union Omaha.

The Owls are undefeated in their last nine matches, collecting 17 out of a possible 27 points.  Those points elevated the club to the top spot in the league standings, where Union Omaha has stayed since Week 9.  As Saturday’s match approaches, the club boasts some incredible stats at home, as well as on the season.  The Owls are undefeated at home, having never conceded the first goal, only conceding five goals at home all season, and leading every home match at halftime.  In fact, if you want to find the last time the Owls went into halftime on the losing end of the battle, you’d have to look all the way to September 19^th of last year, when the club lost to New England Revolution 2 by a score of 2-0.

Looking at the statistics, this match will come down to two key factors: first half goals and second half defense.  Union Omaha has scored seven goals in the first half of home matches this season.  That’s an impressive feat alone, but when you factor in the statistic that Forward Madison have also let in seven first-half goals on the road this season, things certainly play in Union Omaha’s favor.  Here’s another eerily similar statistic between the two clubs: when looking at all of the first half goals scored by Union Omaha throughout the entire season, the club tends to score their first goal right around the 35^th minute.  Using the same statistic for Forward Madison, except looking at the overall average of first-half goals scored against them, the Flamingos tend to concede their first goal close to the 32^nd minute.  Union Omaha will need to have an insurance policy as they head into the second half.

While the Owls have only conceded five goals at home during the 2021 season, four of those goals came in the second half.  When playing on the road, Forward Madison has scored eight goals in the second half.  Here’s where another weird statistic comes into play.  When playing at home, Union Omaha concedes a second-half goal right around the 68^th minute.  When does Forward Madison, on average, score their second-half goals while on the road?  The 69^th minute.  If Union Omaha is fortunate to find themselves in the lead going into the second half, the team will have to focus on defense and preserving the lead in order to earn three points when the final whistle is blown.  There’s no doubt that the Owls know how to score.  Now it’s time for them to show that they know how to preserve the lead and win, especially in close matches.  I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: in all of the matchups between the two clubs, neither team has ever won by more than one goal.  In fact, only once has either of the clubs scored two goals in a single match: June 6^th of this year, when Union Omaha won 2-1 in Madison, Wisconsin.

Moving away from numbers and more towards personnel, Forward Madison brings a very balanced attack.  The team likes to control possession, and they do so with some of the most accurate passers in the league.  It’s also interesting to watch their midfield play because they condense the middle, suffocate the opposition, gain possession, and then look to advance up the field with the outside backs supporting the midfield on the flanks.  While the team isn’t afraid to attempt crosses into the box, they are more adept at threatening the final third and the penalty area with their thru balls.  The team mostly relies on team leading-scorer Jake Keegan to light up the scoreboard, so suffocating him will be a primary concern for Union Omaha’s defense.  With Keegan pressured heavily and often, the team will have to turn to other scorers, which is exactly what they’ve done against the Owls this season.  In the three previous matchups, the Flamingos scored a total of three goals, all scored by a different player.  Keegan will certainly be a threat, but the defense will have to stay alert for Forward Madison teammates looking to fill the role of the scorer.

            With all of the business tended to above, look forward to having a great time at the match.  Make sure you get to Werner Park early and attend the free tailgate beforehand.  Donations are happily accepted, but you can also volunteer your time to help with setup and take down, as well.  If you’re sitting in your seats and find yourself wishing to be a part of the fun in the berm, contact Parliament to purchase tickets.  There are drums, flags, chants, songs, a trumpeter, and a very intimate vantage point of the match.  After the match, if you long for more entertainment related to Union Omaha, check out the Who Gives A Hoot podcast, read the submitted articles at http://www.wgahmedia.com, and follow Who Gives A Hoot on social media (Twitter: @WGaH_Pod  Instagram: wgahmedia).  Until next time… ¡Viva Búhos!

No need for any fancy narrative this week. Some of us suck, some of us don’t. Evidence below:

	Ben	Jon	Liam	Luke	Rich	Riley	Ryan
Toronto 0-0 Greenville	2	0	0	2	2	0	0
Richmond 1-0 Tucson	0	1	3	1	0	0	0
Chattanooga 1-1 Madison	0	0	0	3	3	0	0
Omaha 1-1 North Texas	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Fort Lauderdale 2-3 North Carolina	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total	5 pts	1 pt	3 pts	6 pts	5 pts	0 pts	0 pts

	Record	Points
Rich	37-53	64
Ben	34-56	58
Liam	28-62	57
Jon	33-57	49
Ryan	31-59	48
Luke	34-56	47
Riley	29-61	47

	Ben	Jon	Liam	Luke	Rich	Riley	Ryan
New England Revolution II v. North Carolina FC (Thursday, 18:00)	2-0	2-1	2-1	2-2	1-1	0-2	1-2
Toronto FC II v. Richmond Kickers (Friday, 15:00)	1-1	1-1	1-0 🏝	1-2	2-1	0-2	2-2
Greenville Triumph v. South Georgia Tormenta (Saturday, 18:00)	3-2	2-1	1-1	1-1	2-1	1-2 🏝	1-1
Union Omaha v. Forward Madison (Saturday, 19:00)	1-1	2-1	1-1	3-1	2-1	3-0	1-0
FC Tucson v. North Texas SC (Saturday, 21:00)	2-2	1-1	0-1 🏝	2-1	2-0	2-1	2-0

The original concept behind Data Dump was that I wanted some data to back up my assumptions about what I’d seen with my eyes. In large part this was because I don’t trust myself to make educated conclusions about what I’d seen. I only mention this because Saturday night was one of those nights. We’ve had a lot of 1:1 draws, this was our 6th, a lot of those felt like losses. To me this one felt different, let’s see why and dive in.

1) What does xG think should have happened?

To me the draw wasn’t so surprising based on the game I watched, I was much more surprised that each team only scored one goal.

g+ GameFlow: USL League One Regular Season @Union_Omaha v @northtexasSC on July 31, 2021. #UpTheOwls #RunItBack #OMAvNTX pic.twitter.com/HfeC44ekmT

— GameFlow (@GameFlowxPG) August 1, 2021

Expected goals back this up. We had 2.31 xG to our opponents 1.45 xG. Each team had 3 chances with more than 0.2 xG. We actually had our highest xG in all 30 matches in club history at 2.31. And our opponents had the 3rd highest xG we’d allowed in club history according to American Soccer Analysis.

We clearly outperformed our opponents, and created better chances for sure, but once again, we drew. I feel much differently about this draw given that we could have given up more goals than we did, but we also could have scored more.

2) Their goal was a bit of fluke

One of the issues with the Berm is you can’t see the goalmouth very well. When Bernard Kamungo came streaking toward our goal having beat Daltyn in the 49′, things looked bad. But then Kamungo lost control of the ball, Dalytn caught up, and I was relieved. I was then very surprised he had scored. Sure he was close to the goal, but he had a defender on him and Rashid had the goal well covered.

Watching the goal again in 1/4 speed, it seems like perhaps Daltyn screened Rashid a bit on the goal.

The numbers back this up to, the chance was decent, but it was about as likely to score as JP’s header in the 90th minute that went straight at the keeper. North Texas certainly looked very likely to score in this game, but this was a fairly unlikely chance to go in.

3) The formation discussion continues.

The league had us listed as a 4-2-3-1 as follows:

Hey, that’s something I advocated for recently! But early in the game, it sure looked like the ol’ 4-4-2 to me. So how did the average positions work out?

Ope, that’s our 4-4-2 again.

Check out this 4-4-2 we threw out against Toronto II.

Oh well, at least it was a highly entertaining match. There will be no Data Dump for the Bellevue game because I’m doubting we’ll have statistics for it. I will be excited to see who Jay rolls out, I’m thinking Malone, Molina, Pedrehidta, Nfor, Panchot all will start, but I’m hoping they are joined by some unfamiliar faces. We need it after all!

Happy Match Day, Búhos fans!  It is Week 17 and tonight, Union Omaha welcome North Texas SC to Werner Stadium for the first time since August 1^st, 2020.  Kickoff is scheduled for 7 PM (CST) and if you aren’t in the stadium to catch the action, tune in to ESPN+ for televised coverage.

            North Texas SC jumps back into the fray after last week’s bye week.  Their last match was at home against Chattanooga.  North Texas was a mere two minutes away from three points, but Red Wolves midfielder Jackson Dietrich leveled the score with a header just before the final whistle.  The draw prevented North Texas from picking up a second win in as many weeks.  The lone point kept the Lone Star club in 11^th place, two wins away from the basement of the league standings.

            Union Omaha looks to continue their favorable form, especially after a well-earned win at FC Tucson last week.  Left back Dami Viader and forward Greg Hurst provided the top-notch goals last week and, in turn, received well-deserved praise from the USL League One community.  The Owls haven’t lost a match since Week 8 of competition, when they lost 1-0 at Forward Madison.  Since that week, Union Omaha has had four wins and four draws, giving the club a two-point lead in the league standings.  This match signifies the halfway mark for the 2021 Union Omaha season, so closing out the first half of the season on a high would be a great way for the club to enter the second half, where the battle for first-round playoff bye will surely get more and more intense.

            These two clubs have only played each other twice, both occurring in the first six weeks of the 2020 season.  In the first meeting, Union Omaha won 1-0 at home, the first home win in competitive play.  The second meeting, in Arlington, Texas, provided much more drama: a 2-2 draw, seven yellow cards, and two red cards.  North Texas SC finished the 2020 season in 3^rd place, just two points behind Union Omaha.  After a long delay between matches, the two clubs will become very familiar with one another as they face off once a month through the end of the regular season: July 31^st in Omaha, August 28^th in Omaha, September 19^th in Arlington, and then the last week of the regular season (October 30^th) in Arlington.

            North Texas SC is an interesting club to research.  On one hand, they have quality results (3-0 win vs Greenville, 1-1 draw vs Chattanooga), but then again, they have some puzzling results (0-0 draw vs FC Tucson, 3-2 loss at Richmond).  One thing you can count on: North Texas SC cannot win on the road.  In 2021, the club has amassed a winless record on the road.  Not even a single draw to their record on the road.  If it’s a road match, it’s a loss.  No other club in the league can match that level of abysmal stats.  The stars at night may be big and bright in Texas, but on the road, there is no light for them.

            After a social media campaign looking to feed your hunger, the fans have spoken!  Stop by the Parliament tailgate for a hot dog tailgate.  The supporters voted on their favorite kind of hot dog, so come to the tailgate, starting at 3:30 PM (CST), to find out what options are available for your satiated desires.  There will also be new merchandise on sale, including drinkware.  As always, there will be plenty of entertainment at the tailgate: games, music, and plenty of fun people.  The tailgate will end at 6 PM and the march into the stadium starts at 6:30 PM.  Enjoy yourselves and Viva Búhos!

Last week’s results around the league allowed for a whole lot of movement. Some of us, like myself, decided to noticeably not take advantage:

	Ben	Jon	Liam	Luke	Rich	Riley	Ryan
North Carolina 4-0 Richmond	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
New England 1-0 Toronto	0	3	3	1	3	0	1
Chattanooga 1-1 Greenville	3	0	0	0	3	2	0
Madison 1-1 Fort Lauderdale	0	0	0	0	3	2	0
Tormenta 2-2 Richmond	3	0	2	3	2	0	0
Tucson 1-2 Omaha	0	0	3	1	1	1	1
Total	6 pts	3 pts	8 pts	5 pts	12 pts	5 pts	2 pts

	Record	Points
Rich	35-50	59
Liam	27-58	54
Ben	32-53	53
Jon	32-53	48
Ryan	31-54	48
Riley	29-56	47
Luke	31-54	41

	Ben	Jon	Liam	Luke	Rich	Riley	Ryan
Toronto FC II v. Greenville Triumph (Friday, 15:00)	2-2	1-2	1-0 🏝	1-1	1-1	1-2	1-2
Richmond Kickers v. FC Tucson (Saturday, 17:30)	1-1	2-1	1-0	2-1	1-1	1-1	1-2 🏝
Chattanooga Red Wolves v. Forward Madison (Saturday, 18:00)	1-0	2-0	2-1	1-1	1-1	2-0	3-1
Union Omaha v. North Texas SC (Saturday, 19:00)	1-1 🏝	2-0	2-0	6-0	2-1	3-0	2-1
Fort Lauderdale CF v. North Carolina FC (Sunday, 18:30)	4-0	2-2	1-1	3-2	2-1	1-1	2-2

So the action this past week was fairly exciting, even if some of the better matches this past week were just really, really interesting ways to get to a draw. That doesn’t do much for us in the ratings department, as you’ll see below:

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Union Omaha (7-5-1)	2.104
2	Chattanooga Red Wolves (6-6-1)	1.533
3	Greenville Triumph (6-5-3)	1.082
4	Forward Madison (4-6-3)	0.824
5	FC Tucson (4-4-5)	0.335
6	Richmond Kickers (4-5-5)	0.254
7	Toronto FC II (5-4-6)	0.253
8	North Texas SC (4-3-5)	0.079
9	Fort Lauderdale CF (5-4-7)	0.058
10	New England Revolution II (6-1-7)	-0.253
11	South Georgia Tormenta (6-2-9)	-0.503
12	North Carolina FC (2-3-7)	-0.777

So I’m not including the weekly ratings change table this week because, amazingly, we saw zero teams change positions as far as ranking. Fort Lauderdale also crossed the zero threshold, giving us nine out of twelve clubs with a positive rating. It’s becoming obvious that so long as a team has more combined wins and draws than losses, they’re more likely to have a positive rating.

This makes some sense, considering that all draws result in a positive match rating. This is something I might take into account when I’m evaluating this rating for next year, but we are way, way too far away from lighting that candle. The reason why I may want to to adjust this in the future is because, of course, not all draws should be considered equal. In my opinion, I don’t think any team had a draw that should be considered a “negative” result this past week (maybe Madison), but I think it’s entirely logical to think that Greenville’s draw at home to North Carolina earlier this season was considered a negative result for them.

So, another way to interpret these ratings are with my before mentioned proportional analysis. By rating everybody on a scale that constantly fluctuates depending on what the highest and lowest ratings are, we can reorganize these ratings so that they’re displayed as if they’re calculated with some sort of “zero-sum” method.

In the predictability analysis I’m privately tracking (which has it’s positives and negatives at the moment), I only care about what a team’s rating is in proportion to the best team. In order to calculate this, I add the absolute value of the lowest rating to all twelve teams. This makes the lowest rating zero, and the highest rating can now be used as the denominator to calculate all percentages. Think of it as considering the highest rated team as the absolute best team (100%), the lowest rated team as the absolute worst team (0%), and every other team is graded somewhere in the middle. If you’d rather have a numeric scale similar to the ratings themselves, where 0 is the midpoint, you’d simply take the extra step of subtracting each adjusted rating by half of the highest rating. This can be read as:

(R + ab(L)) – ((H + ab(L)) / 2)

In the above formula, R is the team’s rating, ab(L) is the absolute value of the lowest rated team, and H is the highest rated team. Here is Greenville’s adjusted rating using this method (current rating: 1.082):

(1.082 + ab(-.777)) – ((2.104 + ab(-.777)) / 2) = 0.4185

Here’s the entire table using this calculation:

Team	Adjusted Rating
Omaha	1.4405
Chattanooga	0.8695
Greenville	0.4185
Madison	0.1605
Tucson	-0.3285
Richmond	-0.4095
Toronto	-0.4105
North Texas	-0.5845
Fort Lauderdale	-0.6055
New England	-0.9165
South Georgia	-1.1665
North Carolina	-1.4405

This might be unnecessary, but this observation makes it a little easier to spot the noticeable gaps at the top and bottom of the table. It also might support rethinking at what point do we start seeing teams as being mediocre. Madison’s rating is the closest rating to zero here, and being a team that has only one more win than they have losses, a whole bunch of draws, and a goal difference of -1, this view might actually be a more accurate representation of how they stand.

We have a few matchups this week that might give us some hints as to which teams are ready for the midseason grind. We may have the answer to that for a couple of teams, but the jury is still out for many. We’ll see how these ratings adjust from that next week.

Well, I have to admit, I liked that more than other games in the last month. Is that because I watched from home and therefore gave the game my undivided attention? No, it’s because we won and scored two goals. Duh, let’s dive in.

1) Soccer is a game with a lot of randomness

Game A: Owls xG: 1.21, best chance not resulting in a goal: 0.44, opponent xG: 0.40
Game B: Owls xG: 1.22, best chance not resulting in a goal: 0.41, opponent xG: 0.40

You’d want to guess that these games had the same result. We all WISH these games had the same result. But, they didn’t. Game A is our draw on 7/16/2021 against Madison at home. Game B is our win over Tucson on 7/24/2021.

What’s even crazier to me is that when measured by opponent’s xG those are two of our three best games ever. Number 1 on the list? Our first game ever, aka, The “Gary Green’s Instagram” game.

2) What formation did we line up in?

Let’s review what we know.
A) Jay only plays a 4-4-2.
B) The announcer and pre-game graphic said we were playing a 4-1-4-1.
C) The game summary says we played a 4-2-3-1.
D) When Blake “Ba-Lock-A Muh-Loan” Malone game on, he clearly indicated with his hands we were going to play a 5-4-1.

Let’s start with #D. I definitely saw us play a 5-4-1 with Blake on the field.

So how about the rest of the game?

Here is how the league has us lined up.

So I’m not going to lie, I love that formation for that lineup. Maybe not the best lineup we have if everyone is healthy, but that’s not our life at the moment. (Brief aside on health, EVD looked like himself again and he was responsible for our big chance early in the game, before going down. I’m hoping that it is not as serious as it looked.) But what did we actually play?

Oh wow. We actually sort of a played a 4-2-3-1!

Given that we ended up winning when we’ve been drawing games, I’d like to see this formation again.

3) *very Owen Godberson voice* DAMIIIIIIIIIA VIAAADER

What a goal. Let’s watch it again real quick. (Goal is at 0:42)

First off, good for Dami for scoring this screamer. You could tell he loved it and it was a much needed change of pace from the Greg and Devin show (although they were back on their BS shortly after).

Second, he does more than score for us and he is having a better season than last year.
2020: 13 games, 1172 minutes, 1 goal, 1 assist, 1.05 xG, 2.33 xA, 21 Key Passes
2021: 13 games, 1272 minutes, 2 goals, 2 assists, 0.79 xG, 3.22 xA, 32 Key Passes

Third, he’s one of the best players in the league by many critical metrics. He is tied for first on Key Passes and is second in Crosses. His chief rival in these categories has 100 more minutes of game time than Dami does. Oh and he is the starting left back for the best defense in the league (see endnote). There are no other defenders in the top 5 for these categories.

He is tied for 2nd in goals and 2nd in assists for defenders. His xG+xA mark tops the league for defenders as well. Even though the league values duels won extremely highly for Team of the Week honors, it is not sortable in a public database that I am aware of, so I will not be comparing his defensive stats. It is also worth noting he has not been carded on the year. Did I mention that he did all of this while being the starting left back for the best defense in the league.

The only remaining question is: he is the MVP in addition to the Defender of the Year?

Brief endnote: We are the best defense in the league by the only metric that matters, goals allowed. We’ve let in 10. Sitting in a three-way tie for 2nd on 16 goals allowed is: Greenville, Chattanooga, and Madison. Madison has scored 6 fewer goals than Greenville and Chattanooga, which may help explain why they are in 8th place not somewhere between 2nd and 4th.