North Texas SC Preview

            It’s Week 24, Búhos fans!  As each week passes, the next matches get bigger and bigger.  Think about Cardi B’s cousin’s friend’s current dilemma, then think even bigger.  These matches mean a lot.  By the way, don’t google that tweet while on a work computer.  You’ve been warned.  This week, Union Omaha finds itself playing against a familiar foe in North Texas SC.  As the Owls travel down to Arlington, Texas, they look to continue riding their current wave of positive results.  When the clubs take the field at Globe Life Park, they’ll be meeting for the second time in three weeks.  Kickoff is scheduled for 6 PM (CST) on Sunday and, as usual, ESPN+ will provide the live broadcast.

            Whereas Union Omaha comes into this contest riding high, North Texas SC seems to have lost its way.  The FC Dallas developmental club has lost two in a row, is winless in their last six matches, and faces a Union Omaha squad that has managed better results on the road than at home this season.  Last week, North Texas visited South Georgia Tormenta and returned home empty-handed, much like the week before, as well.  North Texas team manager, Eric Quill, is certainly working overtime to make sure his squad finishes the season on a positive note.  North Texas will need to address their scoring woes on Sunday night because in their last five matches, they’ve been outscored 2-5.  Union Omaha will be focused on expanding that goal differential before the final whistle blows.

            On the other end of the field, Union Omaha fixed their scoring issue and found results to keep up with Chattanooga at the top of the table.  The Owls and Chattanooga Red Wolves are currently even on points, but Union Omaha has two games in hand.  Advantage: Union Omaha.  The Owls have played 11 away matches entering Sunday night’s clash and only lost two of those matches, both by a single goal.  Union Omaha’s manager, Jay Mims, displayed a great sense of relief with the home win over Toronto FC II last week.  In a social media post by the club, Mims was seen repeatedly pumping his fists, saying the three points were “huge,” and expressed many thanks to all of the fans who made it to Werner Park for the match.

            Going back to last season, Union Omaha and North Texas SC have played each other four times.  Union Omaha has one win in the series and the rest of the results were draws.  The total amount of goals scored in those four matches comes out to a 4-3 advantage for Union Omaha.  When the two clubs meet face-to-face, both sides are more likely to earn yellow and red cards, instead of goals.  In the four matches already discussed, there have been a total of 20 yellow cards and 2 straight red cards.  With North Texas SC sitting in 8th Place with 26 points, they are only one point away from the playoff cutoff point right now.  A win would place them in a much more comfortable position to sneak into the playoffs.  Getting into postseason play may come down to the very last week of the regular season, which coincidentally, is another match between Union Omaha and North Texas SC in Arlington.  It’s going to be a very interesting series of weeks to finish the season.

            It’s difficult to really dial in on what differentiates these two clubs.  They’re both fast, very physical, and work hard to disrupt their opponent early in their attack.  North Texas will win the possession battle and will probably have higher-quality passes, too.  The true decider could easily come down to two areas: duels won and movement off the ball.  With as physical and aggressive as North Texas SC is, Union Omaha will have their work cut out for them to protect their ground and secure the ball after the challenge.  There will be a lot of duels, both on the ground and in the air, so the Owls will need to stay strong and use their opponent’s center of gravity against themselves.  Movement off the ball will be crucial as well, just as fans saw from the Owls last week against Toronto FC II.  When Devin Boyce and Greg Hurst combined for that slick first goal of the match, it wouldn’t have happened without Boyce’s continued run after passing to Hurst.  It takes a lot of situational awareness to make those decisions, but Union Omaha has shown that same ability in countless other instances.  There’s an intelligence and chemistry among the squad at the moment, so hopefully they’ll continue to take advantage of their run of recent form.

            Alright, Búhos Nation, we need to talk some business.  As you may or may not know, Union Omaha will be playing their next home match, against FC Tucson, inside Creighton University’s own Morrison Stadium on Saturday, September 18th at 7 PM (CST).  I haven’t heard any indication of the match being a sellout, so we need you all to speak with your friends, family members, co-workers, dog walker, mail deliverer, etc.  This is a huge opportunity to show the club what it may look like to have their matches in a soccer-specific stadium, in a downtown location, and supported by a larger-than-usual supporter base.  Last week’s attendance was the lowest of the season, so let’s make sure next week’s match is the biggest in history.  FC Tucson is a quality club with a strong possibility of making the playoffs.  Maybe the two clubs will meet again in November.  Who knows?  In case that does happen, let’s make Morrison Stadium an imposing atmosphere and take them off their game.  We know you love and support the Owls, so gather your crew, purchase your tickets, come to the pregame meetup at the Session Room, and bring the energy to Morrison Stadium!  ¡Viva Búhos!

Data Dump: Toronto FC II

Well that was a fun night a Werner Park! There is a lot to digest in this one so let’s dive in.

1) JP Scearce scores his first 2021 goal (FINALLY)

Let’s start with a grim stat. For the 4th time in the last 5 home games, we scored a 1st half goal and gave up a 2nd half goal. But this time, the only time out of those 4 games, we scored a second; thank you JP!

That finish tho
This is just mean Luke.

So yes, this was an “important” goal for the team, and it must have felt great for JP to finally get his first on the year. But at #datadump we love it because it removed JP from his spot of distinction on the “bad” list.

For me, the “bad” list is players with the lowest number on the G-xG list. JP was first in the league for 2021 on this metric and 7th all time in league history. He is currently 9th on the season and 32nd overall in league history.

JP has had terrible luck this year when it comes to scoring, but not for lack of trying. A few months ago, I asked my friends at the Media Empire if there was a place I could bet on individual goal scorers in League One, because we all knew this goal was coming. I was told it wasn’t a thing and therefore missed out on a massive payday.

2) 5 in the back

There was a little chatter online about us playing five in the back. Obviously, these folks missed the games at Tucson and my coverage of the phenomena. But, I did not, so I grabbed this pic of us playing 5 at the back for the last 10 minutes of the match.

Original photography by me, Ben Turner.
It is also backed up here by average positions.

3) Goals at the Berm End

This one is for Luke, Andrew, AND Sean who all asked me about this.

So, this was the week to do this. In part, because we’ve played 8 games at home in 2021, same as we did in 2020, in part because this game was the 3rd time I was asked for the data. So I did the research, and…it’s actually pretty interesting.

Findings

  • We’ve attacked the Berm End in the first half in 11 of 16 matches.
  • There have been 32 goals scored at Werner Park in 16 matches.
  • 21 have been scored by Union Omaha (11 by our opponents).
  • 12 first half goals, 9 second half goals for Union Omaha. 4 first half goals, 7 second half goals for our opponents. (I don’t like this stat).
  • 16 first half and 16 second half goals.
  • 16 goals have been scored at the Berm End. 10 by Union Omaha, 6 by our opponents.

No real advantages, end of story right? Not so fast, here is where it gets interesting.

  • 2020: 5 of 14 goals were scored at the Berm End, 3 of the 9 goals UO scored were at the Berm End.
  • 2021: 11 of 18 goals were scored at the Berm End, 7 of the 12 goals UO scored were at the Berm End.

What does it mean?! I’m always going to answer: soccer is random. But I think there is something in there. I’d love to hear what conclusions you draw from this. I’m going to keep tracking and will update again at the end of the year.

Toronto FC II Preview

            Welcome to Week 23, Búhos fans.  Today is a busy day for the USL League One, as every club will be in action.  If that seems at all unfamiliar, you’re right to feel that way.  This is the first time this season that the entire league will be in action on the same day.  With that being said, we all know which match takes precedence – Union Omaha versus Toronto FC II.  This raises another “first” worthy of mentioning: this evening, Toronto FC II will be taking in the sights and sounds of Werner Park for the first time ever.  ESPN+ will broadcast the live match at 7 PM (CST).

            Looking at head-to-head statistics between the two clubs is a bit difficult because they’ve only faced off once in history.  Due to logistical complications brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, the club was forced into withdrawing from the 2020 USL League One season.  When the two did compete earlier this season, Toronto FC II was taking up temporary residence in their home (Grande Sports World complex in Casa Grande, Arizona) away from home (Osceola Heritage Park in Kissimmee, Florida) away from home (BMO training grounds in Toronto, Ontario).  The match ended in a 1-1 draw.

            The Arizona heat took a toll on both sides, but the match still provided plenty of entertainment.  For the most part, the clubs were fairly equal in their statistics.  On paper, the biggest difference was the number of corner kicks.  While Toronto FC II had three corner kicks, Union Omaha had nine.  While watching the two teams play, another area of play that jumped out to me was the fight for possession.  Toronto FC II ended up with more possession by the final whistle, but Union Omaha disrupted and pressured before the Young Reds were able to settle into any sense of comfort with the ball.

            Looking at the current standings, Toronto FC II sits in 10th place with 25 points, only a single point away from playoff contention.  The Young Reds have only won twice on the road this season, conceding 18 goals in 11 away matches.  The club is currently experiencing a goal-producing issue.  In the month of July, Toronto only had one match in which they were able to find the back of the net.  While they were able to score in August, the Young Reds haven’t tallied a goal since August 18th, almost a month ago.

            Whereas Toronto FC II finds themselves in a rut, Union Omaha exorcised their goalless demons last week by defeating North Carolina FC 3-0 in Cary, North Carolina.  Left back Damiá Viader stole the night with a pair of high-quality goals.  Forward Ricardo Rivera, playing in his third match with Union Omaha, scored his first goal.  The team’s performance was confidence-boosting, especially since there’s less than two months left in the regular season and Union Omaha is looking to lock up a first-round bye in the playoffs.

            Stylistically, this is a very good matchup.  Toronto FC II will punish any opponent if given the freedom of possession.  Don’t fret too much about that, though.  Everybody knows Union Omaha will press high, press early, and will be relentless in their pursuit to gain possession.  If they can’t gain possession, they’ll take comfort in knowing that they’ve disrupted Toronto’s game plan.  As we’ve seen, both this season and last, most of the clubs in League One do not handle chaos well.  Union Omaha bathes in it.

            Another facet of Toronto’s style that will make tonight’s match interesting is how they move up the field.  In all honesty, it’s similar to Forward Madison.  They like to create triangles on the flanks, play the one-touch passes inside and out, and overwhelm defenses with overlaps from the outside backs.  The incorporation of the central midfielders to these triangles keeps defenses guessing whether or not they’ll simply turn inside and look to switch the play, or force the ball back outside and move up the sidelines.  While this can be threatening, their central midfielders all too often opt to play the ball back outside.  More to the point, they are less likely to look forward for through-passes and utilizing their forwards.  If Union Omaha can overwhelm the midfield and disrupt the ball movement, they’ll be successful in making Toronto a one-trick pony with their long-ball switches.

            There’s less than two months left in the regular season, which means your chances to get out to Werner Park are dropping with each passing week.  Union Omaha matches are a great experience, only enhanced by the tremendous tailgates put on by the Parliament.  When you make it out to Werner Park again, make sure to get there early for free food, drinks, games, and music.  There’s a merchandise booth set up for anyone looking for Parliament clothing, stickers, and scarves.  You can make a donation to the supporters group, too.  Any amount will be happily accepted.

            Once the match is over, make sure to check Who Gives A Hoot Media for the latest episode of the podcast, data dumps, prediction threads, and other articles.  If you still aren’t satisfied with your Union Omaha coverage, you can follow Who Gives A Hoot and Parliament on social media for even more content.  Have a wonderful time watching the match tonight, wherever you may be.  Until next time…¡Viva Búhos!

USL League One Predictions: Week 23

So, nobody told me last week was the week to actually, you know, be accurate. This was my stupid idea, so I’m getting what I deserve at this point.

BenJonLiamLukeRichRileyRyan
New England 1-2 Tucson0030013
Greenville 3-0 Toronto0011000
Fort Lauderdale 0-0 Chattanooga2002222
North Carolina 0-3 Omaha0113111
North Texas 1-1 Tucson0000020
New England 1-1 Tormenta0000300
Total2 pts1 pt5 pts6 pts6 pts6 pts6 pts
Week 22 Results
RecordPoints
Ben46-7380
Rich45-7478
Liam38-8171
Ryan42-7869
Luke44-7564
Jon42-7763
Riley39-7562
Week 22 Standings
BenJonLiamLukeRichRileyRyan
Chattanooga Red Wolves v. North Texas SC (Wednesday, 1-0)1-10-1 🏝1-11-11-11-11-1
Greenville Triumph v. Chattanooga Red Wolves (Saturday, 18:00)1-11-10-2 🏝1-11-02-02-2
North Carolina FC v. New England Revolution II (Saturday, 18:00)1-22-31-21-20-21-1 🏝0-1
Forward Madison v. Richmond Kickers (Saturday, 19:00)1-11-21-10-10-10-20-0
South Georgia Tormenta v. North Texas SC (Saturday, 19:00)0-30-21-10-21-12-1 🏝0-2
Union Omaha v. Toronto FC II (Saturday, 19:00)2-02-02-03-02-12-12-0
FC Tucson v. Fort Lauderdale (Saturday, 21:00)3-12-02-32-11-00-22-2 🏝
Week 23 Predictions

Data Dump: at NCFC

Well, that was a delightful introduction to NCFC! We’ll talk more about the numbers in a bit, but first I want to say that I throughly enjoyed watching that game. It was a combination of factors for sure. A large part of it was the delightful commentary from the local commentary team of Austin da Luz and Dean Linke along with quality camera work and high resolution images. Both commentators have a long standing history with the club and region gave gave a glimpse into the rich history of the club and soccer in the region. Sure there were quaint mispronunciation of a bunch of our players names but that happens at it happens at Werner Park too! Only the most ironhearted would not have appreciated the shoutouts to our players with NCFC connections and their parents. Now, it was clear from the surprise shown to things like, Nuhu’s kicking ability, that they hadn’t watched much of us, but I had watched none of them so who am I to judge. But best of all, to finally hear someone associated with League One give unlimited praise to our team had to be salve to even the most jaded member of Buho Nation. It was neat. The result didn’t hurt either, so let’s dive in.

1) Streak breakers!

Thank goodness, I don’t have to update any of my scoreless streak data from last week. The streak ended 7 minutes into the game at 380 minutes. Let’s not need to revisit this information anytime soon. Dami’s goal was brilliant and Evan Conway got his first ever game winning assist!

Also let’s not dismiss Austin Panchot as our good luck talisman in this endeavor. In two of the three games he has started for the club we’ve broken 300+ minute scoring draughts. He even scored the draught breaker last year.

But that wasn’t the only streak that was ended on the night. We got a penalty!!

I thought this was awfully harsh penalty for NCFC to receive. Perhaps this is because the more typical League One experience is Ricky having his jersey pulled, impeding play, while running through the box with no call being made. But on the balance of play this year we deserved at least ONE penalty so, glad we got one. I also loved that their goalkeeper got a yellow for messing up the area around the penalty spot.

We went 29 games without a penalty being called. 382 days are a long time, but Evan and Dami once again combined to snap a streak that had gone on too long.

2) DAMI WATCH

There is still 35.7% of the season remaining, but with a performance like that, Dami leaves no doubt in my mind that he is the USL League One defender of the year. Let’s review the case:

CategoryDamiLeague RankTeam RankDefender Rank
Goals41321
Assists22244
xG+xA5.441922
Crosses130211
Chances Created41211
All team and Defender ranks from American Soccer Analysis, rest for League website

Oh also, he plays left back for the best defense in the league. Are you not entertained?

3) Teams we haven’t beaten

With our victory against NCFC, our list of teams that have played in USL League One (when we were in the league anyway (RIP Lansing)), that we haven’t beaten is down to three: Chattanooga (0-2-1), Richmond (0-1-1), and Toronto FC (0-0-1). I’m hopeful we can wrap this list up before the end of the season. That would, of course, involve us beating Chattanooga in the playoffs, but that kind of seems necessary to win the title anyway. Our first shot to get this list to zero, is Saturday at TFC II. See you there!

North Carolina FC Preview

            Good morning and happy match day, Búhos fans!  It’s been a while since I was last able to submit something for your reading pleasure, but I am back and ready to get you excited for tonight’s match between Union Omaha and North Carolina FC.  Believe it or not, these two clubs have never played against one another, so tonight’s match will have an extra dose of intrigue.  The match will take place in Sahlen’s Stadium at WakeMed Soccer Park in Cary, North Carolina. ESPN+ will broadcast the match, which kicks off at 6 PM (CST).

            North Carolina FC hasn’t had a desirable season in its first season of USL League One action, especially after spending the previous three seasons in the USL Championship.  Through the first eleven weeks of the USL League One season, NCFC had only earned a single point toward the standings.  The club had to wait until Week 12 to earn its first victory, a 2-1 home victory against the Richmond Kickers.  Since Week 12, the club has only lost four matches, while winning three matches, as well as drawing three matches.

Even after looking over the results since Week 12, it’s hard to pin a true identity to the club.  On the surface, they have a Jekyll-and-Hyde quality to their results, but when you dig a bit deeper, you start to see what truly makes this club tick: youth development.  When the club dropped from the USL Championship to USL League One, the club even cited focused development of youth in the region as their new, primary focus.  Staying true to their new mission, of the 28 players on their current roster, 22 have earned starts with the club and every player has seen the field in at least one match.  Yesterday, “Mr. NCFC” Nazmi Albadawi announced that his last match would be played on September 11th.  The long-time club player and 2021 team captain decided to hang up his cleats to take a full-time job in Raleigh, North Carolina.  In his retirement, Naz will also take on a coaching role within the Academy.  The club has developed a culture of fostering player growth from within and key players in the success of the club have taken the mission to heart and elected to help with youth development, as well.

Currently, North Carolina FC has 16 points in the League One standings and sits in last place.  In their last five outings, the clubs has managed a victory, a draw, and three losses.  The club does seem to have some confidence at the moment, as they earned a draw on the road against the Richmond Kickers and beat Forward Madison at home the previous Wednesday.  While the club may be riding on some confidence heading into tonight’s match, the month of August was not particularly friendly to them.  On a month-to-month comparison, August saw the club concede the most goals this season (13).  The next closest month was June, when the club conceded eight goals.  Sure, the club played the six matches in August, but even after removing the outliers, the club still had the most goals scored against them in August.  This bodes well for Union Omaha, who are working through their own woes at the moment.

The Owls enter Saturday’s match having drawn North Texas SC at home last week.  The club has only lost once in the last two months, so what could possibly be casting doubt on the club?  Scoring goals.  Union Omaha didn’t score a single goal in August.  The goal that ultimately led to a victory over FC Tucson was an own-goal.  The goal against Forward Madison was completely erased when the storms rolled through town, the match was postponed, and USL stated the re-match would be played from the very beginning.  The last time Union Omaha scored a goal was July 31st.  With less than two months until the end of the regular season, Union Omaha has to start finding the net if it wants a first-round bye in the Playoffs.  It’s not all doom and gloom, though.  With Evan Conway back on the front line, along with his partnership with Greg Hurst, it’s only a matter of time before the goals return in their favor.  Defenses will be stretched and offensive pressure on the flanks, provided by Dami Viader and Ferrety Sousa, will keep the NCFC defense on their heels.  Also, Union Omaha is only two points behind Chattanooga Red Wolves and six points ahead of North Texas SC, all while having a game in hand.  The Owls are still in great position to finish the regular season in prime position to make a strong push in the playoffs and toward the title.

Since Union Omaha is on the road, make sure to seek out one of the viewing parties in Omaha or Lincoln.  It’s a great place to meet fellow fans of the Owls and enjoy the match day festivities.  After the match, keep checking back to Who Gives A Hoot for episodes of the podcast, articles, and social media posts.  We love the Owls and want to give you the best entertainment related to your favorite local club.  Until next time… ¡Viva Búhos!

USL League One Ratings: Week Whatever

I know, it’s been a while since I’ve published my League One ratings. Work, combined with a road trip and getting my college football model ready for this year put me behind. But I’m here now, and a lot has happened since these ratings were last published. So below are not just the current ratings, but also what they were the last time I gave an update:

TeamRating
(08.29.2021)
Previous
(07.29.2021)
Union Omaha (8-7-2)1.8682.104
Chattanooga Red Wolves (8-9-1)1.5501.533
North Texas SC (6-7-5)0.9970.079
Forward Madison (5-9-4)0.8690.824
Toronto FC II (6-7-6)0.6300.253
Richmond Kickers (6-7-6)0.4840.254
New England II (7-3-7)0.297-0.253
Greenville Triumph (6-6-7)0.2561.082
FC Tucson (6-4-8)0.1000.335
Fort Lauderdale CF (7-4-9)0.0310.058
South Georgia Tormenta (7-3-11)-0.488-0.503
North Carolina FC (4-4-10)-0.835-0.777
Ratings as of 08.31.2021

So most teams saw little movement, likely because of all the draws we’ve had recently. North Texas, unsurprisingly, saw the biggest move up. They’ve not only played six matches since the last update, but haven’t lost any of them. Greenville had an inverse North Texas run, having played five matches since the last update and not having won any of them. We also seem to be seeing a little more separation in the middle now, which defends the theory that while the middle of the table may appear to be a jumbled mess containing 75% of the league, we still sorta know which of those teams are truly fighting for playoff spots, and which teams are named South Georgia Tormenta.

Seeing ten teams with positive ratings only reiterates the point I made before, which is that I might want to consider adjusting how draws are pointed next season. I will obviously not alter the formula in the middle of the season, but I still think seeing these ratings in a format that uses the highest and lowest rated teams as a range is an interesting evaluation method. This helps compare teams not only to each other, but also trying to decipher which teams are closer to “average”. Here’s what that looks like this week:

TeamAdj. Rating
Omaha1.3515
Chattanooga1.0335
North Texas0.4805
Madison0.3525
Toronto0.1135
Richmond-0.0325
New England-0.2195
Greenville-0.2605
Tucson-0.4165
Fort Lauderdale-0.4855
Tormenta-1.0045
North Carolina-1.3515
Adjusted Ratings

This view somewhat agrees with my personal opinion of which teams I would be worried seeing in a potential playoff game. I honestly stop getting worried around the point we get to Richmond, however I personally have concerns going against a veteran goalkeeper like Akira Fitzgerald in a single playoff game. I will likely present this alternate view the rest of the year because it will probably be the basis of how I begin evaluating potential adjustments for next year.

USL League One Predictions: Week 22

A lot of just staying the course last week, as Ben is doing his best to simply tread water and not give up his lead. Liam already has an exacto this week (his 16th already this year), so if he wants to make things interesting after this week he’ll need to go on a run. I forgot to invite Liam to my fantasy football draft last week, because at this point I honestly think with his help I’d draft a healthy mix of either MVP candidates or week 1 torn ACLs. That would have really helped me prepare for NFL gambling this year.

BenJonLiamLukeRichRileyRyan
North Carolina 1-0 Madison0000010
Toronto 0-0 Chattanooga0000220
Richmond 0-0 North Carolina0202000
Tormenta 2-4 Fort Lauderdale1001001
Omaha 0-0 North Texas2000000
Tucson 2-1 Greenville0101101
Total3 pts3 pts0 pts 4 pts3 pts3 pts2 pts
Week 21 Results
RecordPoints
Ben45-6878
Rich42-7172
Liam35-7866
Ryan39-7463
Jon41-7262
Luke41-7258
Riley35-7356
Week 21 Standings
BenJonLiamLukeRichRileyRyan
New England Revolution II v. FC Tucson (1-2)3-22-01-21-11-10-21-2
Greenville Triumph v. Toronto FC II (Friday, 6:00)1-11-11-01-00-10-10-1
North Carolina FC v. Union Omaha (Saturday, 6:00)0-0 🏝0-20-20-30-10-20-2
Fort Lauderdale CF v. Chattanooga Red Wolves (Saturday, 6:30)1-11-21-22-22-21-12-2
North Texas SC v. FC Tucson (Saturday, 8:00)4-14-11-02-11-2 🏝2-23-1
New England Revolution II v. South Georgia Tormenta (Sunday, 6:00)3-13-11-20-11-1 🏝0-12-0
Week 22 Predictions

Data Dump vs. North Texas (#2)

The longer the season goes on, the harder it feels to come up with original content that is interesting and of value. Some of that is our sheer consistency. We have a Jay Mims system, the players work that system. Example: in the last 10 games we’ve averaged 45.7% of the possession, the highest amount of possession we had over that stretch was 48.3% (vs. NE Revs II), the lowest 41.1% (vs Chattanooga). That difference comes to about 6.5 mins over 90, very consistent. But, I’ll try and focus on some things that are different about this week’s game. So, let’s dive in.

1) A non 1-1 draw?!

It finally happened. After six straight draws with a 1:1 scoreline, we had a 0:0 draw. This is the first nil nil draw for the club in 322 days. That’s pretty alright. The last 0:0 draw? You probably don’t remember because it was that miserable game we played at Hart Park last season. That game, vs Madison in Milwaukee, is the least interesting game in club history according to xG and the only game we’ve played with a combined xG of less than 1. Saturday night’s combined xG? 1.44.

2) The scoring draught is real (scary).

You can say what you want about the OG in AZ or the Header that Didn’t Count from The Game That Wasn’t. But those don’t count for the purposes of this bullet point. Here we are talking about a Union Omaha player putting the ball in the back of the net. This is something that I consider a mark of a functioning attack.

We have three long scoreless streaks in club history. Let’s start with the longest one as measured by the calendar. The 183 days between Evan Conway goals to end the 2020 season and start the 2021 season takes the cake, but there was only about 25 minutes of game time in between those goals.

As for in-season streaks. The previous longest streak was 20 days, (9/11 to 9/30 in 2020), but 314 minutes of game time. We lost 3 times during this streak.

Our current, and active, streak of not putting the ball in the net is going to last at least 36 days and be 373 minutes long when the game kicks off on Saturday. As mentioned above, reasonable people can disagree with my assessment of the length of this streak, but we are having a problem scoring goals either way.

We’ve scored 8 goals in the last 9 games. That is 2x as many as we scored against NE Revs II. We’ve only given up 6 goals though. Either way, I’m very anxious about this.

3) Blake Malone debuts!

We saw our fifth player start at center back this week and Mr. 5 Across the Back, Blake “Ba-Lock-A Muh-Loan” Malone did great in my opinion. Additionally, this is a very positive development because, if you had forgotten, we signed an academy player to a contract 2 days before starting him against Chattanooga last week. Let’s check some stats.

Centerback stats UO v NTSC
Centerback stats UO v FC Tucson (#1)

Daltyn has an edge in the air, but Blake’s effort compares quite favorably. In addition to these absolutely solid stats, I noticed in the second half, every time a North Texas player hit the deck, Blake would quietly says something directly to them as he passed over them. It did not look like he was saying nice things, I liked that.

USL League One Predictions: Week 21

Is this starting to look like a runaway? It’s starting to look a little like a runaway with Ben’s recent surge. Can any of us challenge him this week?

BenJonLiamLukeRichRileyRyan
Chattanooga 1-1 North Texas2000000
Madison 2-2 Toronto2002002
Chattanooga 1-0 Omaha0000000
Madison 1-1 North Texas3003003
Tormenta 1-1 New England0330030
Greenville 0-2 Richmond0000000
Fort Lauderdale 0-4 Tucson0000010
Total7 pts3 pts3 pts5 pts0 pts4 pts5 pts
Week 20 Results
RecordPoints
Ben43-6475
Rich40-6769
Liam35-7266
Ryan37-7061
Jon39-6859
Luke38-6954
Riley33-6953
Week 20 Standings
BenJonLiamLukeRichRileyRyan
North Carolina FC v. Forward Madison (1-0)0-10-11-21-10-02-1 🏝0-3
Toronto FC II v. Chattanooga Red Wolves (Friday, 15:00)1-22-11-22-11-11-10-2
Richmond Kickers v. North Carolina FC (Saturday, 17:30)2-01-11-2 🏝1-12-12-01-0
South Georgia Tormenta v. Fort Lauderdale CF (Saturday, 19:00)2-32-12-2 🏝0-12-13-11-2
Union Omaha v. North Texas SC (Saturday, 19:00)1-1 🏝2-12-12-01-03-12-1
FC Tucson v. Greenville Triumph (Saturday, 21:00)0-33-21-1 🏝2-02-01-22-0
Week 21 Predictions