Showdown at Chocktaw Ends in Draw

Down in Arlington, Texas Sunday night, it was one of those evenings where dogs are a trees best friend.  It was hot (right around 100°) and dry (humidity around 33%) – a perfect setting for fire to spread and it did just that, figuratively, onto the soccer field in Chocktaw Stadium.  The match between North Texas SC and Union Omaha was filled with heart, grit, and a few goals to make it interesting.  I’ll save you the suspense: yes, the match ended in yet another draw, the fourth in a row between these two clubs.  The 2-2 final score doesn’t tell the whole story, so let’s dive right in.

            Union Omaha, donned in lightning yellow jerseys, shorts, and socks, were awarded the opening kickoff.  From the get go, the Owls looked to utilize the left side of the field, but the North Texas defense was able to fill their right side of the field with numbers to absorb the attack.  Along with absorbing the attack, North Texas looked very composed playing the ball out of the back.  They felt the pressure, but they remained calm and stuck to their game plan early on.

            In the 4th minute of play, Union Omaha’s Conor Doyle added a productive wrinkle to the Owl’s offense.  Playing as the left midfielder, Doyle received a pass on the left side of the field and instead of turning toward the sideline, he opted to turn inside.  As he did, he opened up a lot more possibilities for himself and his teammates.  As you can see in the video below, there were far more red jerseys occupying the left flank.  When he turns inside, there’s plenty of space with which to work.  After passing the ball to Sousa, he doesn’t give up on the developing play.  Watch him continue to run into the North Texas half and doesn’t get picked up by the defense until Devin Boyce feeds a long ball toward the right corner.  Even with two defenders closing in on him quickly, he’s able to get the ball into the penalty area.  Despite the play not ending in a goal, that kind of movement off the ball is incredibly valuable to throwing off the defense.  It was an improvised, yet calculated run because Doyle had the situational awareness to spot the weakness in the North Texas defense.

            Almost immediately after that play ended, another bright tactical decision was made by Union Omaha.  North Texas was playing a conservative defense and their initial point of pressure seemed to be right at the half line.  So, Union Omaha developed a plan to stretch the defense and open up space for the offense to work.  As you watch the next gif, watch the backline and supporting midfield combine for multiple short passes.  This was the bait that they needed to draw North Texas players further up the field.  Once enough numbers were present, Union Omaha’s Damiá Viader quickly crossed the ball backward to teammate Blake Malone.  Once Malone settled the ball, he left it for Emir Alihodžić to quickly turn a lob a deep into the final third.  With the North Texas midfield drawn forward and the defense setting their line too far back, there was plenty of open space and the defense was left vulnerable and Alihodžić correctly identified a potential one-on-one downfield.  Union Omaha forward Greg Hurst was close to connecting with that pass, but North Texas goalkeeper Colin Shutler did well to leave his line and intercept the ball.  This is another case of great planning and good execution.

            Now if you paid attention to any of the possession statistics from the four previous matches between these two clubs, you noticed how much more North Texas had than Union Omaha.  If you don’t recall the numbers, I’ll help you out: over the past four matches against North Texas, Union Omaha possessed the ball on average 43.3% of the time.  Knowing this, Union Omaha had to plan for the eventuality of North Texas owning the majority of the possession again on this occasion.  It’s good that Union Omaha manager Jay Mims didn’t try to force the issue and make the Owls play a style of play they aren’t accustomed to.  Instead, he developed a plan to achieve multiple goals.  First step: pressure high.  Don’t let the backline get comfortable with the ball and don’t let the midfielders find the passing lanes.  Second step: move personnel from side to side to condense numbers wherever the ball is.  More players near the ball means the opponent has less time to think about what they’re going to do with the ball, limits them to one or two touches, disrupts their desired flow, and creates more chances for the Owls to capitalize on a mistake.

            Here’s another video for you to watch.  You can see North Texas swinging the ball across the backline and waiting for something to open up.  When they choose to attack down their right side, you can actually see the Union Omaha midfielders keep their line and shift to their left.  In fact, they shifted so much that Devin Boyce was practically inside the center circle.  At one point in the video, you can count six North Texas players within about 20 yards of one another.  In that same amount of space is eight Union Omaha defenders.  With passing windows and touches limited, North Texas dropped the ball and tried to quickly shift their attack to their left side.  Union Omaha, being the highly-disciplined squad that they are, adjusted just as quickly.  Now looking for attacking opportunities on the left side, North Texas players found themselves outnumber again: 4 to 6.  This time, North Texas forward Kalil Elmedkhar rushed his touch, Boyce was able to apply some pressure, and turned it over to Union Omaha captain Ferrety Sousa.

            Both clubs were moving the ball well, battling for possession, and fighting to gain another yard of space.  In order to break the deadlock, a moment of boldness would need to happen.  Enter Damiá Viader: the cunning Catalan with copious amounts of creativity to contribute.  In the 11th minute, he received a pass about 15 yards inside of the North Texas half.  From the camera angle, he had no passing options available and plenty of red shirts in front of him.

So what does this guy decide to do?  Dribble straight at the defense.  This guy went full-on Leroy Jenkins mode, grabbed a Super Star from Super Mario, and took on the defense all by himself.  As he dribbled toward the goal, he didn’t even bother to juke the first defender.  He might as well have not even acknowledged his existence.  The next defender saw him coming a simply took a knee, clearly telling Viader that he’s not worthy of defending him.  Then, right as Viader gets to the top of the 18-yard box, the defenders start crowding him.  None of them were trying to push him or even trying to stab at the ball.  It’s almost as if they were escorting him into their own box.  It didn’t take long for Damiá to take full advantage of the opportunity because he lined up a shot for his right foot and went upper-90 to the near post.  North Texas’ goalkeeper, Colin Shutler, gave a good effort to parry the shot away, but wasn’t quick enough to get lateral.  It was a fantastic goal and Damiá’s fifth goal of the season.

            You would think North Texas would be rattled after such a goal, but they composed themselves very well.  Once the ensuing kickoff granted them possession, they made sure to keep it, move it around, and try to find the right space in Union Omaha’s defense.  They were easily stringing together ten passes, incorporating multiple players, and trying to work different angles.  It paid off in the 17th minute.  Coincidentally, North Texas was able to connect 17 passes in a row before the goal.  The team was having a difficult time finding the right way to get the ball into the middle of the field.  Caiser Gomes, one of the North Texas defenders, received a pass and immediately sent the ball long and into a crowded middle of the field.  From there, a few one-touch passes and a scoop-pass by center midfielder Blaine Ferri that went over the Union Omaha defense was all that was needed to free Kalil Elmedkhar, get him in a one-on-one with Union Omaha goalkeeper Rashid Nuhu, and send the ball into the back of the net.

I could’ve sworn that Kalil ElMedkhar was offside, but after taking a screenshot, I think the referees made a good decision to avoid making the call.  In the screenshot provided below, it looks like ElMedkhar’s right foot is even with the right foot of Jacob Crull.  If there were to be an offside called, it would be because of ElMedkhar’s right shoulder possibly being inches in front of the defense, but that would require Video Assistant Referee (VAR) and USL League One doesn’t have that available.

            The rest of the first half was a possession battle between the two sides.  North Texas had a couple of good chances on goal and Union Omaha had a promising attempt, as well.  North Texas was beginning to gain more of a presence in the middle of the field.  As that happened, Union Omaha was seen to scramble a bit more.  The Owls tried to keep the ball away, but fast-breaks don’t often lend favorable chances for extended possessions, so they were forced to play more defense until the halftime whistle was blown.

            At the start of the second half, it seemed to play out a lot like the start of the first half.  North Texas was maintaining possession, Union Omaha was shifting personnel to create numbers in the area, and North Texas was fighting to find some space in the middle of the field.  There did seem to be a tactical shift with the North Texas defense.  Instead of letting themselves spread out and become vulnerable to thru-balls, they started showing more of a bunker defense.  This shift would create problems for Union Omaha because they had the personnel advantage in the final third, closed down passing lanes and crossing opportunities, and also closed down the shooting angles.

            It didn’t take long for North Texas to take the lead in the second half.  In the 53rd minute, North Texas forward Kalil ElMedkhar, goal-scorer in the first half, received a pass right near the midline on the left side of the field.  He turned toward the Union Omaha half and quickly sent a curling long ball into Union Omaha’s penalty area, directly to the feet of teammate Freddy Vargas.  Without even taking a touch to settle the ball, Vargas slotted the ball under an advancing Rashid Nuhu and gave his club the lead.  The pass from ElMedkhar was beautifully executed and Vargas did well to finish the chance.  Nuhu seemed to feel there was a possibility of offside being called, but the camera angle and the speed at which it panned across the field didn’t allow viewers a chance to support his claims.

            For nearly half an hour, Union Omaha put the pressure on North Texas with little to show for it.  There were great chances in front of the net, like in the 75th minute when Union Omaha forward Evan Conway had a clear chance at goal and head the ball past the far post.  He knew that he had a great chance before him and wasn’t afraid to show his frustration after the ball went out of bounds.  Union Omaha fans would only have to wait six more minutes before they could celebrate again.

            In the 81st minute, Union Omaha defender Jacob Crull was able to win an aerial duel after a North Texas goal kick.  The ball found its way to teammate Evan Conway, who quickly combined with Damiá Viader to move the ball up the field.  Once Viader was running pace-for-pace with Conway on the left flank, Conway gave Viader the ball and broke his run toward the North Texas penalty area.  One of the North Texas defenders floated toward Viader and opened up a large gap for Conway.  Viader saw the space and fed the ball to Conway, who could barely settle the ball before Caiser Gomes was on top of Conway.  The window of opportunity was shrinking faster and faster as more defenders rushed toward him, but Conway was still able to get the ball in the net.  The immediate celebration let you know how much that goal meant to the squad.  Substitutes on the sideline joined in the celebration with all of the field players.  The team was tied with North Texas, on track to earn a point on the road as the end of the regular season inches closer, and Evan Conway just scored for the first time in 135 days.  There was plenty to celebrate.

            If you’ve noticed anything about the coaching style of Jay Mims, it’s that he’s not going to let the team settle with a tie.  Maybe he thinks ties are like kissing your sister or maybe he knows that one is the loneliest number.  Whatever the reason, Jay Mims put the fire back in the team’s belly and urged them to keep battling to the end of the match.  With the small amount of time left, Union Omaha was able to generate one more quality chance on goal.  Second-half sub Ricardo Rivera went one-on-one with Caiser Gomes in the penalty area, cut the ball back, and spotted Devin Boyce charging into the box.  Rivera connected a pass to Boyce, who lined up the shot from the right side of the penalty area.  Striking hard and low, aiming for the back post, everything seemed to go in slow motion as the ball crept across the box.  It looked promising.  It looked destined to go in, but ultimately the shot went just wide of the post.  Soon after, the referee blew the whistle to end the match.

            Union Omaha and North Texas have had truly impressive battles against each other and this occasion lived up to the expectations.  The Owls were happy to pick up a point on the road.  Both teams showed great persistence for the full 90 minutes.  These two clubs meet again during the very last match of the regular season.  With each passing week, every match gains more and more importance, so that last match will be a true joy to watch.

Data Dump: at North Texas SC (#1)

Howdy folks! (That’s a thing people in Texas say right?) That was a fun game of soccer played at a baseball stadium that has football lines, now wasn’t it. In my never ending quest to make this column easier to write, let’s dive in.

1) Goals given up at Globe Life Park.

This is definitely tweet material, but here is a really fun fact for you. Rashid Nuhu has never given up a goal to a player without MLS experience at Globe Life Park Choctaw Stadium. Let’s review:

8/23/2020 Goal 1: Edwin Cerrillo ( 15 MLS appearances, 1027 MLS minutes at the time of goal)
8/23/2020 Goal 2: Rayo (0 MLS appearances, 0 MLS minutes; BUT, this was scored on Sam Howard, so HA loophole)

9/19/2021 Goal 1: Kalil ElMedkhar (6 MLS appearances, 118 MLS minutes at the time of goal)
9/19/2021 Goal 2: Freddy Vargas (11 MLS appearances, 514 MLS minutes at the time of goal)

2) Formation Tweaks

There were a few topics vying for the 2nd spot this week, but all of them had a common theme which was the personnel we were using after the 72nd minute substitutions. While it is satisfying to see your team fight back to claim vital road points, it was even more satisfying to watch Jay Mims pull the strings like a magician from the sideline.

If you were following along at home, he made 3 substitutions, he replaced our leading scorer in the 67′, then did a double switch where swapped out a central midfielder (and took out the teams best aerial threat) and a winger (and our leading assist man) for an central defender and a defensive midfielder…AND IT WORKED!

We played a 4-4-2, but had Dami playing left wing, looking sublime, and Jake looking incredible at left back as well. All of this was supported by Evan Conway looking like his old self again with 4 shots on target (out of the team’s 5) and just luscious stats up and down the board.

Basically, no other way to say this, but that was a brutal TotW snub for Evan. Also, It was incredible to see Evan score again and draw level on the UO all-time scoring charts with Greg Hurst.

What a night.

3) DAMI WATCH!

*breathes into a paper bag for 10 minutes*

I don’t know if there is a soccer equivalent of The Gordie Howe Hattrick, (Goal, Assist, Fight), but if there is it should be Goal, Assist, Yellow card. And our boy Dami earned his Sunday night with the banger, the point saving assist, and a spectacular yellow card for being correct at an inconvenient time for the ref.

Back to the banger, were you watching Dami score this goal and thinking, “Holy Cow, I love watching Dami score goals on TV?” I was, and so I did some digging on Transfermarkt. Here’s another tweetable nugget, this season, all 5 of Dami’s goals and 3 of his 4 assists have come on the road. And since ending the scoring draught, he has been involved in 5 of the 7 goals we’ve scored. What a player.

But, you don’t have to take my word for it…

See you all at Morrison on Saturday. I’m expecting big things.

North Texas SC Preview

            It’s Week 24, Búhos fans!  As each week passes, the next matches get bigger and bigger.  Think about Cardi B’s cousin’s friend’s current dilemma, then think even bigger.  These matches mean a lot.  By the way, don’t google that tweet while on a work computer.  You’ve been warned.  This week, Union Omaha finds itself playing against a familiar foe in North Texas SC.  As the Owls travel down to Arlington, Texas, they look to continue riding their current wave of positive results.  When the clubs take the field at Globe Life Park, they’ll be meeting for the second time in three weeks.  Kickoff is scheduled for 6 PM (CST) on Sunday and, as usual, ESPN+ will provide the live broadcast.

            Whereas Union Omaha comes into this contest riding high, North Texas SC seems to have lost its way.  The FC Dallas developmental club has lost two in a row, is winless in their last six matches, and faces a Union Omaha squad that has managed better results on the road than at home this season.  Last week, North Texas visited South Georgia Tormenta and returned home empty-handed, much like the week before, as well.  North Texas team manager, Eric Quill, is certainly working overtime to make sure his squad finishes the season on a positive note.  North Texas will need to address their scoring woes on Sunday night because in their last five matches, they’ve been outscored 2-5.  Union Omaha will be focused on expanding that goal differential before the final whistle blows.

            On the other end of the field, Union Omaha fixed their scoring issue and found results to keep up with Chattanooga at the top of the table.  The Owls and Chattanooga Red Wolves are currently even on points, but Union Omaha has two games in hand.  Advantage: Union Omaha.  The Owls have played 11 away matches entering Sunday night’s clash and only lost two of those matches, both by a single goal.  Union Omaha’s manager, Jay Mims, displayed a great sense of relief with the home win over Toronto FC II last week.  In a social media post by the club, Mims was seen repeatedly pumping his fists, saying the three points were “huge,” and expressed many thanks to all of the fans who made it to Werner Park for the match.

            Going back to last season, Union Omaha and North Texas SC have played each other four times.  Union Omaha has one win in the series and the rest of the results were draws.  The total amount of goals scored in those four matches comes out to a 4-3 advantage for Union Omaha.  When the two clubs meet face-to-face, both sides are more likely to earn yellow and red cards, instead of goals.  In the four matches already discussed, there have been a total of 20 yellow cards and 2 straight red cards.  With North Texas SC sitting in 8th Place with 26 points, they are only one point away from the playoff cutoff point right now.  A win would place them in a much more comfortable position to sneak into the playoffs.  Getting into postseason play may come down to the very last week of the regular season, which coincidentally, is another match between Union Omaha and North Texas SC in Arlington.  It’s going to be a very interesting series of weeks to finish the season.

            It’s difficult to really dial in on what differentiates these two clubs.  They’re both fast, very physical, and work hard to disrupt their opponent early in their attack.  North Texas will win the possession battle and will probably have higher-quality passes, too.  The true decider could easily come down to two areas: duels won and movement off the ball.  With as physical and aggressive as North Texas SC is, Union Omaha will have their work cut out for them to protect their ground and secure the ball after the challenge.  There will be a lot of duels, both on the ground and in the air, so the Owls will need to stay strong and use their opponent’s center of gravity against themselves.  Movement off the ball will be crucial as well, just as fans saw from the Owls last week against Toronto FC II.  When Devin Boyce and Greg Hurst combined for that slick first goal of the match, it wouldn’t have happened without Boyce’s continued run after passing to Hurst.  It takes a lot of situational awareness to make those decisions, but Union Omaha has shown that same ability in countless other instances.  There’s an intelligence and chemistry among the squad at the moment, so hopefully they’ll continue to take advantage of their run of recent form.

            Alright, Búhos Nation, we need to talk some business.  As you may or may not know, Union Omaha will be playing their next home match, against FC Tucson, inside Creighton University’s own Morrison Stadium on Saturday, September 18th at 7 PM (CST).  I haven’t heard any indication of the match being a sellout, so we need you all to speak with your friends, family members, co-workers, dog walker, mail deliverer, etc.  This is a huge opportunity to show the club what it may look like to have their matches in a soccer-specific stadium, in a downtown location, and supported by a larger-than-usual supporter base.  Last week’s attendance was the lowest of the season, so let’s make sure next week’s match is the biggest in history.  FC Tucson is a quality club with a strong possibility of making the playoffs.  Maybe the two clubs will meet again in November.  Who knows?  In case that does happen, let’s make Morrison Stadium an imposing atmosphere and take them off their game.  We know you love and support the Owls, so gather your crew, purchase your tickets, come to the pregame meetup at the Session Room, and bring the energy to Morrison Stadium!  ¡Viva Búhos!

Data Dump: Toronto FC II

Well that was a fun night a Werner Park! There is a lot to digest in this one so let’s dive in.

1) JP Scearce scores his first 2021 goal (FINALLY)

Let’s start with a grim stat. For the 4th time in the last 5 home games, we scored a 1st half goal and gave up a 2nd half goal. But this time, the only time out of those 4 games, we scored a second; thank you JP!

That finish tho
This is just mean Luke.

So yes, this was an “important” goal for the team, and it must have felt great for JP to finally get his first on the year. But at #datadump we love it because it removed JP from his spot of distinction on the “bad” list.

For me, the “bad” list is players with the lowest number on the G-xG list. JP was first in the league for 2021 on this metric and 7th all time in league history. He is currently 9th on the season and 32nd overall in league history.

JP has had terrible luck this year when it comes to scoring, but not for lack of trying. A few months ago, I asked my friends at the Media Empire if there was a place I could bet on individual goal scorers in League One, because we all knew this goal was coming. I was told it wasn’t a thing and therefore missed out on a massive payday.

2) 5 in the back

There was a little chatter online about us playing five in the back. Obviously, these folks missed the games at Tucson and my coverage of the phenomena. But, I did not, so I grabbed this pic of us playing 5 at the back for the last 10 minutes of the match.

Original photography by me, Ben Turner.
It is also backed up here by average positions.

3) Goals at the Berm End

This one is for Luke, Andrew, AND Sean who all asked me about this.

So, this was the week to do this. In part, because we’ve played 8 games at home in 2021, same as we did in 2020, in part because this game was the 3rd time I was asked for the data. So I did the research, and…it’s actually pretty interesting.

Findings

  • We’ve attacked the Berm End in the first half in 11 of 16 matches.
  • There have been 32 goals scored at Werner Park in 16 matches.
  • 21 have been scored by Union Omaha (11 by our opponents).
  • 12 first half goals, 9 second half goals for Union Omaha. 4 first half goals, 7 second half goals for our opponents. (I don’t like this stat).
  • 16 first half and 16 second half goals.
  • 16 goals have been scored at the Berm End. 10 by Union Omaha, 6 by our opponents.

No real advantages, end of story right? Not so fast, here is where it gets interesting.

  • 2020: 5 of 14 goals were scored at the Berm End, 3 of the 9 goals UO scored were at the Berm End.
  • 2021: 11 of 18 goals were scored at the Berm End, 7 of the 12 goals UO scored were at the Berm End.

What does it mean?! I’m always going to answer: soccer is random. But I think there is something in there. I’d love to hear what conclusions you draw from this. I’m going to keep tracking and will update again at the end of the year.

Toronto FC II Preview

            Welcome to Week 23, Búhos fans.  Today is a busy day for the USL League One, as every club will be in action.  If that seems at all unfamiliar, you’re right to feel that way.  This is the first time this season that the entire league will be in action on the same day.  With that being said, we all know which match takes precedence – Union Omaha versus Toronto FC II.  This raises another “first” worthy of mentioning: this evening, Toronto FC II will be taking in the sights and sounds of Werner Park for the first time ever.  ESPN+ will broadcast the live match at 7 PM (CST).

            Looking at head-to-head statistics between the two clubs is a bit difficult because they’ve only faced off once in history.  Due to logistical complications brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, the club was forced into withdrawing from the 2020 USL League One season.  When the two did compete earlier this season, Toronto FC II was taking up temporary residence in their home (Grande Sports World complex in Casa Grande, Arizona) away from home (Osceola Heritage Park in Kissimmee, Florida) away from home (BMO training grounds in Toronto, Ontario).  The match ended in a 1-1 draw.

            The Arizona heat took a toll on both sides, but the match still provided plenty of entertainment.  For the most part, the clubs were fairly equal in their statistics.  On paper, the biggest difference was the number of corner kicks.  While Toronto FC II had three corner kicks, Union Omaha had nine.  While watching the two teams play, another area of play that jumped out to me was the fight for possession.  Toronto FC II ended up with more possession by the final whistle, but Union Omaha disrupted and pressured before the Young Reds were able to settle into any sense of comfort with the ball.

            Looking at the current standings, Toronto FC II sits in 10th place with 25 points, only a single point away from playoff contention.  The Young Reds have only won twice on the road this season, conceding 18 goals in 11 away matches.  The club is currently experiencing a goal-producing issue.  In the month of July, Toronto only had one match in which they were able to find the back of the net.  While they were able to score in August, the Young Reds haven’t tallied a goal since August 18th, almost a month ago.

            Whereas Toronto FC II finds themselves in a rut, Union Omaha exorcised their goalless demons last week by defeating North Carolina FC 3-0 in Cary, North Carolina.  Left back Damiá Viader stole the night with a pair of high-quality goals.  Forward Ricardo Rivera, playing in his third match with Union Omaha, scored his first goal.  The team’s performance was confidence-boosting, especially since there’s less than two months left in the regular season and Union Omaha is looking to lock up a first-round bye in the playoffs.

            Stylistically, this is a very good matchup.  Toronto FC II will punish any opponent if given the freedom of possession.  Don’t fret too much about that, though.  Everybody knows Union Omaha will press high, press early, and will be relentless in their pursuit to gain possession.  If they can’t gain possession, they’ll take comfort in knowing that they’ve disrupted Toronto’s game plan.  As we’ve seen, both this season and last, most of the clubs in League One do not handle chaos well.  Union Omaha bathes in it.

            Another facet of Toronto’s style that will make tonight’s match interesting is how they move up the field.  In all honesty, it’s similar to Forward Madison.  They like to create triangles on the flanks, play the one-touch passes inside and out, and overwhelm defenses with overlaps from the outside backs.  The incorporation of the central midfielders to these triangles keeps defenses guessing whether or not they’ll simply turn inside and look to switch the play, or force the ball back outside and move up the sidelines.  While this can be threatening, their central midfielders all too often opt to play the ball back outside.  More to the point, they are less likely to look forward for through-passes and utilizing their forwards.  If Union Omaha can overwhelm the midfield and disrupt the ball movement, they’ll be successful in making Toronto a one-trick pony with their long-ball switches.

            There’s less than two months left in the regular season, which means your chances to get out to Werner Park are dropping with each passing week.  Union Omaha matches are a great experience, only enhanced by the tremendous tailgates put on by the Parliament.  When you make it out to Werner Park again, make sure to get there early for free food, drinks, games, and music.  There’s a merchandise booth set up for anyone looking for Parliament clothing, stickers, and scarves.  You can make a donation to the supporters group, too.  Any amount will be happily accepted.

            Once the match is over, make sure to check Who Gives A Hoot Media for the latest episode of the podcast, data dumps, prediction threads, and other articles.  If you still aren’t satisfied with your Union Omaha coverage, you can follow Who Gives A Hoot and Parliament on social media for even more content.  Have a wonderful time watching the match tonight, wherever you may be.  Until next time…¡Viva Búhos!

USL League One Predictions: Week 23

So, nobody told me last week was the week to actually, you know, be accurate. This was my stupid idea, so I’m getting what I deserve at this point.

BenJonLiamLukeRichRileyRyan
New England 1-2 Tucson0030013
Greenville 3-0 Toronto0011000
Fort Lauderdale 0-0 Chattanooga2002222
North Carolina 0-3 Omaha0113111
North Texas 1-1 Tucson0000020
New England 1-1 Tormenta0000300
Total2 pts1 pt5 pts6 pts6 pts6 pts6 pts
Week 22 Results
RecordPoints
Ben46-7380
Rich45-7478
Liam38-8171
Ryan42-7869
Luke44-7564
Jon42-7763
Riley39-7562
Week 22 Standings
BenJonLiamLukeRichRileyRyan
Chattanooga Red Wolves v. North Texas SC (Wednesday, 1-0)1-10-1 🏝1-11-11-11-11-1
Greenville Triumph v. Chattanooga Red Wolves (Saturday, 18:00)1-11-10-2 🏝1-11-02-02-2
North Carolina FC v. New England Revolution II (Saturday, 18:00)1-22-31-21-20-21-1 🏝0-1
Forward Madison v. Richmond Kickers (Saturday, 19:00)1-11-21-10-10-10-20-0
South Georgia Tormenta v. North Texas SC (Saturday, 19:00)0-30-21-10-21-12-1 🏝0-2
Union Omaha v. Toronto FC II (Saturday, 19:00)2-02-02-03-02-12-12-0
FC Tucson v. Fort Lauderdale (Saturday, 21:00)3-12-02-32-11-00-22-2 🏝
Week 23 Predictions

Data Dump: at NCFC

Well, that was a delightful introduction to NCFC! We’ll talk more about the numbers in a bit, but first I want to say that I throughly enjoyed watching that game. It was a combination of factors for sure. A large part of it was the delightful commentary from the local commentary team of Austin da Luz and Dean Linke along with quality camera work and high resolution images. Both commentators have a long standing history with the club and region gave gave a glimpse into the rich history of the club and soccer in the region. Sure there were quaint mispronunciation of a bunch of our players names but that happens at it happens at Werner Park too! Only the most ironhearted would not have appreciated the shoutouts to our players with NCFC connections and their parents. Now, it was clear from the surprise shown to things like, Nuhu’s kicking ability, that they hadn’t watched much of us, but I had watched none of them so who am I to judge. But best of all, to finally hear someone associated with League One give unlimited praise to our team had to be salve to even the most jaded member of Buho Nation. It was neat. The result didn’t hurt either, so let’s dive in.

1) Streak breakers!

Thank goodness, I don’t have to update any of my scoreless streak data from last week. The streak ended 7 minutes into the game at 380 minutes. Let’s not need to revisit this information anytime soon. Dami’s goal was brilliant and Evan Conway got his first ever game winning assist!

Also let’s not dismiss Austin Panchot as our good luck talisman in this endeavor. In two of the three games he has started for the club we’ve broken 300+ minute scoring draughts. He even scored the draught breaker last year.

But that wasn’t the only streak that was ended on the night. We got a penalty!!

I thought this was awfully harsh penalty for NCFC to receive. Perhaps this is because the more typical League One experience is Ricky having his jersey pulled, impeding play, while running through the box with no call being made. But on the balance of play this year we deserved at least ONE penalty so, glad we got one. I also loved that their goalkeeper got a yellow for messing up the area around the penalty spot.

We went 29 games without a penalty being called. 382 days are a long time, but Evan and Dami once again combined to snap a streak that had gone on too long.

2) DAMI WATCH

There is still 35.7% of the season remaining, but with a performance like that, Dami leaves no doubt in my mind that he is the USL League One defender of the year. Let’s review the case:

CategoryDamiLeague RankTeam RankDefender Rank
Goals41321
Assists22244
xG+xA5.441922
Crosses130211
Chances Created41211
All team and Defender ranks from American Soccer Analysis, rest for League website

Oh also, he plays left back for the best defense in the league. Are you not entertained?

3) Teams we haven’t beaten

With our victory against NCFC, our list of teams that have played in USL League One (when we were in the league anyway (RIP Lansing)), that we haven’t beaten is down to three: Chattanooga (0-2-1), Richmond (0-1-1), and Toronto FC (0-0-1). I’m hopeful we can wrap this list up before the end of the season. That would, of course, involve us beating Chattanooga in the playoffs, but that kind of seems necessary to win the title anyway. Our first shot to get this list to zero, is Saturday at TFC II. See you there!

North Carolina FC Preview

            Good morning and happy match day, Búhos fans!  It’s been a while since I was last able to submit something for your reading pleasure, but I am back and ready to get you excited for tonight’s match between Union Omaha and North Carolina FC.  Believe it or not, these two clubs have never played against one another, so tonight’s match will have an extra dose of intrigue.  The match will take place in Sahlen’s Stadium at WakeMed Soccer Park in Cary, North Carolina. ESPN+ will broadcast the match, which kicks off at 6 PM (CST).

            North Carolina FC hasn’t had a desirable season in its first season of USL League One action, especially after spending the previous three seasons in the USL Championship.  Through the first eleven weeks of the USL League One season, NCFC had only earned a single point toward the standings.  The club had to wait until Week 12 to earn its first victory, a 2-1 home victory against the Richmond Kickers.  Since Week 12, the club has only lost four matches, while winning three matches, as well as drawing three matches.

Even after looking over the results since Week 12, it’s hard to pin a true identity to the club.  On the surface, they have a Jekyll-and-Hyde quality to their results, but when you dig a bit deeper, you start to see what truly makes this club tick: youth development.  When the club dropped from the USL Championship to USL League One, the club even cited focused development of youth in the region as their new, primary focus.  Staying true to their new mission, of the 28 players on their current roster, 22 have earned starts with the club and every player has seen the field in at least one match.  Yesterday, “Mr. NCFC” Nazmi Albadawi announced that his last match would be played on September 11th.  The long-time club player and 2021 team captain decided to hang up his cleats to take a full-time job in Raleigh, North Carolina.  In his retirement, Naz will also take on a coaching role within the Academy.  The club has developed a culture of fostering player growth from within and key players in the success of the club have taken the mission to heart and elected to help with youth development, as well.

Currently, North Carolina FC has 16 points in the League One standings and sits in last place.  In their last five outings, the clubs has managed a victory, a draw, and three losses.  The club does seem to have some confidence at the moment, as they earned a draw on the road against the Richmond Kickers and beat Forward Madison at home the previous Wednesday.  While the club may be riding on some confidence heading into tonight’s match, the month of August was not particularly friendly to them.  On a month-to-month comparison, August saw the club concede the most goals this season (13).  The next closest month was June, when the club conceded eight goals.  Sure, the club played the six matches in August, but even after removing the outliers, the club still had the most goals scored against them in August.  This bodes well for Union Omaha, who are working through their own woes at the moment.

The Owls enter Saturday’s match having drawn North Texas SC at home last week.  The club has only lost once in the last two months, so what could possibly be casting doubt on the club?  Scoring goals.  Union Omaha didn’t score a single goal in August.  The goal that ultimately led to a victory over FC Tucson was an own-goal.  The goal against Forward Madison was completely erased when the storms rolled through town, the match was postponed, and USL stated the re-match would be played from the very beginning.  The last time Union Omaha scored a goal was July 31st.  With less than two months until the end of the regular season, Union Omaha has to start finding the net if it wants a first-round bye in the Playoffs.  It’s not all doom and gloom, though.  With Evan Conway back on the front line, along with his partnership with Greg Hurst, it’s only a matter of time before the goals return in their favor.  Defenses will be stretched and offensive pressure on the flanks, provided by Dami Viader and Ferrety Sousa, will keep the NCFC defense on their heels.  Also, Union Omaha is only two points behind Chattanooga Red Wolves and six points ahead of North Texas SC, all while having a game in hand.  The Owls are still in great position to finish the regular season in prime position to make a strong push in the playoffs and toward the title.

Since Union Omaha is on the road, make sure to seek out one of the viewing parties in Omaha or Lincoln.  It’s a great place to meet fellow fans of the Owls and enjoy the match day festivities.  After the match, keep checking back to Who Gives A Hoot for episodes of the podcast, articles, and social media posts.  We love the Owls and want to give you the best entertainment related to your favorite local club.  Until next time… ¡Viva Búhos!

USL League One Ratings: Week Whatever

I know, it’s been a while since I’ve published my League One ratings. Work, combined with a road trip and getting my college football model ready for this year put me behind. But I’m here now, and a lot has happened since these ratings were last published. So below are not just the current ratings, but also what they were the last time I gave an update:

TeamRating
(08.29.2021)
Previous
(07.29.2021)
Union Omaha (8-7-2)1.8682.104
Chattanooga Red Wolves (8-9-1)1.5501.533
North Texas SC (6-7-5)0.9970.079
Forward Madison (5-9-4)0.8690.824
Toronto FC II (6-7-6)0.6300.253
Richmond Kickers (6-7-6)0.4840.254
New England II (7-3-7)0.297-0.253
Greenville Triumph (6-6-7)0.2561.082
FC Tucson (6-4-8)0.1000.335
Fort Lauderdale CF (7-4-9)0.0310.058
South Georgia Tormenta (7-3-11)-0.488-0.503
North Carolina FC (4-4-10)-0.835-0.777
Ratings as of 08.31.2021

So most teams saw little movement, likely because of all the draws we’ve had recently. North Texas, unsurprisingly, saw the biggest move up. They’ve not only played six matches since the last update, but haven’t lost any of them. Greenville had an inverse North Texas run, having played five matches since the last update and not having won any of them. We also seem to be seeing a little more separation in the middle now, which defends the theory that while the middle of the table may appear to be a jumbled mess containing 75% of the league, we still sorta know which of those teams are truly fighting for playoff spots, and which teams are named South Georgia Tormenta.

Seeing ten teams with positive ratings only reiterates the point I made before, which is that I might want to consider adjusting how draws are pointed next season. I will obviously not alter the formula in the middle of the season, but I still think seeing these ratings in a format that uses the highest and lowest rated teams as a range is an interesting evaluation method. This helps compare teams not only to each other, but also trying to decipher which teams are closer to “average”. Here’s what that looks like this week:

TeamAdj. Rating
Omaha1.3515
Chattanooga1.0335
North Texas0.4805
Madison0.3525
Toronto0.1135
Richmond-0.0325
New England-0.2195
Greenville-0.2605
Tucson-0.4165
Fort Lauderdale-0.4855
Tormenta-1.0045
North Carolina-1.3515
Adjusted Ratings

This view somewhat agrees with my personal opinion of which teams I would be worried seeing in a potential playoff game. I honestly stop getting worried around the point we get to Richmond, however I personally have concerns going against a veteran goalkeeper like Akira Fitzgerald in a single playoff game. I will likely present this alternate view the rest of the year because it will probably be the basis of how I begin evaluating potential adjustments for next year.

USL League One Predictions: Week 22

A lot of just staying the course last week, as Ben is doing his best to simply tread water and not give up his lead. Liam already has an exacto this week (his 16th already this year), so if he wants to make things interesting after this week he’ll need to go on a run. I forgot to invite Liam to my fantasy football draft last week, because at this point I honestly think with his help I’d draft a healthy mix of either MVP candidates or week 1 torn ACLs. That would have really helped me prepare for NFL gambling this year.

BenJonLiamLukeRichRileyRyan
North Carolina 1-0 Madison0000010
Toronto 0-0 Chattanooga0000220
Richmond 0-0 North Carolina0202000
Tormenta 2-4 Fort Lauderdale1001001
Omaha 0-0 North Texas2000000
Tucson 2-1 Greenville0101101
Total3 pts3 pts0 pts 4 pts3 pts3 pts2 pts
Week 21 Results
RecordPoints
Ben45-6878
Rich42-7172
Liam35-7866
Ryan39-7463
Jon41-7262
Luke41-7258
Riley35-7356
Week 21 Standings
BenJonLiamLukeRichRileyRyan
New England Revolution II v. FC Tucson (1-2)3-22-01-21-11-10-21-2
Greenville Triumph v. Toronto FC II (Friday, 6:00)1-11-11-01-00-10-10-1
North Carolina FC v. Union Omaha (Saturday, 6:00)0-0 🏝0-20-20-30-10-20-2
Fort Lauderdale CF v. Chattanooga Red Wolves (Saturday, 6:30)1-11-21-22-22-21-12-2
North Texas SC v. FC Tucson (Saturday, 8:00)4-14-11-02-11-2 🏝2-23-1
New England Revolution II v. South Georgia Tormenta (Sunday, 6:00)3-13-11-20-11-1 🏝0-12-0
Week 22 Predictions