Union Omaha (13-8-4, 1^st place) vs. Forward Madison (6-11-8, 10^th place)

Werner Park, Papillion, Nebraska

7 PM (CST), ESPN+

            You know how there are things you do that will instantly give you a bad day, like spitting into the wind or spilling your coffee?  Well, you should add this to that list: being the second opponent to play Union Omaha after their latest loss.  This season, Union Omaha is undefeated in the second match after a loss, outscoring their opponent 9-2.  Forward Madison, notable gluttons for punishment, fell victim to this very statistic earlier this season, losing 1-2 at home after defeating Union Omaha two weeks prior.  Well, Forward Madison limps into Werner Park for a midweek match against Union Omaha (again, two weeks after the Owls’ last loss).  Don’t call it a comeback because there’s not one to happen here.

            The Flamingos are currently in their longest drought without a win (6 matches).  In this drought, they’ve been outscored 4-8.  Just a few weeks ago, the club still had a beacon of optimism when looking at their schedule.  They controlled their own destiny.  Now, the light has faded so much, they might as well be a character in the musical “Les Misérables”, singing about how there is no hope left in their life.  In order for them to have any semblance of a playoff chase, they have to win the match tonight.  Not draw.  Win.

            Union Omaha has already locked up a playoff spot, but a win tonight would clinch first place in the regular season and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  This is due to the fact that the Owls have been very productive in recent matches.  Three of their last four matches have seen Union Omaha score four goals each, while only conceding three goals in the same time frame.  No other club in the league has scored four goals in a single match as many times as Union Omaha has this season.  Let’s hope that tonight is another notch in that same column.

            These two clubs have faced off three times this season, five times in the past two seasons.  This season has seen each club win one, draw one, and lose one.  The only other match that Forward Madison played in Werner Park this season was a 1-1 draw, back on July 16^th.  The two clubs were in a hurry to finish a match during Week 18 (August 7^th), but the torrential downpour prevented the second half from finishing.  As a result, the match was rescheduled for tonight.  The weather looks to be far more cooperative for tonight, so knock on wood to prevent any jinxes happening in that regard.  Aside from a slight chill and some wind, the evening should proceed without any concern.

            Tonight’s tailgate will start at 5 PM, so bring your own food and prepare yourself for some good drinks, provided by Omaha Parliament.  You’re not going to want to miss tonight’s match, so make sure to get to the stadium early to have some fun with the fans before the 7 o’clock kickoff.  There are new items of merchandise to purchase from Parliament, including some awesome scarves (just in time for cold weather).  Also, there is a new episode of the “Who Gives A Hoot?” podcast, so make sure to check that out, as well.  Last week’s episode was fun to listen to, so you know that this week’s episode won’t disappoint.  Have they ever let you down?  I mean, really.  They haven’t.  Bring the noise, bring the passion, and cheer on the Owls to another great victory and ensure that you’ll see more of them at home in November.  See you at the stadium.  ¡Viva Búhos!

Union Omaha (12-8-4, 1^st place) vs. North Carolina FC (6-4-15, 12^th place)

Werner Park, Papillion, Nebraska

6 PM (CST), ESPN+

            Good morning, Búhos Nation, and welcome to another exciting week of USL League One action.  It’s Week 28 and your beloved Owls face off against North Carolina FC tonight at Werner Park for the first time ever.  North Carolina FC, who has already been eliminated from the playoffs, has nothing to lose.  Union Omaha, on the other hand, has everything to gain, so make sure you are in the stadium to cheer them on to victory.

            North Carolina FC is looking to finish off the week as strongly as they started it: with a win on the road.  On Wednesday, the club visited FC Tucson and finished the match with a 2-0 win.  The win proved to be their sixth of the season and their second on the road.  North Carolina FC currently sits in last place in the league and out of playoff contention.  Under a very rare circumstance, the club could see itself rise up to 9^th place by the end of the regular season.  This would require North Carolina FC to win their remaining matches, while watching Fort Lauderdale, Forward Madison, and South Georgia Tormenta FC lose their remaining matches.  The odds are extremely low, but at least the club has a reason to play.

            Union Omaha has a lot more to play for today and three points would be a crucial step toward attaining those goals.  Last week’s loss to Greenville Triumph took a little bit of wind out of their sails, but the squad has already moved past the loss and remains focused on finishing in first place before November arrives.  A win tonight would move Union Omaha up to 13 wins and 47 points, which means they would essentially lock up a top-two spot in the playoffs (first-round bye, home field advantage in the semifinals).  The Owls aren’t looking to settle for a top-two finish.  It’s first place or bust for them.  As long as Union Omaha matches results with Chattanooga Red Wolves for the rest of the season, they’ll be in first place and have home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  After looking over attendance records during the same weeks as a Union Omaha home match, there has only been one match (Forward Madison vs Richmond) that surpassed a home crowd at Werner Park. This goes to show how great Búhos Nation is and how consistent you are at supporting their home team.

            These two clubs have only faced one another once in the past: a 3-0 win for Union Omaha back on September 4^th.  Tonight will be a true test for North Carolina FC because they haven’t played in front of a bigger crowd this season than 2,552 people.  Union Omaha’s smallest home crowd attendance this season was 2,722 people, so if Búhos Nation fills up Werner Park the way they have this season, North Carolina FC will face its two toughest opponents this season: Union Omaha and Búhos Nation.

            If Union Omaha wants to keep a clean sheet tonight, they’ll have to keep an eye on players like midfielder Jay Tee Kamara (leads the team in assists and chances created, tied for team lead in goals), forward Robert Kristo, and midfielder Selmir Miscic. Their offense operates like a committee, sharing the goals and opportunities pretty evenly across the board.  On defense, Max Flick likes to be the conductor for the orchestra in front of him.  Flick leads the team in passes and shows a lot of patience playing out of the back.  In goal, North Carolina FC has seven clean sheets on the season and Jake McGuire has six of those clean sheets.  McGuire has also made 60 saves this season.  Don’t be surprised if North Carolina FC plays a bunker defense and then spends a lot of time spreading passes around the field.  They aren’t a team that likes to cross the ball into the box too often.  This means a lot more on-the-ground, individual battles.  They also like to take chances at dribbling the ball up the field, which plays right into Union Omaha’s preferred method of defense.  As the Owls shift personnel side to side, a player attempting a long dribble up the field won’t bode well for successful chances.  Union Omaha should be pretty successful at shutting down their offense.  It’s an interesting matchup, though.

            If you haven’t heard yet, the tailgate before tonight’s match will feature roasted hog from our very good friends at Blek Omaha.  There will be a spit roast and all of their delicious spices to go with the main dish.  They’ve been at multiple tailgates in the past and have never failed to deliver amazing tastes.  Bring your family and friends to the tailgate and enjoy games, music, drinks, food, and all of your Búhos friends, as well.  If you’re on the way to the stadium, switch over to the newest episode of the “Who Gives A Hoot?” podcast.  You know the names, the faces, and the voices.  Now get to know more of their takes on various topics.  This week’s episode doesn’t disappoint either.  See you at the stadium.  ¡Viva Búhos!

Meh, that was pretty lame game if I’m being honest. Probably because I woke up at 5am in Cancun, MX just to make it to that game (hashtag humblebrag). Kudos to Greenville to showing up and playing ugly enough soccer to steal a win and then celebrating like they actually care about the Big Green Belt. Shame on the referee for awarding a corner off someone’s hand in the box in the 89th minute. Instead of focusing too much on the game, I’m going to see if I can find some trends in the four losses we’ve had this season, so let’s dive in.

1) Time of Possession

We have talked a ton over the lifetime of the column about time of possession. It is commonly known, at least I think, that we seek to lose the possession battle in any given game. In the 2021 season, our losses have been the 1st (Greenville), 2nd (Tucson #2), 3rd (at Madison #1), and 13th (at Chattanooga) ranked games in Union Omaha time of possession. We have lost all 4 of those games 1-0. (Kind of impressive in its own right).

Result	Average Possession
Win:	44.0%
Draw:	45.0%
Loss:	55.7%

On average, we have 11 minutes and 14 seconds more of possession over a 96 minute game in our losses compared to our wins. Now let’s peek at results when winning or losing the possession battle:

Percent of Possession:	Points	Points per game
Under 50%:	41	2.05
Over 50%:	3	0.75

Ope, we’re still the same old Union Omaha.

2) Time of first goal.

Does the time of our opponent’s first goal affect our possession numbers?

Home	Away	Possession Percentage	Minute of Opponent’s Goal
Forward Madison	Union Omaha	51.1	58
Chattanooga	Union Omaha	45.6	79
Union Omaha	FC Tuscon	58.5	7
Union Omaha	Greenville	67.6	12

Not perfectly, but certainly recently, an early goal for our opponents has led to losses where we have a ton of possession.

3) Players being rotated?

With the decision to start a couple of converted midfielders at striker in this game the other thing I wanted to check was whether we were performing badly in games that had a big rotation. There were a lot of ways I could do this, but I chose a relatively simple way because of time constraints.

I believe our best XI, aka what I think Jay would roll out for a playoff game with everybody healthy, looks like this: Nuhu, Sousa, Illal, Knutson, Dami, Boyce, Scearce, Otenio, Doyle, Hurst, Conway. To measure our deviation from our best, I assessed each games starting lineup to see how many of those players were not starting (or playing in their ideal osition).

Home	Away	Missing Best XI	Missing Players
Forward Madison	Union Omaha	2	Conway, Otenio
Chattanooga	Union Omaha	5	Conway, Sousa, Osumanu, Knutson, Otenio (RB not MF)
Union Omaha	FC Tuscon	2	Knutson, Otenio
Union Omaha	Greenville	2	Conway, Hurst

In reviewing the chart, I learned nothing meaningful. Evan and Tobias appear a fair amount on the missing list, but we picked up plenty of points without those guys even seeing the bench this season. And I think including any of the rotated center backs is massively unfair because Jake and Blake have proven themselves to be MORE than capable of holding down the back line this season. And I would be equally confident with any of them (Knutson, Crull, Malone) playing next to Illal on the biggest stage.

I think it is hard to lump our losses in together which makes me both more and less confident going into the playoffs. On one hand, we’ve never lost starting our best XI. On the other hand, the last two losses have shown a blueprint to beat us: score early, park the bus, get lucky on a penalty (aka we miss or the misses an incredibly blatant handball in the box).

Instead of ending on a totally bleak note, let me end with a bonus data dump tidbit researched by based meme lord: Ranting Blue Penguin, aka Tim.

Bonus) New High Score Alert

I was stunned when I saw that we had 507 passes in our game against Greenville, those are “Congrats your team just held Barca to only X number of passes in your narrow Champions League defeat” numbers. Tim answered my call for assistance and did some game by game research on the league website to determine our previous season highs for passes were:

2020: 495 passes, vs Madison 8/19, Draw
2021: 478 passes, at Madison 5/26, Loss

I hope this record stands for a long time! Thanks again to Tim!

Union Omaha (11-8-3, 1^st place) vs. Ft. Lauderdale (7-6-11, 11^th place)

Werner Park, Papillion, Nebraska

7 PM (CDT), ESPN+

            After an emphatic 4-0 victory over South Georgia Tormenta last week, Union Omaha welcomes Fort Lauderdale CF to Omaha for a midweek match up in Week 27.  On the other side, Fort Lauderdale looks to rebound after a 0-1 loss to Greenville in South Carolina last Friday.  With only three matches remaining to their season after today, Fort Lauderdale needs a win today to stay in the hunt for the elusive playoffs.

            Darren Powell, the coach for Fort Lauderdale, is going to be looking for goal production from his squad this week – something that has been out of grasp over the past few matches.  Since September 4^th, the club has only managed to score two goals across four matches.  Forward Shaan Hundal, leading the team with seven goals so far this season, hasn’t lit up the scoreboard since a 4-2 victory over South Georgia Tormenta on August 28^th.  Left midfielder George Acosta has worked toward filling that gap, scoring three of the last six goals for his club, as well as leading the team in assists.  Acosta has also notched 37 chances created on this season, which is good enough to be tied for fifth in the league.  As a club, they’ve only managed a single victory in their last seven road matches.  They’ll need something special if that change is going to happen tonight.

            It seems worth noting that earlier this summer, Fort Lauderdale signed a duo of players with highly-recognizable last names in the world of soccer: Neville and Beckham.  Right back Harvey Neville, son of Manchester United’s Phil Neville, signed with the club back in May.  Not long afterward, forward Romeo Beckham, son of world-famous soccer player and movie inspirer David Beckham and former Spice Girl Victoria Beckham, made his debut with the club on September 20^th.

            Meanwhile, Union Omaha continues pushing toward cementing themselves as the top club in the regular season and earning home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  Assuming Chattanooga wins the rest of their regular season matches, the Owls will need to win four of their last six matches to earn the top seed in the playoffs.  While not taking their eye off of that prize, Union Omaha coach Jay Mims will have to be smart about load management down the stretch.  The Owls will be playing five matches over the next two-and-a-half weeks.  Luckily, all five of those matches will be at home, so no travel fatigue will be involved.

            Tonight will be the first home match for Union Omaha since they played at Morrison Stadium, so make sure to purchase a ticket and bring the same level of enthusiasm for your club.  Playoffs are only a few weeks away and the team could use all of your support from here on out.  On your way to the stadium, make sure to listen to the latest episode of the “Who Gives A Hoot?” podcast.  As usual, there will be a tailgate outside of Werner Park before the match, so feel free to stop by for food and beverages.  Parliament has some merchandise available for purchase before the match, so check out the latest designs.  With all of that said, have a wonderful match day and see you at the stadium.  ¡Viva Búhos!

Union Omaha (10-8-3, 2^nd Place) vs. South Georgia Tormenta (8-5-11, 7^th Place)

Erik Russell Park, Statesboro, Georgia

7 PM (CST), ESPN+

            Wow, this week really snuck up on me.  I hope your week has been a great one.  If not, you can start your weekend on the right foot.  It’s Week 25 and it’s matchday!  Union Omaha travels down to Georgia for a key match for both clubs.  When kickoff starts, make sure that you find yourself with your watch party, good food and beverages, and ready to cheer the Owls on to three points.

            South Georgia enters the week coming off of a bye week.  This match will also be Tormenta’s last match in Erk Russell Park, as the club builds a new, state-of-the-art 5,300-seat soccer-specific stadium, Tormenta Stadium.  Obviously the team will want to win in their last home match of the season, as well as their last home match in this stadium.  Tormenta has only lost one match in their last five, as well as having only lost one match in their last five home matches.  South Georgia is a club that looks quite a bit different from where they started this season.  In their first 12 matches, they lost 7 of them.  The second half of the season saw them only lose 4.  This is due in part to ten goals from forward Marco Micaletto (currently 3^rd in the Golden Boot race) and five assists from midfielder Luca Mayr-Fälten.  It’s also worth pointing out the Mayr-Fälten is the top creator in the league for crosses and chances.  Fortunately for Búhos Nation, key producer and forward Azaad Liadi will have to sit out tonight’s match, after accumulating yellow cards.  Liadi has five assists this season and has scored a goal in each of their last four matches.  The club currently sits in seventh place and only has three matches left in the season, all of which are on the road.  They’ll need to collect every point they can if they want to get into the playoffs.  Other teams in the standings have a couple of games in hand, so it could spell danger for Tormenta if they lose tonight and see their counterparts gain points.

            Union Omaha looks to shake off the FC Tucson match from last weekend.  They would have loved to add a point, or three, in the standings, especially since first-place Chattanooga lost on the same night.  There’s still plenty of time left in the season to add points, create space between themselves and third place, and even overtake Chattanooga.  In order to do so, the defense and midfield will have to stay compact, communicate, and limit touches for both Mayr-Fälten and Micaletto.  It seems as though their entire offense runs through these two (when Azaad is sitting on the bench).  If Mayr-Fälten is given the opportunity, he’s going to cross balls into the box time and time again.  There will have to be numbers in the box to win the aerial challenges and to start the attack on the ground.  The Owls had a good ground game last week, so hopefully we’ll see more possession and passes as the team moves up the field.  Union Omaha is only two points away from Chattanooga and five points ahead of FC Tucson.  A win tonight would go a long way toward securing a first-round bye in the playoffs and possibly home field advantage.

            Thank you so much, Búhos Nation, for coming out to Morrison Stadium last weekend.  It was great to see so many people in the stands.  The presence of the fans made it tough for FC Tucson, as they told fans after the match.  We want Omaha to be a tough place to play and the fans help to create that atmosphere, so great job.  If this article isn’t enough to get you ready for tonight’s match, make sure that you check out the latest episode of the Who Gives A Hoot? podcast.  It was released this morning and features Luke and Ryan discussing a little bit of Ajax results, last weekend’s match, and a preview of tonight’s match, as well.  Feel free to contact us on social media with any questions or comments.  We’d love to hear from you.  Enjoy tonight’s match, wherever you happen to watch it.  ¡Viva Búhos!

Saturday night lived up to nearly all expectations, minus the final score and the referees.  Morrison Stadium, home of the Creighton Blue Jays, played host for the night and 3,741 fans showed up for the incredible experience.  The stadium looked great, the atmosphere was passionately vocal, and the match was hard fought between Union Omaha and FC Tucson.  The visitors left town with three points after defeating Union Omaha 1-0 and climbed closer in the standings to the Owls for a first-round bye.  The play on the field was tense and physical, which created a lot of problems tactically for both teams, as well as the referee, who wasn’t the greatest at keeping play safe for the players, but we’ll get into that in a bit.

            Union Omaha, dressed in their black jerseys, black shorts, and lightning yellow socks, opened the match with the kickoff.  Playing in the traditional 4-4-2 formation (4 defenders, 4 midfielders, and 2 forwards), the team looked to expose the backline right from the get-go.  It’s a good way to set the tone, see if there are mismatches that can be exposed, take advantage of an early defensive error, and put the opposition on their heels.  The first attempts were easily turned over, but with starting forwards like Evan Conway and Greg Hurst, it doesn’t hurt to keep trying that tactic.

            Once FC Tucson gained control, you could see the players spread out to the edges of the field.  They had done their preparation, saw how the Owls move their players, and knew to open the field for better possessions.  Both clubs were employing the same tactic: if you have the ball, make the field as big as you can.  If you don’t, do what you can to make it as small as possible.  When Tucson had possession, they were also able to evade early pressure by moving the ball quickly, ensuring the Owls had more field to cover.  They tried to send deep lobs up the field as well, but Union Omaha’s defense was well-posted inside the center circle.  As you can see in the video below, the FC Tucson goalkeeper received a drop pass and decided to lob the ball straight up the middle of the field.  It was collected by Union Omaha’s defense because they had four players inside the center circle at the time the ball landed.  FC Tucson only had two inside the circle at the same moment.  The Owls happily accepted the gift and started a new attack.

            In the fifth minute of the match, everything changed.  FC Tucson had possession of the ball and completed a series of passes along the right flank, properly utilizing the middle when needing to escape a defender.  Eventually, FC Tucson right back Noah Franke received a pass toward the right corner, one-touched the ball into the box, and suddenly FC Tucson left midfielder Joao Delgado was scene rolling in the box.  The referee called for a penalty kick after spotting Union Omaha defender Ferrety Sousa clashing with Delgado in the box.  It all happened so quickly and the ESPN+ broadcast doesn’t give a good angle on the instance.  Seeing it live was just as tough, too.  The play was developing so quickly and there were a lot of players entering the box.  At any rate, the penalty was called and FC Tucson right midfielder Charlie Dennis collected the ball and made his way to the dot.  After the whistle, Dennis kicked the ball about chest-high to the right, but Union Omaha goalkeeper Rashid Nuhu dove low and to his right as well, opposite of the kick.  FC Tucson had the early lead and Union Omaha would have to scratch and claw for the remainder of the match to level the score.

            After the ensuing kickoff, Union Omaha maintained possession of the ball, but completely lost track of the middle of the field.  The team was able to drop the ball, swing it to the left side, and get a pass into Tucson’s half, but quickly had to resort to dropping the ball again.  In the start of the video, you’ll see Union Omaha midfielder Emir Alihodžić fire a pass to Evan Conway.  Immediately to his left is a swath of land to take advantage of, but he’s under pressure and sees teammate JP Scearce ready for a drop pass and sends it to him.  There wasn’t much of a Tucson presence in that open space, but by the time a probing pass was sent to Devin Boyce, the Tucson defense had reset and pressured Boyce enough to make him drop the ball again.  A quick pass to Sousa on the right sideline was made with the hopes of getting the ball into the corner, but a very tight Tucson triangle forced the pass backwards yet again.  At around 7:26 on the time clock, you’ll see Damiá Viader receive a pass on the left side.  He is very quickly double-teamed, shepherded to the outside, and eventually loses the ball.  When he initially receives the pass, the wide open territory opens again and there’s no support for a pass.  This was a combination of too many players getting sucked up to the front line of attack, the central midfielders sitting back too far, and no one recognizing the opportunity presented.  Unfortunately, this was a recurring theme throughout the match, which you’ll see later.

            It didn’t take long for things to get heated between the two sides.  In the 11^th minute, Emir Alihodžić was involved in a physical challenge, leaving him on the ground and out of the play.  Not even five seconds later, another challenge happened within ten yards of Alihodžić.  This time, FC Tucson center forward Giovanni Calixtro was left on the ground.  Center referee Jervis Atagana quickly called the play dead and gave a yellow that ultimately went to Conor Doyle, but the crowding of bodies around Calixtro turned into shoves from both sides.  This was the beginning of a long night for Atagana.

            The next few offensive opportunities for Union Omaha were long balls to the front line.  With every aerial challenge came a turnover.  It was becoming clear that the long-ball routine was not going to work on a routine basis.  FC Tucson already had the lead, had already switched to a defensive formation, and had no reason to get sucked up the field.  They were in preservation mode.  The Tucson defense would need to be coaxed out of position before a viable long ball was to happen.  Fortunately for Union Omaha, their ground game was looking much better and providing opportunities.

            In the video below, you’ll see Evan Conway receive a pass from Conor Doyle after a rough challenge.  He’ll turn inside, look for options, and ultimately drop back to Damiá Viader.  No stranger to taking defenses 1-on-1, Viader dribbled right at three defenders before threading a pass to Devin Boyce.  Greg Hurst was just starting his run when Boyce sent the thru-ball to him.  The Assistant Referee on the far sideline called Hurst offside and play was restarted with an FC Tucson free kick.  This was a good display of the offense because they were able to keep the ball on the ground, show a different threat in their arsenal, and give FC Tucson something extra to worry about when in their own third of the field.

            Not too long after Greg Hurst was called offside, another one of his runs was called offside, but in this case, he was onside.  As you can see in the video below, when Devin Boyce kicks the ball, Hurst is still angling his run.  With the goalkeeper still in his box, the second-to-last defender is #4, Luca Mastrantonio.  You’ll see that he is rushing toward the half line because he knows he has a chance to catch Hurst offside.  With the counter-motion between the players, the space that Hurst creates makes him look as though he is offside, when he timed his run perfectly.  He began his run parallel to the defensive line to gain some speed, turned downfield at just the right moment, created space and separation from defenders, and play should have been allowed to continue.  Hurst was robbed of an obvious goal-scoring opportunity.

            Here’s another possession from Union Omaha where there was no support in the middle, whatsoever.  As the ball is passed to JP Scearce in the middle, he’ll start dribbling towards the left side of the field and pass to teammate Illal Osumanu.  If you look in the middle of the field, no one is there.  You can see players attempting to stretch the Tucson backline, but there is no support in the middle.  The result of the play is Damiá Viader getting pinned along the left sideline and forcing a cross toward the top of Tucson’s penalty area.  In the vicinity of the ball are two Union Omaha players and four FC Tucson defenders.  The ball was cleared away before becoming too much of a threat.

            Union Omaha had a good chance on goal in the 33^rd minute.  Rashid Nuhu punted the ball up the field and the Owls eventually gained possession after a series of aerial challenges.  Damiá Viader dribbled the ball into Tucson’s half and fed a long pass to Greg Hurst, who one-touched the ball past the last field defender and Evan Conway was there to take it in stride.  He had one defender following closely behind, cut the ball back enabling him to lose the defender, and took a shot from the top of Tucson’s penalty area, but it went just over the crossbar.

            Immediately after, FC Tucson goalkeeper was issued a verbal warning for time-wasting.  It was a bit surprising to see Tucson employing such a tactic so early in the match, but like I said earlier: they were in preservation mode.  It’s one of the more frustrating aspects of soccer and leads to a lot of the negative stereotypes related to the sport.  Whether it’s feigning an injury, deciding to tie your cleats or adjust your shin guards before a free kick, launching a ball well out of play before play is restarted, being indecisive before throwing the ball back into play, or multiple players crowding a referee to argue a call, teams will employ all kinds of methods to delay play, eat up the clock, take the other team out of their rhythm, and bring an end to the match sooner than the opposition would like.  A lot of people will criticize soccer for all of the fake injuries, but they may not understand the gamesmanship involved.  It’s not an attractive side of the sport and, unfortunately, there doesn’t seem to be anything being done by any governing bodies to combat the issue.  It’s a decidedly tough issue to combat because you don’t want to accuse someone of faking an injury when they actually did suffer an injury.  The referees can try to approximate how much time was wasted and tack it onto the end of the half and match for stoppage time, but those estimations may not always be accurate and the rhythm of play has already been disrupted.

            By the time the halftime whistle was blown, Union Omaha fans inside of Morrison Stadium had become frustrated with the perceived imbalance of calls between the two sides.  It wasn’t just the quantity, or lack thereof, it was also the quality and severity of the calls or missed calls.  The teams were walking to their respective locker rooms, but as the referee crew made their way off the field, the boo-birds sang loudly in their general direction.

            FC Tucson started the second half and looked to settle back into the same game plan after gaining the lead.  The team’s focus was mostly about maintaining possession while getting the ball into Union Omaha’s half very quickly.  This strategy certainly lent the Owls more possession and offensive opportunities.  It’s all a matter of whether or not Union Omaha would be able to take advantage of those opportunities.

            The first opportunity came in the 53^rd, when Damiá Viader received a pass inside Tucson’s half on the right side of the field, cut inside, and was able to find Devin Boyce for a short pass.  Boyce continued that idea by dribbling toward the middle and threading a ball into the right side of Tucson’s penalty area for Greg Hurst.  While running inside the penalty area, Greg Hurst’s left wrist was grabbed by FC Tucson defender Kaelon Fox.  He continued to hold onto Hurst’s wrist for about five steps.  This is a clear and obvious foul inside the penalty area, which should have resulted in a penalty kick for Union Omaha.  Watching the replay doesn’t provide a clear image of where the center referee was positioned at the time of the foul, but there is reason to suspect that multiple bodies were in the way.  That being said, the Assistant Referee on the near sideline had a clear view of the action and should have made the call, as well.

            In my teenage years, I was a referee for several years and I can say from experience, there are people who are assigned the duty of Center Referee who do not want input on fouls from their Assistant Referee’s (AR), especially if the foul occurs in the penalty area.  They don’t want to have to worry about what the ARs are calling, being forced to wave off their call, looking like the bad guy, and having parents even more angry with them.  Now take this with a grain of salt because the referees that took the field on Saturday night are far above where I ended up, may have a different list of protocol to follow, and the Assistant Referees may not be granted this level of decision making.  I wasn’t in the locker room with the referees before the match, I never heard any of their discussions and/or instructions to one another, and don’t know what their governing body tells them to do.

            So anyways, Greg Hurst and the would-be Owl’s penalty-taker missed out on another chance to even the score line.

            The next quality opportunity on goal for Union Omaha came in the 59^th minute.  Devin Boyce received a pass inside the center circle and saw the perfect opportunity to chip the ball over the defense and give Conor Doyle a shot on goal.  Boyce executed a great chip to an open Doyle, but the following shot when way over the crossbar.  The build-up play was good – the passes were crisp, teammates were open, and the ball was methodically moved up the field.

            Most of the second half consisted of Union Omaha offensive opportunities that were easily cleared and the continuation of the “testosterone match” between the sides.  Every soccer player has been there.  You’re angry at a player, or players, on the other side of the ball and want to muscle them around a bit.  You start to turn your focus away from playing the ball and try to get physical with the other team, while still at some level playing the sport.  It muddies up the game, takes attention away from playing the sport technically and cleanly, and puts players at risk for bodily harm.  If players feel that they can exert that level of force on another player without being called for a foul, then the cycle will continue.  Once players feel that they’ve been granted this level of freedom, the referee has lost control of the match.  Getting the match back under control is very difficult for the referee because they’ve already established their level of acceptance towards physicality.  To go back on that would bring questions to the consistency of their decisions.

            Unfortunately, this unnecessary level of physicality led to another incident inside of FC Tucson’s penalty area.  Near the right corner, Ferrety Sousa throws the ball to Devin Boyce, who is standing inside of the penalty area.  His first touch leads him toward the goal line and Tucson midfielder Mohamed Kone throws his arm into Devin Boyce’s head.  As you watch the video, take note that Kone never made an attempt to play the ball.  His entire focus was on eliminating Boyce from the remainder of the play.  Kone’s actions are careless and reckless, which falls under the definition of a direct kick in the box (otherwise known as a penalty kick).  I’ve included a screenshot of the exact page of the FIFA Law Book as a reference.  You can find it under the video directly below.

            I’ll say it here and leave the subject alone.  Center referee Jervis Atagana’s decision making during this match was very poor.  He allowed conditions to progress to the point where players were facing injuries.  In a day and age where head injuries are being monitored closely, Atagana showed no regard for Boyce’s health and safety in that situation.  His inability to control the match was a disservice to both clubs, the fans, and the sport.  I hope he is put under review and re-educated on the laws of the game.  If not, his superiors are willfully accepting the risk of bodily harm on players in future matches in which he is assigned to officiate.

            It wasn’t until the 82^nd minute when Union Omaha correctly received a penalty kick.  FC Tucson had just launched a goal kick toward the half line and Conor Doyle collected the 50/50 ball.  As he looked downfield, he saw the slimmest of passing lanes leading Evan Conway into the penalty area.  Conway took his defender 1-on-1 and was tripped inside of the box.  This was an easy call for the center referee to make.

            Damiá Viader was the man to take the penalty kick, but before a little more gamesmanship from FC Tucson.  As the other players line up around the 18-yard box, they cannot enter the arc at the top of the box, as well.  Tucson players took advantage of the moment, treading just inside of the restricted areas.  The center referee had to call attention to their placement, take time away from the penalty kick to explain this to the players, and leave Viader standing in position for those extra seconds.  Basically, it’s soccer’s version of “icing the kicker.”

            When Viader took the shot, he aimed for the right side of the goal.  FC Tucson goalkeeper was out of reach, but the ball hit the right post, glanced off of the goalie’s leg, and went out of bounds for a Union Omaha corner kick.

            The only remaining chance on goal for Union Omaha came in the 90’+3 (three minutes into stoppage time).  As FC Tucson tried to clear the ball, it bounced straight to Conor Doyle’s position and he ripped it off the bounce, but the ball went wide.  For half of a heartbeat, there was a glimmer of hope watching that ball on route to the net.  The Owls spent the remainder of stoppage time scrambling to produce another chance, but it never came to fruition.

            Union Omaha should have had three penalty kicks and were robbed of a breakaway, but they had several other chances to take care of business.  It’s perfectly reasonable to be angry with the referees, but the Owls did have their chances to determine their own destiny.  Putting the entire loss on the backs of the referees is more of an emotional response than a logical one.  This Saturday, Union Omaha travels to South Georgia Tormenta before having five straight home matches.  There are plenty of points to earn and excitement to watch, so stay tuned to Union Omaha and USL League One action.  The playoffs are just around the corner.

            I don’t know if you saw the Data Dump earlier this week, but Ben, and awesome sidekick Tim, put out a good article with plenty of statistics to read.  There was also a new episode of the podcast released today.  We here at Who Gives A Hoot Media are working hard to make sure you’re getting the best information and plenty of entertainment along the way, as well.  Whether it’s the podcast, the articles, or the social media posts, we’ve got you covered for all things Union Omaha, with a dash of USL League One information here and there.  Thank you for your continued loyalty to us.  Do you have a question that you’d like us to answer?  Feel free to send it our way and we’ll do our best to keep you informed.  Do you have any ideas for articles or features in the podcast?  Let us know those, as well.  We’re here for you, so if it’s something we can manage, we’ll make it work.

Well that was interesting. Morrison Stadium was alive and vibrant in a way Werner Park has maybe never been, but I’m not convinced I want to go back after the results. I’ve got a crazy week, so let’s dive in!

1) The good.

Sure, we lost this game BUT we did that despite:

• Possession: 58.5% – season high
• Crosses: 27 – T-2nd most on the season
• Opponents Chances: 3 – T-Lowest on the Season (at Tucson 7/24)
• Passing accuracy: 83.6% – season high
• Our xG: 2.30 – 2nd most on the season (0.01 less than home to NTSC 7/31)
• Our xG minus Opponents xG: 1.15 – 3rd highest on the season

Those are all really good stats and, to me, prove what a stout job of defending Tucson did in this game.

2) The ignoble.

The missed penalty hurt us. Sure you never want to rely on a penalty to earn points, but you often assume that when you get one, you are going to score. Interestingly enough, that’s not quite true. I found some research that indicates the global make rate is around 75.49% of penalties go in. (The research is here and has data by zodiac signs as well, so feel free to take with a grain of salt.) This was the clubs first miss on 4 attempts in regular and preseason games.

Also, according to this research we’ve witnessed the rarest type of penalty miss: hitting the post which occurs in around 2.87% of penalties. So…hooray?

3) Guest post from Timothy aka Ranting Blue Penguin: Fouling the Owls

Physicality is a part of soccer.  It’s not just a matter of trying to get every advantage you can, but eventually, you get into the mind of your opponent.  Living rent free inside your opposite number’s head is a prime way to make sure that they don’t get to play their game.  This is especially true if the referees are allowing it to go on.

This isn’t designed to be a rant on the referee’s though (that could come later and fill volumes).  Instead, I wanted to take a very quick surface look at the effect of fouling on the team this year.  

It’s worth noting, before we get started, that simply looking at foul numbers isn’t going to be a perfect identifier of a physical game.  Advantage numbers aren’t tallied into the stats. Nor does it identify touchy fouls or no-calls.  It obviously doesn’t account for really hard, but fair, challenges that can have an effect on a player’s thought process going forward.

However, over the course of a match, foul tally can provide an indicator of how physical a match is.  (Eventually, the referee has to call something, right?)  So despite the imperfections, I wanted to look at this as a potential indicator–and maybe something to watch for the next time we’re in a physical match.

I started out by looking back at all of our matches for the year from the USL1 League website.  The only matches not indicated are our abandoned match with Madison (no official stats). In the 21 matches, I looked at our opponent’s called fouls vs. our called fouls and came up with this:

Opponent	Date	Home/Away	Opp. Fouls	UO Fouls
TUC	7/24/2021	A	23	18
TRM	4/24/2021	H	17	23
CHA	8/21/2021	A	17	19
TUC	9/25/2021	H	17	15
TUC	8/14/2021	A	17	14
NC	9/4/2021	A	15	11
MAD	5/26/2021	A	13	12
MAD	7/16/2021	H	13	13
NTX	8/28/2021	H	13	10
NTX	9/19/2021	A	13	10
RIC	6/19/2021	A	12	16
TUC	6/26/2021	H	12	17
TFC2	9/11/2021	H	11	16
NE2	5/12/2021	A	10	14
MAD	6/6/2021	A	10	18
CHA	7/3/2021	H	9	14
NTX	7/31/2021	H	9	10
NE2	6/12/2021	H	8	13
FTL	5/7/2021	A	7	9
TFC2	6/2/2021	A	6	10
GVL	5/16/2021	A	5	16

You’ll notice, there are only 7 times out of 21 that our opponents out-fouled us:  

Opponent	Date	Home/Away	Opp. Fouls	UO Fouls
TUC	7/24/2021	A	23	18
TUC	9/25/2021	H	17	15
TUC	8/14/2021	A	17	14
NC	9/4/2021	A	15	11
MAD	5/26/2021	A	13	12
NTX	8/28/2021	H	13	10
NTX	9/19/2021	A	13	10

In those matches, UO is 3-2-2, but those matches include 2 of our three losses (Home to Tucson, Away to Madison), as well as 3 of our 4 shutouts on the year (Home to Tucson, Away to Madison, and a Home Draw with North Texas).  

Our shot totals seem to go lower as well.  In those 7 matches, we have a total of 82 shots (11.7 per match) with 24 on target for a 29.3% accuracy rate and 9 goals (1.28 per match).  In our other matches, we have 189 shots (13.5 per match), with 61 of those on target for a 32.3% accuracy rate and 20 goals (1.43 per match).  Those totals sound negligible, but every little bit helps over the course of a season.

To wrap this foul data up, I also noticed one final trend.  Even when UO out-fouls (or is even), they are 4-3-3 when the opponent is called for 13 or more fouls.  In those matches, we have 116 shots, 34 on target (31.9% accuracy) with 11 goals (1.1 per match) and all four of our shutouts.  UO is 6-0-5 with 155 shots, 51 on target (32.9%) with 17 goals (1.55 per match) when the opponent has 12 or less fouls.

None of this data is conclusive to anything, of course.  Physical games aren’t necessarily measured in the fouls called. And the Owls always fight hard, with passion, and don’t back down from anyone. However, it’s worth monitoring the next time we play a physical team.  Frustration is often evident. It’s possible that some in the league have figured out that the fire that drives our team can also be the key to its undoing.

Stats compiled from a week-by-week pull at https://www.uslleagueone.com/league-scores, accessed 26 Sep 21

Special thanks to Tim! I’ll be traveling next week so I’ll see you when I see you!

Union Omaha (10-8-2, 2^nd Place) vs. FC Tucson (8-6-8, 4^th Place)

Morrison Stadium, Omaha, Nebraska

7 PM (CST), ESPN+

            It’s game day, Búhos fans!  We’ve been excitedly promoting this match for a while now and the day has finally come.  From the sounds of it, there’s going to be a healthy crowd filing into Morrison Stadium.  With all of the buzz surrounding the match, the atmosphere should be electric.  The team store was teasing limited-edition merchandise and even Parliament was slipping a bit of info into the ether about a possible surprise.  There are great things on the way, but let’s focus in on the match ahead.

            This week’s opponent is FC Tucson, the team that was sitting in 11^th place at the end of August.  Now we’re at the end of September, they’ve played four matches, earned ten points, and they’re suddenly up to fourth place.  They haven’t lost a match since August 14^th, the last time these two clubs met.  That kind of transformation is rare at a club, but whatever they’re doing is working.  They’ve scored the most goals, the highest conversion rate from shots to goals, and are tied for third with passing accuracy.  It’s amazing what they’ve managed to do and change so quickly.  Fortunately for Union Omaha, they still have the same problems plaguing them: a soft defense and predictable ball movement on offense.

            After watching footage from previous matches, against Union Omaha and as a whole, they have several problems on defense.  First off, they aren’t given sufficient support most of the time because the midfielders get sucked up too high with the forwards.  Because of that, opposition routinely slips personnel behind the midfield and wait for the play into transition.  The backline also sets their line too far back, further enabling the opposing offense to take advantage of the defense.  FC Tucson is extremely susceptible to the fast break and match footage shows it time after time.  When in 1v1 situations, the defenders seem more focused on holding the opposition and delaying for numbers to get back.  The defenders don’t stab at the ball all that often and look hesitant to get physical with the attacker.  I haven’t found a whole lot of footage of their goalie going horizontal, either.  It’s almost as if he knows that shots are out of reach and simply doesn’t feel the need to dive for it.  Once the defense gains possession of the ball, that’s when their other batch of problems begins.

            Most of their attacks develop from the right flank.  They tend to bring the ball into the opposing final third, dribble right to the top of the 18-yard box, and turn inside to look for options in the middle.  Even after they turn inside, more often than not, they keep the ball on the ground.  They have their fair share of crosses, but with the numbers moving up the field as quickly as they do, they seem to have more options by means of a simple pass.  One thing they do well on offense, and could cause trouble for the Union Omaha defense, is how the stagger their runs into the opposing third.  By not holding their positional lines as they move up the field, defenders have to keep checking for another runner into the box or up the flank.  FC Tucson has scored a number of their goals by delaying their just long enough to pick up the rebound or deflection and have a second chance on goal.  We saw a well-disciplined Union Omaha defense last week, so hopefully they are up to the challenge again on Saturday night.

            Union Omaha looks to continue their momentum toward the playoffs and earn the home field advantage throughout.  The Owls currently sit two points behind first-placed Chattanooga Red Wolves, but have two games in hand.  In eight home matches, Union Omaha has only allowed six goals.  That’s a testament to the discipline and teamwork from top to bottom.  The offense had some neat tactics up their sleeve to punish North Texas.  Coach Jay Mims and his assistants are doing a great job of training the team, installing new ideas, and preparing for the next opponent.

            The Owls will need to keep that discipline alive, especially on defense.  The team has done a good job of getting back quickly and same liveliness will be required against the speedy FC Tucson offense.  When I was watching the footage, I didn’t notice a lot of teams loading numbers in the area near the ball, which resulted in more freedom for the attacker.  If Union Omaha can do that again Saturday night, they’ll be limiting FC Tucson a lot while in transition.  We saw how well it worked against North Texas SC.  This is a new chapter to the one-sided history, so I’m curious as to what tactics they’ll bring to Morrison Stadium.

            These two clubs have on five occasions in the past and Union Omaha won every single one of them.  The Owls have collected three wins against them this year and two last year.  The overall aggregate is 8-3 for Union Omaha.  So far this season, FC Tucson has only scored one goal on the Owls.  When Tucson plays on the road, they average just about two goals scored and two goals conceded.  There’s reason to believe there could be multiple goals, but this match could just as easily become a chippy affair.  Both clubs are in the top 5 for fouls conceded and they’ve been awarded 13 more yellow cards than Union Omaha this season.  This could turn out to be quite an interesting match, full of drama.

            If you haven’t picked up on my excitement for Saturday’s match, then I’ll be completely transparent: Saturday night is going to be such a wild night.  You should plan on being there because who knows when Union Omaha is going to play a home match in a soccer-specific stadium again?  The weather is going to be beautiful, too.  Oh yeah, and make sure to head over to The Session Room at 4 PM.  There’s going to be a big hangout with Búhos fans, good drinks, and delicious tacos, too.  Bring your friends, bring your family, and let’s cheer Union Omaha on to victory.  ¡Viva Búhos and see you at the stadium!

            Welcome to Week 25, Búhos nation.  There’s only five weeks left in the regular season and the playoff race is heating up.  USL League One has five matches this weekend and each has its own set of intrigue.  Before we jump into the match previews, let’s take a look at the standings:

	Club	Mov’t	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1.	Chattanooga	↑1	22	10	10	2	32	21	11	40
2.	Union Omaha	↓1	20	10	8	2	28	15	13	38
3.	Greenville	–	22	8	7	7	30	28	2	31
4.	FC Tucson	–	22	8	6	8	34	33	1	30
5.	Tormenta	–	24	8	5	11	31	35	-4	29
6.	New England II	↑3	21	8	4	9	29	32	-3	28
7.	Forward Madison	↓1	20	6	10	4	23	23	0	28
8.	Ft. Lauderdale	↓1	23	7	6	10	33	38	-5	27
9.	North Texas	↓1	22	6	9	7	30	28	2	27
10.	Toronto FC II	↑1	22	6	8	8	26	28	-2	26
11.	Richmond	↓1	21	6	7	8	25	27	-2	25
12.	North Carolina FC	–	21	5	4	12	24	37	-13	19

Mov’t – Movement in the standings from Week 24 to Week 25.

MP – Matches played

MATCH 1

Richmond Kickers (6-7-8, 11^th Place) vs Toronto FC II (6-8-8, 10^th Place)

City Stadium, Richmond, Virginia

Saturday, September 25^th @ 5:30 (CST)

            Their stats in the leaderboard to show much of a difference between the clubs, but once you look a little deeper, their identities really start to show themselves.  Toronto is winless in their last five, but don’t start to count them out of contention for this match, or the playoffs.  The Young Reds just finished a tough run in the schedule, facing the top three clubs in consecutive weeks.  With the help of recent loan Jacob Shaffelburg, this club is looking to right the ship and make a run for the playoffs.  Toronto FC II is a equipped with a squad to leaving you chasing their passes for the entire match.  The team ranks 1^st in overall passes, is also tied for 1^st in passing accuracy, and has playmakers like Garrett McLaughlin, Luca Petrasso, and Kobe Franklin to give opponents headaches.

            There’s no sleeping on Richmond, either.  The Kickers have a golden boot contender, Emiliano Terzaghi, and a golden glove contender, Akira Fitzgerald, on their roster.  Getting the ball past Fitzgerald is hard enough, but then you have to think of the two defensive stalwarts: Ivan Magalhães and Jalen Crisler.  Together, they’ve cleared over 160 threats and currently sit in third and fourth, respectively, in clearances in the league.  Moving up the field, midfielder Zacarías Correa is the chance creator for the club.  He may play defense, but Nil Vinyals is a close second for chances created for the Kickers.  And don’t even start to think the threats end on the field.  The Richmond Kickers regularly draw healthy crowds to their matches and make some noise, too.

Three reasons why the Richmond Kickers will win:

1. In ten home matches this season, they conceded a total of 9 goals.
2. Their only loss at home came on April 24^th.  The club is undefeated at home beyond that loss.
3. Emiliano Terzaghi.  The man is not only a threat with his goals (12 on the season), but also his physicality (7 yellow cards) and his ability to draw defenders out of position and open up the field for his teammates.

Three reasons why Toronto FC II will win:

1. In the two previous matches between these two clubs at City Stadium, Toronto FC II is undefeated.
2. The last time Richmond defeated Toronto FC II was back on July 26^th, 2019.
3. Richmond’s last win at home this season was July 31^st, almost two months ago.

This match will be interesting to watch because both clubs are looking to jumpstart their hopeful runs to the playoffs.  Both have a legitimate chance, but three points starting now are must-haves. 

MATCH 2

Chattanooga Red Wolves (10-10-2, 1^st Place) vs New England Revolution II (8-4-9, 6^th Place)

CHI Memorial Stadium, Chattanooga, Tennessee

Saturday, September 25^th @ 6 PM (CST)

            Remember that time that one team returned home from a match earlier this season in Chattanooga with three points?  Me neither.  The Red Wolves are ferocious at home.  If any club hopes to defeat Chattanooga at home, they can’t just bring their A-game.  They have to bring the A-game’s A-game.  With six matches left to their season, two at home (including the match this Saturday), and Union Omaha right on their heels, you can bet they’ll come out swinging.  Chattanooga wants home field advantage in the playoffs and they need widen that lead on Union Omaha to do so.  Don’t be surprised if future commercials for the Baby Revs feature Sarah McLachlan’s songs.

            If this is a David vs. Goliath type of a match, then New England is happy to call themselves Goliath, even if you won’t.  The Baby Revs have seven clean sheets so far this season, tied for second in the league.  These guys also like to shoot a lot.  The club leads the league in shots (306).  They’re also ranked fourth in passing, tied for third in passing accuracy, and have tallied the highest amount of successful dribbles in the league.  Just like their moniker suggests, they’re a militia hell bent on bring guerilla warfare to the soccer field.  They’re going to keep the ball on the ground, suffocate the opposition with their possession, use all areas of the field, and pepper the goal with shots.  New England currently sits on the fringe of playoff contention and don’t want their last season in League One to end unceremoniously.  Move aside doubters because they’re only looking for bettors.

Three reasons why Chattanooga will win:

1. The Red Wolves average a goal against them at home.  Teams have only scored more than one goal against them on two occasions while at home, as well.  On attack, Chattanooga has nearly doubled opposing goals across all home matches.
2. In three previous meetings between the two clubs, New England II has never defeated Chattanooga.  The Red Wolves have nearly tripled New England’s goal count (8-3) across those matches, too.
3. The Baby Revs haven’t won on the road in 98 days.  They also have more losses on the road than wins and draws combined.  That’s means only 8 out of a possible 27 points on the road.

Three reasons why New England will win:

1. Chattanooga isn’t exactly stellar against teams that like to pass the ball.  Here are the top five passing clubs in the league: Toronto FC II, Tormenta, Ft. Lauderdale, New England II, and Forward Madison.  Chattanooga has played these teams seven times so far this season.  Their record: two wins, four draws, and one loss.
2. It’s no secret that Chattanooga likes to cross the ball.  They rank fourth in the league in successful crosses.  New England II, however, likes to win aerial duels.  When looking at defenders who have played in ten or more matches this season, they’ve won nearly two-thirds (64%) of their aerial duels.  Couple that with the fact that New England goalkeeper Joseph Rice saves 72.3% of the shots on goal and you have a tough defense.
3. The Red Wolves rank first in fouls conceded and are tied for first in yellow cards received this season.  This will provide plenty of set pieces for New England II.  With as much possession and as many shots as the Baby Revs normally have in a match, this will simply be another weapon in their arsenal.

A match like this has all of the ingredients for an upset.  It will be interesting to see how each side planned for the match.  Both teams are hungry, so fans and viewers will certainly enjoy this one.

MATCH 3

Forward Madison (6-10-4, 7^th Place) vs. Greenville Triumph (8-7-7, 3^rd Place)

Breese Stevens Field, Madison, Wisconsin

Saturday, September 25^th @ 7 PM (CST)

            If you’re looking for a barn-burner, keep looking.  This one is going to be like an on-going card game of War: something good may happen from time to time, but a winner will seemingly never be decided.  In six matches between these two clubs, four ended in a draw.  The average goal count for both sides is less than a goal per match, as well.  Here’s the positive with a match like this: these two clubs are evenly matched and will show a lot of heart for the full 90 minutes.  Call me crazy, but I actually enjoy low-scoring affairs.  You get to see how each side changes their tactics.  I like watching two sides scrap and battle for every inch, every pass, and every shot on goal.  That builds the tension to the very end.

            Greenville seems to have one foot in the playoffs and they aren’t looking to share that comfort with anybody else, especially someone who decide what they’re going to the party.  The reigning champion hasn’t had the same season as last year, but that doesn’t mean their aspirations are any different.  They still have goal-scoring machine Marios Lomis, who is tied for first in goals this season.  Dallas Jaye, last year’s Golden Glove winner, is still minding the net for the Triumph and has five clean sheets to his name.  They are still a well-coached team and can achieve good results against high-ranking opponents.  In fact, the Triumph have played one of the current top-3 teams six times and only lost one of those matches (I’m including fourth-placed FC Tucson since Greenville is currently in third place).  As far as they’re concerned, they’re still the champion and they intend on keeping it that way.

            After Week 24, Forward Madison slipped under the playoff dividing line and they’re ready to wreak havoc in order to get back to the adults table.  Just like last season, they’ve established Breese Stevens Field as a formidable place for opponents to earn points.  Their passionate fan base show up and make noise for the whole match.  The club has only lost two matches at home.  The Flamingos are averaging a goal per home match, all while keeping the opponents average to less than a goal per home match.  They’re able to achieve this with all of their quality passing (fifth in the league for passing and tied for first in passing accuracy).  It doesn’t hurt having a tandem like Jake Keegan and Ryan Sierakowksi, either.

Three reasons why Greenville will win:

1. When playing on the road and the score is separated by a single goal, Greenville won 75% of those matches.
2. Half of Greenville’s clean sheets happened while the team was playing on the road.
3. These two clubs have been going head-to-head since 2019 and Forward Madison has yet to win a match.  Furthermore, the only goals that Forward Madison has scored in the series came in the same match, which ended up as a tie.

Three reasons why Forward Madison will win:

1. Aside from their loss to North Carolina FC on August 25^th, you’d have to go back to July 10^th to find their other, most recent loss.  The last time they lost at home was back in June.
2. Forward Madison is tied for second in the league for fewest goals conceded while playing at home.
3. Greenville has only scored one goal in Breese Stevens Field, back on August 28^th, 2019.

I think this will be the closest match of the weekend.  The true soccer fans inside Breese Stevens will be sitting on the edge of their seats.  That should be a fun atmosphere, riddled with anxiety, but still fun.

MATCH 4

North Carolina FC (5-4-2, 12^th Place) vs. North Texas SC (6-9-7, 9^th Place)

Sahlens Stadium at WakeMed Soccer Park, Cary, North Carolina

Sunday, September 26^th @ 1 PM (CST)

            What better way to end Week 25, than the last installment of “The Battle of the North’s”?  North Carolina FC has gone through quite the transformation as the season has progressed.  In their first five home matches, they only won one and lost four, with a goal differential of -4.  Their last five home matches have given them three wins and two losses, with a goal differential of 2.  This is a club that has earned respect and deserves careful planning from opposing clubs.  They may have the slimmest of chances to make the playoffs, but that allows them to be the spoiler.  You know who deserves spoiling?  The guys who don’t want to play in this league next year.

            North Texas gave Union Omaha quite the battle when they hosted the Owls last week.  The problem is they were the host.  At home, they’re a lion.  On the road, they’re a lamb.  They’ve played 11 matches as the away team and only won one of those matches.  Out of a possible 33 points, they’ve only managed to collect 7.  Want more stats?  I gotcha covered.  At home, they’ve scored 22 goals and conceded 10.  On the road, they’ve scored 8 goals and let in 18.  If North Texas wants to make the playoffs, they need to reverse their results on the road.  They only have three home matches and three away matches left in the season.  If all three of those away matches are losses, they don’t have a very good chance of playing past October.

Three reasons why North Carolina will win:

1. North Texas is winless in their last eight matches.  The only road win they’ve earned was back on August 7^th.
2. There have been six occasions where North Texas played a playoff team (top 6 in the league standings at the time) and then the week afterward, they would play a team below the playoff threshold.  Out of those six matches, North Texas only managed to win one.
3. North Texas has only scored two goals in their last five away matches.  They’ve been held scoreless in the last three away matches.

Three reasons why North Texas will win:

1. In the 10 home matches for North Carolina FC, their opponents are scoring, on average, two goals a match.
2. North Texas defeated North Carolina just over a month ago with a score of 4-0.
3. North Texas has played three matches on a Sunday, winning two of them.  In those three matches, they scored seven goals and only allowed three.

Well, I hope you all are excited for another great week of League One play.  Be on the look-out for the Union Omaha preview.  That should coming out in just a little bit.  Since you’re done reading this article, check out some of the other great material that Who Gives A Hoot has to offer.  A new episode of the podcast was released today, so go give that a listen.

            There are five weeks left in the USL League One regular season and a lot of people are wondering how the playoffs will look.  There are teams positioning themselves for a first round bye, many more teams fighting to stay in the hunt, and then there are the wayward ones who hope to become a blip on the radar before the final whistle blows in Week 29.  Below, I’ve done the math to sort out the playoff necessities and what their remaining strength of schedule looks like.  If you need a reference to the USL League One playoff format, you can find more information about tiebreakers, home field advantage, and more here.

            First off, let’s look at the current standings in League One:

	Club	Mov’t	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1.	Chattanooga	↑1	22	10	10	2	32	21	11	40
2.	Union Omaha	↓1	20	10	8	2	28	15	13	38
3.	Greenville	–	22	8	7	7	30	28	2	31
4.	FC Tucson	–	22	8	6	8	34	33	1	30
5.	Tormenta	–	24	8	5	11	31	35	-4	29
6.	New England II	↑3	21	8	4	9	29	32	-3	28
7.	Forward Madison	↓1	20	6	10	4	23	23	0	28
8.	Ft. Lauderdale	↓1	23	7	6	10	33	38	-5	27
9.	North Texas	↓1	22	6	9	7	30	28	2	27
10.	Toronto FC II	↑1	22	6	8	8	26	28	-2	26
11.	Richmond	↓1	21	6	7	8	25	27	-2	25
12.	North Carolina FC	–	21	5	4	12	24	37	-13	19

Mov’t – Movement in the standings from Week 24 to Week 25.

MP – Matches played
Pts – Points
MR – Matches remaining
HPPT – Highest Possible Points Total

            There’s a bit of a variation amongst the clubs as far as matches played.  In the remaining five weeks, some clubs will only have to play four matches, while others will have to double that count and play eight matches.  So even though you see South Georgia Tormenta in 5^th place, it doesn’t necessarily mean that’s where they’ll end up at the end of October.  Now that we have the current standings, we know that each club’s current point total is the absolute minimum that each club will have at the end of the season.  Next, let’s look at the highest number each club can earn and see how that affects the playoff picture.

	Club	MP	Pts	MR	HPPT
1.	Union Omaha	20	38	8	62
2.	Chattanooga	22	40	6	58
3.	Forward Madison	20	28	8	52
4.	Greenville	22	31	6	49
5.	New England II	21	28	7	49
6.	FC Tucson	22	30	6	48
7.	Richmond	21	25	7	46
8.	North Texas	22	27	6	45
9.	Toronto FC II	22	26	6	44
10.	Ft. Lauderdale	23	27	5	42
11.	Tormenta	24	29	4	41
12.	North Carolina FC	21	19	7	40

            This table is highly informative for many reasons.  First off, it shows the maximum number of points each club can earn by the end of the season.  It’s impossible for every club to reach their number because there will be losses and draws along the way.  If you start looking at the maximum points a club can earn, you can start to see the so-called “magic numbers.”  For instance, if Union Omaha wants to lock up home field advantage for the entirety of the playoffs, they need to earn 59 points or more, assuming Chattanooga wins the remainder of their matches.  If Union Omaha and Chattanooga want to secure a first-round bye in the playoffs, they have to earn 53 points or greater.  Since the highest point total that Forward Madison can achieve is 52, the top two teams simply have to earn more than 52 points to lock in those positions.  This works for the next four playoff positions, as well.  Since Richmond can earn a maximum point total of 46 points, if other teams want to secure a place in the playoffs, they need to earn 47 points or higher.  Next, let’s take a look at remaining strength of schedule.

            Each club will have their challenges through the end of October, but which clubs will have it easier, or harder, than the others?  Here’s a table with the average points earned per match for each club in League One.  I’ve gone the extra step to calculate the points earned per home match, as well as away matches.  This will come in handy in just a bit.

	Clubs	Overall Pts/match	Home Pts/match	Away Pts/match
1.	Union Omaha	1.90	2	1.83
2.	Chattanooga	1.82	2.17	1.40
3.	Greenville	1.41	1.46	1.36
4.	Forward Madison	1.40	1.73	1
5.	FC Tucson	1.36	1.55	1.18
6.	New England II	1.33	1.67	0.89
7.	North Texas	1.23	1.82	0.64
8.	Tormenta	1.21	1.39	1
9.	Richmond	1.19	1.70	0.73
10.	Toronto FC II	1.18	1.60	0.83
11.	Ft. Lauderdale	1.17	1.33	1
12.	North Carolina FC	0.91	1.2	0.64

            While this table shows you which club is averaging the most points per match overall, it also gives you insight as to how each club is performing at home and on the road.  Union Omaha may have the overall average (due to less matches played) and road average, but Chattanooga is outperforming at home.  Meanwhile, North Carolina FC finds itself at the bottom of each category (tied for last in the away category, but still).  Now that we have these numbers, it’s time to start jumping down the rabbit hole to start calculating that strength of schedule.

            Below is the table showing exactly how the strength of schedule was calculated.  Using the numbers in the previous table, we can piece together which club has the toughest road to the end of October.

            Alright, so that’s the dirty work.  As you look at each club, you’ll see their remaining schedule and the average amount of points earned by their opponent at home or on the road.  Instead of going off of the overall average, this gives us a better look into how each opponent performs, given the circumstances.  Some clubs have an advantage hosting their opponent because the visiting club has a lower average point total on the road.  I’ll include another table below to clean up the results and make it easier to read.

	Club	Opponent avg pt/match
1.	Forward Madison	1.59
2.	New England II	1.52
3.	Tormenta	1.48
4.	Greenville	1.37
5.	Richmond	1.37
6.	North Carolina FC	1.36
7.	Ft. Lauderdale	1.34
8.	Chattanooga	1.30
9.	North Texas	1.26
10	Toronto FC II	1.22
11.	Union Omaha	1.14
12.	FC Tucson	1.12

            Forward Madison looks to have a rough road ahead of them.  Their high number comes mostly from having to play five straight away games against teams who have fared well at home this season.  They finish off the season with back-to-back home games, but even those opponents are high in the playoff race.  FC Tucson looks to have the easiest road to the end of the regular season.  This is due in part to the fact that their four remaining home matches are against some of the clubs with the worst average points on the road.  As for the race to the top spot, it looks like Union Omaha has a slight advantage over Chattanooga.  If you’re looking for some drama in the middle of the table, keep an eye on Toronto FC II.  With an easier opponent load and four home matches, they could easily climb the table and make things interesting.

            I’ll keep you updated on the playoff race each week until the end of the regular season, so keep checking back for more reading material.  The playoff race is heating up, so make sure you keep up to date on all things Union Omaha related and maybe a dab of USL League One info here and there, too.