Meh, that was pretty lame game if I’m being honest. Probably because I woke up at 5am in Cancun, MX just to make it to that game (hashtag humblebrag). Kudos to Greenville to showing up and playing ugly enough soccer to steal a win and then celebrating like they actually care about the Big Green Belt. Shame on the referee for awarding a corner off someone’s hand in the box in the 89th minute. Instead of focusing too much on the game, I’m going to see if I can find some trends in the four losses we’ve had this season, so let’s dive in.

1) Time of Possession

We have talked a ton over the lifetime of the column about time of possession. It is commonly known, at least I think, that we seek to lose the possession battle in any given game. In the 2021 season, our losses have been the 1st (Greenville), 2nd (Tucson #2), 3rd (at Madison #1), and 13th (at Chattanooga) ranked games in Union Omaha time of possession. We have lost all 4 of those games 1-0. (Kind of impressive in its own right).

Result	Average Possession
Win:	44.0%
Draw:	45.0%
Loss:	55.7%

On average, we have 11 minutes and 14 seconds more of possession over a 96 minute game in our losses compared to our wins. Now let’s peek at results when winning or losing the possession battle:

Percent of Possession:	Points	Points per game
Under 50%:	41	2.05
Over 50%:	3	0.75

Ope, we’re still the same old Union Omaha.

2) Time of first goal.

Does the time of our opponent’s first goal affect our possession numbers?

Home	Away	Possession Percentage	Minute of Opponent’s Goal
Forward Madison	Union Omaha	51.1	58
Chattanooga	Union Omaha	45.6	79
Union Omaha	FC Tuscon	58.5	7
Union Omaha	Greenville	67.6	12

Not perfectly, but certainly recently, an early goal for our opponents has led to losses where we have a ton of possession.

3) Players being rotated?

With the decision to start a couple of converted midfielders at striker in this game the other thing I wanted to check was whether we were performing badly in games that had a big rotation. There were a lot of ways I could do this, but I chose a relatively simple way because of time constraints.

I believe our best XI, aka what I think Jay would roll out for a playoff game with everybody healthy, looks like this: Nuhu, Sousa, Illal, Knutson, Dami, Boyce, Scearce, Otenio, Doyle, Hurst, Conway. To measure our deviation from our best, I assessed each games starting lineup to see how many of those players were not starting (or playing in their ideal osition).

Home	Away	Missing Best XI	Missing Players
Forward Madison	Union Omaha	2	Conway, Otenio
Chattanooga	Union Omaha	5	Conway, Sousa, Osumanu, Knutson, Otenio (RB not MF)
Union Omaha	FC Tuscon	2	Knutson, Otenio
Union Omaha	Greenville	2	Conway, Hurst

In reviewing the chart, I learned nothing meaningful. Evan and Tobias appear a fair amount on the missing list, but we picked up plenty of points without those guys even seeing the bench this season. And I think including any of the rotated center backs is massively unfair because Jake and Blake have proven themselves to be MORE than capable of holding down the back line this season. And I would be equally confident with any of them (Knutson, Crull, Malone) playing next to Illal on the biggest stage.

I think it is hard to lump our losses in together which makes me both more and less confident going into the playoffs. On one hand, we’ve never lost starting our best XI. On the other hand, the last two losses have shown a blueprint to beat us: score early, park the bus, get lucky on a penalty (aka we miss or the misses an incredibly blatant handball in the box).

Instead of ending on a totally bleak note, let me end with a bonus data dump tidbit researched by based meme lord: Ranting Blue Penguin, aka Tim.

Bonus) New High Score Alert

I was stunned when I saw that we had 507 passes in our game against Greenville, those are “Congrats your team just held Barca to only X number of passes in your narrow Champions League defeat” numbers. Tim answered my call for assistance and did some game by game research on the league website to determine our previous season highs for passes were:

2020: 495 passes, vs Madison 8/19, Draw
2021: 478 passes, at Madison 5/26, Loss

I hope this record stands for a long time! Thanks again to Tim!

Union Omaha (11-8-3, 1^st place) vs. Ft. Lauderdale (7-6-11, 11^th place)

Werner Park, Papillion, Nebraska

7 PM (CDT), ESPN+

            After an emphatic 4-0 victory over South Georgia Tormenta last week, Union Omaha welcomes Fort Lauderdale CF to Omaha for a midweek match up in Week 27.  On the other side, Fort Lauderdale looks to rebound after a 0-1 loss to Greenville in South Carolina last Friday.  With only three matches remaining to their season after today, Fort Lauderdale needs a win today to stay in the hunt for the elusive playoffs.

            Darren Powell, the coach for Fort Lauderdale, is going to be looking for goal production from his squad this week – something that has been out of grasp over the past few matches.  Since September 4^th, the club has only managed to score two goals across four matches.  Forward Shaan Hundal, leading the team with seven goals so far this season, hasn’t lit up the scoreboard since a 4-2 victory over South Georgia Tormenta on August 28^th.  Left midfielder George Acosta has worked toward filling that gap, scoring three of the last six goals for his club, as well as leading the team in assists.  Acosta has also notched 37 chances created on this season, which is good enough to be tied for fifth in the league.  As a club, they’ve only managed a single victory in their last seven road matches.  They’ll need something special if that change is going to happen tonight.

            It seems worth noting that earlier this summer, Fort Lauderdale signed a duo of players with highly-recognizable last names in the world of soccer: Neville and Beckham.  Right back Harvey Neville, son of Manchester United’s Phil Neville, signed with the club back in May.  Not long afterward, forward Romeo Beckham, son of world-famous soccer player and movie inspirer David Beckham and former Spice Girl Victoria Beckham, made his debut with the club on September 20^th.

            Meanwhile, Union Omaha continues pushing toward cementing themselves as the top club in the regular season and earning home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  Assuming Chattanooga wins the rest of their regular season matches, the Owls will need to win four of their last six matches to earn the top seed in the playoffs.  While not taking their eye off of that prize, Union Omaha coach Jay Mims will have to be smart about load management down the stretch.  The Owls will be playing five matches over the next two-and-a-half weeks.  Luckily, all five of those matches will be at home, so no travel fatigue will be involved.

            Tonight will be the first home match for Union Omaha since they played at Morrison Stadium, so make sure to purchase a ticket and bring the same level of enthusiasm for your club.  Playoffs are only a few weeks away and the team could use all of your support from here on out.  On your way to the stadium, make sure to listen to the latest episode of the “Who Gives A Hoot?” podcast.  As usual, there will be a tailgate outside of Werner Park before the match, so feel free to stop by for food and beverages.  Parliament has some merchandise available for purchase before the match, so check out the latest designs.  With all of that said, have a wonderful match day and see you at the stadium.  ¡Viva Búhos!

Union Omaha (10-8-3, 2^nd Place) vs. South Georgia Tormenta (8-5-11, 7^th Place)

Erik Russell Park, Statesboro, Georgia

7 PM (CST), ESPN+

            Wow, this week really snuck up on me.  I hope your week has been a great one.  If not, you can start your weekend on the right foot.  It’s Week 25 and it’s matchday!  Union Omaha travels down to Georgia for a key match for both clubs.  When kickoff starts, make sure that you find yourself with your watch party, good food and beverages, and ready to cheer the Owls on to three points.

            South Georgia enters the week coming off of a bye week.  This match will also be Tormenta’s last match in Erk Russell Park, as the club builds a new, state-of-the-art 5,300-seat soccer-specific stadium, Tormenta Stadium.  Obviously the team will want to win in their last home match of the season, as well as their last home match in this stadium.  Tormenta has only lost one match in their last five, as well as having only lost one match in their last five home matches.  South Georgia is a club that looks quite a bit different from where they started this season.  In their first 12 matches, they lost 7 of them.  The second half of the season saw them only lose 4.  This is due in part to ten goals from forward Marco Micaletto (currently 3^rd in the Golden Boot race) and five assists from midfielder Luca Mayr-Fälten.  It’s also worth pointing out the Mayr-Fälten is the top creator in the league for crosses and chances.  Fortunately for Búhos Nation, key producer and forward Azaad Liadi will have to sit out tonight’s match, after accumulating yellow cards.  Liadi has five assists this season and has scored a goal in each of their last four matches.  The club currently sits in seventh place and only has three matches left in the season, all of which are on the road.  They’ll need to collect every point they can if they want to get into the playoffs.  Other teams in the standings have a couple of games in hand, so it could spell danger for Tormenta if they lose tonight and see their counterparts gain points.

            Union Omaha looks to shake off the FC Tucson match from last weekend.  They would have loved to add a point, or three, in the standings, especially since first-place Chattanooga lost on the same night.  There’s still plenty of time left in the season to add points, create space between themselves and third place, and even overtake Chattanooga.  In order to do so, the defense and midfield will have to stay compact, communicate, and limit touches for both Mayr-Fälten and Micaletto.  It seems as though their entire offense runs through these two (when Azaad is sitting on the bench).  If Mayr-Fälten is given the opportunity, he’s going to cross balls into the box time and time again.  There will have to be numbers in the box to win the aerial challenges and to start the attack on the ground.  The Owls had a good ground game last week, so hopefully we’ll see more possession and passes as the team moves up the field.  Union Omaha is only two points away from Chattanooga and five points ahead of FC Tucson.  A win tonight would go a long way toward securing a first-round bye in the playoffs and possibly home field advantage.

            Thank you so much, Búhos Nation, for coming out to Morrison Stadium last weekend.  It was great to see so many people in the stands.  The presence of the fans made it tough for FC Tucson, as they told fans after the match.  We want Omaha to be a tough place to play and the fans help to create that atmosphere, so great job.  If this article isn’t enough to get you ready for tonight’s match, make sure that you check out the latest episode of the Who Gives A Hoot? podcast.  It was released this morning and features Luke and Ryan discussing a little bit of Ajax results, last weekend’s match, and a preview of tonight’s match, as well.  Feel free to contact us on social media with any questions or comments.  We’d love to hear from you.  Enjoy tonight’s match, wherever you happen to watch it.  ¡Viva Búhos!

Saturday night lived up to nearly all expectations, minus the final score and the referees.  Morrison Stadium, home of the Creighton Blue Jays, played host for the night and 3,741 fans showed up for the incredible experience.  The stadium looked great, the atmosphere was passionately vocal, and the match was hard fought between Union Omaha and FC Tucson.  The visitors left town with three points after defeating Union Omaha 1-0 and climbed closer in the standings to the Owls for a first-round bye.  The play on the field was tense and physical, which created a lot of problems tactically for both teams, as well as the referee, who wasn’t the greatest at keeping play safe for the players, but we’ll get into that in a bit.

            Union Omaha, dressed in their black jerseys, black shorts, and lightning yellow socks, opened the match with the kickoff.  Playing in the traditional 4-4-2 formation (4 defenders, 4 midfielders, and 2 forwards), the team looked to expose the backline right from the get-go.  It’s a good way to set the tone, see if there are mismatches that can be exposed, take advantage of an early defensive error, and put the opposition on their heels.  The first attempts were easily turned over, but with starting forwards like Evan Conway and Greg Hurst, it doesn’t hurt to keep trying that tactic.

            Once FC Tucson gained control, you could see the players spread out to the edges of the field.  They had done their preparation, saw how the Owls move their players, and knew to open the field for better possessions.  Both clubs were employing the same tactic: if you have the ball, make the field as big as you can.  If you don’t, do what you can to make it as small as possible.  When Tucson had possession, they were also able to evade early pressure by moving the ball quickly, ensuring the Owls had more field to cover.  They tried to send deep lobs up the field as well, but Union Omaha’s defense was well-posted inside the center circle.  As you can see in the video below, the FC Tucson goalkeeper received a drop pass and decided to lob the ball straight up the middle of the field.  It was collected by Union Omaha’s defense because they had four players inside the center circle at the time the ball landed.  FC Tucson only had two inside the circle at the same moment.  The Owls happily accepted the gift and started a new attack.

            In the fifth minute of the match, everything changed.  FC Tucson had possession of the ball and completed a series of passes along the right flank, properly utilizing the middle when needing to escape a defender.  Eventually, FC Tucson right back Noah Franke received a pass toward the right corner, one-touched the ball into the box, and suddenly FC Tucson left midfielder Joao Delgado was scene rolling in the box.  The referee called for a penalty kick after spotting Union Omaha defender Ferrety Sousa clashing with Delgado in the box.  It all happened so quickly and the ESPN+ broadcast doesn’t give a good angle on the instance.  Seeing it live was just as tough, too.  The play was developing so quickly and there were a lot of players entering the box.  At any rate, the penalty was called and FC Tucson right midfielder Charlie Dennis collected the ball and made his way to the dot.  After the whistle, Dennis kicked the ball about chest-high to the right, but Union Omaha goalkeeper Rashid Nuhu dove low and to his right as well, opposite of the kick.  FC Tucson had the early lead and Union Omaha would have to scratch and claw for the remainder of the match to level the score.

            After the ensuing kickoff, Union Omaha maintained possession of the ball, but completely lost track of the middle of the field.  The team was able to drop the ball, swing it to the left side, and get a pass into Tucson’s half, but quickly had to resort to dropping the ball again.  In the start of the video, you’ll see Union Omaha midfielder Emir Alihodžić fire a pass to Evan Conway.  Immediately to his left is a swath of land to take advantage of, but he’s under pressure and sees teammate JP Scearce ready for a drop pass and sends it to him.  There wasn’t much of a Tucson presence in that open space, but by the time a probing pass was sent to Devin Boyce, the Tucson defense had reset and pressured Boyce enough to make him drop the ball again.  A quick pass to Sousa on the right sideline was made with the hopes of getting the ball into the corner, but a very tight Tucson triangle forced the pass backwards yet again.  At around 7:26 on the time clock, you’ll see Damiá Viader receive a pass on the left side.  He is very quickly double-teamed, shepherded to the outside, and eventually loses the ball.  When he initially receives the pass, the wide open territory opens again and there’s no support for a pass.  This was a combination of too many players getting sucked up to the front line of attack, the central midfielders sitting back too far, and no one recognizing the opportunity presented.  Unfortunately, this was a recurring theme throughout the match, which you’ll see later.

            It didn’t take long for things to get heated between the two sides.  In the 11^th minute, Emir Alihodžić was involved in a physical challenge, leaving him on the ground and out of the play.  Not even five seconds later, another challenge happened within ten yards of Alihodžić.  This time, FC Tucson center forward Giovanni Calixtro was left on the ground.  Center referee Jervis Atagana quickly called the play dead and gave a yellow that ultimately went to Conor Doyle, but the crowding of bodies around Calixtro turned into shoves from both sides.  This was the beginning of a long night for Atagana.

            The next few offensive opportunities for Union Omaha were long balls to the front line.  With every aerial challenge came a turnover.  It was becoming clear that the long-ball routine was not going to work on a routine basis.  FC Tucson already had the lead, had already switched to a defensive formation, and had no reason to get sucked up the field.  They were in preservation mode.  The Tucson defense would need to be coaxed out of position before a viable long ball was to happen.  Fortunately for Union Omaha, their ground game was looking much better and providing opportunities.

            In the video below, you’ll see Evan Conway receive a pass from Conor Doyle after a rough challenge.  He’ll turn inside, look for options, and ultimately drop back to Damiá Viader.  No stranger to taking defenses 1-on-1, Viader dribbled right at three defenders before threading a pass to Devin Boyce.  Greg Hurst was just starting his run when Boyce sent the thru-ball to him.  The Assistant Referee on the far sideline called Hurst offside and play was restarted with an FC Tucson free kick.  This was a good display of the offense because they were able to keep the ball on the ground, show a different threat in their arsenal, and give FC Tucson something extra to worry about when in their own third of the field.

            Not too long after Greg Hurst was called offside, another one of his runs was called offside, but in this case, he was onside.  As you can see in the video below, when Devin Boyce kicks the ball, Hurst is still angling his run.  With the goalkeeper still in his box, the second-to-last defender is #4, Luca Mastrantonio.  You’ll see that he is rushing toward the half line because he knows he has a chance to catch Hurst offside.  With the counter-motion between the players, the space that Hurst creates makes him look as though he is offside, when he timed his run perfectly.  He began his run parallel to the defensive line to gain some speed, turned downfield at just the right moment, created space and separation from defenders, and play should have been allowed to continue.  Hurst was robbed of an obvious goal-scoring opportunity.

            Here’s another possession from Union Omaha where there was no support in the middle, whatsoever.  As the ball is passed to JP Scearce in the middle, he’ll start dribbling towards the left side of the field and pass to teammate Illal Osumanu.  If you look in the middle of the field, no one is there.  You can see players attempting to stretch the Tucson backline, but there is no support in the middle.  The result of the play is Damiá Viader getting pinned along the left sideline and forcing a cross toward the top of Tucson’s penalty area.  In the vicinity of the ball are two Union Omaha players and four FC Tucson defenders.  The ball was cleared away before becoming too much of a threat.

            Union Omaha had a good chance on goal in the 33^rd minute.  Rashid Nuhu punted the ball up the field and the Owls eventually gained possession after a series of aerial challenges.  Damiá Viader dribbled the ball into Tucson’s half and fed a long pass to Greg Hurst, who one-touched the ball past the last field defender and Evan Conway was there to take it in stride.  He had one defender following closely behind, cut the ball back enabling him to lose the defender, and took a shot from the top of Tucson’s penalty area, but it went just over the crossbar.

            Immediately after, FC Tucson goalkeeper was issued a verbal warning for time-wasting.  It was a bit surprising to see Tucson employing such a tactic so early in the match, but like I said earlier: they were in preservation mode.  It’s one of the more frustrating aspects of soccer and leads to a lot of the negative stereotypes related to the sport.  Whether it’s feigning an injury, deciding to tie your cleats or adjust your shin guards before a free kick, launching a ball well out of play before play is restarted, being indecisive before throwing the ball back into play, or multiple players crowding a referee to argue a call, teams will employ all kinds of methods to delay play, eat up the clock, take the other team out of their rhythm, and bring an end to the match sooner than the opposition would like.  A lot of people will criticize soccer for all of the fake injuries, but they may not understand the gamesmanship involved.  It’s not an attractive side of the sport and, unfortunately, there doesn’t seem to be anything being done by any governing bodies to combat the issue.  It’s a decidedly tough issue to combat because you don’t want to accuse someone of faking an injury when they actually did suffer an injury.  The referees can try to approximate how much time was wasted and tack it onto the end of the half and match for stoppage time, but those estimations may not always be accurate and the rhythm of play has already been disrupted.

            By the time the halftime whistle was blown, Union Omaha fans inside of Morrison Stadium had become frustrated with the perceived imbalance of calls between the two sides.  It wasn’t just the quantity, or lack thereof, it was also the quality and severity of the calls or missed calls.  The teams were walking to their respective locker rooms, but as the referee crew made their way off the field, the boo-birds sang loudly in their general direction.

            FC Tucson started the second half and looked to settle back into the same game plan after gaining the lead.  The team’s focus was mostly about maintaining possession while getting the ball into Union Omaha’s half very quickly.  This strategy certainly lent the Owls more possession and offensive opportunities.  It’s all a matter of whether or not Union Omaha would be able to take advantage of those opportunities.

            The first opportunity came in the 53^rd, when Damiá Viader received a pass inside Tucson’s half on the right side of the field, cut inside, and was able to find Devin Boyce for a short pass.  Boyce continued that idea by dribbling toward the middle and threading a ball into the right side of Tucson’s penalty area for Greg Hurst.  While running inside the penalty area, Greg Hurst’s left wrist was grabbed by FC Tucson defender Kaelon Fox.  He continued to hold onto Hurst’s wrist for about five steps.  This is a clear and obvious foul inside the penalty area, which should have resulted in a penalty kick for Union Omaha.  Watching the replay doesn’t provide a clear image of where the center referee was positioned at the time of the foul, but there is reason to suspect that multiple bodies were in the way.  That being said, the Assistant Referee on the near sideline had a clear view of the action and should have made the call, as well.

            In my teenage years, I was a referee for several years and I can say from experience, there are people who are assigned the duty of Center Referee who do not want input on fouls from their Assistant Referee’s (AR), especially if the foul occurs in the penalty area.  They don’t want to have to worry about what the ARs are calling, being forced to wave off their call, looking like the bad guy, and having parents even more angry with them.  Now take this with a grain of salt because the referees that took the field on Saturday night are far above where I ended up, may have a different list of protocol to follow, and the Assistant Referees may not be granted this level of decision making.  I wasn’t in the locker room with the referees before the match, I never heard any of their discussions and/or instructions to one another, and don’t know what their governing body tells them to do.

            So anyways, Greg Hurst and the would-be Owl’s penalty-taker missed out on another chance to even the score line.

            The next quality opportunity on goal for Union Omaha came in the 59^th minute.  Devin Boyce received a pass inside the center circle and saw the perfect opportunity to chip the ball over the defense and give Conor Doyle a shot on goal.  Boyce executed a great chip to an open Doyle, but the following shot when way over the crossbar.  The build-up play was good – the passes were crisp, teammates were open, and the ball was methodically moved up the field.

            Most of the second half consisted of Union Omaha offensive opportunities that were easily cleared and the continuation of the “testosterone match” between the sides.  Every soccer player has been there.  You’re angry at a player, or players, on the other side of the ball and want to muscle them around a bit.  You start to turn your focus away from playing the ball and try to get physical with the other team, while still at some level playing the sport.  It muddies up the game, takes attention away from playing the sport technically and cleanly, and puts players at risk for bodily harm.  If players feel that they can exert that level of force on another player without being called for a foul, then the cycle will continue.  Once players feel that they’ve been granted this level of freedom, the referee has lost control of the match.  Getting the match back under control is very difficult for the referee because they’ve already established their level of acceptance towards physicality.  To go back on that would bring questions to the consistency of their decisions.

            Unfortunately, this unnecessary level of physicality led to another incident inside of FC Tucson’s penalty area.  Near the right corner, Ferrety Sousa throws the ball to Devin Boyce, who is standing inside of the penalty area.  His first touch leads him toward the goal line and Tucson midfielder Mohamed Kone throws his arm into Devin Boyce’s head.  As you watch the video, take note that Kone never made an attempt to play the ball.  His entire focus was on eliminating Boyce from the remainder of the play.  Kone’s actions are careless and reckless, which falls under the definition of a direct kick in the box (otherwise known as a penalty kick).  I’ve included a screenshot of the exact page of the FIFA Law Book as a reference.  You can find it under the video directly below.

            I’ll say it here and leave the subject alone.  Center referee Jervis Atagana’s decision making during this match was very poor.  He allowed conditions to progress to the point where players were facing injuries.  In a day and age where head injuries are being monitored closely, Atagana showed no regard for Boyce’s health and safety in that situation.  His inability to control the match was a disservice to both clubs, the fans, and the sport.  I hope he is put under review and re-educated on the laws of the game.  If not, his superiors are willfully accepting the risk of bodily harm on players in future matches in which he is assigned to officiate.

            It wasn’t until the 82^nd minute when Union Omaha correctly received a penalty kick.  FC Tucson had just launched a goal kick toward the half line and Conor Doyle collected the 50/50 ball.  As he looked downfield, he saw the slimmest of passing lanes leading Evan Conway into the penalty area.  Conway took his defender 1-on-1 and was tripped inside of the box.  This was an easy call for the center referee to make.

            Damiá Viader was the man to take the penalty kick, but before a little more gamesmanship from FC Tucson.  As the other players line up around the 18-yard box, they cannot enter the arc at the top of the box, as well.  Tucson players took advantage of the moment, treading just inside of the restricted areas.  The center referee had to call attention to their placement, take time away from the penalty kick to explain this to the players, and leave Viader standing in position for those extra seconds.  Basically, it’s soccer’s version of “icing the kicker.”

            When Viader took the shot, he aimed for the right side of the goal.  FC Tucson goalkeeper was out of reach, but the ball hit the right post, glanced off of the goalie’s leg, and went out of bounds for a Union Omaha corner kick.

            The only remaining chance on goal for Union Omaha came in the 90’+3 (three minutes into stoppage time).  As FC Tucson tried to clear the ball, it bounced straight to Conor Doyle’s position and he ripped it off the bounce, but the ball went wide.  For half of a heartbeat, there was a glimmer of hope watching that ball on route to the net.  The Owls spent the remainder of stoppage time scrambling to produce another chance, but it never came to fruition.

            Union Omaha should have had three penalty kicks and were robbed of a breakaway, but they had several other chances to take care of business.  It’s perfectly reasonable to be angry with the referees, but the Owls did have their chances to determine their own destiny.  Putting the entire loss on the backs of the referees is more of an emotional response than a logical one.  This Saturday, Union Omaha travels to South Georgia Tormenta before having five straight home matches.  There are plenty of points to earn and excitement to watch, so stay tuned to Union Omaha and USL League One action.  The playoffs are just around the corner.

            I don’t know if you saw the Data Dump earlier this week, but Ben, and awesome sidekick Tim, put out a good article with plenty of statistics to read.  There was also a new episode of the podcast released today.  We here at Who Gives A Hoot Media are working hard to make sure you’re getting the best information and plenty of entertainment along the way, as well.  Whether it’s the podcast, the articles, or the social media posts, we’ve got you covered for all things Union Omaha, with a dash of USL League One information here and there.  Thank you for your continued loyalty to us.  Do you have a question that you’d like us to answer?  Feel free to send it our way and we’ll do our best to keep you informed.  Do you have any ideas for articles or features in the podcast?  Let us know those, as well.  We’re here for you, so if it’s something we can manage, we’ll make it work.

Well that was interesting. Morrison Stadium was alive and vibrant in a way Werner Park has maybe never been, but I’m not convinced I want to go back after the results. I’ve got a crazy week, so let’s dive in!

1) The good.

Sure, we lost this game BUT we did that despite:

• Possession: 58.5% – season high
• Crosses: 27 – T-2nd most on the season
• Opponents Chances: 3 – T-Lowest on the Season (at Tucson 7/24)
• Passing accuracy: 83.6% – season high
• Our xG: 2.30 – 2nd most on the season (0.01 less than home to NTSC 7/31)
• Our xG minus Opponents xG: 1.15 – 3rd highest on the season

Those are all really good stats and, to me, prove what a stout job of defending Tucson did in this game.

2) The ignoble.

The missed penalty hurt us. Sure you never want to rely on a penalty to earn points, but you often assume that when you get one, you are going to score. Interestingly enough, that’s not quite true. I found some research that indicates the global make rate is around 75.49% of penalties go in. (The research is here and has data by zodiac signs as well, so feel free to take with a grain of salt.) This was the clubs first miss on 4 attempts in regular and preseason games.

Also, according to this research we’ve witnessed the rarest type of penalty miss: hitting the post which occurs in around 2.87% of penalties. So…hooray?

3) Guest post from Timothy aka Ranting Blue Penguin: Fouling the Owls

Physicality is a part of soccer.  It’s not just a matter of trying to get every advantage you can, but eventually, you get into the mind of your opponent.  Living rent free inside your opposite number’s head is a prime way to make sure that they don’t get to play their game.  This is especially true if the referees are allowing it to go on.

This isn’t designed to be a rant on the referee’s though (that could come later and fill volumes).  Instead, I wanted to take a very quick surface look at the effect of fouling on the team this year.  

It’s worth noting, before we get started, that simply looking at foul numbers isn’t going to be a perfect identifier of a physical game.  Advantage numbers aren’t tallied into the stats. Nor does it identify touchy fouls or no-calls.  It obviously doesn’t account for really hard, but fair, challenges that can have an effect on a player’s thought process going forward.

However, over the course of a match, foul tally can provide an indicator of how physical a match is.  (Eventually, the referee has to call something, right?)  So despite the imperfections, I wanted to look at this as a potential indicator–and maybe something to watch for the next time we’re in a physical match.

I started out by looking back at all of our matches for the year from the USL1 League website.  The only matches not indicated are our abandoned match with Madison (no official stats). In the 21 matches, I looked at our opponent’s called fouls vs. our called fouls and came up with this:

Opponent	Date	Home/Away	Opp. Fouls	UO Fouls
TUC	7/24/2021	A	23	18
TRM	4/24/2021	H	17	23
CHA	8/21/2021	A	17	19
TUC	9/25/2021	H	17	15
TUC	8/14/2021	A	17	14
NC	9/4/2021	A	15	11
MAD	5/26/2021	A	13	12
MAD	7/16/2021	H	13	13
NTX	8/28/2021	H	13	10
NTX	9/19/2021	A	13	10
RIC	6/19/2021	A	12	16
TUC	6/26/2021	H	12	17
TFC2	9/11/2021	H	11	16
NE2	5/12/2021	A	10	14
MAD	6/6/2021	A	10	18
CHA	7/3/2021	H	9	14
NTX	7/31/2021	H	9	10
NE2	6/12/2021	H	8	13
FTL	5/7/2021	A	7	9
TFC2	6/2/2021	A	6	10
GVL	5/16/2021	A	5	16

You’ll notice, there are only 7 times out of 21 that our opponents out-fouled us:  

Opponent	Date	Home/Away	Opp. Fouls	UO Fouls
TUC	7/24/2021	A	23	18
TUC	9/25/2021	H	17	15
TUC	8/14/2021	A	17	14
NC	9/4/2021	A	15	11
MAD	5/26/2021	A	13	12
NTX	8/28/2021	H	13	10
NTX	9/19/2021	A	13	10

In those matches, UO is 3-2-2, but those matches include 2 of our three losses (Home to Tucson, Away to Madison), as well as 3 of our 4 shutouts on the year (Home to Tucson, Away to Madison, and a Home Draw with North Texas).  

Our shot totals seem to go lower as well.  In those 7 matches, we have a total of 82 shots (11.7 per match) with 24 on target for a 29.3% accuracy rate and 9 goals (1.28 per match).  In our other matches, we have 189 shots (13.5 per match), with 61 of those on target for a 32.3% accuracy rate and 20 goals (1.43 per match).  Those totals sound negligible, but every little bit helps over the course of a season.

To wrap this foul data up, I also noticed one final trend.  Even when UO out-fouls (or is even), they are 4-3-3 when the opponent is called for 13 or more fouls.  In those matches, we have 116 shots, 34 on target (31.9% accuracy) with 11 goals (1.1 per match) and all four of our shutouts.  UO is 6-0-5 with 155 shots, 51 on target (32.9%) with 17 goals (1.55 per match) when the opponent has 12 or less fouls.

None of this data is conclusive to anything, of course.  Physical games aren’t necessarily measured in the fouls called. And the Owls always fight hard, with passion, and don’t back down from anyone. However, it’s worth monitoring the next time we play a physical team.  Frustration is often evident. It’s possible that some in the league have figured out that the fire that drives our team can also be the key to its undoing.

Stats compiled from a week-by-week pull at https://www.uslleagueone.com/league-scores, accessed 26 Sep 21

Special thanks to Tim! I’ll be traveling next week so I’ll see you when I see you!

Union Omaha (10-8-2, 2^nd Place) vs. FC Tucson (8-6-8, 4^th Place)

Morrison Stadium, Omaha, Nebraska

7 PM (CST), ESPN+

            It’s game day, Búhos fans!  We’ve been excitedly promoting this match for a while now and the day has finally come.  From the sounds of it, there’s going to be a healthy crowd filing into Morrison Stadium.  With all of the buzz surrounding the match, the atmosphere should be electric.  The team store was teasing limited-edition merchandise and even Parliament was slipping a bit of info into the ether about a possible surprise.  There are great things on the way, but let’s focus in on the match ahead.

            This week’s opponent is FC Tucson, the team that was sitting in 11^th place at the end of August.  Now we’re at the end of September, they’ve played four matches, earned ten points, and they’re suddenly up to fourth place.  They haven’t lost a match since August 14^th, the last time these two clubs met.  That kind of transformation is rare at a club, but whatever they’re doing is working.  They’ve scored the most goals, the highest conversion rate from shots to goals, and are tied for third with passing accuracy.  It’s amazing what they’ve managed to do and change so quickly.  Fortunately for Union Omaha, they still have the same problems plaguing them: a soft defense and predictable ball movement on offense.

            After watching footage from previous matches, against Union Omaha and as a whole, they have several problems on defense.  First off, they aren’t given sufficient support most of the time because the midfielders get sucked up too high with the forwards.  Because of that, opposition routinely slips personnel behind the midfield and wait for the play into transition.  The backline also sets their line too far back, further enabling the opposing offense to take advantage of the defense.  FC Tucson is extremely susceptible to the fast break and match footage shows it time after time.  When in 1v1 situations, the defenders seem more focused on holding the opposition and delaying for numbers to get back.  The defenders don’t stab at the ball all that often and look hesitant to get physical with the attacker.  I haven’t found a whole lot of footage of their goalie going horizontal, either.  It’s almost as if he knows that shots are out of reach and simply doesn’t feel the need to dive for it.  Once the defense gains possession of the ball, that’s when their other batch of problems begins.

            Most of their attacks develop from the right flank.  They tend to bring the ball into the opposing final third, dribble right to the top of the 18-yard box, and turn inside to look for options in the middle.  Even after they turn inside, more often than not, they keep the ball on the ground.  They have their fair share of crosses, but with the numbers moving up the field as quickly as they do, they seem to have more options by means of a simple pass.  One thing they do well on offense, and could cause trouble for the Union Omaha defense, is how the stagger their runs into the opposing third.  By not holding their positional lines as they move up the field, defenders have to keep checking for another runner into the box or up the flank.  FC Tucson has scored a number of their goals by delaying their just long enough to pick up the rebound or deflection and have a second chance on goal.  We saw a well-disciplined Union Omaha defense last week, so hopefully they are up to the challenge again on Saturday night.

            Union Omaha looks to continue their momentum toward the playoffs and earn the home field advantage throughout.  The Owls currently sit two points behind first-placed Chattanooga Red Wolves, but have two games in hand.  In eight home matches, Union Omaha has only allowed six goals.  That’s a testament to the discipline and teamwork from top to bottom.  The offense had some neat tactics up their sleeve to punish North Texas.  Coach Jay Mims and his assistants are doing a great job of training the team, installing new ideas, and preparing for the next opponent.

            The Owls will need to keep that discipline alive, especially on defense.  The team has done a good job of getting back quickly and same liveliness will be required against the speedy FC Tucson offense.  When I was watching the footage, I didn’t notice a lot of teams loading numbers in the area near the ball, which resulted in more freedom for the attacker.  If Union Omaha can do that again Saturday night, they’ll be limiting FC Tucson a lot while in transition.  We saw how well it worked against North Texas SC.  This is a new chapter to the one-sided history, so I’m curious as to what tactics they’ll bring to Morrison Stadium.

            These two clubs have on five occasions in the past and Union Omaha won every single one of them.  The Owls have collected three wins against them this year and two last year.  The overall aggregate is 8-3 for Union Omaha.  So far this season, FC Tucson has only scored one goal on the Owls.  When Tucson plays on the road, they average just about two goals scored and two goals conceded.  There’s reason to believe there could be multiple goals, but this match could just as easily become a chippy affair.  Both clubs are in the top 5 for fouls conceded and they’ve been awarded 13 more yellow cards than Union Omaha this season.  This could turn out to be quite an interesting match, full of drama.

            If you haven’t picked up on my excitement for Saturday’s match, then I’ll be completely transparent: Saturday night is going to be such a wild night.  You should plan on being there because who knows when Union Omaha is going to play a home match in a soccer-specific stadium again?  The weather is going to be beautiful, too.  Oh yeah, and make sure to head over to The Session Room at 4 PM.  There’s going to be a big hangout with Búhos fans, good drinks, and delicious tacos, too.  Bring your friends, bring your family, and let’s cheer Union Omaha on to victory.  ¡Viva Búhos and see you at the stadium!

            Welcome to Week 25, Búhos nation.  There’s only five weeks left in the regular season and the playoff race is heating up.  USL League One has five matches this weekend and each has its own set of intrigue.  Before we jump into the match previews, let’s take a look at the standings:

	Club	Mov’t	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1.	Chattanooga	↑1	22	10	10	2	32	21	11	40
2.	Union Omaha	↓1	20	10	8	2	28	15	13	38
3.	Greenville	–	22	8	7	7	30	28	2	31
4.	FC Tucson	–	22	8	6	8	34	33	1	30
5.	Tormenta	–	24	8	5	11	31	35	-4	29
6.	New England II	↑3	21	8	4	9	29	32	-3	28
7.	Forward Madison	↓1	20	6	10	4	23	23	0	28
8.	Ft. Lauderdale	↓1	23	7	6	10	33	38	-5	27
9.	North Texas	↓1	22	6	9	7	30	28	2	27
10.	Toronto FC II	↑1	22	6	8	8	26	28	-2	26
11.	Richmond	↓1	21	6	7	8	25	27	-2	25
12.	North Carolina FC	–	21	5	4	12	24	37	-13	19

Mov’t – Movement in the standings from Week 24 to Week 25.

MP – Matches played

MATCH 1

Richmond Kickers (6-7-8, 11^th Place) vs Toronto FC II (6-8-8, 10^th Place)

City Stadium, Richmond, Virginia

Saturday, September 25^th @ 5:30 (CST)

            Their stats in the leaderboard to show much of a difference between the clubs, but once you look a little deeper, their identities really start to show themselves.  Toronto is winless in their last five, but don’t start to count them out of contention for this match, or the playoffs.  The Young Reds just finished a tough run in the schedule, facing the top three clubs in consecutive weeks.  With the help of recent loan Jacob Shaffelburg, this club is looking to right the ship and make a run for the playoffs.  Toronto FC II is a equipped with a squad to leaving you chasing their passes for the entire match.  The team ranks 1^st in overall passes, is also tied for 1^st in passing accuracy, and has playmakers like Garrett McLaughlin, Luca Petrasso, and Kobe Franklin to give opponents headaches.

            There’s no sleeping on Richmond, either.  The Kickers have a golden boot contender, Emiliano Terzaghi, and a golden glove contender, Akira Fitzgerald, on their roster.  Getting the ball past Fitzgerald is hard enough, but then you have to think of the two defensive stalwarts: Ivan Magalhães and Jalen Crisler.  Together, they’ve cleared over 160 threats and currently sit in third and fourth, respectively, in clearances in the league.  Moving up the field, midfielder Zacarías Correa is the chance creator for the club.  He may play defense, but Nil Vinyals is a close second for chances created for the Kickers.  And don’t even start to think the threats end on the field.  The Richmond Kickers regularly draw healthy crowds to their matches and make some noise, too.

Three reasons why the Richmond Kickers will win:

1. In ten home matches this season, they conceded a total of 9 goals.
2. Their only loss at home came on April 24^th.  The club is undefeated at home beyond that loss.
3. Emiliano Terzaghi.  The man is not only a threat with his goals (12 on the season), but also his physicality (7 yellow cards) and his ability to draw defenders out of position and open up the field for his teammates.

Three reasons why Toronto FC II will win:

1. In the two previous matches between these two clubs at City Stadium, Toronto FC II is undefeated.
2. The last time Richmond defeated Toronto FC II was back on July 26^th, 2019.
3. Richmond’s last win at home this season was July 31^st, almost two months ago.

This match will be interesting to watch because both clubs are looking to jumpstart their hopeful runs to the playoffs.  Both have a legitimate chance, but three points starting now are must-haves. 

MATCH 2

Chattanooga Red Wolves (10-10-2, 1^st Place) vs New England Revolution II (8-4-9, 6^th Place)

CHI Memorial Stadium, Chattanooga, Tennessee

Saturday, September 25^th @ 6 PM (CST)

            Remember that time that one team returned home from a match earlier this season in Chattanooga with three points?  Me neither.  The Red Wolves are ferocious at home.  If any club hopes to defeat Chattanooga at home, they can’t just bring their A-game.  They have to bring the A-game’s A-game.  With six matches left to their season, two at home (including the match this Saturday), and Union Omaha right on their heels, you can bet they’ll come out swinging.  Chattanooga wants home field advantage in the playoffs and they need widen that lead on Union Omaha to do so.  Don’t be surprised if future commercials for the Baby Revs feature Sarah McLachlan’s songs.

            If this is a David vs. Goliath type of a match, then New England is happy to call themselves Goliath, even if you won’t.  The Baby Revs have seven clean sheets so far this season, tied for second in the league.  These guys also like to shoot a lot.  The club leads the league in shots (306).  They’re also ranked fourth in passing, tied for third in passing accuracy, and have tallied the highest amount of successful dribbles in the league.  Just like their moniker suggests, they’re a militia hell bent on bring guerilla warfare to the soccer field.  They’re going to keep the ball on the ground, suffocate the opposition with their possession, use all areas of the field, and pepper the goal with shots.  New England currently sits on the fringe of playoff contention and don’t want their last season in League One to end unceremoniously.  Move aside doubters because they’re only looking for bettors.

Three reasons why Chattanooga will win:

1. The Red Wolves average a goal against them at home.  Teams have only scored more than one goal against them on two occasions while at home, as well.  On attack, Chattanooga has nearly doubled opposing goals across all home matches.
2. In three previous meetings between the two clubs, New England II has never defeated Chattanooga.  The Red Wolves have nearly tripled New England’s goal count (8-3) across those matches, too.
3. The Baby Revs haven’t won on the road in 98 days.  They also have more losses on the road than wins and draws combined.  That’s means only 8 out of a possible 27 points on the road.

Three reasons why New England will win:

1. Chattanooga isn’t exactly stellar against teams that like to pass the ball.  Here are the top five passing clubs in the league: Toronto FC II, Tormenta, Ft. Lauderdale, New England II, and Forward Madison.  Chattanooga has played these teams seven times so far this season.  Their record: two wins, four draws, and one loss.
2. It’s no secret that Chattanooga likes to cross the ball.  They rank fourth in the league in successful crosses.  New England II, however, likes to win aerial duels.  When looking at defenders who have played in ten or more matches this season, they’ve won nearly two-thirds (64%) of their aerial duels.  Couple that with the fact that New England goalkeeper Joseph Rice saves 72.3% of the shots on goal and you have a tough defense.
3. The Red Wolves rank first in fouls conceded and are tied for first in yellow cards received this season.  This will provide plenty of set pieces for New England II.  With as much possession and as many shots as the Baby Revs normally have in a match, this will simply be another weapon in their arsenal.

A match like this has all of the ingredients for an upset.  It will be interesting to see how each side planned for the match.  Both teams are hungry, so fans and viewers will certainly enjoy this one.

MATCH 3

Forward Madison (6-10-4, 7^th Place) vs. Greenville Triumph (8-7-7, 3^rd Place)

Breese Stevens Field, Madison, Wisconsin

Saturday, September 25^th @ 7 PM (CST)

            If you’re looking for a barn-burner, keep looking.  This one is going to be like an on-going card game of War: something good may happen from time to time, but a winner will seemingly never be decided.  In six matches between these two clubs, four ended in a draw.  The average goal count for both sides is less than a goal per match, as well.  Here’s the positive with a match like this: these two clubs are evenly matched and will show a lot of heart for the full 90 minutes.  Call me crazy, but I actually enjoy low-scoring affairs.  You get to see how each side changes their tactics.  I like watching two sides scrap and battle for every inch, every pass, and every shot on goal.  That builds the tension to the very end.

            Greenville seems to have one foot in the playoffs and they aren’t looking to share that comfort with anybody else, especially someone who decide what they’re going to the party.  The reigning champion hasn’t had the same season as last year, but that doesn’t mean their aspirations are any different.  They still have goal-scoring machine Marios Lomis, who is tied for first in goals this season.  Dallas Jaye, last year’s Golden Glove winner, is still minding the net for the Triumph and has five clean sheets to his name.  They are still a well-coached team and can achieve good results against high-ranking opponents.  In fact, the Triumph have played one of the current top-3 teams six times and only lost one of those matches (I’m including fourth-placed FC Tucson since Greenville is currently in third place).  As far as they’re concerned, they’re still the champion and they intend on keeping it that way.

            After Week 24, Forward Madison slipped under the playoff dividing line and they’re ready to wreak havoc in order to get back to the adults table.  Just like last season, they’ve established Breese Stevens Field as a formidable place for opponents to earn points.  Their passionate fan base show up and make noise for the whole match.  The club has only lost two matches at home.  The Flamingos are averaging a goal per home match, all while keeping the opponents average to less than a goal per home match.  They’re able to achieve this with all of their quality passing (fifth in the league for passing and tied for first in passing accuracy).  It doesn’t hurt having a tandem like Jake Keegan and Ryan Sierakowksi, either.

Three reasons why Greenville will win:

1. When playing on the road and the score is separated by a single goal, Greenville won 75% of those matches.
2. Half of Greenville’s clean sheets happened while the team was playing on the road.
3. These two clubs have been going head-to-head since 2019 and Forward Madison has yet to win a match.  Furthermore, the only goals that Forward Madison has scored in the series came in the same match, which ended up as a tie.

Three reasons why Forward Madison will win:

1. Aside from their loss to North Carolina FC on August 25^th, you’d have to go back to July 10^th to find their other, most recent loss.  The last time they lost at home was back in June.
2. Forward Madison is tied for second in the league for fewest goals conceded while playing at home.
3. Greenville has only scored one goal in Breese Stevens Field, back on August 28^th, 2019.

I think this will be the closest match of the weekend.  The true soccer fans inside Breese Stevens will be sitting on the edge of their seats.  That should be a fun atmosphere, riddled with anxiety, but still fun.

MATCH 4

North Carolina FC (5-4-2, 12^th Place) vs. North Texas SC (6-9-7, 9^th Place)

Sahlens Stadium at WakeMed Soccer Park, Cary, North Carolina

Sunday, September 26^th @ 1 PM (CST)

            What better way to end Week 25, than the last installment of “The Battle of the North’s”?  North Carolina FC has gone through quite the transformation as the season has progressed.  In their first five home matches, they only won one and lost four, with a goal differential of -4.  Their last five home matches have given them three wins and two losses, with a goal differential of 2.  This is a club that has earned respect and deserves careful planning from opposing clubs.  They may have the slimmest of chances to make the playoffs, but that allows them to be the spoiler.  You know who deserves spoiling?  The guys who don’t want to play in this league next year.

            North Texas gave Union Omaha quite the battle when they hosted the Owls last week.  The problem is they were the host.  At home, they’re a lion.  On the road, they’re a lamb.  They’ve played 11 matches as the away team and only won one of those matches.  Out of a possible 33 points, they’ve only managed to collect 7.  Want more stats?  I gotcha covered.  At home, they’ve scored 22 goals and conceded 10.  On the road, they’ve scored 8 goals and let in 18.  If North Texas wants to make the playoffs, they need to reverse their results on the road.  They only have three home matches and three away matches left in the season.  If all three of those away matches are losses, they don’t have a very good chance of playing past October.

Three reasons why North Carolina will win:

1. North Texas is winless in their last eight matches.  The only road win they’ve earned was back on August 7^th.
2. There have been six occasions where North Texas played a playoff team (top 6 in the league standings at the time) and then the week afterward, they would play a team below the playoff threshold.  Out of those six matches, North Texas only managed to win one.
3. North Texas has only scored two goals in their last five away matches.  They’ve been held scoreless in the last three away matches.

Three reasons why North Texas will win:

1. In the 10 home matches for North Carolina FC, their opponents are scoring, on average, two goals a match.
2. North Texas defeated North Carolina just over a month ago with a score of 4-0.
3. North Texas has played three matches on a Sunday, winning two of them.  In those three matches, they scored seven goals and only allowed three.

Well, I hope you all are excited for another great week of League One play.  Be on the look-out for the Union Omaha preview.  That should coming out in just a little bit.  Since you’re done reading this article, check out some of the other great material that Who Gives A Hoot has to offer.  A new episode of the podcast was released today, so go give that a listen.

            There are five weeks left in the USL League One regular season and a lot of people are wondering how the playoffs will look.  There are teams positioning themselves for a first round bye, many more teams fighting to stay in the hunt, and then there are the wayward ones who hope to become a blip on the radar before the final whistle blows in Week 29.  Below, I’ve done the math to sort out the playoff necessities and what their remaining strength of schedule looks like.  If you need a reference to the USL League One playoff format, you can find more information about tiebreakers, home field advantage, and more here.

            First off, let’s look at the current standings in League One:

	Club	Mov’t	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1.	Chattanooga	↑1	22	10	10	2	32	21	11	40
2.	Union Omaha	↓1	20	10	8	2	28	15	13	38
3.	Greenville	–	22	8	7	7	30	28	2	31
4.	FC Tucson	–	22	8	6	8	34	33	1	30
5.	Tormenta	–	24	8	5	11	31	35	-4	29
6.	New England II	↑3	21	8	4	9	29	32	-3	28
7.	Forward Madison	↓1	20	6	10	4	23	23	0	28
8.	Ft. Lauderdale	↓1	23	7	6	10	33	38	-5	27
9.	North Texas	↓1	22	6	9	7	30	28	2	27
10.	Toronto FC II	↑1	22	6	8	8	26	28	-2	26
11.	Richmond	↓1	21	6	7	8	25	27	-2	25
12.	North Carolina FC	–	21	5	4	12	24	37	-13	19

Mov’t – Movement in the standings from Week 24 to Week 25.

MP – Matches played
Pts – Points
MR – Matches remaining
HPPT – Highest Possible Points Total

            There’s a bit of a variation amongst the clubs as far as matches played.  In the remaining five weeks, some clubs will only have to play four matches, while others will have to double that count and play eight matches.  So even though you see South Georgia Tormenta in 5^th place, it doesn’t necessarily mean that’s where they’ll end up at the end of October.  Now that we have the current standings, we know that each club’s current point total is the absolute minimum that each club will have at the end of the season.  Next, let’s look at the highest number each club can earn and see how that affects the playoff picture.

	Club	MP	Pts	MR	HPPT
1.	Union Omaha	20	38	8	62
2.	Chattanooga	22	40	6	58
3.	Forward Madison	20	28	8	52
4.	Greenville	22	31	6	49
5.	New England II	21	28	7	49
6.	FC Tucson	22	30	6	48
7.	Richmond	21	25	7	46
8.	North Texas	22	27	6	45
9.	Toronto FC II	22	26	6	44
10.	Ft. Lauderdale	23	27	5	42
11.	Tormenta	24	29	4	41
12.	North Carolina FC	21	19	7	40

            This table is highly informative for many reasons.  First off, it shows the maximum number of points each club can earn by the end of the season.  It’s impossible for every club to reach their number because there will be losses and draws along the way.  If you start looking at the maximum points a club can earn, you can start to see the so-called “magic numbers.”  For instance, if Union Omaha wants to lock up home field advantage for the entirety of the playoffs, they need to earn 59 points or more, assuming Chattanooga wins the remainder of their matches.  If Union Omaha and Chattanooga want to secure a first-round bye in the playoffs, they have to earn 53 points or greater.  Since the highest point total that Forward Madison can achieve is 52, the top two teams simply have to earn more than 52 points to lock in those positions.  This works for the next four playoff positions, as well.  Since Richmond can earn a maximum point total of 46 points, if other teams want to secure a place in the playoffs, they need to earn 47 points or higher.  Next, let’s take a look at remaining strength of schedule.

            Each club will have their challenges through the end of October, but which clubs will have it easier, or harder, than the others?  Here’s a table with the average points earned per match for each club in League One.  I’ve gone the extra step to calculate the points earned per home match, as well as away matches.  This will come in handy in just a bit.

	Clubs	Overall Pts/match	Home Pts/match	Away Pts/match
1.	Union Omaha	1.90	2	1.83
2.	Chattanooga	1.82	2.17	1.40
3.	Greenville	1.41	1.46	1.36
4.	Forward Madison	1.40	1.73	1
5.	FC Tucson	1.36	1.55	1.18
6.	New England II	1.33	1.67	0.89
7.	North Texas	1.23	1.82	0.64
8.	Tormenta	1.21	1.39	1
9.	Richmond	1.19	1.70	0.73
10.	Toronto FC II	1.18	1.60	0.83
11.	Ft. Lauderdale	1.17	1.33	1
12.	North Carolina FC	0.91	1.2	0.64

            While this table shows you which club is averaging the most points per match overall, it also gives you insight as to how each club is performing at home and on the road.  Union Omaha may have the overall average (due to less matches played) and road average, but Chattanooga is outperforming at home.  Meanwhile, North Carolina FC finds itself at the bottom of each category (tied for last in the away category, but still).  Now that we have these numbers, it’s time to start jumping down the rabbit hole to start calculating that strength of schedule.

            Below is the table showing exactly how the strength of schedule was calculated.  Using the numbers in the previous table, we can piece together which club has the toughest road to the end of October.

            Alright, so that’s the dirty work.  As you look at each club, you’ll see their remaining schedule and the average amount of points earned by their opponent at home or on the road.  Instead of going off of the overall average, this gives us a better look into how each opponent performs, given the circumstances.  Some clubs have an advantage hosting their opponent because the visiting club has a lower average point total on the road.  I’ll include another table below to clean up the results and make it easier to read.

	Club	Opponent avg pt/match
1.	Forward Madison	1.59
2.	New England II	1.52
3.	Tormenta	1.48
4.	Greenville	1.37
5.	Richmond	1.37
6.	North Carolina FC	1.36
7.	Ft. Lauderdale	1.34
8.	Chattanooga	1.30
9.	North Texas	1.26
10	Toronto FC II	1.22
11.	Union Omaha	1.14
12.	FC Tucson	1.12

            Forward Madison looks to have a rough road ahead of them.  Their high number comes mostly from having to play five straight away games against teams who have fared well at home this season.  They finish off the season with back-to-back home games, but even those opponents are high in the playoff race.  FC Tucson looks to have the easiest road to the end of the regular season.  This is due in part to the fact that their four remaining home matches are against some of the clubs with the worst average points on the road.  As for the race to the top spot, it looks like Union Omaha has a slight advantage over Chattanooga.  If you’re looking for some drama in the middle of the table, keep an eye on Toronto FC II.  With an easier opponent load and four home matches, they could easily climb the table and make things interesting.

            I’ll keep you updated on the playoff race each week until the end of the regular season, so keep checking back for more reading material.  The playoff race is heating up, so make sure you keep up to date on all things Union Omaha related and maybe a dab of USL League One info here and there, too.

Down in Arlington, Texas Sunday night, it was one of those evenings where dogs are a trees best friend.  It was hot (right around 100°) and dry (humidity around 33%) – a perfect setting for fire to spread and it did just that, figuratively, onto the soccer field in Chocktaw Stadium.  The match between North Texas SC and Union Omaha was filled with heart, grit, and a few goals to make it interesting.  I’ll save you the suspense: yes, the match ended in yet another draw, the fourth in a row between these two clubs.  The 2-2 final score doesn’t tell the whole story, so let’s dive right in.

            Union Omaha, donned in lightning yellow jerseys, shorts, and socks, were awarded the opening kickoff.  From the get go, the Owls looked to utilize the left side of the field, but the North Texas defense was able to fill their right side of the field with numbers to absorb the attack.  Along with absorbing the attack, North Texas looked very composed playing the ball out of the back.  They felt the pressure, but they remained calm and stuck to their game plan early on.

            In the 4^th minute of play, Union Omaha’s Conor Doyle added a productive wrinkle to the Owl’s offense.  Playing as the left midfielder, Doyle received a pass on the left side of the field and instead of turning toward the sideline, he opted to turn inside.  As he did, he opened up a lot more possibilities for himself and his teammates.  As you can see in the video below, there were far more red jerseys occupying the left flank.  When he turns inside, there’s plenty of space with which to work.  After passing the ball to Sousa, he doesn’t give up on the developing play.  Watch him continue to run into the North Texas half and doesn’t get picked up by the defense until Devin Boyce feeds a long ball toward the right corner.  Even with two defenders closing in on him quickly, he’s able to get the ball into the penalty area.  Despite the play not ending in a goal, that kind of movement off the ball is incredibly valuable to throwing off the defense.  It was an improvised, yet calculated run because Doyle had the situational awareness to spot the weakness in the North Texas defense.

            Almost immediately after that play ended, another bright tactical decision was made by Union Omaha.  North Texas was playing a conservative defense and their initial point of pressure seemed to be right at the half line.  So, Union Omaha developed a plan to stretch the defense and open up space for the offense to work.  As you watch the next gif, watch the backline and supporting midfield combine for multiple short passes.  This was the bait that they needed to draw North Texas players further up the field.  Once enough numbers were present, Union Omaha’s Damiá Viader quickly crossed the ball backward to teammate Blake Malone.  Once Malone settled the ball, he left it for Emir Alihodžić to quickly turn a lob a deep into the final third.  With the North Texas midfield drawn forward and the defense setting their line too far back, there was plenty of open space and the defense was left vulnerable and Alihodžić correctly identified a potential one-on-one downfield.  Union Omaha forward Greg Hurst was close to connecting with that pass, but North Texas goalkeeper Colin Shutler did well to leave his line and intercept the ball.  This is another case of great planning and good execution.

            Now if you paid attention to any of the possession statistics from the four previous matches between these two clubs, you noticed how much more North Texas had than Union Omaha.  If you don’t recall the numbers, I’ll help you out: over the past four matches against North Texas, Union Omaha possessed the ball on average 43.3% of the time.  Knowing this, Union Omaha had to plan for the eventuality of North Texas owning the majority of the possession again on this occasion.  It’s good that Union Omaha manager Jay Mims didn’t try to force the issue and make the Owls play a style of play they aren’t accustomed to.  Instead, he developed a plan to achieve multiple goals.  First step: pressure high.  Don’t let the backline get comfortable with the ball and don’t let the midfielders find the passing lanes.  Second step: move personnel from side to side to condense numbers wherever the ball is.  More players near the ball means the opponent has less time to think about what they’re going to do with the ball, limits them to one or two touches, disrupts their desired flow, and creates more chances for the Owls to capitalize on a mistake.

            Here’s another video for you to watch.  You can see North Texas swinging the ball across the backline and waiting for something to open up.  When they choose to attack down their right side, you can actually see the Union Omaha midfielders keep their line and shift to their left.  In fact, they shifted so much that Devin Boyce was practically inside the center circle.  At one point in the video, you can count six North Texas players within about 20 yards of one another.  In that same amount of space is eight Union Omaha defenders.  With passing windows and touches limited, North Texas dropped the ball and tried to quickly shift their attack to their left side.  Union Omaha, being the highly-disciplined squad that they are, adjusted just as quickly.  Now looking for attacking opportunities on the left side, North Texas players found themselves outnumber again: 4 to 6.  This time, North Texas forward Kalil Elmedkhar rushed his touch, Boyce was able to apply some pressure, and turned it over to Union Omaha captain Ferrety Sousa.

            Both clubs were moving the ball well, battling for possession, and fighting to gain another yard of space.  In order to break the deadlock, a moment of boldness would need to happen.  Enter Damiá Viader: the cunning Catalan with copious amounts of creativity to contribute.  In the 11^th minute, he received a pass about 15 yards inside of the North Texas half.  From the camera angle, he had no passing options available and plenty of red shirts in front of him.

So what does this guy decide to do?  Dribble straight at the defense.  This guy went full-on Leroy Jenkins mode, grabbed a Super Star from Super Mario, and took on the defense all by himself.  As he dribbled toward the goal, he didn’t even bother to juke the first defender.  He might as well have not even acknowledged his existence.  The next defender saw him coming a simply took a knee, clearly telling Viader that he’s not worthy of defending him.  Then, right as Viader gets to the top of the 18-yard box, the defenders start crowding him.  None of them were trying to push him or even trying to stab at the ball.  It’s almost as if they were escorting him into their own box.  It didn’t take long for Damiá to take full advantage of the opportunity because he lined up a shot for his right foot and went upper-90 to the near post.  North Texas’ goalkeeper, Colin Shutler, gave a good effort to parry the shot away, but wasn’t quick enough to get lateral.  It was a fantastic goal and Damiá’s fifth goal of the season.

            You would think North Texas would be rattled after such a goal, but they composed themselves very well.  Once the ensuing kickoff granted them possession, they made sure to keep it, move it around, and try to find the right space in Union Omaha’s defense.  They were easily stringing together ten passes, incorporating multiple players, and trying to work different angles.  It paid off in the 17^th minute.  Coincidentally, North Texas was able to connect 17 passes in a row before the goal.  The team was having a difficult time finding the right way to get the ball into the middle of the field.  Caiser Gomes, one of the North Texas defenders, received a pass and immediately sent the ball long and into a crowded middle of the field.  From there, a few one-touch passes and a scoop-pass by center midfielder Blaine Ferri that went over the Union Omaha defense was all that was needed to free Kalil Elmedkhar, get him in a one-on-one with Union Omaha goalkeeper Rashid Nuhu, and send the ball into the back of the net.

I could’ve sworn that Kalil ElMedkhar was offside, but after taking a screenshot, I think the referees made a good decision to avoid making the call.  In the screenshot provided below, it looks like ElMedkhar’s right foot is even with the right foot of Jacob Crull.  If there were to be an offside called, it would be because of ElMedkhar’s right shoulder possibly being inches in front of the defense, but that would require Video Assistant Referee (VAR) and USL League One doesn’t have that available.

            The rest of the first half was a possession battle between the two sides.  North Texas had a couple of good chances on goal and Union Omaha had a promising attempt, as well.  North Texas was beginning to gain more of a presence in the middle of the field.  As that happened, Union Omaha was seen to scramble a bit more.  The Owls tried to keep the ball away, but fast-breaks don’t often lend favorable chances for extended possessions, so they were forced to play more defense until the halftime whistle was blown.

            At the start of the second half, it seemed to play out a lot like the start of the first half.  North Texas was maintaining possession, Union Omaha was shifting personnel to create numbers in the area, and North Texas was fighting to find some space in the middle of the field.  There did seem to be a tactical shift with the North Texas defense.  Instead of letting themselves spread out and become vulnerable to thru-balls, they started showing more of a bunker defense.  This shift would create problems for Union Omaha because they had the personnel advantage in the final third, closed down passing lanes and crossing opportunities, and also closed down the shooting angles.

            It didn’t take long for North Texas to take the lead in the second half.  In the 53^rd minute, North Texas forward Kalil ElMedkhar, goal-scorer in the first half, received a pass right near the midline on the left side of the field.  He turned toward the Union Omaha half and quickly sent a curling long ball into Union Omaha’s penalty area, directly to the feet of teammate Freddy Vargas.  Without even taking a touch to settle the ball, Vargas slotted the ball under an advancing Rashid Nuhu and gave his club the lead.  The pass from ElMedkhar was beautifully executed and Vargas did well to finish the chance.  Nuhu seemed to feel there was a possibility of offside being called, but the camera angle and the speed at which it panned across the field didn’t allow viewers a chance to support his claims.

            For nearly half an hour, Union Omaha put the pressure on North Texas with little to show for it.  There were great chances in front of the net, like in the 75^th minute when Union Omaha forward Evan Conway had a clear chance at goal and head the ball past the far post.  He knew that he had a great chance before him and wasn’t afraid to show his frustration after the ball went out of bounds.  Union Omaha fans would only have to wait six more minutes before they could celebrate again.

            In the 81^st minute, Union Omaha defender Jacob Crull was able to win an aerial duel after a North Texas goal kick.  The ball found its way to teammate Evan Conway, who quickly combined with Damiá Viader to move the ball up the field.  Once Viader was running pace-for-pace with Conway on the left flank, Conway gave Viader the ball and broke his run toward the North Texas penalty area.  One of the North Texas defenders floated toward Viader and opened up a large gap for Conway.  Viader saw the space and fed the ball to Conway, who could barely settle the ball before Caiser Gomes was on top of Conway.  The window of opportunity was shrinking faster and faster as more defenders rushed toward him, but Conway was still able to get the ball in the net.  The immediate celebration let you know how much that goal meant to the squad.  Substitutes on the sideline joined in the celebration with all of the field players.  The team was tied with North Texas, on track to earn a point on the road as the end of the regular season inches closer, and Evan Conway just scored for the first time in 135 days.  There was plenty to celebrate.

            If you’ve noticed anything about the coaching style of Jay Mims, it’s that he’s not going to let the team settle with a tie.  Maybe he thinks ties are like kissing your sister or maybe he knows that one is the loneliest number.  Whatever the reason, Jay Mims put the fire back in the team’s belly and urged them to keep battling to the end of the match.  With the small amount of time left, Union Omaha was able to generate one more quality chance on goal.  Second-half sub Ricardo Rivera went one-on-one with Caiser Gomes in the penalty area, cut the ball back, and spotted Devin Boyce charging into the box.  Rivera connected a pass to Boyce, who lined up the shot from the right side of the penalty area.  Striking hard and low, aiming for the back post, everything seemed to go in slow motion as the ball crept across the box.  It looked promising.  It looked destined to go in, but ultimately the shot went just wide of the post.  Soon after, the referee blew the whistle to end the match.

            Union Omaha and North Texas have had truly impressive battles against each other and this occasion lived up to the expectations.  The Owls were happy to pick up a point on the road.  Both teams showed great persistence for the full 90 minutes.  These two clubs meet again during the very last match of the regular season.  With each passing week, every match gains more and more importance, so that last match will be a true joy to watch.

Howdy folks! (That’s a thing people in Texas say right?) That was a fun game of soccer played at a baseball stadium that has football lines, now wasn’t it. In my never ending quest to make this column easier to write, let’s dive in.

1) Goals given up at Globe Life Park.

This is definitely tweet material, but here is a really fun fact for you. Rashid Nuhu has never given up a goal to a player without MLS experience at Globe Life Park Choctaw Stadium. Let’s review:

8/23/2020 Goal 1: Edwin Cerrillo ( 15 MLS appearances, 1027 MLS minutes at the time of goal)
8/23/2020 Goal 2: Rayo (0 MLS appearances, 0 MLS minutes; BUT, this was scored on Sam Howard, so HA loophole)

9/19/2021 Goal 1: Kalil ElMedkhar (6 MLS appearances, 118 MLS minutes at the time of goal)
9/19/2021 Goal 2: Freddy Vargas (11 MLS appearances, 514 MLS minutes at the time of goal)

2) Formation Tweaks

There were a few topics vying for the 2nd spot this week, but all of them had a common theme which was the personnel we were using after the 72nd minute substitutions. While it is satisfying to see your team fight back to claim vital road points, it was even more satisfying to watch Jay Mims pull the strings like a magician from the sideline.

If you were following along at home, he made 3 substitutions, he replaced our leading scorer in the 67′, then did a double switch where swapped out a central midfielder (and took out the teams best aerial threat) and a winger (and our leading assist man) for an central defender and a defensive midfielder…AND IT WORKED!

We played a 4-4-2, but had Dami playing left wing, looking sublime, and Jake looking incredible at left back as well. All of this was supported by Evan Conway looking like his old self again with 4 shots on target (out of the team’s 5) and just luscious stats up and down the board.

Basically, no other way to say this, but that was a brutal TotW snub for Evan. Also, It was incredible to see Evan score again and draw level on the UO all-time scoring charts with Greg Hurst.

3) DAMI WATCH!

*breathes into a paper bag for 10 minutes*

I don’t know if there is a soccer equivalent of The Gordie Howe Hattrick, (Goal, Assist, Fight), but if there is it should be Goal, Assist, Yellow card. And our boy Dami earned his Sunday night with the banger, the point saving assist, and a spectacular yellow card for being correct at an inconvenient time for the ref.

Is this fair use? pic.twitter.com/vWrZ2bYKu8

— FKA Union_Omaha_Ben (@Buho_Nation_Ben) September 21, 2021

Back to the banger, were you watching Dami score this goal and thinking, “Holy Cow, I love watching Dami score goals on TV?” I was, and so I did some digging on Transfermarkt. Here’s another tweetable nugget, this season, all 5 of Dami’s goals and 3 of his 4 assists have come on the road. And since ending the scoring draught, he has been involved in 5 of the 7 goals we’ve scored. What a player.

But, you don’t have to take my word for it…

This guy is the MVP of the league and it’s not even close

— Tyler David (@T_David25) September 19, 2021

See you all at Morrison on Saturday. I’m expecting big things.