Data Dive: Decision Day Incoming

After the last couple interesting weeks (more draws) the playoff picture has come a bit clearer into focus. The best news: we’re in it. The unclear part is where at exactly. But that will be known by the end of this weekend. So let’s take a look at some numbers going into this last week of the regular season!

More Draws

After two draws these last two games against NCFC and Tormenta, this team has earned itself a place in USL League One history. We have been past the high for numbers of draws in Union Omaha history for a while now. However, this past one gave us sole position for the highest number of draws in a USL League One season, surpassing Madison’s 12 last year. It has been an admittedly short history, but 13 draws means that we have had almost HALF of our games end with the scores level. So if you felt like there have been a lot of them this season… you are record-setting-ly accurate. This last game could do that to an even greater extent, though hopefully it’s a win instead.

That’s because a win would not only guarantee us a home playoff game (a draw would as well) but give us a chance at a bye as well. With the table looking like this going into the final day:

We can finish anywhere between 2nd and 5th. Fortunately, Chatt and Tormenta play one another on the final day. So a loss plus a Tormenta win is the only way we slip to 5th. A draw guarantees us at least 4th, with 3rd being possible with a Tormenta win. A win is the only thing that at least guarantees us a shot at 2nd and would greatly improve our chances for at least 3rd. The trouble with 2nd is that Richmond and Greenville play with Richmond having already clinched. One could see them resting some players (as we did last season) heading into the playoffs, not to mention Greenville has a good record against the Kickers anyway. Still hope, but a single home playoff game is looking like the much more attainable goal.

Seriously, so many red cards against us

I’m not sure if it’s the stigma of being the defending champs or what exactly, but we really have continued to have so many red cards against us this season. We also have a lot of yellows against us as well, but that has evened out a little bit throughout the season, with new league leaders taking over that position. The table for each team in the league is below:

NCFC and NoCo have shot up in yellow cards against. We’re currently in fourth, with Chatt just overtaking us with their wild recent games. Even still, look how many red cards we’ve had against us this year! Double digits! 3 more than Fuego who has had the second most against. About half are straight reds while the others are second yellows. Fuego, NCFC, and Richmond also are right about half and half. It’s curious to see how the other teams lie, with Charlotte, Chatt, Hailstorm, Tormenta, and Tucson being teams that have more second yellows against them while Madison and Greenville have more straight reds. Admittedly in Madison’s case, three of those game in the same weird game against NoCo. I’d be curious to see if the discrepancy here is due to reffing, play style, having a target on your back for some reason, etc., as I’m not sure if there’s an obvious thing that sticks out to me about why it ended up in this distribution. Either way, a curious look at those numbers before the final game of the regular season.

Kit Choices

One choice that needs to be made is what to wear. Both for all of the fans heading there (supposed to be a somewhat chilly) as well as the team itself. During the pod this week, there was some discussion of which uniform combination would be good to pick. Earlier in the season when that conversation came up, I did a first update on kit combo records. Well, here’s the updated data on those records (these include Open Cup):

The Blue goalkeeper kits have the most wins for us, while also having a decent number of draws and losses. The Gray jersey has been very hit and miss. Finally, the Volt kit has seen the majority (barely) of our record number of draws.

As far as the kit combinations themselves, the all white option has been our most used this season. It’s done pretty well, too, but also with that large share of games also has more losses than any of the others. The all black uniforms, which were mentioned on the pod, are a bit more draw heavy, mostly due to the home draws we’ve had in the second half of the season. Unfortunately we have never done a kit with all three of the colors, which was one option mentioned on the pod. We also haven’t done Black/Volt/Black as Shaft mentioned liking the idea of. The closest to that is the Black/Black/Volt combination, which gave us our home win against Charlotte as well as the Open Cup win up in Minnesota. Maybe it is time we see that option return? We will see if that, or if anything, can help pull us to a win and at least 1 home playoff game.

Tormenta FC Preview

Union Omaha (10-12-6, 3rd Place) vs South Georgia Tormenta FC (11-8-9, 4th Place)

All competitions: OMA (14-12-7) vs TRM (13-8-10)

Werner Park – Papillion, Nebraska

7:00 PM (CST)            ESPN+

            A huge game with playoff implications kicks off at 7 tonight, as #4-ranked Tormenta FC travels to Werner Park for the first time in 2022 to face #3-ranked Union Omaha.

            In a season where over half of the clubs in the league earned only four wins on the road, Tormenta FC has doubled that win total.  And make no mistake about it: they intend to add one more to that count tonight against Union Omaha, tonight.  Having only lost once in their last five matches, Tormenta FC is closing their regular season with high ambitions.  Before those aforementioned five matches, Tormenta FC was in seventh place, hoping to squeak into the playoffs.  There were murmurs of this Tormenta FC team extending their streak of never making the playoffs.  Now, the club is in fourth place and could rise even higher with another win.

            A big reason for their success is the pairing of forward Kazaiah Sterling and midfielder Adrian Billhardt.  Sterling leads the club with 12 goals, 36 shots (25 on target), and has the least amount of minutes between goals (125.6).  Billhardt ranks next in the list of each of those categories.  Another highly influential player for Tormenta FC is midfielder, and team captain,  Gabriel de Freitas.  He has the second-most minutes and starts on the team, ranks among the highest in passes per 90 minutes, and creates a lot of chances in the final third.  His invisible labor has been greatly appreciated by his teammates this season.

            Union Omaha look to take advantage of playing in front of a possible record crowd at Werner Park tonight and take ownership of the three points on the line.  The Owls play their last two games of the regular season at home, where they have only lost two matches all season.  Tormenta FC may have performed well on the road in other stadiums, but tonight’s crowd could be a game-changer.  Union Omaha players will look to feed off the imposing energy of the crowd and make life even more difficult for their opposition on the field.

            Though the Owls drew against North Carolina FC last week, the team saw strong performances from left back Ryen Jiba, center midfielder Conor Doyle, and the goal-scoring forward Corey Hertzog.  The stability of JP Scearce next to Doyle in the middle will create a lot of trouble for Tormenta FC players, not to mention the center back pairing of Daltyn Knutson and Alex Touche, who combined to lose only two duels last week.  Union Omaha fans will hope to see the return of Golden Glove leader Rashid Nuhu in net, as well.

            The implications of tonight’s match are huge.  For both teams, it’s simple: win or draw and you’re in the playoffs.  Let’s be honest, neither team is simply looking to lock up a playoff spot tonight.  With a first-round bye within sight, both teams are clamoring for that finish to the regular season.  In order for either team to finish second place at the end of the regular season, they need to win out to control their destiny, but also need a little help along the way.  Having Greenville lose or draw tonight to Charlotte would be of great help, as well as Chattanooga losing or drawing to North Carolina tonight.  Both teams would love the extra week of rest, as well as the opportunity to play in front of the home crowd.

            In the previous two matches between these clubs, things got a little heated.  During the Week 3 matchup, played to a scoreless draw, there were six yellow cards and a straight red card.  In the Week 13 matchup, in which Union Omaha won 3-2, there were 7 yellow cards, 2 of which led to a soft red card to the same player as the first matchup, Tormenta FC’s Joshua Phelps.  With the recent spell of red cards raining down on matches in recent weeks, tonight could be another card-friendly occasion.

            Tonight is Hispanic Heritage Night at Werner Park, so get to the stadium early to celebrate with the rest of the fans and go to the tailgates.  There’s sure to be plenty of music, food, beverages, and fun people.  Once the gates open, make sure you get inside, get your merchandise, and are at your seat when the teams take the field.  You may have purchased a ticket for your seat, but you won’t be sitting much tonight.  Stand up, display your colors proudly, make as much noise as you can, and cheer the Owls on to victory.  As always…¡Viva Búhos!

North Carolina Preview

North Carolina (8-5-14, 11th Place) vs Union Omaha (10-11-6, 3rd Place)

All competitions: NC (8-5-15) vs OMA (14-11-7)

WakeMed Soccer Park – Cary, North Carolina

6:00 PM (CST)            ESPN+

            Union Omaha looks to lock up a playoff berth in tonight’s road match against North Carolina FC.  The match kicks off at 6 PM (CST) and will be broadcast on ESPN+.

            Despite sitting in 11th place in the USL League One standings, North Carolina is still mathematically in the race for the playoffs.  With a loss tonight, all of those hopes get thrown out the window, as they’ll be eliminated from playoff contention.  In their last 10 matches, they’ve only managed to collect 11 points, while scoring 10 goals.  This is a stark contrast to the first half of the season, where the club spent 12 of the first 15 weeks above the playoff threshold.  Every week since Week 16, the club has sat in either 10th or 11th place.

            In the first half of the season, North Carolina was highly reliant upon forward Garrett McLaughlin.  By Week 15, McLaughlin had scored 8 goals and was leading the Golden Boot Race.  While he may still be in the race for the Golden Boot, the second of the season has seen his goal-scoring capabilities drop ever so slightly, scoring 6 goals in 13 matches.  The next closest goal scorer for North Carolina is Oalex Anderson with 5 goals in 23 appearances.  The club, as a whole, has managed to only 1 more goal than Union Omaha this season, yet they have also allowed 17 more goals into their own net.

            For Union Omaha, this is the perfect week to focus on their game, finish their chances, and return to Omaha with three points in hand.  Despite dropping three of their last five, Union Omaha’s offense has looked very potent.  Case in point: the Northern Colorado match.  Union Omaha was pressing relentlessly and serving balls across the goalmouth time and time again.  The only thing missing was a finisher on the receiving end of those crosses, who was more often in a full out stretch in an attempt to connect with the ball.  The Owls are so close to clicking.  The buildup play is looking good, possessions are more confident, and the players are keeping the game within reach.  Keep believing.

            With his goal against Northern Colorado, Noe Meza has extended his lead as the club’s leading goal scorer with 9 goals.  JP Scearce is right behind him with 7 goals.  Joe Brito and Conor Doyle have been creating chances in the attacking third, as well.  Doyle has been displaying a true marksman ability with his offensive acumen and passing into the final third.  His vision has been a true blessing for the Owls as they set up around the penalty area, or squeezing a pass into tight spaces.  Speaking of leadership, Daltyn Knutson has been leading the charge of the backline, keeping the line tight, and dominating his duels in recent weeks.  His experience is on full display as the veteran routinely thwarts the opponent.  There’s never enough that can be said of goalkeeper Rashid Nuhu.  Club’s know who they are shooting against, but just as a good reminder, Nuhu should wear golden gloves every week.  There’s a good reason why he’s wining that race.

            These two clubs concluded their season series tonight and it hasn’t been pretty for North Carolina.  While the first match was a hard-fought draw in Cary, North Carolina, the following match was the exact opposite.  With the sun setting and the wind blowing, the match kicked off.  Less than 20 seconds after the whistle blew, Union Omaha was on top, thanks to a goal from goalkeeper Kevin Piedrahita.  Then, mere minutes later, Corey Hertzog sent a curler into the far post to double lead.  Meza tripled the lead in the 17th minute, then quadrupled the score in the 58th minute.  Only one player has scored more than one goal in this series: Noe Meza.  Frustrations grew for North Carolina, who saw more red cards than goals scored.  The club suffered two red cards in the second half, one straight and one soft.  By the time the final whistle blew, Union Omaha had finished bludgeoning the 9-man North Carolina team with a score of 4-1.

            Just as Union Omaha fans were recovering from the bye week and ramping up their excitement for tonight’s match, the club made an announcement on Friday.  In the press release, the club announced the signing of goalkeeper Christian Eduardo Olivera.  Depending on the approval of league and federation, he could be available as soon as tonight.  The highly-touted goalkeeper will be a great addition to the team, with quality learning experiences from the veteran players ahead of him, as well as the coaching staff.

            If you aren’t headed to the Benson Theater tonight, make sure you find yourself in front of a television before kickoff.  This is going to be a great night of Union Omaha soccer and you don’t want to miss a second of it!  Wherever you find yourself tonight, wear the colors proudly and be loud for the Owls.  Cheer them on to victory and the playoffs.  As always…¡Viva Búhos!

Union Omaha Signs Goalkeeper Olivares

            With two weeks left in the USL League One regular season, Union Omaha added more depth to the goalkeeper position, signing Christian Eduardo Olivares.  Pending league and federation approval, Olivares could be available as soon as tonight, when Union Omaha travels to North Carolina FC.

            The 6-foot-4 inch Californian joins the Owls just as the club engages in some intense matches before the end of the regular season.  The highly-touted goalkeeper prospect brings with him valuable experience from the Real Monarchs – Real Salt Lake Academy and USL Championship club, as well as his collegiate career at Salt Lake City CC.  While minding the net for the Monarchs, he helped the club win the USL Championship title in 2019.

            The move to Union Omaha also reunites Olivares with former college teammate Ryen Jiba.  In the two seasons that Olivares played for Salt Lake City CC, he recorded 72 saves, 13 clean sheets, and a goal-against average of 0.42 goals per game.  After playing 28 games for the Bruins, Olivares only allowed a total of 11 goals and never allowing more than 2 goals in a single game.

            Union Omaha Head Coach Jay Mims had plenty of kind words and enthusiasm for the new signing.  In the club’s press release, posted yesterday, Mims said, “Christian is a talented young goalkeeper who comes from some great environments with Salt Lake City CC and Real Salt lake Academy.”  He described Olivares’s potential by saying, “He will add immediate depth in that position for us and will be able to learn and grow with our current experienced players in a competitive professional environment.”

            Olivares released a short statement for the same press release.  In it, he said, “I’m super excited to be part of this group and help in any way to win a championship!”

            The 20 year-old adds depth to the already-deep goalkeeper position and could provide some rest and respite to starter Rashid Nuhu, while inserting some competition for backup Kevin Piedrahita.

            Union Omaha currently sits in third place in the USL League One standings and looks to continue its title defense as the club heads to North Carolina FC for a crucial match that could see the Owls lock up a playoff berth.  After tonight’s match, the club has two remaining games in the season, both at home.  With only two weeks left in the season, there’s sure to be some drama, so make sure you have your tickets for those home games.  Playoff tickets have also started going on sale, so go to Union Omaha’s website to purchase those tickets, as well.

            Keep checking in with Who Gives A Hoot Media for more content related to Union Omaha.  We have new episodes of the podcast each week and great articles to read on the website, as well.  With the regular season coming to an end, the action and drama are only starting to take off and we’ll keep you updated on everything you need to know.

Data Dive: 1 of Our Worst Stretchs

We knew coming in to this season that this stretch would be difficult. That unfortunately proved to be very true. So let’s briefly go back through the events of the past two weeks and see what the data can tell us.

Nothing gold can stay

How bad of a stretch has it actually been? Well… it’s tied for the worst four-game stretch in club history. 1 point in 4 games matches the previous worst mark from 2020, where we drew with Tormenta before going on a three-game losing streak. We let in 9 goals during this streak, which is about 1/3 of the total goals we’ve allowed in the league this season. So that is 20 goals in 23 games vs 9 in 4, yikes. This form isn’t necessarily as recent as this past stretch either, as if we include the three game week prior to this past stretch it paints an even clearer picture. We let in 16 goals in the first 20 games vs 13 in the last 7 games.

Part of that surely coincides with Bawa’s injury, which happened in game 18 for us. Since then, we just have not looked as good defensively, especially after Touche’s injury and him still coming back to form.

Another defending note: Prior to this season we had never let an opponent score 3 goals against us in a game. That’s now happened 4 times: Richmond twice, Tucson once, and SKC in the cup. Note that aside from the SKC game, the other three have been in the last 7 games.

The attacking side has looked a bit better, but we’ve been struggling to finish chances off. We scored 4 goals in these 4 games… 3 of which were penalties. Not ideal. Especially since our xG has been over 1 in most of the 4 games. In fact, shown below, our xG against NoCo was the *highest difference of the season*. Yet we only scored once and they beat us. These past two games we’ve looked the better team (more on Richmond in a minute), yet we have not been able to put enough in the net to get points. A truly poor run of form indeed.

When sorrows (late goals) come, they come in battalions!

We have also let in a particular type of goal in this run that we normally don’t: late goals. They have been more common this season in general, but this stretch really bears it out. In the last two seasons combined we gave up 3 goals at the 80th minute or later. The numbers of goals this season in the 80the minute or later? 9. And this stretch had 4 of them.

As brought up in a pod from earlier this season (#106 after the Charlotte game), we had only once dropped points that late in prior seasons: the home draw vs Chattanooga in 2021 after JP’s red card. That Charlotte game mentioned on that pod was the first time we’ve ever lost a game that late, while also being the only time we had led and then not gotten points from a game. Well, that game has company now. This past stretch we lost 2 more games after the 80′, Richmond and NoCo, and dropped points to Greenville as well after that mark. That Richmond game also joins the club as being only the second time that we’ve ever led a game and got nothing from it, now twice in 73 league games.

That is part of why this run has felt so bad. Most of the games we dropped points late when we have been good about not doing so this season. We’ve won eight 1-goal games this season. In three of those games, we’ve had to hold on to the lead for a while and been admirable in doing so. The first game in Chattanooga, where we scored in the second minute and held on for the rest of the game despite giving up massive chances. The game in Fresno where we scored in the first half after saving a penalty and held on despite some great late chances. But for the moment, that fortitude has seemed to disappear. Whether it’s a momentary lapse or something more costly, we’ll have to see over the last month of the season.

Hope is the thing with feathers

And thankfully, owl do indeed have feathers. We thankfully have a rest period for the next week and a half. Hopefully the team can recover from some of the knocks picked up over the last stretch of games during that time. Then we end the season with the following:

at North Carolina FC – Currently sitting in last place but with games in hand, they could be eliminated from playoff contention by the time we next play the if they fail to pick up points in the two games they have before then. The last time in the Research Triangle area was a draw (and a bit rainy, from personal experience) but the team is hopefully fired up to put in a shift for our last regular season away game.

vs South Georgia Tormenta – They are an improved team this year and currently the only opponent left in a playoff place. They open up their new stadium (maybe finally?) against Richmond the week before. That could be a taxing experience in that game with the expectation it will most likely hold, so we’ll see how they are feeling come the next week for our game. As afterwards they end the season home against a Red Wolves team they are currently jockeying for position with.

vs Central Valley Fuego – This one is going to be interesting, as currently they have games in hand that will help decide if they will be a playoff contender come this last game. However, they also get 10 days off before playing us, as they are the team left out having to play the second to last weekend of the season. It’s a bit too early to tell how that’s going to set up this game.

Making playoffs is not a given, but very likely (as it could even happen this weekend without us playing). Getting a home playoff game is not a given, but is a good goal to shoot for. And if we can turn things back around, the #2 seed is even possible as well. We should probably be a bit more realistic in how we can recover from this run and just look towards a home playoff spot… but … hope is the thing with feathers, and never stops, at all.

Northern Colorado Preview

Northern Colorado Hailstorm FC (8-8-10, 7th Place) vs Union Omaha (10-11-5, 2nd Place)

All competitions: NCO (10-8-11) vs OMA (14-11-6)

Severance High School – Severance, Colorado

9:00 PM (CDT) ESPN+

Union Omaha makes their first trip to the state of Colorado for USL League One action tonight as the Owls take on the Northern Colorado Hailstorm FC tonight at 9 PM CST on ESPN+.

The Hailstorm have only won three in their last ten games, yet still remain in the hunt for the playoffs.  The club has often played the role of the wildcard in League One with unpredictable results from surprising upsets to disappointing dropped points.  The club has called Severance High School their home since August 2nd, but have not yielded great results in their new confines.  In five games played at the high school, the club has won two games and lost three.

Northern Colorado has played eight midweek games and seven of them were played at home.  Their overall record in midweek games is three wins, one draw, and four losses.  The Hailstorm have not won a midweek home game since Thursday, June 30th.  Since then, the club has played four midweek games, lost all of them, and were outscored 2-6 in the process.

Union Omaha has seen more success in their midweek matches, only losing once in five games.  The only loss in that run of time came at the hands of recent visitor, the Richmond Kickers, who came from behind to win the game.  The Owls only other away game to take place in the middle of the week was a 0-0 draw at Forward Madison  on July 26th.

When Hailstorm takes the field, they’ll do so with a cast of characters that go about their business quietly, yet can make some noise when they want.  Irvin Parra leads the team with 11 goals, only 5 behind the current Golden Boot leader.  He has 50 shots on the season, with 25 of them on target.  All 11 of his goals have happened inside the box, so Union Omaha’s defense will have to be keenly aware of Parra and his whereabouts at all times.

Other players on the team that Union Omaha should be mindful of include midfielder Arthur Rogers, who leads the team with 8 assists and 67 chances created (more than the next two teammates combined).  Trevor Amann, often seen advancing up the field, has 5 goals, 3 assists, and has 18 shots on goal in 38 total shots.  Amann was also voted Player of the Week in Week 23 for his hat trick against North Carolina FC.  Lachlan McLean, the TikTok superstar, was voted alongside Amann as a member of the Team of the Week in Week 23.

The drama in Omaha has taken on a new level in recent weeks, but the Owls have looked to have a resurgence in their energy.  Their confidence on the ball, passing, and productive possessions have seemed to increase in the last few weeks and the team looks dangerous on offense.  Noe Meza still leads the team in goals (8), assists (4), shots (40), and shots on target (14).  JP Scearce isn’t far behind Meza, having scored seven goals this season.  Mid-season signing Corey Hertzog has made his presence known on the field, scoring three goals, having the highest conversion rate of any teammate (27.3%), and having the fewest minutes between goals (177).  Goalkeeper Rashid Nuhu has been his usual self and when I say usual, I mean exceptionally good.  In 23 appearances this season, Nuhu has 9 clean sheets and leads the Golden Glove race.

Since Hailstorm is new to League One, there haven’t been many games between the two clubs.  With that said, Hailstorm and Union Omaha will end the regular season having played each other more than any other teams in the league because of the US Open Cup game earlier this season.  The first game between the two clubs came by way of the Open Cup, not a league game.  Hailstorm and the Owls have played three games, with Union Omaha winning one and the other two finishing as a draw.  In league play, both games ended in draws.  Today will be the first time Union Omaha has played at Northern Colorado, so we’ll see how much of an effect elevation has on the Owls.

Tonight will be a great opportunity to put some pressure on first-placed Richmond, create some distance from third-placed Greenville, and allow the Owls to gain some confidence as the team heads into the final stretch of the regular season.  Whether you’re at a watch party, streaming at home, or lucky enough to be in the stadium tonight, wear the colors and be loud for the Owls.  They deserve every bit of our support, so let the team know they’re loved and supported ahead of tonight’s game.  As always…¡Viva Búhos!

Greenville Preview

Union Omaha (10-10-5, 2nd Place) vs Greenville (11-6-8, 3rd Place)

All competitions: OMA (14-10-6) vs GVL (12-6-9)

Werner Park – Papillion, Nebraska

7:00 PM (CST)            ESPN+

            The Owls welcome the Triumph as the second and third placed clubs face off in a battle filled with playoff implications.  The regular season series ends tonight at Werner Park with a 7 PM kickoff.

            The Triumph look to reverse their recent run of form as they are winless in their last three.  Those results have an added sting to the burn because only one of those clubs is currently above the playoff threshold.  A win tonight would lift them back into the driver seat and enable them to control their own destiny, which at this point is a first-round bye in the playoffs.  The Triumph had success in Omaha during their latest visit, so tonight could be a repeat of tactics, involving their stellar midfield.

            When the Triumph take the field, head coach John Harkes will have a deep roster from which to choose.  Up top, newcomer Jacob Labovitz has attracted a lot of attention and rightfully so – he’s scored 11 goals, has 50 shots, and 24 of those shots have been on target.  He’s been a routine threat to defenses and goalkeepers this season.  There are plenty of other noteworthy players on the team, but another player that continues to stand out is midfielder Allen Gavilanes.  So far this season, he has 4 goals, 4 assists, 45 chances created, and has taken 36 shots, 21 of which were on target.  They have a strong offense, a disciplined defense, and have displayed it time and time again this season.

            Union Omaha wants to play another game as soon as possible and erase the recent memories of the Richmond game, which resulted in a 2-3 loss at home earlier this week.  The Owls took the lead a couple of times, but then gave up a pair of goals late in the second half and saw their victory turn into a defeat.  A win tonight will create a four-point gap between themselves and the Triumph, which would go a long way towards locking up a first-round bye in the playoffs.  Despite recent results, the Owls have looked good on the ball and have shown a lot of positive energy.  This team looks mentally strong enough to leave the past in the past and take on the next challenge.

            The regular season series between these two has seen a scoreless draw, followed by a Greenville victory in Omaha earlier this season.  As a result, the Green Belt has stayed in Greenville for most of the season.  Tonight will be a chance for the Owls to win and keep the Belt in Omaha until the next meeting.  Will the Owls and Triumph meet in the playoffs for the third consecutive season?  If so, tonight will be a great preview to the game.

            Make sure you get to Werner Park early today because the club is celebrating Oktoberfest.  From 3-6 PM, a special Oktoberfest tailgate will be held in the parking lot.  With it comes the Happy Players polka band, beer vendors, local food trucks, t-shirts, koozies, and a limited-edition stein.  Come early to celebrate good times with good people and stay late to celebrate more good times with good people.  Tonight’s game is another crucial step towards the playoffs, so fill the stands and be loud.  As always…¡Viva Búhos!

Richmond Preview

Union Omaha (10-10-4, 2ndPlace) vs Richmond (12-5-7, 1st Place)

All competitions: OMA (14-10-5) vs RIC (14-5-8)

Werner Park – Papillion, Nebraska

7:00 PM (CST)            ESPN+

            It’s a battle for the top spot in the league as the top-seeded Richmond Kickers make their first visit to Werner Park in 11 months.  Get to Werner Park early, pack the stadium, and make some noise ahead of the 7 PM kickoff.

            Richmond is riding high after two straight wins against current top-6 clubs.  Last week, Richmond hosted Tormenta FC and defeated them with a final score of 3-1.  Two weeks prior, Richmond hosted Union Omaha and punished them with a 3-0 win – the worst league loss for the Owls since their first season in USL League One, back in 2020.  When Richmond plays at home, they are a force to be reckoned with.  On the road…not so much.

            Across 11 league games on the road this season, Richmond has only captured 14 points.  Even worse: when facing current top-6 clubs on the road, Richmond has only captured 4 points across 4 games, being outscored 4-7.  Tonight’s game means a lot to them, as a loss could irreparably harm their chances of earning a first-round bye and ensure an away game in the semifinals.  The club has six games left in their regular season, three of which are away games against current top-six clubs.  If they are to win tonight, they will need offensive production, which is good news for them.

            Richmond has an arsenal of goal scorers, chance creators, and shot takers.  Case in point: forwards Emiliano Terzaghi and Jonathan Bolanos.  Terzaghi is the current Golden Boot leader by three goals, having scored 15 goals across 24 appearances.  The next highest scorer on the Kickers is Bolanos with 6 goals in 15 appearances.  Terzaghi and Bolanos lead, or nearly lead, in virtually every offensive statistics under the Kicker’s roof this season.  Another high-profile threat on their roster is midfielder Nil Vinyals, who leads the club with 42 chances created.  On defense, the club boasts one of the league’s better goalkeepers, as well.  Akira Fitzgerald leads the league with 79 saved shots on goal.  With only five clean sheets, he may not be the Golden Glove winner, but he’s not far out of the conversation.

            Union Omaha has experienced their share of highs and lows in recent weeks, but tonight could certainly erase those lows and set up an exciting sprint to the finish line.  After suffering their worst league loss in club history while on the road at Richmond, the Owls immediately shrugged off that performance with home victories against Forward Madison and Chattanooga, both while playing a man down.  Those highs were once again faced with an equally poor road performance, as then last-placed FC Tucson repeated Richmond’s scoreline of 3-0.  With only a point separating the Owls from the Kickers, Union Omaha could put themselves in a great position to not only receive a first-round bye, but also capture the regular season title.

            These two clubs have only face each other a grand total of five times, with only two of those occasions taking place in Werner Park.  Richmond hasn’t scored inside the confines of Werner Park in two years.  Union Omaha has only one victory across all five matchups, Richmond has two, and the rest were draws.  These matchups have tended to attract yellow cards, but it has never been anything worrisome or egregious.  There has never been a red card shown when these two clubs face each other, either.

            Tonight will be a crucial match, so don’t miss out on any of the action.  Whether you’re on the berm, in the stands, or watching at home, cheer loudly and make sure the Owls feel an extra dose of inspiration.  Three points tonight will be huge, so be loud!  As always…¡Viva Búhos!

FC Tucson Preview

FC Tucson (5-5-12, 11th Place) vs Union Omaha (10-10-3, 2nd Place)

All competitions: TUC (6-5-13) vs OMA (14-10-4)

Kino North Stadium – Tucson, Arizona

9:00 PM (CST)            ESPN+

            Union Omaha has only three roads games remaining in the regular season and tonight, the Owls travel to Tucson to finish the season series against FC Tucson.  Kickoff is scheduled for 9 PM (CST) and you can find the broadcast on ESPN+.

            With mere weeks left in the season, last-placed FC Tucson continues to find itself on the playoff radar.  FC Tucson has 8 games left in their regular season, is 13 points away from the playoff line, and needs every point possible to stay relevant in the playoff discussions.  In their last five weeks, the club has picked up seven points and looks to be acting more like an agent of chaos than a playoff contender.  That chaos could extend a week further with a result tonight.

            In Week 23, FC Tucson played two games: an away game at Central Valley Fuego FC and a home game against Charlotte Independence.  Despite losing by a goal to Fuego, Tucson was able to return the favor against Charlotte and win by a goal.  The results eked them three points closer to their closest neighbor in the standings – North Carolina FC, with whom they have a game in hand.  With a win tonight, FC Tucson would jump past North Carolina FC and remove themselves from last place, where they’ve resided since Week 10.  In order to do so, they’ll need to maintain their strong defensive performances while continuing to find offensive production on the opposite end of the field.

            On offense, FC Tucson has found goal production in unlikely places: midfielder Louis Pérez and defender Donny Toia, who each lead the club with four goals.  Pérez also flexes as the shooter and chance creator of the team, leading the club in shots (26), assists (6), and chances created (40).  Another unlikely source of goal production comes from defender, a former Union Omaha player, Jacob Crull.  His two goals on the season ties him with forwards Fernando Garcia and Franco Pérez.

            Across 22 games this season, FC Tucson has scored 23 goals.  At home, FC Tucson has scored eight goals in ten games.  In their last five home games, FC Tucson has scored five goals while allowing six, which speaks to the general trend of their season – they’ve had more games decided by a single goal than any club in USL League One.  This is a club that keeps the scoreline tight and plays to the final whistle.

            Union Omaha’s reign atop the USL League One standings lasted 96 hours and was the only span of time where the Owls could be observed in their perch.  Luckily, Union Omaha has momentum on their side, having defeated Forward Madison and Chattanooga Red Wolves after having gone down a man in both contests.  The red card seen against the Red Wolves, shown to forward Corey Hertzog, was rescinded and Hertzog is available to play in tonight’s game, whether he plays is another debate.  Next week, Union Omaha has a midweek home game against Richmond, followed by a weekend home game against Greenville – the two other clubs closely-contesting Union Omaha for the first-round bye in the playoffs.  Union Omaha manager Jay Mims will have to be mindful of load management, injuries, and card accumulation as these three games are played in less than a week.

            FC Tucson and Union Omaha have the kind of relationship that is best suited by their distance.  Including last year’s playoff game, Union Omaha has won eight of the nine games ever played and remains undefeated in four games at Kino North Stadium.  While the scoreline and record favors Union Omaha, the real contest between these two sides involves yellow cards and red cards.  Yes, plural for both.

            In the first 5 matchups, FC Tucson earned 10 yellow cards to Union Omaha’s 15 and neither side saw a single red card.  That all seemed to change on the fateful night when FC Tucson and Union Omaha played at Morrison Stadium in Omaha, Nebraska.  That night, FC Tucson earned five yellows cards to Union Omaha’s two.  Across the remaining 4 games, Morrison included, the clubs would go on to earn 33 cards.  Even though a straight red card has never been shown, the past three games have featured a red card.  Aside from last year’s playoff game, every game has been a low-scoring affair.  The same cannot be said regarding yellow and red cards.

            If the Owls are to reclaim first place in the standings, they have to win tonight.  Make sure you are in front of the television to support the Owls and cheer them on to victory.  With each passing week, the race gets tighter and tighter, so don’t miss out on any of the action ahead.  Stay tuned to Who Gives A Hoot for more content as the regular season ends and the playoffs approach.  Wear the colors, cheer loudly, and as always…¡Viva Búhos!

Data Dive: But How Rare Can It Really Be?

This Data Dive is going to be a bit different from normal, it’s actually going to only break down a single topic. It’s the same topic that I qualified on the podcast this past week. That issue: That winning two games in a row with a red card in each game was rare. I mentioned that it would be a lot of work to actually check that to assure if it has or hasn’t happened before….. so that’s what my week ended up being. Let’s examine how rare that could be!

Firstly, two red cards in consecutive game

How often does it happen that you get two red cards in consecutive games? That’s pretty rare on its own. I’m going to look at data from the last 4 seasons (2019 – 2022). Why 4? Because it’s the number of seasons USL League 1 has existed. I’ll be using data from USL1, USLC, and MLS to look through (sorry NISA) and see what has all happened in the past 4 years.

USL1 has had 17 times where teams have gotten reds in back to back games. For USLC, that number is 28 and MLS it’s 16. Well, sort of. As there have been times in those leagues where teams have gotten reds more than 2 games in a row!

Teams have received reds 3 games in a row 3 times in MLS and 6 times in the Championship. Not only that, there have been 2 times in the last 4 years that USLC teams received a red 4 games in a row. Loudoun in 2019 went 1-3 in those 4 games. New York Red Bulls 2 matched that mark earlier this year, also going 1-3 in 4 straight games with a red.

Secondly, how many of those are two wins in a row?

As you can get a sense for above, many of these games are going to be losses. According to a statistic (taken from what looks like a Motivational Speaker site, so maybe taken with a grain of salt) only < 25% of games where a team receives a red card do they win. That does tend to reflect the data I’m seeing for multiple games in a row with a red card though, as wins happened about 22.7% of the time in this set of games compared to 18.2% for draws and 59.1% for losses.

Winning two of those games in a row, though, is definitely rarer. It’s happened in the cup this year, with Inter Miami getting two wins in a row while receiving a red in each game (though the opposing teams also did as well in those games).

It’s also happened in League 1 before. So, alas, we are not the first to this particular mark. That falls to… you guessed it, Greenville. In 2021 Greenville beat Toronto 2 and Red Wolves, getting a red in each game. The Chattanooga game also had a Red Wolves red card and the one in the Toronto 2 game was a very late card, essentially after the win was wrapped up already. A number of others were like those games, either a late red card or something else also happened against the other team. There were only 3 times in total that it happened throughout league play for the 3 leagues in a 4 year span.

It hasn’t happened in MLS, but has in the Championship. San Diego Loyal, earlier this season, scored a winning goal when both teams were down a player and then won a game down a player. Also, back in 2020 Charlotte Independence played in the Championship and beat two teams in a row, though they won one of the games while even and then only lost a player very late. So that leaves us to that last question.

Finally, what about two wins in a row from non-winning positions when the red cards were issued?

This, what we did against Madison this past week, is the first time it has ever happened in USL League 1. Going back to 2019, it never happened in MLS or the USL Championship. So for specifically the case where teams were down a player, this was the first time in at least the past 4 years it has happened in either of these leagues. That is just how rare last week was for not only us, but in respect to the game of soccer in general.

Now, lets see what we can do on the fun 4-game stretch ahead! I wonder if you can tell who we play…