We knew coming in to this season that this stretch would be difficult. That unfortunately proved to be very true. So let’s briefly go back through the events of the past two weeks and see what the data can tell us.
Nothing gold can stay
How bad of a stretch has it actually been? Well… it’s tied for the worst four-game stretch in club history. 1 point in 4 games matches the previous worst mark from 2020, where we drew with Tormenta before going on a three-game losing streak. We let in 9 goals during this streak, which is about 1/3 of the total goals we’ve allowed in the league this season. So that is 20 goals in 23 games vs 9 in 4, yikes. This form isn’t necessarily as recent as this past stretch either, as if we include the three game week prior to this past stretch it paints an even clearer picture. We let in 16 goals in the first 20 games vs 13 in the last 7 games.
Part of that surely coincides with Bawa’s injury, which happened in game 18 for us. Since then, we just have not looked as good defensively, especially after Touche’s injury and him still coming back to form.
Another defending note: Prior to this season we had never let an opponent score 3 goals against us in a game. That’s now happened 4 times: Richmond twice, Tucson once, and SKC in the cup. Note that aside from the SKC game, the other three have been in the last 7 games.
The attacking side has looked a bit better, but we’ve been struggling to finish chances off. We scored 4 goals in these 4 games… 3 of which were penalties. Not ideal. Especially since our xG has been over 1 in most of the 4 games. In fact, shown below, our xG against NoCo was the *highest difference of the season*. Yet we only scored once and they beat us. These past two games we’ve looked the better team (more on Richmond in a minute), yet we have not been able to put enough in the net to get points. A truly poor run of form indeed.
When sorrows (late goals) come, they come in battalions!
We have also let in a particular type of goal in this run that we normally don’t: late goals. They have been more common this season in general, but this stretch really bears it out. In the last two seasons combined we gave up 3 goals at the 80th minute or later. The numbers of goals this season in the 80the minute or later? 9. And this stretch had 4 of them.
As brought up in a pod from earlier this season (#106 after the Charlotte game), we had only once dropped points that late in prior seasons: the home draw vs Chattanooga in 2021 after JP’s red card. That Charlotte game mentioned on that pod was the first time we’ve ever lost a game that late, while also being the only time we had led and then not gotten points from a game. Well, that game has company now. This past stretch we lost 2 more games after the 80′, Richmond and NoCo, and dropped points to Greenville as well after that mark. That Richmond game also joins the club as being only the second time that we’ve ever led a game and got nothing from it, now twice in 73 league games.
That is part of why this run has felt so bad. Most of the games we dropped points late when we have been good about not doing so this season. We’ve won eight 1-goal games this season. In three of those games, we’ve had to hold on to the lead for a while and been admirable in doing so. The first game in Chattanooga, where we scored in the second minute and held on for the rest of the game despite giving up massive chances. The game in Fresno where we scored in the first half after saving a penalty and held on despite some great late chances. But for the moment, that fortitude has seemed to disappear. Whether it’s a momentary lapse or something more costly, we’ll have to see over the last month of the season.
Hope is the thing with feathers
And thankfully, owl do indeed have feathers. We thankfully have a rest period for the next week and a half. Hopefully the team can recover from some of the knocks picked up over the last stretch of games during that time. Then we end the season with the following:
at North Carolina FC – Currently sitting in last place but with games in hand, they could be eliminated from playoff contention by the time we next play the if they fail to pick up points in the two games they have before then. The last time in the Research Triangle area was a draw (and a bit rainy, from personal experience) but the team is hopefully fired up to put in a shift for our last regular season away game.
vs South Georgia Tormenta – They are an improved team this year and currently the only opponent left in a playoff place. They open up their new stadium (maybe finally?) against Richmond the week before. That could be a taxing experience in that game with the expectation it will most likely hold, so we’ll see how they are feeling come the next week for our game. As afterwards they end the season home against a Red Wolves team they are currently jockeying for position with.
vs Central Valley Fuego – This one is going to be interesting, as currently they have games in hand that will help decide if they will be a playoff contender come this last game. However, they also get 10 days off before playing us, as they are the team left out having to play the second to last weekend of the season. It’s a bit too early to tell how that’s going to set up this game.
Making playoffs is not a given, but very likely (as it could even happen this weekend without us playing). Getting a home playoff game is not a given, but is a good goal to shoot for. And if we can turn things back around, the #2 seed is even possible as well. We should probably be a bit more realistic in how we can recover from this run and just look towards a home playoff spot… but … hope is the thing with feathers, and never stops, at all.
Who Gives A Hoot? 