This Data Dive is going to be a bit different from normal, it’s actually going to only break down a single topic. It’s the same topic that I qualified on the podcast this past week. That issue: That winning two games in a row with a red card in each game was rare. I mentioned that it would be a lot of work to actually check that to assure if it has or hasn’t happened before….. so that’s what my week ended up being. Let’s examine how rare that could be!
Firstly, two red cards in consecutive game
How often does it happen that you get two red cards in consecutive games? That’s pretty rare on its own. I’m going to look at data from the last 4 seasons (2019 – 2022). Why 4? Because it’s the number of seasons USL League 1 has existed. I’ll be using data from USL1, USLC, and MLS to look through (sorry NISA) and see what has all happened in the past 4 years.
USL1 has had 17 times where teams have gotten reds in back to back games. For USLC, that number is 28 and MLS it’s 16. Well, sort of. As there have been times in those leagues where teams have gotten reds more than 2 games in a row!
Teams have received reds 3 games in a row 3 times in MLS and 6 times in the Championship. Not only that, there have been 2 times in the last 4 years that USLC teams received a red 4 games in a row. Loudoun in 2019 went 1-3 in those 4 games. New York Red Bulls 2 matched that mark earlier this year, also going 1-3 in 4 straight games with a red.
Secondly, how many of those are two wins in a row?
As you can get a sense for above, many of these games are going to be losses. According to a statistic (taken from what looks like a Motivational Speaker site, so maybe taken with a grain of salt) only < 25% of games where a team receives a red card do they win. That does tend to reflect the data I’m seeing for multiple games in a row with a red card though, as wins happened about 22.7% of the time in this set of games compared to 18.2% for draws and 59.1% for losses.
Winning two of those games in a row, though, is definitely rarer. It’s happened in the cup this year, with Inter Miami getting two wins in a row while receiving a red in each game (though the opposing teams also did as well in those games).
It’s also happened in League 1 before. So, alas, we are not the first to this particular mark. That falls to… you guessed it, Greenville. In 2021 Greenville beat Toronto 2 and Red Wolves, getting a red in each game. The Chattanooga game also had a Red Wolves red card and the one in the Toronto 2 game was a very late card, essentially after the win was wrapped up already. A number of others were like those games, either a late red card or something else also happened against the other team. There were only 3 times in total that it happened throughout league play for the 3 leagues in a 4 year span.
It hasn’t happened in MLS, but has in the Championship. San Diego Loyal, earlier this season, scored a winning goal when both teams were down a player and then won a game down a player. Also, back in 2020 Charlotte Independence played in the Championship and beat two teams in a row, though they won one of the games while even and then only lost a player very late. So that leaves us to that last question.
Finally, what about two wins in a row from non-winning positions when the red cards were issued?
This, what we did against Madison this past week, is the first time it has ever happened in USL League 1. Going back to 2019, it never happened in MLS or the USL Championship. So for specifically the case where teams were down a player, this was the first time in at least the past 4 years it has happened in either of these leagues. That is just how rare last week was for not only us, but in respect to the game of soccer in general.
Now, lets see what we can do on the fun 4-game stretch ahead! I wonder if you can tell who we play…
Who Gives A Hoot? 