Week 25 Sneak Peek

            Welcome to Week 25, Búhos nation.  There’s only five weeks left in the regular season and the playoff race is heating up.  USL League One has five matches this weekend and each has its own set of intrigue.  Before we jump into the match previews, let’s take a look at the standings:

	Club	Mov’t	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1.	Chattanooga	↑1	22	10	10	2	32	21	11	40
2.	Union Omaha	↓1	20	10	8	2	28	15	13	38
3.	Greenville	–	22	8	7	7	30	28	2	31
4.	FC Tucson	–	22	8	6	8	34	33	1	30
5.	Tormenta	–	24	8	5	11	31	35	-4	29
6.	New England II	↑3	21	8	4	9	29	32	-3	28
7.	Forward Madison	↓1	20	6	10	4	23	23	0	28
8.	Ft. Lauderdale	↓1	23	7	6	10	33	38	-5	27
9.	North Texas	↓1	22	6	9	7	30	28	2	27
10.	Toronto FC II	↑1	22	6	8	8	26	28	-2	26
11.	Richmond	↓1	21	6	7	8	25	27	-2	25
12.	North Carolina FC	–	21	5	4	12	24	37	-13	19

Mov’t – Movement in the standings from Week 24 to Week 25.

MP – Matches played

MATCH 1

Richmond Kickers (6-7-8, 11^th Place) vs Toronto FC II (6-8-8, 10^th Place)

City Stadium, Richmond, Virginia

Saturday, September 25^th @ 5:30 (CST)

            Their stats in the leaderboard to show much of a difference between the clubs, but once you look a little deeper, their identities really start to show themselves.  Toronto is winless in their last five, but don’t start to count them out of contention for this match, or the playoffs.  The Young Reds just finished a tough run in the schedule, facing the top three clubs in consecutive weeks.  With the help of recent loan Jacob Shaffelburg, this club is looking to right the ship and make a run for the playoffs.  Toronto FC II is a equipped with a squad to leaving you chasing their passes for the entire match.  The team ranks 1^st in overall passes, is also tied for 1^st in passing accuracy, and has playmakers like Garrett McLaughlin, Luca Petrasso, and Kobe Franklin to give opponents headaches.

            There’s no sleeping on Richmond, either.  The Kickers have a golden boot contender, Emiliano Terzaghi, and a golden glove contender, Akira Fitzgerald, on their roster.  Getting the ball past Fitzgerald is hard enough, but then you have to think of the two defensive stalwarts: Ivan Magalhães and Jalen Crisler.  Together, they’ve cleared over 160 threats and currently sit in third and fourth, respectively, in clearances in the league.  Moving up the field, midfielder Zacarías Correa is the chance creator for the club.  He may play defense, but Nil Vinyals is a close second for chances created for the Kickers.  And don’t even start to think the threats end on the field.  The Richmond Kickers regularly draw healthy crowds to their matches and make some noise, too.

Three reasons why the Richmond Kickers will win:

1. In ten home matches this season, they conceded a total of 9 goals.
2. Their only loss at home came on April 24^th.  The club is undefeated at home beyond that loss.
3. Emiliano Terzaghi.  The man is not only a threat with his goals (12 on the season), but also his physicality (7 yellow cards) and his ability to draw defenders out of position and open up the field for his teammates.

Three reasons why Toronto FC II will win:

1. In the two previous matches between these two clubs at City Stadium, Toronto FC II is undefeated.
2. The last time Richmond defeated Toronto FC II was back on July 26^th, 2019.
3. Richmond’s last win at home this season was July 31^st, almost two months ago.

This match will be interesting to watch because both clubs are looking to jumpstart their hopeful runs to the playoffs.  Both have a legitimate chance, but three points starting now are must-haves. 

MATCH 2

Chattanooga Red Wolves (10-10-2, 1^st Place) vs New England Revolution II (8-4-9, 6^th Place)

CHI Memorial Stadium, Chattanooga, Tennessee

Saturday, September 25^th @ 6 PM (CST)

            Remember that time that one team returned home from a match earlier this season in Chattanooga with three points?  Me neither.  The Red Wolves are ferocious at home.  If any club hopes to defeat Chattanooga at home, they can’t just bring their A-game.  They have to bring the A-game’s A-game.  With six matches left to their season, two at home (including the match this Saturday), and Union Omaha right on their heels, you can bet they’ll come out swinging.  Chattanooga wants home field advantage in the playoffs and they need widen that lead on Union Omaha to do so.  Don’t be surprised if future commercials for the Baby Revs feature Sarah McLachlan’s songs.

            If this is a David vs. Goliath type of a match, then New England is happy to call themselves Goliath, even if you won’t.  The Baby Revs have seven clean sheets so far this season, tied for second in the league.  These guys also like to shoot a lot.  The club leads the league in shots (306).  They’re also ranked fourth in passing, tied for third in passing accuracy, and have tallied the highest amount of successful dribbles in the league.  Just like their moniker suggests, they’re a militia hell bent on bring guerilla warfare to the soccer field.  They’re going to keep the ball on the ground, suffocate the opposition with their possession, use all areas of the field, and pepper the goal with shots.  New England currently sits on the fringe of playoff contention and don’t want their last season in League One to end unceremoniously.  Move aside doubters because they’re only looking for bettors.

Three reasons why Chattanooga will win:

1. The Red Wolves average a goal against them at home.  Teams have only scored more than one goal against them on two occasions while at home, as well.  On attack, Chattanooga has nearly doubled opposing goals across all home matches.
2. In three previous meetings between the two clubs, New England II has never defeated Chattanooga.  The Red Wolves have nearly tripled New England’s goal count (8-3) across those matches, too.
3. The Baby Revs haven’t won on the road in 98 days.  They also have more losses on the road than wins and draws combined.  That’s means only 8 out of a possible 27 points on the road.

Three reasons why New England will win:

1. Chattanooga isn’t exactly stellar against teams that like to pass the ball.  Here are the top five passing clubs in the league: Toronto FC II, Tormenta, Ft. Lauderdale, New England II, and Forward Madison.  Chattanooga has played these teams seven times so far this season.  Their record: two wins, four draws, and one loss.
2. It’s no secret that Chattanooga likes to cross the ball.  They rank fourth in the league in successful crosses.  New England II, however, likes to win aerial duels.  When looking at defenders who have played in ten or more matches this season, they’ve won nearly two-thirds (64%) of their aerial duels.  Couple that with the fact that New England goalkeeper Joseph Rice saves 72.3% of the shots on goal and you have a tough defense.
3. The Red Wolves rank first in fouls conceded and are tied for first in yellow cards received this season.  This will provide plenty of set pieces for New England II.  With as much possession and as many shots as the Baby Revs normally have in a match, this will simply be another weapon in their arsenal.

A match like this has all of the ingredients for an upset.  It will be interesting to see how each side planned for the match.  Both teams are hungry, so fans and viewers will certainly enjoy this one.

MATCH 3

Forward Madison (6-10-4, 7^th Place) vs. Greenville Triumph (8-7-7, 3^rd Place)

Breese Stevens Field, Madison, Wisconsin

Saturday, September 25^th @ 7 PM (CST)

            If you’re looking for a barn-burner, keep looking.  This one is going to be like an on-going card game of War: something good may happen from time to time, but a winner will seemingly never be decided.  In six matches between these two clubs, four ended in a draw.  The average goal count for both sides is less than a goal per match, as well.  Here’s the positive with a match like this: these two clubs are evenly matched and will show a lot of heart for the full 90 minutes.  Call me crazy, but I actually enjoy low-scoring affairs.  You get to see how each side changes their tactics.  I like watching two sides scrap and battle for every inch, every pass, and every shot on goal.  That builds the tension to the very end.

            Greenville seems to have one foot in the playoffs and they aren’t looking to share that comfort with anybody else, especially someone who decide what they’re going to the party.  The reigning champion hasn’t had the same season as last year, but that doesn’t mean their aspirations are any different.  They still have goal-scoring machine Marios Lomis, who is tied for first in goals this season.  Dallas Jaye, last year’s Golden Glove winner, is still minding the net for the Triumph and has five clean sheets to his name.  They are still a well-coached team and can achieve good results against high-ranking opponents.  In fact, the Triumph have played one of the current top-3 teams six times and only lost one of those matches (I’m including fourth-placed FC Tucson since Greenville is currently in third place).  As far as they’re concerned, they’re still the champion and they intend on keeping it that way.

            After Week 24, Forward Madison slipped under the playoff dividing line and they’re ready to wreak havoc in order to get back to the adults table.  Just like last season, they’ve established Breese Stevens Field as a formidable place for opponents to earn points.  Their passionate fan base show up and make noise for the whole match.  The club has only lost two matches at home.  The Flamingos are averaging a goal per home match, all while keeping the opponents average to less than a goal per home match.  They’re able to achieve this with all of their quality passing (fifth in the league for passing and tied for first in passing accuracy).  It doesn’t hurt having a tandem like Jake Keegan and Ryan Sierakowksi, either.

Three reasons why Greenville will win:

1. When playing on the road and the score is separated by a single goal, Greenville won 75% of those matches.
2. Half of Greenville’s clean sheets happened while the team was playing on the road.
3. These two clubs have been going head-to-head since 2019 and Forward Madison has yet to win a match.  Furthermore, the only goals that Forward Madison has scored in the series came in the same match, which ended up as a tie.

Three reasons why Forward Madison will win:

1. Aside from their loss to North Carolina FC on August 25^th, you’d have to go back to July 10^th to find their other, most recent loss.  The last time they lost at home was back in June.
2. Forward Madison is tied for second in the league for fewest goals conceded while playing at home.
3. Greenville has only scored one goal in Breese Stevens Field, back on August 28^th, 2019.

I think this will be the closest match of the weekend.  The true soccer fans inside Breese Stevens will be sitting on the edge of their seats.  That should be a fun atmosphere, riddled with anxiety, but still fun.

MATCH 4

North Carolina FC (5-4-2, 12^th Place) vs. North Texas SC (6-9-7, 9^th Place)

Sahlens Stadium at WakeMed Soccer Park, Cary, North Carolina

Sunday, September 26^th @ 1 PM (CST)

            What better way to end Week 25, than the last installment of “The Battle of the North’s”?  North Carolina FC has gone through quite the transformation as the season has progressed.  In their first five home matches, they only won one and lost four, with a goal differential of -4.  Their last five home matches have given them three wins and two losses, with a goal differential of 2.  This is a club that has earned respect and deserves careful planning from opposing clubs.  They may have the slimmest of chances to make the playoffs, but that allows them to be the spoiler.  You know who deserves spoiling?  The guys who don’t want to play in this league next year.

            North Texas gave Union Omaha quite the battle when they hosted the Owls last week.  The problem is they were the host.  At home, they’re a lion.  On the road, they’re a lamb.  They’ve played 11 matches as the away team and only won one of those matches.  Out of a possible 33 points, they’ve only managed to collect 7.  Want more stats?  I gotcha covered.  At home, they’ve scored 22 goals and conceded 10.  On the road, they’ve scored 8 goals and let in 18.  If North Texas wants to make the playoffs, they need to reverse their results on the road.  They only have three home matches and three away matches left in the season.  If all three of those away matches are losses, they don’t have a very good chance of playing past October.

Three reasons why North Carolina will win:

1. North Texas is winless in their last eight matches.  The only road win they’ve earned was back on August 7^th.
2. There have been six occasions where North Texas played a playoff team (top 6 in the league standings at the time) and then the week afterward, they would play a team below the playoff threshold.  Out of those six matches, North Texas only managed to win one.
3. North Texas has only scored two goals in their last five away matches.  They’ve been held scoreless in the last three away matches.

Three reasons why North Texas will win:

1. In the 10 home matches for North Carolina FC, their opponents are scoring, on average, two goals a match.
2. North Texas defeated North Carolina just over a month ago with a score of 4-0.
3. North Texas has played three matches on a Sunday, winning two of them.  In those three matches, they scored seven goals and only allowed three.

Well, I hope you all are excited for another great week of League One play.  Be on the look-out for the Union Omaha preview.  That should coming out in just a little bit.  Since you’re done reading this article, check out some of the other great material that Who Gives A Hoot has to offer.  A new episode of the podcast was released today, so go give that a listen.