There are five weeks left in the USL League One regular season and a lot of people are wondering how the playoffs will look. There are teams positioning themselves for a first round bye, many more teams fighting to stay in the hunt, and then there are the wayward ones who hope to become a blip on the radar before the final whistle blows in Week 29. Below, I’ve done the math to sort out the playoff necessities and what their remaining strength of schedule looks like. If you need a reference to the USL League One playoff format, you can find more information about tiebreakers, home field advantage, and more here.
First off, let’s look at the current standings in League One:
| Club | Mov’t | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | |
| 1. | Chattanooga | ↑1 | 22 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 40 |
| 2. | Union Omaha | ↓1 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 38 |
| 3. | Greenville | – | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 31 |
| 4. | FC Tucson | – | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 30 |
| 5. | Tormenta | – | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 29 |
| 6. | New England II | ↑3 | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 28 |
| 7. | Forward Madison | ↓1 | 20 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 28 |
| 8. | Ft. Lauderdale | ↓1 | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 27 |
| 9. | North Texas | ↓1 | 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 27 |
| 10. | Toronto FC II | ↑1 | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 26 |
| 11. | Richmond | ↓1 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 25 |
| 12. | North Carolina FC | – | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 19 |
Mov’t – Movement in the standings from Week 24 to Week 25.
MP – Matches played
Pts – Points
MR – Matches remaining
HPPT – Highest Possible Points Total
There’s a bit of a variation amongst the clubs as far as matches played. In the remaining five weeks, some clubs will only have to play four matches, while others will have to double that count and play eight matches. So even though you see South Georgia Tormenta in 5th place, it doesn’t necessarily mean that’s where they’ll end up at the end of October. Now that we have the current standings, we know that each club’s current point total is the absolute minimum that each club will have at the end of the season. Next, let’s look at the highest number each club can earn and see how that affects the playoff picture.
| Club | MP | Pts | MR | HPPT | |
| 1. | Union Omaha | 20 | 38 | 8 | 62 |
| 2. | Chattanooga | 22 | 40 | 6 | 58 |
| 3. | Forward Madison | 20 | 28 | 8 | 52 |
| 4. | Greenville | 22 | 31 | 6 | 49 |
| 5. | New England II | 21 | 28 | 7 | 49 |
| 6. | FC Tucson | 22 | 30 | 6 | 48 |
| 7. | Richmond | 21 | 25 | 7 | 46 |
| 8. | North Texas | 22 | 27 | 6 | 45 |
| 9. | Toronto FC II | 22 | 26 | 6 | 44 |
| 10. | Ft. Lauderdale | 23 | 27 | 5 | 42 |
| 11. | Tormenta | 24 | 29 | 4 | 41 |
| 12. | North Carolina FC | 21 | 19 | 7 | 40 |
This table is highly informative for many reasons. First off, it shows the maximum number of points each club can earn by the end of the season. It’s impossible for every club to reach their number because there will be losses and draws along the way. If you start looking at the maximum points a club can earn, you can start to see the so-called “magic numbers.” For instance, if Union Omaha wants to lock up home field advantage for the entirety of the playoffs, they need to earn 59 points or more, assuming Chattanooga wins the remainder of their matches. If Union Omaha and Chattanooga want to secure a first-round bye in the playoffs, they have to earn 53 points or greater. Since the highest point total that Forward Madison can achieve is 52, the top two teams simply have to earn more than 52 points to lock in those positions. This works for the next four playoff positions, as well. Since Richmond can earn a maximum point total of 46 points, if other teams want to secure a place in the playoffs, they need to earn 47 points or higher. Next, let’s take a look at remaining strength of schedule.
Each club will have their challenges through the end of October, but which clubs will have it easier, or harder, than the others? Here’s a table with the average points earned per match for each club in League One. I’ve gone the extra step to calculate the points earned per home match, as well as away matches. This will come in handy in just a bit.
| Clubs | Overall Pts/match | Home Pts/match | Away Pts/match | |
| 1. | Union Omaha | 1.90 | 2 | 1.83 |
| 2. | Chattanooga | 1.82 | 2.17 | 1.40 |
| 3. | Greenville | 1.41 | 1.46 | 1.36 |
| 4. | Forward Madison | 1.40 | 1.73 | 1 |
| 5. | FC Tucson | 1.36 | 1.55 | 1.18 |
| 6. | New England II | 1.33 | 1.67 | 0.89 |
| 7. | North Texas | 1.23 | 1.82 | 0.64 |
| 8. | Tormenta | 1.21 | 1.39 | 1 |
| 9. | Richmond | 1.19 | 1.70 | 0.73 |
| 10. | Toronto FC II | 1.18 | 1.60 | 0.83 |
| 11. | Ft. Lauderdale | 1.17 | 1.33 | 1 |
| 12. | North Carolina FC | 0.91 | 1.2 | 0.64 |
While this table shows you which club is averaging the most points per match overall, it also gives you insight as to how each club is performing at home and on the road. Union Omaha may have the overall average (due to less matches played) and road average, but Chattanooga is outperforming at home. Meanwhile, North Carolina FC finds itself at the bottom of each category (tied for last in the away category, but still). Now that we have these numbers, it’s time to start jumping down the rabbit hole to start calculating that strength of schedule.
Below is the table showing exactly how the strength of schedule was calculated. Using the numbers in the previous table, we can piece together which club has the toughest road to the end of October.
Alright, so that’s the dirty work. As you look at each club, you’ll see their remaining schedule and the average amount of points earned by their opponent at home or on the road. Instead of going off of the overall average, this gives us a better look into how each opponent performs, given the circumstances. Some clubs have an advantage hosting their opponent because the visiting club has a lower average point total on the road. I’ll include another table below to clean up the results and make it easier to read.
| Club | Opponent avg pt/match | |
| 1. | Forward Madison | 1.59 |
| 2. | New England II | 1.52 |
| 3. | Tormenta | 1.48 |
| 4. | Greenville | 1.37 |
| 5. | Richmond | 1.37 |
| 6. | North Carolina FC | 1.36 |
| 7. | Ft. Lauderdale | 1.34 |
| 8. | Chattanooga | 1.30 |
| 9. | North Texas | 1.26 |
| 10 | Toronto FC II | 1.22 |
| 11. | Union Omaha | 1.14 |
| 12. | FC Tucson | 1.12 |
Forward Madison looks to have a rough road ahead of them. Their high number comes mostly from having to play five straight away games against teams who have fared well at home this season. They finish off the season with back-to-back home games, but even those opponents are high in the playoff race. FC Tucson looks to have the easiest road to the end of the regular season. This is due in part to the fact that their four remaining home matches are against some of the clubs with the worst average points on the road. As for the race to the top spot, it looks like Union Omaha has a slight advantage over Chattanooga. If you’re looking for some drama in the middle of the table, keep an eye on Toronto FC II. With an easier opponent load and four home matches, they could easily climb the table and make things interesting.
I’ll keep you updated on the playoff race each week until the end of the regular season, so keep checking back for more reading material. The playoff race is heating up, so make sure you keep up to date on all things Union Omaha related and maybe a dab of USL League One info here and there, too.
Who Gives A Hoot? 