I know, it’s been a while since I’ve published my League One ratings. Work, combined with a road trip and getting my college football model ready for this year put me behind. But I’m here now, and a lot has happened since these ratings were last published. So below are not just the current ratings, but also what they were the last time I gave an update:
| Team | Rating (08.29.2021) | Previous (07.29.2021) |
| Union Omaha (8-7-2) | 1.868 | 2.104 |
| Chattanooga Red Wolves (8-9-1) | 1.550 | 1.533 |
| North Texas SC (6-7-5) | 0.997 | 0.079 |
| Forward Madison (5-9-4) | 0.869 | 0.824 |
| Toronto FC II (6-7-6) | 0.630 | 0.253 |
| Richmond Kickers (6-7-6) | 0.484 | 0.254 |
| New England II (7-3-7) | 0.297 | -0.253 |
| Greenville Triumph (6-6-7) | 0.256 | 1.082 |
| FC Tucson (6-4-8) | 0.100 | 0.335 |
| Fort Lauderdale CF (7-4-9) | 0.031 | 0.058 |
| South Georgia Tormenta (7-3-11) | -0.488 | -0.503 |
| North Carolina FC (4-4-10) | -0.835 | -0.777 |
So most teams saw little movement, likely because of all the draws we’ve had recently. North Texas, unsurprisingly, saw the biggest move up. They’ve not only played six matches since the last update, but haven’t lost any of them. Greenville had an inverse North Texas run, having played five matches since the last update and not having won any of them. We also seem to be seeing a little more separation in the middle now, which defends the theory that while the middle of the table may appear to be a jumbled mess containing 75% of the league, we still sorta know which of those teams are truly fighting for playoff spots, and which teams are named South Georgia Tormenta.
Seeing ten teams with positive ratings only reiterates the point I made before, which is that I might want to consider adjusting how draws are pointed next season. I will obviously not alter the formula in the middle of the season, but I still think seeing these ratings in a format that uses the highest and lowest rated teams as a range is an interesting evaluation method. This helps compare teams not only to each other, but also trying to decipher which teams are closer to “average”. Here’s what that looks like this week:
| Team | Adj. Rating |
| Omaha | 1.3515 |
| Chattanooga | 1.0335 |
| North Texas | 0.4805 |
| Madison | 0.3525 |
| Toronto | 0.1135 |
| Richmond | -0.0325 |
| New England | -0.2195 |
| Greenville | -0.2605 |
| Tucson | -0.4165 |
| Fort Lauderdale | -0.4855 |
| Tormenta | -1.0045 |
| North Carolina | -1.3515 |
This view somewhat agrees with my personal opinion of which teams I would be worried seeing in a potential playoff game. I honestly stop getting worried around the point we get to Richmond, however I personally have concerns going against a veteran goalkeeper like Akira Fitzgerald in a single playoff game. I will likely present this alternate view the rest of the year because it will probably be the basis of how I begin evaluating potential adjustments for next year.
Who Gives A Hoot? 