There is SO much to cover for this match that we don’t need a long rambling intro. Let’s dive in.
1) What does it mean that we lost to the best team in the league?
It will take a few parts to unpack this particular statement, but let’s start with (A) the idea that Chattanooga is the best team in the league. We can talk about things like “the table” or “best defense in the league” but this is #datadump so let’s use data from American Soccer Analysis to do that.
Starting with offense, Chattanooga has scored 28 goals from a xG of 28.38. We’ve scored 21 from an xG of 18.62. On defense, they’ve let in a league 2nd best 19 goals, but xG indicates they should have only let in 14.62. Compare this to our league best 12 goals on a 15.26 xG (we at #datadump stan this defense). Combine these two numbers and you have expected goal difference. Chattanooga’s expected goal difference is a whooping 10.4 xG higher than ours, in reality they are the same.
The fine folks at American Soccer Analysis, believe Chattanooga should have earned 31.25 points this season as opposed to the real 32 points they have earned. Union Omaha has earned 24.56 expected points versus 30 point in real life. So this is where you say: “Ben, xG is not real life,” and I say, “I know, thank goodness.”
The point of all of this is that expected goal data indicates that, if anything, Chattanooga’s results are not as good as their underlying metrics and therefore they have UNDER performed this season. And we’ve over performed our metrics (again, we stan the defense). Since there are no other teams in this discussion, you’ve got to give the edge to Chattanooga being the best team in the league.
Speaking of edge to Chattanooga, (B) over 2 games this season they’ve really had our number. Sure last night we a bizarro lineup, but we some how performed better than when we played them at home. In the metrics I track, we did better than the first match in: time of possession, crosses, opponents crossing accuracy, chances created, opponents chances created, passing accuracy, xG, opponents xG, and, although meaningless, subs used. The only thing that was worse was our crossing accuracy, and, our course goals.
That said if you consider our season series a two legged tie, we lost 3.88 xG to 0.85 xG over the two legs. So, huge moral victory that we only lost 2-1 in real life. But, really big obstacle to the goal of winning a championship this season.
Speaking of winning a championship, let’s talk (C) the long term implications of this loss. SportsClubStats says this loss reduces our average seed in the playoffs by 15.4% from 1.3 to 1.5. There are 12 games left in the regular season. Let’s keep our eyes on the prize and be glad there is a maximum of one game against the Red Wolves standing between us and the championship.
2) Jamie Ponce!
It is a very rare Owls game where I start watching the game knowing any of the topics of #datadump, but given the wild formation in the back, I was able to watch with a couple of things in mind. The first was debutante Jamie Ponce, veteran of the Union Omaha Academy team, who was signed on Thursday and made his first start on Saturday.
From the eye test, I thought he did really well. He made one big mistake and a couple of small mistakes, but overall, incredible for an 18 year old kid none of us were aware of when we woke up Thursday.
I thought that the team worked hard to limit his touches and it shows up in the stats.
A few things stand out, first is how few passes Jamie had, especially compared to Emir. Clearly the plan was to not make him handle the ball a ton. Probably a good call for someone stepping into the bright lights. The second is the low passing accuracy, I noticed at least two balls passed out of bounds, but the big mistake was aggressively stepping up to close down a player that allowed their forward to get loose.
I love the aggression and confidence on display though. Overall, with the exception of a few passes out of bounds, he looked like a totally capable League One center back. Especially of note is the duels won, tackles, clearances and interceptions which was the best of all of our center backs on the night.Whatever happens going forward, he has secured his place in club history with a fantastic performance as our first academy player to start and play.
3) All hail King Tobias the Right Back!
Speaking of impressive defensive performances, how about Tobias deputizing at right back. He led all UO defenders in short passes, duels won, and tackles. His numbers look remarkably similar to a Ferrety performance at right back. Here are some heat maps
Tobias clearly covered more ground while being a bit more defensive, but that may have been a result him covering for Jamie on his professional debut. Either way, a true standout performance on the night for me.
What a wild game. The data indicates they a better team than us right now, but we have time to get healthy, find our best lineup, and beat them again in the playoffs. I can’t wait.
Who Gives A Hoot? 