This week’s ratings saw an unexpected seismic shift, as well as the introduction of an overall general look that I was expecting we’d see around this time. Here’s a quick look before I expand:
| Rank | Team | Rating |
| 1 | Union Omaha (6-5-1) | 1.975 |
| 2 | Chattanooga Red Wolves (6-5-1) | 1.579 |
| 3 | Greenville Triumph (6-4-3) | 0.958 |
| 4 | Forward Madison (4-5-3) | 0.793 |
| 5 | FC Tucson (4-4-4) | 0.507 |
| 6 | Richmond Kickers (4-4-4) | 0.492 |
| 7 | Toronto FC II (5-4-5) | 0.396 |
| 8 | North Texas SC (4-3-5) | 0.102 |
| 9 | Fort Lauderdale CF (5-3-7) | -0.074 |
| 10 | New England Revolution II (5-1-7) | -0.408 |
| 11 | South Georgia Tormenta (6-1-9) | -0.578 |
| 12 | North Carolina FC (1-3-7) | -1.049 |
| Rank Δ | Team | Result(s) | Rating Δ |
| 7 ↔ | Toronto | W 4-2 @ NC | 🔼 .269 |
| 12 → 11 | Tormenta | L 1-2 @ CRW W 3-2 @ GVL | 🔼 .256 |
| 6 → 5 | Tucson | W 4-2 v. NE | 🔼 .212 |
| 10 → 9 | Fort Lauderdale | D 1-1 @ RVA | 🔼 .155 |
| 4 ↔ | Madison | D 1-1 @ OMA | 🔼 .146 |
| 8 ↔ | North Texas | D 1-1 v. CRW | 🔼 .109 |
| 5 → 6 | Richmond | D 1-1 v. FTL | 🔼 .028 |
| 2 ↔ | Chattanooga | W 2-1 v. TRM D 1-1 @ NTX | 🔽 .019 |
| 1 ↔ | Omaha | D 1-1 v. MAD | 🔽 .152 |
| 9 → 10 | New England | L 2-4 @ TUC | 🔽 .274 |
| 11 → 12 | North Carolina | L 2-4 v. TFC | 🔽 .384 |
| 3 ↔ | Greenville | L 2-3 @ GVL | 🔽 .388 |
So, while it isn’t a change of ranking, the seismic shift is obviously Greenville. We’re officially in the territory now of them being considered a team in the upper-half of the middle tier, they need to get back in the habit of drawing tough games and winning at least 75% of the games their expected to win before they’ll be considered an elite team again. Here is to hoping they can get through their injury issues, because this year’s team has been a fun one to watch when their healthy. Some might argue this is fun to watch, but watching them concede three goals in 19 minutes to Tormenta is like not being able to look at a car accident.
Another thing you’ll notice is that now a full two-thirds of the teams in the league have a rating above zero. This was expected to happen eventually as more draws occur, because teams can’t score a negative rating for a match that ends in a draw. This was slightly delayed because, as you may remember, it took us until the fourteenth game of the season to have our first draw (we’re up to over 27% of matches ending in draws). This is also why we likely have what looks like this large tier of mediocrity.
For my predictive analysis, I’ve been using a method where I look at what proportion each team’s rating is from the range of the best and worst rated teams. While this won’t replace the current rating system, it may very well become a regular inclusion to these articles when I have more time to write these, and we don’t have to worry about pumping these out before midweek games begin. So, maybe almost never!
Who Gives A Hoot? 