Last week was an interesting one; multiple matchups where teams highly rated were pitted against each other, and a couple of teams with multiple matches that led to equally poor results. Here are the current USL League One ratings, followed by a summary from the previous week:
| Rank | Team | Rating |
| 1 | Union Omaha (6-4-1) | 2.126 |
| 2 | Chattanooga Red Wolves (5-3-1) | 1.652 |
| 3 | Greenville Triumph (6-3-2) | 1.394 |
| 4 | Forward Madison (4-4-2) | 1.090 |
| 5 | Richmond Kickers (4-3-4) | 0.372 |
| 6 | Toronto FC II (4-4-4) | 0.266 |
| 7 | FC Tucson (3-3-4) | 0.045 |
| 8 | Fort Lauderdale CF (5-2-7) | -0.245 |
| 9 | New England Revolution II (4-1-6) | -0.288 |
| 10 | North Texas SC (3-2-5) | -0.356 |
| 11 | South Georgia Tormenta (5-1-8) | -0.793 |
| 12 | North Carolina FC (1-2-6) | -0.942 |
| Rank Δ | Team | Result(s) | Rating Δ |
| 12 ↔ | North Carolina | D 0-0 @ TRM | 🔼 .448 |
| 3 ↔ | Greenville | W 3-0 @ NE | 🔼 .205 |
| 9 → 7 | Tucson | W 2-1 v. FTL | 🔼 .176 |
| 2 ↔ | Chattanooga | D 1-1 @ OMA | 🔼 .139 |
| 7 → 6 | Toronto | W 2-1 @ TRM | 🔼 .127 |
| 4 ↔ | Madison | W 1-0 v. NE | 🔼 .096 |
| 6 → 5 | Richmond | W 3-2 v. NTX | 🔼 .092 |
| 8 ↔ | Fort Lauderdale | L 1-2 @ TUC | 🔽 .123 |
| 11 ↔ | Tormenta | L 1-2 v. TFC D 0-0 v. NCFC | 🔽 .126 |
| 10 ↔ | North Texas | L 2-3 v. @ RIC | 🔽 .196 |
| 1 ↔ | Omaha | D 1-1 v. OMA | 🔽 .206 |
| 5 → 9 | New England | L 0-1 @ MAD L 0-3 v. GVL | 🔽 .780 |
So, some very unexpected results based on what transpired last week. North Carolina with the biggest rise after a draw at Tormenta? Omaha with almost the largest drop after drawing their best competition at home? Well, both of these scenarios can basically be explained in the same way: Union Omaha started their season so well, that a draw at home to Chattanooga not only is below average for them, it’s VERY below average for them. The same can be said about NCFC, only in the inverse. We’ll continue looking at Union Omaha as an example. Here are Union Omaha’s top and bottom three rated matches so far this season:
| Date | Opponent | Result | Rating |
| 05.07.2021 | @ Fort Lauderdale | W 2-0 | 4.144 |
| 6.06.2021 | @ Forward Madison | W 2-1 | 3.964 |
| 05.12.2021 | @ New England II | W 1-0 | 3.084 |
| Date | Opponent | Result | Rating |
| 06.02.2021 | @ Toronto FC II | D 1-1 | 1.455 |
| 07.02.2021 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | D 1-1 | 1.131 |
| 05.26.2021 | @ Forward Madison | L 0-1 | -1.346 |
Seeing individual game scores visually probably helps a good deal. Here are a couple individual points you can make from it:
- The draw against Chattanooga is now the match with the lowest rating being counted towards Union Omaha’s average, replacing the away draw against Toronto that was almost 0.35 points higher
- The match rating of 1.131 is slightly less than 50% of Union Omaha’s overall (average) rating at the beginning of last week
So, as I’ve been saying for the past few weeks, Union Omaha’s performance during their road trip to begin the season is nothing to sneeze at. It was so good that admirable performances at home are considered, as far as these ratings are concerned, as barely treading water, or even as slightly poor. This was bound to happen without some superhuman stretch, but we’ve likely seen the last of these kinds of games having these kinds of affects. The same can be said of North Carolina FC, as I briefly mentioned above. The start to their season was cumulatively so poor, that any semblance of success will probably alter their overall rating significantly, and possibly for the next couple weeks for them since they’ve still only played nine games.
I still plan on publishing weekly updates to these ratings, but I’m thinking we’ve reached the end of the stretch where we can expect seeing significant fluctuation week in and week out, not without some dramatic results like the one in Foxborough last Sunday. I’m interested to see how different the ratings are when you’re comparing them several weeks, or even a month apart. That might be the direction my next set of observations are going. Also, as promised, I’m also tracking exactly how predictive these ratings might be. You may have heard evidence of this during a recent episode of the pod! More to come on that potentially, but until then I hope you enjoy your week of not living and dying by a Union Omaha result as much as I hope to.
Who Gives A Hoot? 