After a week that saw more games played than any other week so far this season (not only did all 12 teams play, but all 12 played just during the weekend alone) I figured we were bound to see some wonkiness in the ratings. Not to mention, some teams reached that 8 match milestone as well. All in all, the league itself was pretty wild this past week. For example, do you realize the Jake McGuire punt into the stands in Greenville was less than a week ago as of the publication of this post? My goodness, a lot has happened. Let’s look at the updated ratings first, and then look straight away at each team’s movement.
| Rank | Team | Rating |
| 1 | Union Omaha (5-3-1) | 2.413 |
| 2 | Chattanooga Red Wolves (5-1-1) | 1.357 |
| 3 | Greenville Triumph (5-1-2) | 1.034 |
| 4 | Forward Madison (3-3-2) | 0.717 |
| 5 | Richmond Kickers (3-3-3) | 0.632 |
| 6 | Toronto FC II (2-4-3) | 0.300 |
| 7 | North Texas SC (3-2-3) | 0.243 |
| 8 | New England Revolution II (3-1-4) | 0.033 |
| 9 | FC Tucson (2-3-3) | -0.036 |
| 10 | Fort Lauderdale CF (4-2-6) | -0.326 |
| 11 | South Georgia Tormenta (5-0-6) | -0.381 |
| 12 | North Carolina FC (0-1-6) | -1.759 |
| Team | Result(s) | Change |
| Toronto | D 2-2 @ FTL W 2-1 vs. FTL | 🔼 0.846 |
| New England | W 2-0 @ MAD | 🔼 0.809 |
| Tucson | D 0-0 @ NTX | 🔼 0.464 |
| Tormenta | W 3-1 vs. GVL | 🔼 0.319 |
| North Carolina | L 1-2 @ GVL L 2-3 @ CRW | 🔼 0.114 |
| Richmond | D 1-1 v. OMA | 🔼 0.101 |
| Omaha | D 1-1 @ RIC | 🔼 0.054 |
| Chattanooga | W 3-2 vs. NC | 🔽 0.071 |
| Fort Lauderdale | D 2-2 vs. TFC L 1-2 @ TFC | 🔽 0.077 |
| North Texas | D 0-0 vs. TUC | 🔽 0.138 |
| Greenville | W 2-1 vs. NC L 1-3 @ TRM | 🔽 0.368 |
| Madison | L 0-2 vs. NE | 🔽 0.554 |
The most surprising results of the week were obviously Tormenta’s win against Greenville and New England’s win at Madison (both by two goals), so it’s no surprise that Greenville and Madison dropped the most this week. What’s a little more surprising is that Tormenta’s rise wasn’t as high as I thought it would be. Especially comparing them to Toronto, who rocketed up from their results this past week, but Toronto got to drop their worst result (a home loss to Tucson) and that gave them an additional boost.
Another slight surprise might be the fact that NCFC’s rating actually improved slightly. This is easy to explain; their rating was already so low, and losing two matches (away from Cary, the Rome of the American Southeast) by one goal to two of the three best teams in the league obviously shouldn’t lead to that big of a penalty when you’re already the worst team in the league. The results are also legitimately on par for them, they have lost all six of their matches by one goal this season.
Team positions in the middle of the table are starting to become very volatile, because the difference in ratings are so small. Seeing Tormenta still in 11th place might be frustrating given their current form, but they have made up much more ground than you might realize. It’s interesting looking at the gaps between each team, when you simply compare their rating versus that of the highest rated team. To do this, you can add the absolute value of the lowest rated team (which is NCFC this week, and perhaps in perpetuity) to each team’s rating and then calculate their proportion versus the highest rated team. Here is what that looks like at the moment:
| Team | % Of Top |
| Omaha | 100% |
| Chattanooga | 74.69% |
| Greenville | 66.94% |
| Madison | 59.34% |
| Richmond | 57.31% |
| Toronto | 49.34% |
| North Texas | 47.97% |
| New England | 42.93% |
| Tucson | 41.29% |
| Fort Lauderdale | 34.33% |
| Tormenta | 33.02% |
| North Carolina | 0% |
I think this table helps truly interpret the gaps between each team. Notice that it shows the gap between 1-2 is the same as the gap between 4-11. It might not be correct to say the gap between Omaha and Chattanooga is the same as the gap between Madison and Tormenta. In fact, I know it’s not. Omaha is going to have to continue with some really impressive results to maintain this level of separation, especially since they’re going to be playing at home more often. But it does help you realize just how close some of these teams are to one another, even if their separation by rank alone is great.
All of the above is perhaps evidence that supports releasing these ratings less often. But screw that, because content, baby! [Editor’s Note: YEAAAHHHHH!] Plus there are some big matches this week, with three of the top four teams playing three matches against each other (poor Greenville). I’m also going to start tinkering with how predictive these ratings can be, but that will take time and patience. I will update you if I feel comfortable with any of my findings. Until then, let the bantz and hot takes begin! Or not, you know, whatever.
Who Gives A Hoot? 