USL League One Ratings: Week 11

So, even though I waited until we were practically two months from the start of the season to release these ratings for the first time, I still had a feeling that at this stage of the season we’d see some wonky movement that seemed to go against the grain. And while, surprisingly, most of the things I mentioned in the “look ahead” portion of last week’s post sorta came to fruition, there were still some unexpected results. Let’s take a look at the current ratings before we dive in:

Rank	Team	Rating
1	Union Omaha (5-2-1)	2.467
2	Chattanooga Red Wolves (4-1-1)	1.428
3	Greenville Triumph (4-1-1)	1.402
4	Forward Madison (3-3-1)	1.271
5	Richmond Kickers (3-2-3)	0.531
6	North Texas SC (3-1-3)	0.381
7	Fort Lauderdale CF (4-1-5)	-0.249
8	FC Tucson (2-2-3)	-0.500
9	Toronto FC II (1-3-3)	-0.546
10	South Georgia Tormenta (4-0-6)	-0.700
11	New England Revolution II (2-1-4)	-0.776
12	North Carolina FC (0-1-4)	-1.873

Now, let’s take a look at how much movement there was between last week and this week to see if my analysis made any sense:

Current Rank	Team	Previous Rank	Result	Change
1	Omaha	1	W 4-2 v. NE	🔼 0.216
2	Chattanooga	4	W 3-2 @ TUC	🔼 0.398
3	Greenville	2	L 3-0 @ NTX	🔽 0.517
4	Madison	3	D 0-0 v. RIC	🔼 0.146
5	Richmond	5	D 0-0 @ MAD	🔽 0.095
6	North Texas	8	W 3-0 v. GVL	🔼 0.512
7	Fort Lauderdale	9	No game	🔼 0.170
8	FC Tucson	7	L 3-2 v. CRW	🔽 0.389
9	Toronto	6	L 1-0 v. TRM L 1-0 @ TRM	🔽 0.852
10	Tormenta	11	W 1-0 @ TFC W 1-0 v. TFC	🔼 0.717
11	New England	10	L 4-2 @ OMA	🔼 0.057
12	North Carolina	12	No game	🔽 0.207

So, most of what I was looking for somewhat came to fruition. Union Omaha didn’t see a whole lot of improvement, even from a two goal win in an incredibly entertaining, satisfying match. Richmond dropping slightly was kinda foreseen, as was the fact that North Texas stood to gain a whole lot with a good result, and that we’d see some movement from both TFC II and Tormenta with teams getting three points versus draws. But if you bothered to scroll all the way down, you’d notice that New England’s rating improved, albeit ever so slightly, even after a multi-goal defeat.

So how did something like this come about? Well, remember that this system is designed to constantly re-evaluate previous matches as the season progresses. Clearly, we’re still learning more about every team in the league (the pair of matches between Tormenta and TFC II, with some MLS guys getting reps for Toronto, stands out more than anything). But New England has now played Richmond, Omaha, and Fort Lauderdale twice, along with Chattanooga. Those teams combined to go 2-1-0 this past weekend, 3-2-0 if you double up Omaha and Richmond (since NE2 played each of them twice). This improvement likely lessened the blow for New England, after a result that was already going to be somewhat softened because their 2 goal loss was to one of the best teams in the league on the road.

So I hope that my look ahead table last week was beneficial, both to prepare for the slate ahead as well as evaluating this method in retrospect to determine it’s effectiveness. So, let’s keep with this cadence for now. Here is what we should look forward to this week:

Date	Home	Away	Quick Synopsis
06.16	Greenville Triumph (1.402)	North Carolina FC (-1.873)	This match is very similar to the Union Omaha match last weekend for Greenville, except Greenville are still another match away from dropping their outliers. They need to dominate this one, or else their climb back up will remain an uphill one.
06.16 & 06.19	Fort Lauderdale CF	Toronto FC II	Similar to TFC II’s pairing last week with Tormenta, this pair of matches will probably only move the needle if one side dominates the other by getting at least four points. Since Toronto have played fewer matches, they are more apt to see drastic movement. This series could telegraph how the rest of their season will go.
06.19	Richmond Kickers	Union Omaha	This is a very milquetoast matchup if you pause to think of everything going on here; a superior team on the road with a team that appears to be slightly above average. Since we’re still early in the season, my guess is that Omaha has more to lose and Richmond has more to gain.
06.19	Forward Madison	New England Revolution II	Madison needs this more as a bounce back. New England continue playing an incredibly difficult schedule, which is why a draw here will probably be a benefit to them.
06.19	South Georgia Tormenta	Greenville Triumph	Tough to gauge this one. Tormenta are on a bit of a hot streak, and Greenville will have a midweek game before this one. Tormenta stands to gain from this one with a result, and I imagine they’d solidify themselves in the middle of my ratings table if they get three points here.
06.19	North Texas SC	FC Tucson	Both of these teams are in the same boat, middling teams in a match where the slightly better team is hosting. This tells me that FC Tucson stands to gain more, unless North Texas can win by multiple goals.
06.20	Chattanooga Red Wolves	North Carolina FC	It probably doesn’t matter how NCFC does against Greenville midweek; if Chattanooga don’t get three points here, they will drop. NCFC are very much in their own tier, enough that even a draw should be a shock here (and a detriment to Chattanooga’s rating).

Enjoy this week’s slate of games. I hope that this enhances your viewing experience, and questions are always welcome in the comment’s section, on Twitter, and on any other social media platform. But if you have my phone number, please don’t call me. I may be old, but I’m not in my 40s just yet.