Since our season was prematurely cut short due to several positive COVID-19 tests, I have seen the question this question brought up. For those unaware of USL League One contracts, most players are on one year contracts with an option to be picked up for an additional year. This column will operate under the assumption that all players are on such contracts and are not guaranteed another year.
To make my predictions, I have decided to use statistics from unionomaha.com to help make this as objective as possible. We all have our favorite players for various reasons, but our hearts don’t always let us make the best decisions when it comes to keeping players. Not everything can be determined by statistics, which you will see when it comes to some of the players.
As you will see, it is hard to decide on certain players based on stats alone. I will also break this up by position groups, again based on how the team has them listed on the website. I think this offers some insight into positions of need moving into the 2021 season.
I will use the following verdicts:
- Lock: these are for players that should be considered guarantee resigning.
- Mixed: There is an argument to resign this player but don’t be surprised if they’re not back in 2021.
- Gone: these are for players that are likely not coming back next season at all.
For this week’s column I have decided to focus on one position group: Forwards. I am reviewing the players that are listed as Forwards and Midfielder/Forward. I am doing this to show my thought process on determining who to keep in this group.
Players listed as either a Forward or Forward/Midfielder alphabetically by first name:
Austin Panchot:
Austin appeared in 9 out of 16 games this season (starting only 1), playing a total of 156 minutes. Austin appeared in 56% of our games registering 3 total shots with 2 on target. That gives Austin a 67% accuracy on his shooting. Austin was also able to tally 1 goal this season.
The number of games you play don’t always tell the whole story, your ability to make an impact when you get the chance completes the picture. Austin played the least number of minutes of any outfield player this season, the only other player to play fewer minutes was Sam Howard. Looking at the number of minutes he was on the field, tells me two things:
- Austin was subbed on late most of the time AND
- Austin made great use of his time on the field.
2021 Verdict: Lock. I’m not going to lie to you, I was leaning mixed to gone with my verdict prior to looking at the statistics. Looking at this objectively though, how do you not bring back a guy that makes that type of impact with such little playing time? Imagine if we had played a full season! Austin is one of those players that we assume would be gone because he didn’t play much, but the reality is, he makes an impact when on the field.
Christian Molina:
Christian appeared in 11 out of our 16 games this season (starting 4), playing 419 minutes. He is listed as both a Forward and Midfielder on the team website and we mostly saw him lining up on the flank where Evan and Ethan typically were. Does it surprise you as much as it did me that Christian appeared in 69% of our matches this season?
During those 11 games Christian attempted 6 total shots, with 3 of those on target. For a player that is probably considered more of a Midfielder than a striker, a 50% accuracy looks great. I remember hearing that Jay told Christian to shoot more, looks like Jay was right. Christian did manage to score 2 goals and provided 1 assist.
2021 Verdict: Mixed. This may come as a surprise due to the number of appearances Christian made this season but hear me out.
Christian’s ability to play both midfield and forward/winger should absolutely be a reason Mims and company consider bringing Christian back. He looked dangerous at times and contributed to 3 total goals. If he comes back, he’s there as a sub to spell whomever started on the wing.
I can see the staff looking at the roster and seeing a few guys that fit this mold. This isn’t to diminish what Christian brought to the team this year, but sometimes tough decisions must be made. When you think super sub, which name comes to your mind first? I would guess it isn’t Christian Molina.
Elma Nfor:
Elma appeared in 14 out of 16 matches this season, appearing in 88% of our matches, playing 735 minutes. During his time on the pitch he started in 50% of those appearances.
I’m guessing most of you answered the “super sub” question I posed in Christian’s section with Elma Nfor. Subjectively, that is how I also viewed Elma, so it was a bit of a surprise to see that he started in 7 out of his 14 appearances. Elma was subbed off in 6 of the 7 starts he made, meaning he played the full 90 only once.
During those appearances Elma was able to register 21 total shots but only 5 of those were considered on target, around a 24% accuracy. This is not great for a player who is considered more of a Forward than a Midfielder. Elma was able to register a goal and an assist during his time on the pitch.
2021 Verdict: Lock. Another one that may surprise you when you read the statistics. Yes, Austin and Christian were more accurate than Elma. Christian even scored one more goal than Elma, but Elma is the anomaly to the statistical portion of this exercise.
Elma’s intangibles are what make him a lock for 2021. There is a reason you thought of Elma when I asked about super subs, it’s because Elma brings energy and chaos when he’s on the pitch, especially when he is brought on against opponents that are tired. Just look at Evan’s game winning goal on October 24th, Elma was on his back and was able to get the ball to Devin, who assisted Evan. This isn’t something we attribute to either Austin or Christian, and what makes Elma a lock for an extension in 2021.
Elvir Ibisevic:
Elvir appeared in 9 out of 16 total games or 56% of our total games this season. He tallied 270 minutes during those appearances. 3 of those appearances were starts. During those 3 starts, Elvir was subbed off 100% of the time.
Elvir did not seem to take advantage of the limited time he had on the pitch recording 6 total shots (less than a shot attempt per game). However, Elvir was accurate when attempting shots having 4/6 shots considered shots on target (67%). Unfortunately, Elvir was not able to create any goals, recording 0 goals and assists this season.
2021 Verdict: Mixed. Elvir was presumably signed because he played for Jay at UNO. He is still young at 22 years old, and he has time to find his shooting boots. When Union Omaha plays a full schedule, it will allow the time for a player to find his stride. Elvir has shown that he can be accurate when given the chance to shoot and likely needs more time on the pitch to find his groove. With the team not being at a full roster and Elvir being 1 of 2 true Forwards, it makes sense to bring him back for another season.
Elvir did not maximize his time given and I could see the coaching staff believing Elvir is surplus to the requirements while looking for an out and out goal scorer for 2021.
Evan Conway:
He scores his own wayyyyyyyyyyy! Evan Conway!
Evan quickly became a hero in Omaha scoring our first ever goal, our first game winning goal, and scoring the last goal of the season. He was also named to the USL League One First Team!
Evan appeared in, and started, every single match this season and played the 3rd most minutes on the team at 1,294. If they gave an Iron Man award, Evan would be our winner. Starts and appearances aren’t everything but there is a reason Evan was the ONLY player this season to start in every match.
Evan tied for the most total shots this season with 31. 14 of those 31 shots were on target, or 45%. 45% accuracy over 16 games is damn good. Evan also contributed with the most goals this season (6) and tied for the second most assists (2). Statistically speaking, Evan did what we expect Forwards/Wingers to do, he either popped them in himself or he set others up.
2021 Verdict: Lock. Was this one even up for debate? Evan is likely going to be one of the first guys offered an extension for 2021. Outside of a team from a higher league offering a boatload of money, expect to see our Number 11 flying up and down the pitch next season.
Juan Mare:
This first paragraph for Juan is going to look very similar to Elvir’s. Juan appeared in 9 out of 16 games this season for 56% of the games, Juan played a total of 237 minutes during those 9 appearances. Juan also started 3 out of those 9 appearances and was subbed off 100% of the time.
Juan managed 9 total shots, with 6 being on target for the same 67% accuracy that Elvir and Austin had. Much like Elvir, Juan was accurate when shooting but was unable to register a goal or an assist during his time on the pitch.
2021 Verdict: Mixed. Juan was brought in because he was young and had a lot of raw talent. I’m sure this season was frustrating from a personal perspective, considering his lack of minutes. Juan, much like Elvir, is young and hungry. Another year in Mims’ system will do him wonders. Same thought process here, Mims has several roster positions unfilled and only 2 players listed as pure Forwards. Juan was similarly accurate when on the pitch and during a full season would have more opportunities to show his skill.
Juan also did not maximize his time on the pitch, and I could see the staff looking towards greener pastures. Let me put it this way, don’t be surprised if we only see Juan or Elvir back next season.
Final score: 3 locks and 3 mixed.
The narrative all season for Union Omaha was the lack of goals scored. As you can see, our Forwards or Midfield/Forwards contributed to 10 of our 20 goals this season. At first blush that seems fantastic, but if we break it down it isn’t as great as we hope. 60% of those goals scored came from Evan Conway and none of them came from players that are seen as true, lead the line forwards. If Union Omaha wants to finish in a playoff position in 2021, they’re going to need more contributions from those players I was mixed on bringing back.
Let me know what you think! Do you think someone listed as mixed should be a lock? Or should they be gone? Should a lock really be listed as mixed?
Next time: Midfielders
Who Gives A Hoot? 