1) How badly does the team need to win this game?
At this point in the season, I’m having stress dreams about the team giving up goals after the 80th minute and Jay’s substitution patterns. I’d be more concerned, but I’m well aware that I’m obsessed with this team and our quest to make the final in our first year. Besides, I feel like we have a good chance to do just that. Accordingly, from here until it is no longer relevant, question one is going to be: how important is this game? Today I’ll answer with some data: it is important. Lose and we are 14% less likely to make the final, win and we are 10.7% more likely to play on Halloween according to sportsclubstats. The good news is on paper this is a very winnable game for us. Tormenta is a bit of a mess and their home form is about the same as away, meh. They’ve been averaging a point per game, but this is the perfect time for Los Buhos to pick up our second road win.
2) How does Jay handle the rotation of the team?
At this point, I’m just playing the ‘3 Questions’ hits sorry. Honestly though, I am trying not to fixate on lineup selection, but we have three matches in the next nine days, player selection is going to be different and important. Based on the last attempt at playing CRW, we know Jay is going to rotate a bit for a midweek game. But is he going to view the first match as the most important or is he going to look at the teams comparative strengths and play accordingly?
My preference would be rotated squad against Tormenta and regular lineup against Red Wolves. But that implies we would need a rotated squad again against Revs II. If you play the regular lineup at Tormenta and rotate at Red Wolves, then you can play the regular lineup again against Revs II.
It makes me a little itchy just thinking about it so, I’m happy to just wait to see what Jay does, instead of having to decide myself.
Here are a couple charts comparing us to our opponents for the next nine days.
While the Red Wolves are clearly the most potent offense and the sturdiest defense we will play, Jay played a rotated side against North Texas, a side he believes is the most talented in the league. So your guess is as good as mine. My only prediction on the subject is every player but Sam Howard, Brian Holt, and Manny Lira play in the next nine days and I bet Manny makes the bench against Revs II.
3) How do we generate offense?
Yes, this is in part a rotation question, but it is also a possesion/pressing question. Tormenta is the highest passing team in the league. They have completed, on average, 109 more passes than us per 90 minutes. Against possession heavy teams we’ve been happy to press and let them pass the ball around in their half of the field. We’ve then relied on solid attacking play on our part to score. But, we’re on the road. We might have some key offensive cogs on the bench. I’m worried about a 0-0 draw here. Where does the offense come from? Is this Dami’s time to get a return on his 2 chances created per game? Do we score on a set piece? Direct free kick? Win a penalty against the co-league leaders in red AND yellow cards? I don’t know, but you better believe I am going to watch to find out.
Who Gives A Hoot? 